OK NOW I have watched....Henne/Beck

I found the following comparison of Henne/Beck based on common opponents in the same years. Not my info as I found it in another thread in another forum, so haven't QCd it, but it offers some compelling insight. Enjoy.


ohn Beck................................Chad Henne
v. Notre Dame..........................v. Notre Dame

(9/04/2004).............................(9/18/2004)
W 20-17..................................L 20/28

7/10........................................25/40
96 yards..................................240 yards
9.6 yards per pass attempt..........6 yards per pass attempt
70% completion rate...............63% completion rate
0 touchdowns............................1 touchdown
0 interceptions........................1 interception



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John Beck................................Chad Henne
v. S.D. State............................v. S.D. State

(11/06/2004)............................(9/18/2004)
W 49/16..................................W 24/21

15/25......................................11/24
313 yards............................... 162 yards
12.5 yards per pass attempt........7 yards per pass attempt
60% completion rate...............46% completion rate
3 touchdowns..........................2 touchdown
0 interceptions........................3 interceptions




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John Beck................................Chad Henne
v. Notre Dame..........................v. Notre Dame

(10/22/2005)............................(9/10/2005)
L 23-49....................................L 10-17

26/45......................................19/44
317 yards................................223 yards
7 yards per pass attempt. ..........5 yards per pass attempt
58% completion rate...............43% completion rate
2 touchdowns.........................1 touchdown
2 interceptions..........................0 interceptions
1 rushing touchdown............ ...0 rushing touchdowns



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Final Matchup Stats

2-1..........................................1-2
48/80.......................................50/108
726 yards.................................625 yards
60% completion rate................46% completion rate
5 touchdowns...........................4 touchdowns
2 interceptions.........................4 interceptions
1 rushing touchdown.................0 rushing touchdowns
__________________

 

Thanks phin, or should I say dad!!!
Since I'm his mom, I agree with you all the way.
We've got quite a boy. He looks like my side of the family(atleast with a helmet on) tho'. LOL

 

It is only 3 games, however, they were three games against the same opponent. Often, people will compare overall stats between two players, which will quickly get you in trouble with things like "so and so had no talent on his team; they faced an easy schedule; they played in the MWC not the Big Ten; etc. Here we have two QBs facing the same team, which distills out much of the subjective variables and leaves less to sort out.

If anything, I would have expected Henne to do much, much better against these teams than Beck, as he would reasonably have had the better supporting cast. Yes, he was a year behind, and that does offer a confounding factor in the equation, but I can't do anything about that. However, you can take number of years of experience out of the equation and look at the two QB's overall stats over their entire college careers:
Name Games CP Yds Y/A TD Int Sacked

Henne 47 59.8 9715 7.0 87 37 90
Beck 43 62.4 11,021 7.8 79 34 71

So, you see that they're very similar over a much longer period of time as well, with Beck still having a little bit of an advantage with completion percentage and Y/A, and with similar TDs and Ints, but with alot fewer sacks taken. When the smaller sample agrees, generally, with the larger sample, one has to wonder if the level of competition faced by Henne was significantly better, or at least enough that it makes a difference on a relative scale. If it was better, you'd think that Henne's stats relative to Beck would jump significanlty for games in which they faced the same opponent. But they don't.

This wasn't intended to be the conclusive "end all" for this comparison, merely another piece of information to consider. It doesn't prove the positive that Beck is better than Henne, but it does offer strong evidence toward proving the negative that Henne is better than Beck, particularly when the theory is based in the argument that Henne's stats are more significant b/c he faced "far superior" competition. If anything, their career stats are a wash, and we'll only find out who's best when the cleats hit the field.

 

[ I do not think you have to worry about John Beck being the best he can be...the question is how far can his physical skills take him with bad mechanics?[/QUOTE

the question is can his mechanics be fixed by lee,,,really, has his mechanics improved with the work he put in this summer.
i don't care who plays either, as long as they perform well

 

I think the 3 game comparison among common opponents in the same years as hugely insightful. More so than just comparing stat sheets across a year in different programs and different conferences. Here we have john beck and chad henne facing the same team in the same year. I'm not sure of any other comparison that would be better.

then take into consideration supporting cast ...

 

As a BYU fan with no other NFL allegiance, I've been watching the Dolphins very closely recently, to see how Beck does.

I'm not going to interject myself into the discussion of Beck vs. Henne, because I am obviously biased.

Just a note - that Notre Dame game in 2004 was, I believe, Beck's first college start (he played a little the previous year and managed to get knocked out with a concussion at USC in his very first action).

That Notre Dame game was highly frustrating, because our former head coach (Gary Crowton) was enamored with the option. Early in that game (I think 1st quarter, but it could have been early 2nd), Crowton called an option play, and Beck got slammed by a Notre Dame linebacker. That was when he injured his shoulder (the injury that apparently changed his release point). Beck was out for several games as a result. It was also very frustrating because Beck was looking good in that first quarter.

Anyway, great thread.

 

I agree, statistics are very deceiving when looked at in the wrong light and with blind faith. Again, my intent was not to convince anyone either way, as I myself am not convinced by this information either, but rather to add another piece of information for everyone's review as they form their own opinions.

In my experience, statistics only tell the truth when you've looked at the "test" from every angle and accounted for every variable. As a scientist/engineer, I found this sample set of information particularly interesting b/c the smaller sample set (common opponent) exhibited a strong correlation with the larger sample set (entire careers), which allowed us to dismiss more of the confounding factors (level of competition; supporting cast; etc.) and bring this comparison as close to the light of "Henne vs. Beck" as we can get until we finally see them both on the same team, in the same game, at the same point in their careers. We'll get our answer this year, but for me, I just couldn't resist the temptation.

 

YEAH! THATS RIGHT, thats exactly what i was gonna say....lol

 

I actually wouldn't see that. what I notice is that his completion percentage is low. Really low. 53%. This may lead me to inquire if the coach told Henne or he took it upon himself to keep heaving it downfield. Resulting in less completion percentage but higher YPA. The higher YPA is only .5ypa for a 9 percent decrease in accuracy. That is not good.

 

You've done well to point out just how easily people can pull whatever stats they need to make their point, without offering the proper respect for what they really mean. In the case you illustrated, with freshman vs. freshman, Henne had the better YPA, yet when you take a larger sample size, Beck had the better YPA over the long haul, AND the better CP. That's sort of like a woman having both large breasts, beautiful face AND intelligence all in one...LOL.

 

St Louis, those stats seem just a bit out of place, John Beck is no longer a College player, a year in the NFL has mooted those things out, the only real measurement for him will be Practice on Field Play, what he did in College doesn't matter.

And I like John Beck, I want to see those Combine numbers (2nd best arm, 3rd best speed etc) translate into some plays, he ran a 4.7 40, let's see some of that....

 

I'm with you, college days are over, "Lets get ready to Rummmmbbbblllle!"

 

It's not like he played a year in the NFL...why do people insist on holding that over his head? He took snaps with the practice squad, not the first stringers, and played on a 1-15 team. How Beck can get all this negativity directed at him, and yet no one blames the team is beyond me. As far as I'm concerned, last year was meaningless and worthless when it comes to deciding how good John Beck is.

 

IMO scouting QBs is as much art as it is science. It can't just be reduced to stats. I like to use stats to confirm what I think I see. We are all vulnerable to bias so we can't always trust our lying eyes. With respect to Henne and Beck, my eyes told me that Beck was more accurate so I would expect that a stat check would show a higher comp. % for Beck and it did. If it had showed a higher comp. % for Henne than I would have looked for a reason. Better WRs, level of competition, bad decision-making, different systems or of course that my eyes lied. I find stats to be a great tool to ferret out my own biases and/or to improve my evaluation techniques. I see far too many posts where people cite unimportant criteria as proof that a QB will be good or bad.

The stats St.LouisFinFan provided (thanks BTW) confirm what I thought I saw. That talent-wise Beck is a step above Henne. Obviously, it's not conclusive proof. There could be some other factor that handicapped Henne or assisted Beck (especially in such a small sample) that I had not considered, but not knowing what I don't know, I expected Beck to outperform Henne and he did.

 

Padre, if you look at my earlier posts in this thread you'll see that I offered the stats for informational purposes only to those trying to compare Henne and Beck, and I even stated that the only real way to compare the two would be on the field, against similar opponents, with the same team. I reiterated several times that I offered this information for situational analysis, not as an end all.

 

Agreed Rafael. As I stated several times, these stats were to be taken with a bit of caution. I stated that while they couldn't tell us that Beck is better for the Dolphins, they could tell us that Beck and Henne were on the same plane in college, as made evident by the common opponents information coupled with the 4 year comparison information.

Also, as I pointed out, one of the more telling facets of this information is that they seem to discredit the myth that QBs from the Big Ten/SEC/ACC should somehow be given a pass for their failures while QBs from the "weaker" conferences have their accomplishments diminished, all in the name of "quality of opponent".

Once again: NOWHERE DID I CLAIM THAT THIS INFORMATION OFFERED CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE OF BECK'S SUPERIORITY; RATHER A POINT OF REFERENCE; FOOD FOR THOUGHT IF YOU WILL.