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Comparing Atlanta to Miami in some key areas that affect wins, losses, & QB play

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Aug 8, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I was asked a great question in another thread about Atlanta's ground game-----> specifically, how it was different than ours (IE: more favorable to Matt Ryan & the Falcons' offense) despite the general numbers looking comparable.

    There's some good stuff here, so I thought it warranted its own thread, especially because I feel Ryan was given more credit than he deserved for Atlanta's success. When you go 13-3, it's understandable to think he was the main reason why, but IMO that's not the case when you re-watch their games and break down some of the stats. He no doubt had some great performances, so I'm not taking that away from him, but by no means do I feel he's playing at a franchise QB level <yet> capable of carrying a team. I also feel Ryan's team put him a much greater position to succeed and serve as a game manager rather than having the entire weight of their success resting on his shoulders.

    I'm praying that with the additions and subtractions we've made this offseason, along with the development of our youth, will provide Henne and our offense some of the advantages Ryan was afforded.

    Here are some of the significant numbers (and differences), benefits to a QB's success (or lack there of):


    Rushing

    1st down
    Miami: 228 carries....... 786 yards.... 3.4 avg.... 5 TDs...... (2) 20+.... 6 fumbles.... 16 first downs.
    Atlanta: 271 carries.... 1055 yards.... 3.9 avg.... 4 TDs...... (6) 20+.... 2 fumbles.... 29 first downs.
    Jets:.... 297 carries.... 1297 yards.... 4.4 avg.... 5 TDs...... (6) 20+.... 4 fumbles..... 24 first downs.
    Cheifs: 278 carries..... 1533 yards.... 5.5 avg.... 7 TDs..... (11) 20+.... 3 fumbles.... 44 first downs.

    When Tied (includes the start of a game)
    Miami: 96 carries..... 307 yards.... 3.2 avg.... (0) 20+.... 2 TDs.... 1 fumble.... 19 first downs.
    Atlanta:120 carries... 487 yards.... 4.1 avg.... (2) 20+.... 3 TDs.... 1 fumble.... 30 first downs.

    First downs rushing
    Miami: 91
    Atlanta: 111. (20 more first downs is a lot of drive extending).

    Rushing during wins
    Miami: 246 carries....... 914 yards..... 3.7 avg..... (4) 20+...... 4 TDs.... 130.6 YPG.... 6 fumbles.... 49 first downs.
    Atlanta: 431 carries.... 1693 yards.... 3.9 avg.... (10) 20+.... 14 TDs.... 130.2 YPG.... 3 fumbles.... 100 first downs.

    Rushing during losses
    Miami: 199 carries.... 729 yards.... 3.7 avg.... (1) 20+.... 4 TDs.... 81.0 YPG.... 6 fumbles.... 42 first downs.
    Atlanta: 66 carries.... 198 yards.... 3.0 avg.... (2) 20+.... 0 TDs.... 66.0 YPG.... 1 fumble..... 11 first downs.

    Fumbles
    Miami: 12
    Atlanta: 4

    Dropped INTs (throwing this one in b/c it extends drives)
    Ryan: 6 (some of these saved Matt's butt and ended up allowing Atlanta to win games they would've lost)
    Henne: 1



    On top of this you have special teams play, field position, and additional TDs scored & allowed to consider:

    Total INTs & Recovered Fumbles
    Miami: 19..... 1 TD
    Atlanta: 31.... 3 TD
    (that's a lot of short field opportunities & extra scoring opportunities)

    Kickoff Return Avg
    Miami: 21.4 (22nd).............. (2) 40+..... 0 TD..... 1 fumble
    Atlanta: 26.5 (#1 in NFL)..... (5) 40+..... 1 TD...... 0 fumbles

    Punt Return Avg
    Miami: 10.5 (13th)............. 0 TD..... 4 fumbles
    Atlanta: 12.1 (#5 in NFL).... 1 TD......1 fumble

    Punts & FGs Blocked (on offense)
    Miami: 4
    Atlanta: 2

    Field Goals
    Miami: 30/41....... 73%.
    Atlanta: 28/31..... 90%.

    Special Teams TDs allowed:
    Miami: 4 (doesn't include the ensuing 10 points scored after 2 blocked punts to NY & NE)
    Atlanta: 3

    Total Special Teams & Defensive TDs scored:
    Miami: 1
    Atlanta: 5

    ****Considering we lost 5 games by a total of 22pts, I'd say these stats are pretty significant.
    ****Meanwhile, Atlanta won 5 games by 17 pts (I'd say their stats are pretty significant, too).
    (If you completely reverse all the above stats (Atlanta's being like Miami's and Miami's being like Atlanta's), we could've very well won 3 of those games, while Atlanta could've lost 3, essentially making us 10-6, while dropping Atlanta to 10-6.)


    All these additional TDs allowed, fumbles, missed FGs, blocked punts/FGs, lack of turnovers, lack of Special Team & Defensive TDs, lack of short field opportunities, fewer first downs, and fewer big plays really hurt us.


    It seems to me that Matt Ryan was the beneficiary of stuff that Henne wasn't afforded......... and that Henne had significantly more to overcome in order to win...... which can be interpreted as: Atlanta did a lot of winning AS A TEAM, where as Miami too often put the game on Henne's shoulders. I fully expect the above stats to look much better for us this season with the additions & changes we made, which IMO gives us a real chance to win 10+ games and make a playoff run.


    Henne's our QB in 2011 whether some of us like it or not...... so rather than complaining about it or throwing out hypothetical present or future replacements, it might behoove us to instead focus on what we can do to put him in more advantageous positions to succeed.
     
  2. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Roddy White was the biggest beneficiary
     
  3. REAL TALK!

    REAL TALK! Banned

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    Atlanta went 13-3 and Miami went 7-9. Not because of missed FGs and the ball bouncing the wrong way. REAL TALK!
     
  4. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    Way to gloss over details and dismiss a well thought out post by the OP. REAL DUMB!
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is this your way of making a signature statement..Real talk, ''find your game lad''
     
  6. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  7. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    That post, wasn't supported by anything. CHEESE CAKE!
     
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  8. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    spa ghettie
     
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  9. REAL TALK!

    REAL TALK! Banned

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    Mock me all you want with your witticisms. I read the post. Lots of numbers. So what. I have no faith in our coaches or Henne. 7-9 yet again. REAL TALK!
     
  10. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    Numbers are hard.
     
  11. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Here's an invisible stat that technically has nothing to do with the QB but greatly affects them: Opportunities.

    Im going to bet our defense dropped AT LEAST 10 more interceptions than the Falcons defense did. We dropped 19 interceptions last season. That would have been 19 more chances to score (i know for a fact at least 3 of them were pick 6's too but i;ll ignore that for now)

    even if we only kick 19 more field goals, thats 57 points we could have scored...If our offense managed to score some tds it could have been 100+ pts.

    If our defense can actually catch the ball this year and give our offense some short fields to work with Henne and the offense will benefit greatly.

    in short, CATCH THE DAMN BALL DEFENSE!
     
  12. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    oh and what is this about? Henne makes bad throws, without question. But the defense NEVER drops them when he throws them. But when, say, Mark Sanchez throws it it's like the ball is covered in KY Jelly.
     
  13. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    While I don't think Henne's play was the main reason for our lack of success last year, I think Matt Ryan is however the main difference between our two teams overall.
     
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  14. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Ryan is a good QB. However, if Ryan had been drafted by the Dolphins in 2008 his numbers would look very much like Henne's and some here would be calling him a "bust".
     
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  15. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Well, how about backing it up with something more than the argumentative acumen of a 7th grader? Explain what you mean. How do you derive those thoughts? Are they simply "feelings" or can you relate anything that has not already been posted ad nauseum on the board to further explicate and validate your statements?

    BTW: Mods. Is it possible to create a Eeyore forum? Could we direct them to a forum where they can then can vetch to their heart's content, and the rest of us can discuss football, or whatever?
     
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Chad Pennington played in that 2008 team. Not sure why that argument flies.

    Look, I understand your arguments Todd. And appreciate the work. These are good discussions to have. The numbers would carry more weight if we were discussing Chad's W/L record only. But we're discussing W/L record and bad play.If Chad played well but wasn't able to overcome a bad team, sure. That's Kyle Orton. He remains a mystery. Is he good, is he garbage etc. For now, Chad has played garbage.

    Why is it that Ryan and Sanchez soooo lucky with opposing defenses always dropping their INT's, but Chad is so unlucky? Or is chad telegraphing his throws and throwing it right at the defender's bread baskets?

    All I'm going to do is hope Chad Henne plays better, I'm rooting for him. He's our QB. I won't be trying to fool myself that he is any where near Ryan, Josh Freeman or other young QBs. That many INT's ain't cutting it.
     
  17. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    This thread is killing me already. :lol:
     
  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    How cute! You're profile name is REAL TALK!..... and you end your posts with REAL TALK!...... FRANKS AND BEANS!


    [​IMG]
     
  19. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    Have you seen my baseball? BASE BALL!
     
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  20. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Yup; there are lots of numbers.
    Next thread we'll work on explaining those numbers.
    Soon after that the alphabet.......
    And within a few weeks, maybe you can work your way up to football. lol.




    [​IMG]
     
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  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :sidelol:

    killin me. That's what I was thinking before I read your post.
     
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  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Sanchez had 13..... and considering his noodle arm & Henne's cannon, you'd think those numbers would be reversed. Crap, I think our own receivers dropped a higher percentage of passes than opposing defenses.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I think Ryan's a better QB, but I personally dont know just how wide or small the gap truly is until Henne's had a year under similar circumstances. Hopefully this is the year. I think that gap could prove to be much smaller than people realize.
     
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  24. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I'm not trying to say that Henne is as good as Ryan. However, I also will not, with this limited amount of data and with the huge difference between their respective TEAMS, say that Ryan is light years ahead of Henne. He's probably ahead in the intangibles like leadership and confidence, but that's due to the better situation he was put in.

    And when I wrote 2008 I was just going by the year that Ryan was drafted. My point was, that on this team if Ryan had been playing QB the last 2 seasons I doubt that his and Henne's numbers (or team loss/win records) would be any different. I'd bet that any current QB playing today, sans maybe P. Manning, would be putting up average to below average numbers with a .500 or less winning % on this team the last two seasons.

    The idea that a QB makes or breaks a team is provably false. It's been shown time and time again that average (or even below average) QB's win Super Bowls and/or play on consistently competative teams. Football is the ultimate team sport. Unlike baseball or basketball, no one player can make the difference between being a championship team or being a losing team.

    Now don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have a Marino than a Dilfer...but who has the ring out of those two? A football TEAM needs to be well rounded. It's typically true that a championship team has a good to great defense, average (or close to average) offense, and a special teams unit capable of giving the offense good field position.
     
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  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's a great question. Hopefully this season will reveal if it's nothing more than coincidence (regression to the mean) or if he's actually telegraphing. Maybe one of us here can go back to the picks and break them down.

    I agree, regardless of the reasons, that many INTs can damage a season when not thrown by Peyton Manning or Drew Brees.

    If we can improve some of the areas listed in the OP and Henne can cut back on a few mistakes/INTs, I think we'll be in good situation as a whole. IMO we have a better chance than not of this happening.
     
  26. REAL TALK!

    REAL TALK! Banned

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    Numbers are EASY. You are making them difficult.
    13-3 vs 7-9.
    28 TDs/9 INTs vs 15 TDs/19 INTs

    You can break it down into little bits and pieces all you want. Matt Ryan is an elite QB. Henne is below average. Mock my simplicity all you want. REAL TALK!
     
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  27. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    :jt0323:

    Don't mind me, just passing through...........
     
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  28. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Wins and losses are not individual stats. Numbers are easy as long as the person using them knows how to use them in the right context.

    Matt Ryan is a good QB who plays on a good team.

    Henne is a ? QB who has been playing on a bad team. Hopefully this year the team will be as good as the Falcons.
     
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  29. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    You remind me of a dude that was around here a bunch last year..got into some really good pissing contests with Con and was banned twice. Basically would just show up..blabber, and blabber a little louder the next time.

    I apologize on behalf of the other forum members if we're devout in our love of breaking down some film, situational statistics, and basically getting down to the nuts and bolts of why certain things unfolded the way they did. If you're not going to add a whole lot to the conversation one way or the other, you can point your google machine to any of the other forums that you wish. Otherwise, shhh, grownups are talking.
     
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  30. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Have you seen my..... wiener?
     
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  31. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    OK.
    Annnnd with the 29,349th pick................ :chuckle:
     
  32. REAL TALK!

    REAL TALK! Banned

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  33. DePhinistr8

    DePhinistr8 Season Ticket Holder

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    [​IMG]
     
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  34. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Henne has a cannon but is one of the worst deep ball passers in the league, and also threw the least amounts as well (not sure if him, or coaching or most likely, both). Disappointing when we consider the amount of the time Henne is given to throw (a lot). Maybe it's our lack of an every down deep threat (that ain't Hartline). I hope to see some fireworks this year.
     
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  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I haven't but I heard a picture of it is floating around Twitter. You a shorter, slim jewish guy, hangs around the DC beltway a bit ;)
     
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  37. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    I don't know if the numbers would be that similar but surely Ryan would not have had it easy. I do think Ryan is a better Qb that Henne but you may be correct in saying he'd be on that bust borderline...
     
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  38. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    First you say Henne sucks..... then you post a site reference (that you apparently support) that lists Henne as the 17th best QB in the NFL (ahead of Romo, Cutler, Sanchez, Stafford, Kolb, and Bradford). :lol:

    Woodshed, here you come.
     
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  39. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Football outsiders are far far far from EXPERTS!! TRUE TALK
     
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  40. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They are sooo lucky cause they played in a different offense
     

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