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Lombardi believes our team will fail...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DOLPHANITY, Aug 9, 2011.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Right. The staff hasn't disciplined you and spoken to you multiple times about your behavior. Sure.

    Ah, yes. The common shield when someone points out that you're in the wrong. "You take this too seriously". Yes, because taking anything seriously is uncool. Wanting people to act like respectful adults is uncool. The only way to be cool is to take unprovoked shots at people and then if they scold you for it, tell them they're being uncool because they're taking this too seriously.


    Thanks.

    How many carries do you think he's going to get per game? I said 10-12 and you chided me for making bad assumptions, so obviously you think less than that.

    You're right, I'm assuming. They could do what you say, which would be a bad idea for exactly the reason you outlined, giving a rookie too much to think on may result in him not being particularly good at anything.

    I'd be happy oblige you, since you asked so nicely.

    1. I like Nate Garner as a player, I like what he brings. He has some snap consistency issues he needs to work on, getting off the ball consistently well, but he's a very smart player, keeps his head on a swivel, can jump out into space and find work, and when he gets off the snap consistently he shows the strength you need. In short, I think Nate Garner should play because of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYpGz6kolQA

    2. Tony Sparano seems very attached with Richie Incognito, who was one of the few free agents in the league that received a contract extension BEFORE the lockout ensued. He's now moved Vernon Carey inside to Guard, and I think the rational assumption there is that he'll start. Meanwhile, as you just got done saying, Marc Colombo was just given a $2 million contract with $1 million of it already guaranteed (the other $1 million will be guaranteed at the start of the season, as you say). This all makes me DOUBT that Sparano will see the wisdom in statring Nate Garner.

    Generally speaking the QB is of critical importance regardless of what kind of team you are. Passer efficiency margin (offensive QBR minus defensive QBR) remains the most highly correlative predictor of champions and of winning. That said, if we're a run the ball and play D team, then the fact that we didn't run the ball well last year and the D wasn't elite, that should give people plenty of things to worry about.

    You could very well be right. They may change the scheme a little to make the defense more aggressive pressure-wise. Call me old fashioned but I LIKED that we only needed to send an average of 4.24 guys after the passer per pass play in 2010. I think it helped make the defense as good as it was.

    He can't cover if he's blitzing. That's what I'm saying. If we have to make up for offenses keying on Wake by having Burnett blitz more, you're minimizing the advantage he has over Crowder in coverage. Meanwhile, the disadvantage he has versus Crowder against the run, remains unaffected.

    I would be prepared for Merling not to make the team.

    You pretty clearly implied that Crowder has low value to a team, and as evidence, he's retiring. I'm saying he didn't retire because teams weren't interested, he retired because he wasn't interested in them, because of his newborn baby and not wanting to pick up and move. As for quotes, he did an entire WQAM interview like yesterday where he announced his intent to retire, and talked about all the reasons why. He talked about visits he made with other teams, how he (not unlike Zach Thomas) had a tough time envisioning himself playing for the Bills or Patriots because he hates those teams, etc. Mostly, it's because of his kid being newborn.

    Well that's kind of what is at stake though, isn't it? Isn't that what I've been getting at? I agree that Dansby was a good move. You can't have Crowder and Ayodele in the middle...too slow, not enough proficiency against the pass. But do we know what a Crowder-less run defense looks like? Channing missed the first four games of 2010. Those teams ran for 118 yards per game against us. For the other 12 games, they rushed for 94 yards per game. Is that a coincidence? Was it a coincidence that in the 4 games Crowder missed in 2009, opponents ran for 141 yards per game, versus 106 yards per game in the other 12 games? Was it a coincidence that in the 1 game Crowder missed in 2008, the Chiefs racked up 180 yards on the ground versus our season average of 96 yards? Is it a coincidence that over the last three seasons combined the Dolphins have allowed 98 yards rushing per game in 39 games with Crowder, and 135 yards per game in 9 games without him?

    Can't fix everything, I agree, but this isn't so much about "what could they have done?" so much as about "what do you expect?". A weakness is a weakness, whether they had a legit chance to fix it or not. Although, I would NOTE that according to sources they're about $8.5 million under the cap, with potentially more money if they do the right thing and extend Soliai, and yet they have made no attempt to strengthen this weakness in the secondary.

    That's what I was getting at with the Jon Amaya/Tim Dobbins/Pat Cobbs thing. The roster churn on STs. People have pointed to it in the past, and this off season what do they do? Churn the roster some more on STs.

    I mean yeah, it's not a NEW weakness. We had the weakness last year too, and the year before. But we were also 7-9 last year, and the year before. Persisting weaknesses suck.

    While I agree that I may have misread your tone on this particular sentence ("Nice disclaimer"), I don't agree with the general sentiment. You'll notice I numbered the points you raised that I replied to. Points #4 thru #14 were perfectly fine. I bring up specific points, you argue against them, I give my reply, everything is very respectful and cordial. But they lay in stark contrast to the disrespectul, insulting tone laid out in #1 thru #3. All I'm saying is, why is that necessary? You seem to be putting forth the idea that it's perfectly OK to be disrespectful toward posters and start slandering THEM rather than addressing their arguments, and if they don't like it then they're "taking things too seriously". But it was you who took a very detailed, well thought-out OPINION of the team's weaknesses that I posted, and acted like I'd just insulted you or a family member, and began taking the discussion into areas of insult and disrespect at the poster, instead of arguing the topic.

    So is it really me that's taking this too seriously? Because you seem unable to separate the topic of discussion from yourself. You take these criticisms of the team and the staff personally, and begin posting with venom accordingly.
     
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  2. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    You're losing me today bro. You know I dig you, but you're making me dizzy. First of all, that wasn't the post of mine to which you quoted and responded, hence the EXTRA confusion. Still, that was hardly a "rant". It was however an expression of shock to how people reacted to his comments and then try to discredit him and his knowledge and experience for saying so. Especially, when he's been such a respected guy around here and usually has nothing but good things to say about the Phins, but I already explained that in my first post. Also, you did not say to what "word" you were referring. See:
    I'm not a mind reader.

    Do I really have to explain the "clueless douche" comment?

    You still rock in my book, but I need a drink. :pointlol::up:
     
  3. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    Lombardi was on Simmons' podcast today and reiterated his dislike of what the Dolphins have done this offseason.

    (Paraphrasing)

    On Kevin O'Connell: "Did they ever watch him in pregame warmup? How could you watch him an think he's your 3rd."

    "Look, they're counting on Marc Colombo to stay healthy at right tackle and Reggie Bush being the bell cow. That's not going to work."
     
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  4. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for that recap. As I would never listen voluntarily to anything douchebag Heat hating Bill Simmons has to say, I appreciate you doing it for me.
     
  5. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I enjoy the spirited debates like this. As The World Turns...Dolphins style.
     
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  6. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    We sure don't seem to maintain much stability on STs under this regime. My perception only, perhaps. I kind of wonder how we compare in the churning of the roster, the players who comprise a good part of the STs, with other teams. I wonder how we compare in the use of starters on punt coverage and return teams, and on kick coverage and return teams. Does our STs suck on a regular basis because of roster turnover mainly, or mediocre coaching, or an even balance of both?
     
  7. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Are you getting GMJ mixed up with Todd? Some people believe they are the same person though, so perhaps you do as well? :)
     
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  8. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    ok here is what is being overlooked here. The pats and the Jets have rolled the dice some work or some dont but this regime seems to be taking one step forward and two steps back at times or it seems that way to me. the fact of the matter the Jets and Patriots have coaches that are well respected the dolphins dont . if one report says things like the dolphins made a bad move fine , but when many media people are saying the same things that some of us here are saying shouldn't that be saying something the fan base and everybody cant be right but everybody cant be wrong so my point is
    the dolphins dont seem to take risk let the Eagles or the Cardinals they use the take the cheapest players regardless of how good they are so i havent very good results and neither has the media . this is only a observation.
     
  9. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I just want to comment on this one thing you wrote here.

    You wrote that you like Garner because of his game against the Pats in 2009.

    Well, Henne had a pretty good game then too. Does this mean that you now like Henne as a starter? :shifty:
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, just wanted to point out that at this time last yr, Vic Carrucci mentioned Parcells was disappointed in Henne's development.

    This yr it is Mike Lombardi, and YMMV, but Channing Crowder also said the first issue we should have addressed in FA was a QB.

    Now do I think Henne will turn the corner?

    Yeah, yes I do, imo he finally is confident in his offensive playmakers, Imo he and Marshall are not a good mesh, he and Bush are two peas in a pod.

    But to be clear I have no aqua colored glasses in re Chad Henne, I have far greater hopes pinned on running the ball with DT and Sheets and Bush with Hilliard sprinkled in.
     
  11. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Die pointless thread, die!
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I respected the point that GM mentioned about taking a stand for your team when someone attaches innuendo or rumor to their projection without an out, I think you stick up for your team because you don't want that opinion to steamroll into the masses perception, and on some level affect a player, or the teams chemistry.

    Not sure that makes a lot of sense, or if that was what GM was talking about, but thats how I interpreted it and why I debate some topics and opinions with a little more heat than others.
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol.. Sceeter, I just hate generalizations to that degree, I think it paints the wrong picture..

    Lets get hammered bud..
     
  14. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    And even if it was GM why bring it up? Using strawmen to further an argument is pretty weak. Besides, I haven't seen GM break any of the forum TOS...have you?
     
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  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Never have, but never did with Todd either. Only heard about it after the hammer came down. All I ever seen was him defending himself from troll like posts. Maybe I am biased in some folks eyes, because I consider Todd a friend, but to me posters like him, who start a lot of well researched threads on interesting topics are what makes a forum good. GMJ does not start as many threads as Todd, few do, but he probably interjects with as much well reasoned responses to keep good threads going as anyone. When guys like him and CK get into a spirited debate like earlier today, I enjoy it the most. Makes me think about lots of things to do with the team, and sometimes form new opinions from what they say.
     
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  16. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    My problem is I don't have faith in Sparano. I love what Mike Nolan has done with the defense. he got the absolute most of that talent last year. Sparano couldn't get anything out of that offense and it's not like the offense is lacking talent. Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown. Dan Henning and Sparano couldn't make anything happen on offense. And OL Sparano's specialty was just a disaster. Sparano kept tinkering and tinkering and tinkering with the OL and never let them gel. I think what Ricky Williams said about Sparano micromanaging things might have some truth to it.

    I like the talent we have on the team. I think we could have done a bit better. We really should have kept Ricky Williams I think at least. But I feel that Sparano is just not that gifted a coach. He's a good coach but not a great one. In a division with Bill Belichek and that madman on defense Rex Ryan we are at a coaching deficit. Honestly Chan Gailey isn't that bad a coach. the Dolphins might have the worst head coaching position in the division.
     
  17. GRT8

    GRT8 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Thomas runs high, fumbles 's are a concern, blocking a concern. Henne, new OC, should be better! Bush, a situational RB....... many issues, no doubt. Ride the D, OL, a ?mark and ST, better. One to Two game improvement. Ceiling.... 10 wins. Quit ur *****ing....... are we better than last yr? Yes.
     
  18. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    That's cool. I'm just messin'

    I'm with ya'. Let's do it. :drink::up:
     
  19. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I agree that CK typically creates a great argument and backs up his opinions with solid, objective data. I usually love to read his posts even when I disagree with him. However, in this case (and as recent) he seems to be falling further and further into the "I'm right because I say so group".
     
  20. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What's turning the corner though Pad?

    Is it just having a positive TD/INT ratio?

    I have a feeling that even if Henne improves we're going to be here next off season discussing QB's. A decision should have been made on him one way or another by now
     
  21. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    On June 14th Lombardi had this to say about the Dolphins:

    Daniel Eliesen: What do you think Miami’s free agency approach will be? Big money RB or a vet QB?

    Mike Lombardi: I don’t know. They clearly like Thomas trading up for him, so I think he will be a key part of their offense for them but I think they might go after a RB as a compliment to him but they have a lot faith in him.


    Daniel Eliesen: I asked Charles Davis about the direction of the Dolphins and he said he expects them to be in the mix. Do you share his thoughts?

    Mike Lombardi: Well they have a really good team. They need to avoid injuries and get strong play from their offensive line but at the end of the day if they have solid play from the QB they have the elements to be a very strong team.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So in less than 2 months Lombardi has gone from thinking that the Dolphins only need to avoid injuries and get strong QB play in order to be in the mix to finding numerous holes in the team.

    I wonder what changed his mind so drastically?
     
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  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I take a sort of MoneyBall approach to the Qb position:

    -Td to Int ratio
    -3rd down conversion rate
    -Completion percentage
    -first downs running the ball, the later that happens in a game, the more valuable they become.

    MoneyBall basically boiled down to outs being the most valuable possession in MLB, for me, in the NFL possessions are the most valuable thing in the NFL concerning offenses, the above leads to more possessions which 98% of the time means more wins.

    Henne already:

    -has good accuracy
    -is good at converting 3rd downs

    That leaves:

    -Td to int, I suspect with Bush (and to a lessser extent Sheets) Henne's numbers will improve as now he does not have to do the heavy lifting, just get the ball into their hands and thier job is to score TD;s
    -Picking up first downs running, Henne was really bad at it, but he looks as if he lost 10-15 pds, which should help him in that category which will extend drives and more drives means more points as well.

    I have reasons why I think Henne will improve this yr beyond mere blind hope.
     
  23. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So if he does all this, is he your franchise QB? Do you stop attempting to upgrade the position?
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's really hard to say if the Dolphins do it more than other teams. I think the thing to note is that since Sparano/Ireland took over, STs have generally been a big problem. It's been a constant struggle. Usually I'd just (conveniently) blame the STs coach. Maybe that's the case here, Bonamego just not a very good STs Coach and then when he was fired Tony gave the job to his assistant who is also not that great. But, it could be something more than that.

    The bottom line to me is, it has been a weakness, and based on the moves I'm not sure why it won't continue to be a weakness. This especially in a lockout-shortened off season where there's not a lot of teaching time for this stuff. Considering they're working hard to install a whole new offense, one does wonder if that eats into the time they spend in practice working on STs.
     
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  25. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We used to have players that you could point to and say that they were only on the team because of their special teams play. I cannot think of anyone like that in the last couple of years. Two equal players fighting for the last spot, and the one with better special teams might make it, but where are our Larry Izzo’s? I remember when Jimmy came out at the start of one season and said only Marino and Izzo were guaranteed to make the team. That sort of thing would never happen with this regime, IMO.
     
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  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That is rather vague as all the numbers systems in the world do make up for passing the "what I saw him do" test.
     
  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Jason Trusnik.
     
  28. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Henne puts up Gus Frerotte numbers, which you said you would be happy with, are you signing Henne to a long term contract extension and declaring "mission accomplished" on the search for a QB?

    Anything short of a huge leap, to me, means we are in the same position next off season as we are right now, looking for an upgrade.
     
  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I'm not sure you would sign him to a long-term contract. Probably a 2-3 year contract. Don't think it would prohibit looking for an upgrade either.
     
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  30. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's started 15 games in the last two seasons. Izzo from his NFL.com stats didn't start one game in his career. I would love if Trusnik gives us what Izzo gave, but I think he's here because of his ability as a back up as much as his special teams play. I only watched one browns game, so maybe he is just a special teams wizard. I will reserve judgment until I see what he does this year. Who would you point to from last year, or the year before?
     
  31. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks. I agree that if he plays decently and we win 8 or 9 games, he might be worth signing for another year or two but unless there is a huge leap in his overall play I would imagine it has to be time to end the experiment and find somebody else to start.
     
  32. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I don't think he should be the inherent starter. But if he's putting up a QBR in the high 80s, then I would want to hold on to him, as those QBs arent easy to find. I would still try to improve the position though.
     
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  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    With a 61% completion rate and without the fumbles?

    sure, yes I would.


    I think what it would allow us to do is finally draft BPA instead of always pinning away for a Qb, we could now take a LG in the 20's, or a Te with a #1 pick, or a Fs who is a ballhawk.
     
  34. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Jonathan Amaya was pretty good last year, and we traded him for Bush. Trusnik will hopefully be an upgrade over Dobbins who Ireland talked up after that trade last year as a good STer but he really didn't show much to me. Lex had some good moments covering kicks and is going to need to do at least the same. Spitler was talked up as a good STer when we drafted him, but also did not seem to be in on many tackles to me. Spitler and Dobbins seemed to be attempts to address STs in 2010, but they just didn't go that well. Wallace was out of his element it seemed to me,covering kicks last season, failed to stay in his lane a few times. Got better later in the season. Jones was decent and should be back doing it again.
    What with the blocked punts we had last season, how many was it preseason and regular combined? 4?, I hope some serious focus is put into who will be the up back since he is the last line of defense for a middle rush which seems to be where most punts get blocked because it is the shortest distance to get there.
     
  35. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Cannot agree with you at all. 18 and 13 is nothing special, even with a higher completion % and less fumbles. And to take yet another offensive lineman. Simply crazy to me.

    We'd just keep wasting this defense like we wasted Jimmy's defense
     
  36. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    But what is a "huge leap" in your mind? If it can be put in QBR terms, are we talking 90+ or just mid 80s? Are Kyle Orton numbers enough?

    The interceptions are the big thing. Although 19 is a lot, with only one INT dropped by opponents, 20 "should be" interceptions is really not so bad, especially considering that a few of them were at least a little flukey, coming off tipped or batted passes. If he can trim the number of "should be" interceptions by 10% and just get the usual amount of "help" from opposing DBs (5-6 drops), he'd have his INTs down to 12 or so, which is perfectly acceptable and even pretty good. On the other side, 2-3 extra big play TDs (from Bush, Gates, a fitter/faster Marshall) and more red zone passing opportunities due to less conservative playcalling (playing for FGs) between the opponent's 20 and 40 yard line) could easily result in 7-10 more passing TDs. Henne threw one TD for every 4.6 red zone passing attempts, which is better than Orton's one in 5.15. But Orton got nearly 50% more red zone attempts despite playing fewer games. Matt Ryan got nearly twice as many red zone passing attempts and was a little better than Henne (one in 3.86), but not that much better. If Henne gets 75 red zone attempts (about right between what Orton and Ryan got last year) and even maintains his TD per 4.6 attempts, he would throw 6 more TDs in addition to the hoped for 2-3 more big play TDs. If Henne has 9 more TDs and 7 fewer INTs but keeps his other numbers the same, his QBR would go up to 87.5. If that can be coupled with a Top 10 defense and a Top 15 running game, this is probably an 11-12 win team.

    Yeah, there are a lot of "ifs" in there, but they are plausible ifs that aren't really based on much change in Henne himself. The changes are in circumstances around him (a normal number of INTs dropped, more red zone attempts, etc.) and, I think, are pretty plausible. If we are a 11-12 win team with a 27 yr. old QB coming off a 87.5 QBR and with a top defense, I don't see how you scrap that next offseason to put the team in the hands of a completely untested and unproven rookie QB.
     
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  37. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Orton numbers are enough to make a QB an unquestioned franchise caliber starting Qb then I suggest we immediately trade whatever is necessary for Orton since we already know he is capable of such numbers while we are still merely hopeful about Henne.

    If there is more to it than raw numbers, then I wouldn't assume anything regarding Henne. You made alot of assumptions but even if Henne had that breakout of a season why would you assume he was any more a franchise QB than Orton? Wouldn't Henne then be as much the product of his system and players around him?
     
  38. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For another example, Fineas, let's look at Drew Brees who gets brought up alot as a guy who blossomed in his third season.

    http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/careerstats

    In his third year Brees went from basically being Henne (although he was a little bit better) to being an absolute monster. He was 27-7, completing 65% and with a 104. rating. If Henne puts up anything like this, I'll say he's a franchise QB.

    If he improves to merely something close to Orton, with better players and a better scheme (theoretically) then I'm absolutely looking for an upgrade. Henne wouldn't be a terrible fall back, but you could do better.
     
  39. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Jan 5, 2008
    Well, trading for Orton carries a price. An apparently significant one if one believes the reports about what it would cost to get him in trade and what it would cost to pay him. Add to that the fact that Henne has had a few years with this staff and most fo the surrounding players and you have a decision that while Orton may be a little "surer" than Henne, his talent and upside is not really any better and his cost (in terms of draft picks and money) is much higher. Hence no trade (even if Denver was really willign to trade him, which isn't entirely clear).

    The numbers I showed do not really represent a breakout because they do not involve any actual improvement from Henne, except the 10% reduction in "should be" interceptions and even if you get rid of that, then Henne's still got a QBR in the mid 80s and the team is probably still in the 10-12 win territory. Yes, it would mean that Henne is a product of the system in very much the same way that most, if not all, QBs are. We often assume that the very best QBs would be great in any system, but that isn't necessarily true. One can probably count on one hand (maybe a few fingers on the other hand) the number of QBs in NFL history that have been really successful on two different teams or two different systems -- Brees, Warner, Favre (in GB and for one year in Minny sandwiched between 2 poor years), TGreen (if you want to count 5 starts in StLouis), Randall Cunningham (in Philly and for 1 year in Minny). That's about it. Most of the great ones played for one team and in one basic system their entire careers -- Marino, Elway, PManning, Brady, etc. And the truth is that when those offenses were really good, their backups did pretty darn well too.

    I don't assume Henne is any more of a franchise QB than Orton, but I also wouldn't ditch a mid-80s QBR guy in his 20s on a 10-12 win team in order to turn the team over to an untested rookie, even if that rookie is a Top 3 pick.
     
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  40. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    18 and 12

    23 and 12

    Guess who put that up in his first 2 Super Bowl wins? :shifty:
     

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