http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/24/2328349/a-miami-dolphins-dilemma-with.html Soliai will get $12.5M this year with the franchise tag. If that stays, and we want to franchise him again next year, he will cost $15M. If we go long term, it is believed he will cost around $10M a year, with $25M guaranteed. A pro-rated signing bonus will ease the cap hit, maybe by half this year, and allow us to sign other players. Will he be as good or better than his one good year or, will he revert back to what he was, an average at best player? Very tuff choice for Ireland.
If his agent thinks he's getting Wilfork money for 3 months work he's off his rocker. More then likely they'll get a long term deal done with a signing bonus in the $15 million range depending on the years involved. It won't be the sky high numbers from that article that's for sure.
Well, this is the price we pay for badly misjudging Big Paul heading into 2010, if we really think about it, Jared Odrick also was surplusage as the thinking was to move Starks to NT and Odie to take his place at RDE. Now we have 2 highly drafted young DE's who have a tough time seeing the field and a franchise tagged NT.
Due to his previous weight issues, and the fact that he's really only been a dominant NT for about 10 games in his career, I expect him to sign an incentive laden contract. He'll get something in the $15 million signing bonus range like as Van said, and the man is gonna get paid decently, but not super star money unless he earns it by meeting certain criteria.
At the end of the season, I was thinking a 5 year $35M deal, with $10M signing bonus, and incentives included. I thought that was fair. Now, the price of poker has gone up. Soliai has $12.5M guaranteed in his pocket. Barring injury or a very bad year, he will get another $15M guarantee next year. I've read where Aubrayo Franklin is expected to get at least $10M a year. Although guarantees were not mentioned, he is comparable to Soliai at this time. No matter what we do, we are rolling the dice.
I think the right answer might very well be letting Soliai walk, maybe even pulling the franchise tag off of him or if the cap room is adequate trying to trade him under the tag. Aubrayo Franklin is a better player than Paul Soliai. If the contracts are close, Aubrayo is a better option. He was more dominant than Soliai was last season, and has been playing at a high level for longer. He's 30 years old, but big space-eaters have some of the longest careers of any type of player, you can expect Aubrayo to play out a 4-year deal at a high level. Brandon Mebane is another option. He's been a dominant player, he's more of a 1-gap defender, but they were also willing to go with Starks at NT, and presumably use more 1-gap play from the line. He hasn't been as good with the Seahawks since they shifted him from a 1-technique to a 3-technique, so moving him to a 1-gap 3-4 position may be moving him back to his "natural" position.
That is a very interesting option, which has crossed my mind. Since Soliai signed the franchise, we cannot pull it back.
That's true, I didn't really think of that. Either way, you could trade him, and even if you didn't get a whole lot for it, you're a winner if you've replaced him with a better big money option.
Sign a long term deal or trade by deadline. One thing keeps popping in my head. What does the NT do in Nolan's version of the 3-4. With the Dolphins wanting to move Randy Starks to NT; does Nolan version of the 3-4 require a 355lbs space-eater or move of an active penetrating NT in the Jay Ratliff / Jason Ferguson mold?
See, that is the problem with just ditching Big Paul, the big fella can run down Rb's on the perimeter of the Defense at 350 pds, he is a unique talent. At the end of the day, I suspect they just pay the man to keep him, ahh, the joys of the 3-4, held hostage by a NT.
I think it's simple. You see how the guy weighs in and what kind of shape he's in. As we've discussed in that July 4th thread, Soliai was bragging about his new workout program with the other Polynesians in Utah, bragging about how his weight is down and what he plans on reporting at, etc. If you get him in this Wednesday and he was telling the truth, you do the deal. This is a guy that showed immense promise coming out of college but was extremely raw, and he's steadily gotten better every single year. I know some people see just one big leap between 2009 and 2010, but not me. He was better in 2008 than 2007, better in 2009 than 2008, better in 2010 than 2009, and if he really is in the best shape of his life as he claims (which should be easy to see come weigh-ins) then it's pretty reasonable to expect he'll be better in 2011 than in 2010. Once the Dolphins gave him that franchise tag and he signed it, he had $12.5 million guaranteed to him. He doesn't have the money in his pocket right now, but it's guaranteed to him. All franchise tenders are guaranteed once signed. That's LIKE getting a long term deal. He wouldn't get much more than that guaranteed to him in up front money if he'd signed a long term deal instead of a franchise tender. We've been on a lockout with no team supervision. He could have treated it like he reached the finish line. He got paid. And now there are no coaches to get on him about weight, so he can relax. That could have been his mind set. And still, maybe it was. We don't know until he checks in. But if he shows that he was telling the truth on the radio, then that's a huge sign of maturity from a guy that has at times struggled a little under the strict rules of this regime with respect to making weight (I do honestly believe Miami is more strict about these things than most teams). I think you do the deal, and I don't think you play around with guys that have been playing for different teams in different systems. You want to keep the guy that "beat the hell out of" Nick Mangold.
I think Nolan prefers a 2-gap base defense, but will use more 1-gap if it comes down to it. I've read that the Ravens switched from an initial 2-gap to 1-gap when he was there and the whole Ray Lewis whining about playing a 3-4 thing occurred. I would tend to think starting Starks at NT last season would have likely meant a similar shift, although the Bills game was a small sample size.
Nice responses so far. My take and yes I think in dollars and cents. If I can get the same level of effectiveness out of a two 6'4" 310 lbs NT's versus one 6'4" 355 lbs NT's. Then it's a no brainier. I'm not willing to let future player acquisitions be hamper a single contract. Now, If Big Paul signs for Dolphins friendly contract I keep him, however I doubt it. I keep thinking back to the Pornstache era of spending all of the available dollars on defense and limited the player selection on offense.
Imagine if, a year ago, anyone would have said that Soliai was was going to be paid more than Long, Marshall, and Dansby for this season.
If he plays improved again this year we might have to franchise him again next year. I can can see he agent drooling through his quote. On the bright side, he'll be a non exclusive franchise player that can still negotiate during F.A. if someone is desperate enough to take him from us with that tag then we would get 2 first rounders, if not we get a franchise NT. You can't just let the man walk away with out trying to get comp't.
You draft a guy in later rounds and hope he develops....he develops.......releasing him would be counter-productive.
