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QB perception isn't always what it seems. Supporting stats included.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Jul 30, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Only 1 QB drafted since 2005 has shown the ability to carry a struggling team on his shoulders when they're not playing well AS A TEAM. Not Matt Ryan, not Joe Flacco, not Josh Freeman, not Mark Sanchez, not Matt Cassel, not Kyle Orton, and not Kevin Kolb. When their respective teams played poorly, these QBs typically couldn't overcome it on their own; conversely, when their respective teams played well and ran the ball effectively, they won games. The greatest difference difference between their success and Henne's is----> the Falcons, Bucs, Ravens, Chiefs, and Jets routinely played better as a team and consistently ran the ball well where as Miami did not.

    Example:
    --Matt Ryan was a part of 6 game winning drives in 2010. Atlanta averaged 130 yards rushing in those.
    --Flacco was a part of 4 GWDs; Ravens averaged 131 ypg.
    --Freeman had a ground game that averaged 125 ypg during 5 GWDs.
    --Sanchez's ground game averaged 132 ypg during the Mark's 6 GWDs.
    --Cassel's ground game averaged 207 ypg during Matt's 2 GWDs.


    Miami's 9 losses: averaged 81 ypg rushing.
    Miami's 7 wins: averaged 131 ypg rushing.

    Jets 6 losses: 111 ypg.
    Jets 13 wins: 159 ypg.

    Falcons 4 losses: 61 ypg.
    Falcons 13 wins: 130 ypg.

    Ravens 5 losses: 80 ypg.
    Ravens 13 wins: 124 ypg.

    Bucs 6 losses: 107 ypg.
    Bucs 10 wins: 136 ypg.

    Chiefs 7 losses: 109 ypg.
    Chiefs 10 wins: 197 ypg.

    Broncos (2009) 8 losses: 82 ypg.
    Broncos (2009) 8 wins: 147 ypg.

    The only guy capable of carrying his team since 2005 is Aaron Rodgers.
    Packers 6 losses: 97 ypg.
    Packers 14 wins: 102 ypg.

    Respectfully, I wish fans would limit the irrational & pessimistic hatred toward Henne and understand that young QBs shouldn't be expected to have the ability to carry a team when things are falling apart.
    I wish fans would realize there are many external factors contributing to or affecting a QB's ability to succeed and prosper.
    I wish fans would stop using Dan Marino as the baseline for every QB who walks through the door.

    Ryan, Flacco, Freeman, Sanchez, Cassel, Kolb, and Orton can't do it all on their own yet, so why in God's name does half our fan base unreasonably expect Henne to be any different? When Miami plays well and runs the ball as effectively as the the aforementioned QB's teams do, Henne wins at an equal clip. Rather than bashing on young Henne for not carrying this team through a tough season, maybe we should be praying for us to play better as a whole while the ground game turns up the heat. That seems more conducive toward success than focusing on replacing Henne.
     
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  2. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I totally agree with you.
    Marinos only come once in a life time, I'm glad I got to see him.
    Thank you for documenting what was obvious watching the playoffs.
    By the way Rodgers sat for 4 years before he saw the field as a starter.
     
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  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The longer the explanation generally the worse the result that is being explained.

    As long as there is a chance we can trade for Kyle Orton I will champion such an effort.
     
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  4. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I really wish all the ground game and Dan Henning haters would cease their irrational and spiteful posting and finally understand football like I do.

    Or to put a little more bluntly: Can I have the old TP back? Pretty please.
     
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  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    who is this "old TP" you speak of? lol.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Here is the thing about Dan Henning..he made Jake Delhomme a successful NFL Qb, if one has ever had the opportunity to watch Delhomme play post Henning, one will understand what a feat of genius that truly was, Delhomme is lil Abner in shoulder pads..literally.

    So what happened with Henne? I suspect in 09 he simply inherited a good offense that Pennington had led, in 10 when it was "his" offense, the wheels came off.

    And allow me to add, if Mike Irvin is saying that his teammates do not respect him, and laugh at him when he tries to exert leadership, why oh why doesn't Henne receive the same treatment from "us" fans that similar things said about Vince Young elicited?
     
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  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Funny how every Chad Henne thread usually talks about everyone but Henne :dunno:
     
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  8. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Wait a minute. So you're telling me that there are other players on offense that determine the outcome of games, other than the QB?

    mind = blown.
     
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  9. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Maybe you've been a little late to the party, but the "old TP" used to be a place where people hung out, had an insightful talk or argument about football related things and generally didn't bother to label anyone who didn't happen to agree with their opinion as either a) an idiot b) less knowledgable or c) haters/fanboys. It was quite fun, actually.

    lol.
     
  10. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Stats are great but can be deceiving if not given within the context they were accumulated. For example, when teams have leads they run the ball. Hence, more ypg. When teams are behind they tend to abandon the run leading to less ypg. The QB play may or may not be the reason the team was ahead or behind. Would need to go more in depth looking at QB and team play to come to the conclusions made.
     
  11. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Three. And he did see playing time in the interim.

    More importantly, are people really going to argue that holding a clipboard for Brett Favre was a positive learning experience? I guess if you want to learn how to throw season-killing INTs, Favre's the guy to study under. Otherwise, watching Favre kill your team's season for three consecutive years has got to be more frustrating than instructive.
     
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  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Even some history, like "Bohemian Corporal"..:lol:

    OT, but on the bright side, at least the UK could have gotten better quality sausage.."bangers" are nasty.
     
  13. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Guaranteed Replies
     
  14. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    I'm sorry, your crendentials to criticize thephins posters are what? Sorry, I'm going to take the word of people who have double the number of posts you do, or who have more badges than you. Come back when you know something about posting on forums.
     
  15. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    I think sitting and learning the offence to be able to execute it having thoroughly learned it rather than playing and learning the O AND the nuances of the game is the benefit there rather than watching Burnt Fart.
     
  16. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Funny how someone will read a thread that discusses QB expectations and does some comparing among the young QBs & their team's success and immediately interprets it as a Henne thread. Go figure.
     
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  17. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    [​IMG]
     
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  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I don't recall the opening post saying a, b, or c.
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Simple logic.

    This was in the Miami Dolphins forum and you are the one who made the statement "The greatest difference difference between their success and Henne's is----> the Falcons, Bucs, Ravens, Chiefs, and Jets routinely played better as a team and consistently ran the ball well where as Miami did not."
     
  20. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Were the terms "homer" and "la de da" fans in wide use back then or is that fair game for you?
     
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  21. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Sarcastic?
     
  22. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    If he wasn't being sarcastic, imagine how inane he would be. I don't think I could suggest a fellow member on this board could be that bad off. I'm squarely in the camp of being sarcastic and using a straw man pointing to a perceived condescension by those who disagree with him.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I rewatched every Falcon & Dolphin offensive snap (and saw enough from the other teams) to know that Miami was horrible running on 1st down during much of the season. Absolutely horrible. Atlanta was the complete opposite.
     
  24. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    No way. "Henne-lover" stuff is just a fig newton of your imagination.
    Funny, I make an opening post that doesn't throw out insults yet somehow a) an idiot b) less knowledgable or c) haters/fanboys somehow gets twisted into it (no offense Vend). I can't win. :lol:
     
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  25. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Let me quote:

    "Respectfully, I wish fans would limit the irrational & pessimistic hatred toward Henne and understand that young QBs shouldn't be expected to have the ability to carry a team when things are falling apart.
    I wish fans would realize there are many external factors contributing to or affecting a QB's ability to succeed and prosper"

    That, to me, sure reads like you're saying that fans (a term that kinda applies to me) have an irrational and pessimistic hatred towards Henne, don't understand what a young QB should be expected to do and also don't realize the factors that contribute to a quarterback's ability to succeed. It also seems to suggest that you're a different kind of "fan" and that if I don't agree with what you've written before, I'm clearly guilty of either being a) an idiot b) a hater or c) not knowing enough football.

    I'm sorry that I called out your thread, by the way. It wasn't personal by any means. It's just that I see so many threads and posts in which it's made obvious that any person disagreeing really can't know what they're talking about. I even understand why you did it; it's become quite fashionable, on both sides of the argument. I simply pity that status quo, I didn't intend to attack you.
     
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  26. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Exceptionally so, though sadly the post was an almagam of two actual posts I had the displeasure of reading on this site.
     
  27. Ricky'sBong

    Ricky'sBong Reborn

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    Matt Moore has me excited. Sparano + Moore = no chance for the Pats and Jets
     
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  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Matt Ryan QBR wins - 95.2. Losses - 74.2.

    Seems to me that ATL can't get their running game going unless Ryan plays well.

    See how easy that is when I only put forth one statistic. His QBR when trailing or tied is 97. 4th quarter, and within 7 points (leading or trailing) his QBR is 88.3. Chad Henne's is 58.4. Josh Freeman 99.

    All of these QBs mentioned play well (except Henne). It's a team game, sometimes they don't win if the whole team isn't clicking. If there isn't good qb play (Miami) defenses ignore it and attack the Running game, killing it's effectiveness. It isn't a one way street. Running and passing is a synergistic
     
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  29. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    quite the contrary. thanks for further proving my point.
    Ryan has trouble throwing when the ground game doesn't work. I watched Atlanta's games..... every snap.
    The stats back up what my eyes told me----->the run affects the pass, not the pass affects the run.
    Atlanta is more of a run-first on first down type of team, not the other way around.
     
  30. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Are you so quickly forgetting how Sparano/Henning shut our offense down into massive conservative mode as soon as we had a lead, and it killed our passing game (or any potential for one) every time?
    Remember, we're the team that every defense knew what was coming b/c of Henning's predictability, routine use of 5 step drops, and Henne's inability to call games at the line. You know--- the team that would never go for the throat b/c we liked settling for FGs. That's not too conducive for racking up QB stats.
     
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  31. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    This means absolutely nothing, but, taking Henne's best ratings, Wins and Losses (best means over 75) his QBR avg is 88.7 (9 games).

    He has six games (no Bears game) with poor (under 75) QBR's. Two of those games were wins (CIN, NYJ).

    There's the bad call in PIT.

    The missed FG's in BUF.

    The falling receiver in DET and the Shuler incident.

    Of our 9 losses, I say that's three he played well enough to win.

    A few things happen differently, and we're not that angry this offseason. And it doesn't really have to do with coaching or personnel. I want to see what happens this year. It could be good, it could be bad. I have no idea, but I know what I hope this season looks like.
     
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  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He played pretty well against Baltimore. What did your review of that game show. How about Tampa Bay games. What did your review of those 16 games show? And Baltimore as well. Seems only fair since you threw those QBs in ;)

    I'm sorry I just see this as an extreme cherry picking of stats to help your boy look good, so you attempt to bring down some very damn good QBs. According to your argument, the #1 indicator of a QB capable of carrying their team, is one that has a running game that doesn't deviate between wins and losses. There are so many holes in your argument I don't know where to begin. Let's start with Tom Brady.

    YPG wins - 132.
    YPG Losses - 60.

    This according to your formula/argument, makes Tom Brady incapable of lifting his team.
     
  33. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    NO I didn't. But if Henne is a good QB, he'd play well in the situations given to him. A 55qbr isn't good. Conservative mode means it limits the QB's mistakes. It seems they did that and he got even worse.
     
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  34. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    To be fair, most teams run the ball when they get ahead.
     
  35. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    And Henne has NOTHING to do with that?
     
  36. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    Easily explained.............teams with a QB that scores points.....run the ball...................it's because they are in the lead ;)

    Now if this were league wide and demonstratable I could maybe bye in. Some teams will fit the mold as I am sure we could make a counter arguement choosing specific teams that show the opposite
     
  37. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    And had Scott Norwood not kicked wide right the Bills would have won the superbowl..............that is a sad thought ;)
     
  38. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I follow TP as closely as anyone here. I see no difference between Todd before his hiatus and the Todd since his return. He starts a lot of threads that are well reasoned and thought out. Then, we have a group of posters who never ever start threads of any kind, troll his threads, make snide comments, and attempt to refute what Todd says with nothing to support it other than, well, they just think so.

    I have an idea. Anyone who want to snipe Todd in his threads and make snide remarks about the thesis Todd puts forth, start some of your own gawd damned threads, and put yourself out there for jerks to take pot shots at you.

    BTW, when was the last time you started a thread on a football related topic?
     
  39. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I don't agree with that. Is that some adage you thought up yourself? The longer the explanation would just generally bore those with short attention spans, or seem worse to those who have already made up their minds and do not want to be confused by or entertain any new facts.
     
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  40. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    The Baltimore game--- he had a great game. One of those young QBs was forced by default to get the win.
    How about the Cardinals, Bengals, Browns, Packers playoffs game off the top of my head?

    Tampa Bay? Did you watch Freeman against the same Pitt team that Henne played well enough to deserve the win if the call weren't botched? Did you see the effective ground game he had to support him that defenses had to worry about?

    Ravens? I watched a QB who had the benefit of a stingy defense that allowed 16 pts/game while dumping off half of his passes to backs and TEs. Flacco, like Ryan, and Freeman had his bright spots. I'm not saying they didn't; that would be foolish and biased on my part.

    You can say what you want, but these guys aren't like Peyton, Brady, Brees, or Rodgers. The Ravens, Falcons, and Bucs run game did not open up b/c teams were more worried about their QBs. Their ground game was effective b/c their ground game was effective. It's pretty easy to recognize this when watching them play.

    You do understand that the Patriots, Colts, and Saints rely heavily on the passing game, right? And that they do this b/c they can trust putting the game in the hands of their QB each and every game?---- meaning their rushing YPG can be quite meaningless.

    Do you also realize that Atlanta, TB, Baltimore, KC, and NY rely heavily on the run?...... and that Miami relies on the run, too?.... or did you miss that repeated emphasis by Sparano? :tongue2:

    The run stats compared to wins and losses are very telling <with the teams I used> b/c they are teams who WANT to run the ball rather than chucking it 50 times per game. If you're a balanced offense or a run oriented offense and have a young QB, then these stats most certainly do apply..... unless you're trying to insinuate that a team like Atlanta or TB would rather put the offense on the shoulders of their still-developing QB rather than entrusting a strong ground game to act as their workhorse.

    I hope you're not trying to say the Chiefs, Bucs, and Jets rank in the top 8 in rushing b/c Freeman, Sanchez, and Cassel command so much attention...... or that the Ravens & Falcons have been successful running the ball the past 3 years b/c of Ryan & Flacco.

    The Jets had the #1 ground game in 2009 b/c Sanchez was extremely dangerous as a rookie. <sarcasm>
    Falcons & Ravens had the #2 & #4 ground games in 2008 b/c defenses game planned to stop the experienced, veteran rookie QBs Ryan & Flacco. <sarcasm again>

    Do you know how silly it sounds saying these great rushing offenses are successful b/c of their young guys at QB?
     

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