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Comparing Atlanta to Miami in some key areas that affect wins, losses, & QB play

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Aug 8, 2011.

  1. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    The great thing about this year is... it's year 4 and Henne is going to have to sink or swim this year regardless. So all the excuses and blame game etc. won't matter after this season. Either HE is going to perform and play better or he is done in Miami. And THAT is REAL TALK! :P

    Just for the record I want Henne to perform; I don't want this team to get blown up, yet again, and be rebuilt. I would like to see the playoffs before 2015.
     
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  2. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I mostly agree with you, but I'm still not sure we can do that with legitimate accuracy b/c the surrounding cast and situation within the situation still may be variable, correct?

    For instance, Henne has arguably the best receiver duo for converting 3rd & 7ish or less b/c they're quick, sudden, run great routes, and are hard to cover over a shorter distance. That doesn't mean that Henne will be successful, but it gives him the tools to succeed, and he does.

    However, when dealing with 3rd & 8+, these advantages disappear significantly IMO b/c it's an entirely different set of circumstance. The skills that helped the slower Bess & out of shape Marshall in 3rd & 7 or less don't matter a much when facing a longer distance, especially during our last 5 games when Henne was getting hit & sacked a lot.

    IMO that's the greatest contributor to our lack of 3rd & long success. Our personnel wasn't really geared for it. We were meant to be a running team combined with a low risk, possession style passing game, and that's how we were built...... so it doesn't surprise me that a possession style offense had trouble converting an excessive amount of 3rd & longs (including 45 3rd & 8-10, and 31 3rd & 11+.... with 6 INTs). That's 14% of his snaps coming in 3rd & 8+. 24% of Henne's snaps came in 2nd & 8+. Total, that's 38% of his snaps coming in 8+ yard unfavorable situations while we have a ground game that doesn't scare anyone & personnel not appropriately suited for it.
     
  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    How's this for similar passing situations?????
    1st down. (probably the greatest neutralizer since there are no downs before it to affect anything).

    Henne: 67.2%.. 1497.. 8.2 avg.. 6 TD.. 6 INT.. 61 1st downs (33.3%).. 87.6 QBR
    Ryan..: 59.7%.. 1195.. 6.3 avg.. 3 TD.. 2 INT.. 52 1st downs (26.7%).. 82.2 QBR.
    .

    (Henne was better on 1st down despite Atlanta having a more balanced offense & better ground game. Thanks to our terrible ground game, 1st down was basically our only unpredictable down, where as Atlanta's ground game allowed Ryan & the Falcon offense to be more balanced and less predictable despite the down & distance. This was even more true for Matt Cassel & Josh Freeman.)



    Then, 2nd down comes:
    **if our ground game is working and does well on 1st down (or we complete a pass on 1st), Henne plays well on 2nd b/c the down is still less predictable & the offense can be more balanced.

    2nd & <6
    Henne: 18/24... 75.0%... 6.9 avg... 17 first downs (71%)... 1 TD... 0 INT... 107.3 QBR.
    Ryan: 20/32..... 62.5%... 5.9 avg... 14 first downs (44%)... 3 TD... 0 INT... 106.3 QBR.



    So far, so good. We've got 2 ideal, consecutive, equal situations where Henne clearly appeared the better performer.


    From here, it all goes to hell as too many influencing variables become involved (mainly the ground game, injuries to WRs/TEs and lack of depth making longer down & distances more difficult to convert, and coaching/playcalling-- being pulled for a WC and then being put back in during a longer down & distance after it fails).
     
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Let's also throw the following out there since it, too, is on fairly even ground:

    Misthrown passes (underthrown, overthrown, thrown wide)

    Henne: 67 of 490 attempts. (13.67%)
    Ryan: 96 of 571 attempts. (16.81%)



    Passes defended
    Henne: 37 (7.55%)
    Ryan: 45 (7.88%)


    What stands out most to me about this is:
    1. Henne was in more predictable passing situations thanks to no ground game.
    2. Henne was throwing to more players whom he had less experience & timing with.
    3. Ryan didn't have an OC running a passing game based on more predictable 5 step drops.
     
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  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    2 posts ago I covered 1st & 2nd down, so it's time for 3rd down.


    {We know Henne plays well on 1st down, and he plays outstanding on 2nd & <6.}


    Now, staying with the theory of the ground game actually contributing, if Thomas, Bush, and Lex can do their job and pick up 3-5 yards on 1st or 2nd down (which you'd expect from a balanced offense or a team capable of running), then Henne would be in 3rd & 3-7.

    3rd & 3-7
    Henne: 39/55... 70.9%... 8.2 avg... 4 TD... 0 INT...... 35 1st downs (64%)...... 119.7 QBR
    Ryan..: 53/86... 60.9%... 6.6 avg...10 TD.. 1 INT...... 44 1st downs (51%)...... 114.0 QBR



    So, all things being equal, when the ground game is doing its job (like the Falcons accomplish more often), Henne actually appears to be a more efficient passer than Ryan. The problem I noticed after watching all of Atlanta's snaps and comparing them to Miami's-----> was that Miami's running game seemed all over the place. Only a few times during the year did it hit a groove to where defenses were kept honest and Henne wasn't forced to do the bulk of the work in moving the team 50-99 yards for a TD or FG.

    We'd have a good run of 5 or 6 yards on one set of downs, and then we'd follow it up with 2 or 3 runs for 1 total yard during the rest of the drive. We couldn't "manufacture" points the same way a great baseball team does (which is even harder when your field position is consistently bad). Atlanta was the opposite. I think this factor helped keep them more balanced, unpredictable, and tougher to defend on 2nd & long. Not to mention, an addition short field opportunity here and there certainly didn't hurt. And I will say this---- on 3rd & long, is there a better guy in the league than Roddy White?
     
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  6. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Well, I must say that Todd has pretty much served up one hell of a poop sandwich to some people.
     
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  7. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

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    Well, I've always been a Henne supporter and still am... But I guess the INT stats from last year ends the debate on whether he throws a catchable ball! Dan Henning was 95% of the reason Chad regressed last season. From sophomore slump to solid starter is what I envision, if not better.
     
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  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Great info Todd!!! Much appreciated. It looks like Henne is doing great on 1st and 10, 2nd and <6, and 3rd and 3-7. So what down and distances are really killing him from a QBR perspective? 3rd and >7? 2nd >6? Those look like the two not accounted for. On at least one of those he must really drop off.
     
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  9. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    I must disagree to a point. The original post spoke about if we did better in every category that Henne isn't involved in ( Running game, Defense, and Special Teams ) then we could win more games, and put Henne in the best possible situation. To me that sounds like you are trying to win despite your QB, you are trying to minimize his effect on the game.

    As for Henne possibly, and I stress the word POSSIBLY, being better than Ryan... maybe. I feel like Ryan is over hyped. But I haven't seen many QB's play as bad as Henne in the 4th quarter.

    Henne's QB Rating in the 4th Qtr. +/-3 points is 32, Ryan's is 79. According to SI. I might be misinterpreting the stats. If so feel free to correct me. But if I am interpreting it correctly when it's a close game in the 4th Henne goes down the toilet, severely.

    I guess my overarching point is if we have to minimize the impact of our QB or have to put him in ideal situations in order for him to succeed then that in itself means we don't have a quality QB.
     
  10. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Why such a limited comparison? Thats just one of many situations that could be compared. Why limit it just 3rd and 3-7, a 3rd and 3 isn't really a passing down? These are the situations you argued Henne was put in too often:

    3rd and 6+

    Cassel: 87.4 QBR
    Ryan: 88.1 QBR
    Henne: 64.7 QBR

    :dunno:
     
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  11. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There is more tortured, complex analysis going on to prove Chad Henne is a good QB then there is to solving the defecit.
     
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  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Henne's QBR on 2nd and <6 is 107.3. Matt Cassel's is 121.9

    Regardless, how is Henne's performance on 3rd and >6 so much worse than Cassel's or Ryans? All three are in the situation because the running game didn't help the first two downs, and they are obvious passing downs.
     
  13. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    You might want to pass that along to Sparano and the offensive staff where it could do some good, not being sarcastic mind you, but we have no control in that area.

    Started a thread on this subject over a year ago and I seem to remember alot of reasons that Atlanta had this and that while we had nothing; were pointed out to me as excuses for the difference.

    My personal feeling then as now is that they had/have a team spirit, a plan, and consistant followthru in both areas! When one compares player to player we are not that different but when comparing staff to staff they are far and away better than we are imvho. And that is the real difference!
     
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  14. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    If it's 3rd & 3 even this guy could convert it:

    [​IMG]

    Really this is just an excuse to reference Bubby Brister. I just love saying the name "Bubby" much less adding "Brister" at the end. :lol:
     
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  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Back in the old days it wasn't but anymore I'd bet 90% of teams are in the gun on 3rd and 3. They could still run of course, but to me it indicates more of a willingness to want to treat it as a passing down.
     
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  16. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I'm not sure you get what Todd is explaining. He's not saying that Henne needs to be "minimized". He's showing that Ryan, over the course of his career, has played on better teams and thus benefited from the play of his teammates. Ryan still had to make the throws, however, Todd has proven that Ryan has had less pressure on him due to the situations in which he made those throws.

    No one, including Todd, has claimed that Henne is better than Ryan. In fact Todd has clearly written that it's impossible to know for sure unless they switch teams. However, there is a very good case for believing that Henne would play as well as Ryan if the Dolphins had a good running game like the Falcons.

    When you just throw out 4th quarter stats without including the context of each stat it loses substance. The Falcons, as Todd has shown, helped Ryan more than the Dolphins helped Henne. This includes in the 4th quarter. However, when you take each quarter back and compare the same situations, Henne has better numbers. You can't claim Ryan is better by just pointing out his 4th quarter QBR without telling us how he earned that rating. Todd proved that Henne plays as well as Ryan when the Dolphins TEAM plays as well as the Falcons team.
     
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  17. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    We can call it whatever we want to, helping or minimizing, the fact is we need other players to reduce the role that Henne has to play. Either by getting better yardage on runs or more turnovers. All those things reduce the importance of Henne performance in the game. You can win the aspects mentioned in the OP: running game, defensive battle, turn overs, Special teams, and it would result in a win. But at the end of the day you still have a below average QB. Maybe your team can over come that.. but doing all those things doesn't MAKE YOUR QB BETTER, it MAKES HIM LESS IMPORTANT.

    But the Dolphins did have a good running game in 2008 (#4 in the NFL) and Henne still had a below average QB rating and I believe his INTs were still more than his TDs. But then you start arguing about weapons.. Henne didn't have a #1 WR and a HOF TE like Ryan... as you can tell this can go on forever.

    I want a QB better than Ryan. I think Ryan is overhyped for all the very reasons you all are quoting.

    You can say it loses meaning to you and that is fine. You are the judge of what is relevant and important to your beliefs and opinions.
     
  18. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Where did you find your info?

    And did you not read where Todd showed 1st and 2nd down stats with different yardage? You accuse him of using a "limited comparison" and then try to refute his numbers by using ONE situation and ONE stat?
     
  19. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    I still don't think you understand the point. Again, no one is saying Henne needs a "reduced role" in order to play better. Todd's point is Ryan has had a better TEAM and thus has played better because of that. The point is, when the TEAM plays badly it's hard to determine if the QB is good or bad. However, when you compare similar circumstances, Henne matches up well with Ryan.

    2008? Henne played in 3 games in 2008 and had 12 passing attempts with 0TD's and 0INT's. But thanks for agreeing that a good running game helped out Pennington too.
     
  20. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    I do get the point. I am all over the point.

    And it was the 2008 - 2009 season. I just referred to it as 2008, mistakenly.

    Here is our rushing game rated 4th that season:
    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst..._YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

    And here is Henne ranked 22 out of 32 in QBR that season:
    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...gory=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING

    For the record I didn't agree that Penning was helped out by a good ground game.
     
  21. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Game charting provided by Football Outsiders

    The argument is that the running game's failure on 1st and 2nd down put Henne in unfavorable 3rd down situations, which skewed his overall performance. So by focusing on the performance of QBs on 3rd and 6, we can focus on how every QB did when put in those unfavorable situations.
     
  22. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Huh?

    In the 2008-2009 season Pennington was the Dolphins QB.

    Henne was our QB in the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons. We are now entering the 2011-2012 season.
     
  23. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Todd did that already. He compared Henne to Ryan on 3rd down and 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Henne's numbers compared favorably.
     
  24. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I meant 3rd and 6+, which is a worse situation. I wouldn't consider 3-6 as a third and long.
     
  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    2nd & long and 3rd & long killed him.

    2nd & 6+ killed him (63.1 QBR, 56.5%, 5.1 avg, 2 TD, 3 INT, 30 1st downs (22%)...... especially since 82% of those were 8+ yards.

    and then 3rd & 8-10 and 3rd & 10+ is where it gets even worse:

    3rd & 8-10: 54.9 QBR.... 52.5%... 7.7 avg... 1 TD... 3 INT.... 14 1st downs (35%).
    3rd & 10+: 28.1 QBR.... 53.6%... 5.0 avg... 0 TD... 3 INT..... 5 1st downs (18%).


    Throwing 31+ attempts also killed him (which is understandable b/c we weren't meant to throw it 30+ times/game:
    31-40 attempts: 45.5 QBR... 55.7%... 5.6 avg... 2 TD... 6 INT.... 19 1st downs (27%)
    40+ attempts..: 46.6 QBR... 61.5%... 6.1 avg... 0 TD... 1 INT.... 3 1st downs (23%)
     
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  26. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    What do you mean limited?
    You asked for a specific situation did you not? lol. I provided 3.

    I used those stats b/c everything starts with 1st down.

    With all things equal (Miami's ground game performs as well as Atlanta's), then the next chronological step is 2nd & less than 6 <b/c that's the down and distance you should be in when you're playing well on 1st down>.

    The next chronological step is 3rd & 3-7 if an offense (especially ground game) succeeds on 1st and/or 2nd. I didn't use 3rd & 0-2 b/c that's more of a running down and our backs were terrible in the passing game.


    So, these 3 circumstances are very much related. I compared Henne to Ryan from 1st down to 3rd down during the situations they should be facing if their surrounding cast does its job.



    I didn't use 3rd & 6+ b/c there are too many variables involved. Nothing about that down that can be compared to Cassel & Ryan IMO. Our personnel was different, playcalling was different, time in the pocket to throw was different, timing involved during longer routes was likely different with Henne throwing to practice squad guys, and like I said before----- we're not a team built to convert on 3rd & long.

    Cassel has Charles, McCluster, and Bowe (all are dangerous guys who can pick up yards & make plays for him).

    Ryan has the best 3rd & long guy in the game (White) and one of the smartest, vet receiving TEs to ever play (Gonzalez), not to mention Snelling & Turner can make plays, too.

    Henne had a cast of misfits, slow backs who aren't a threat, injured or out of shape Marshall, injured Hartline, and guys like Bess playing out of position or being covered up on 3rd & long b/c defenses didn't really have to worry about anyone else on our offense.


    3rd & 6+:
    Charles & McCluster.... 14 catches.... 154 yards.. 11.00 avg (mostly all YAC).
    Ricky & Ronnie............ 6 catches...... 31 yards.... 5.12 avg. (Ricky 5/30; Ronnie 1/1).
    Snelling & Mughelli..... 21 catches.... 195 yards.... 9.29 avg. (2 big TD runs after catch)
     
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  27. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    All of these stats don't mean ****.Time to move on for all of us its a new season and henne has one more year to prove himself.I have bashed him in the past but i am praying he turns the corner this year because i am sick of losing.If he doesn't improve hes gone along with the coach and we will be starting over again.
     
  28. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    It also doesn't hurt Ryan's 3rd & 6+ QBR when he can dump off a pass to his running backs who then scamper for a 90 yarder & 60 yard TD.

    What's also being left out are Ryan's easy dropped INTs that he got away with.
     
  29. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I guess nearly every QB will have his worst QBR on 3rd and 10+. We just need to limit those situations and/or find ways to increase success in those situations.
     
  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :D

    Again, woe is me. It's not so out of this world Henne did throw 15 INTs the year before.
     
  31. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I respect your post (and agree with half of it) but the bold part isn't really fair.
    Every team needs to put their QB in the position to succeed. Good QBs will take advantage of this and win you games; bad QBs will still be a liability.
    You can't expect a QB to win games for you when put in more unfavorable than favorable circumstances. Even Peyton Manning fails when not in a position to succeed. IMO the difference between Henne & Ryan is the Falcons made life much easier for Matt.

    I just think you're taking my point to the extreme.
    Nobody's saying Henne needs to be in an ideal situation to succeed; what we are saying is that Henne, like all young QBs, needs to be placed more often in a position to succeed, b/c when he is, he wins. He doesn't have to be in ideal situations all the time; he only has to be in great situations enough times during a game to where we have a chance to win. This lets us convert more drives & score more points so that when other 3rd & longs come up during the game, there isn't as much pressure to force a throw etc. We'd be ABLE to dump off more low-risk passes to Bush and see if he can turn it into a 60 or 90 yard gain like Snelling & Mughelli did for Ryan.


    Also, if we can't put our QB in a position to succeed, then we're not a SB team no matter who's QB.

    Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Joe Thiesmann, Phil Simms, Jim Plunkett, and Bob Griese all needed to be in great positions to succeed, and when they were in those positions, they took advantage. That's like 15 SB wins & 4 HOF'ers.

    When you're not afforded the right opportunity to succeed, you end up having an Archie Manning type career when it would've been a HOF career if he played for the Steelers.
     
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  32. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    since when are 15 INTs as a 1st year player considered a bad thing?
     
  33. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's not what I'm saying at all. Quite the opposite really.
    You're not looking to reduce his role; you're looking to improve his role and take advantage of the things that he does really well rather than putting him in positions that very few QBs in the NFL could succeed in.

    This is still a team game. 11 on offense against 11 guys trying to stop them. 1 man isn't carrying a team if his guys are outmatched and/or out-coached.

    A dismantled Oline is outmatched.
    Wallace, Moore, Pruitt, and our 17 practice squad TEs were outmatched (except when we played an injury plagued Raiders defense).
    Dan Henning is outmatched trying to find his keys.
    Ricky & Ronnie were outmatched.
     
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  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    How does it make him less important?
    How does a 100 QB Rating, 70% completions, and an outstanding ability to convert 1st downs during these situations make a QB any less important?
    I don't understand that. These are outstanding numbers. If he becomes less important during these situations, then it means our ground game is rushing for like 8 yards/carry. LOL. If that were the case--- sure, I'll let him be less important. :tongue2:



    We're not trying to make Henne "less important" during these situations (where he plays great); we're trying to get other guys to become more important since this is a team game.
    We're trying to get other guys to become more important since we're a team that wants to run the ball, and you can't be such and ask your QB to throw it 35+ times/game. We can win a lot of games with Henne if we have solid balance and more big play ability so that other guys can help us win rather than hinder our ability to do so.


    Why would you want to overcome all those other things and then go away from your strength?
    If you have the top 3rd down converter in the NFL (during non long situations), you don't look for ways to reduce this role. If he's the top 3rd down converter, then let's put him in situations where we can maximize this ability and see if that doesn't help improve the lagging areas. That's what it's all about---- identifying your strengths. Is it too much to ask a ground game to do its job, rather than giving them a pass and blaming the QB for not being able to make up for their ineptitude? Is it too much to ask the ground game to pick up a consistent 3-5 yards on 1st or 2nd down so that Henne can do what he does best--- move the chains? Isn't that how points come about? You move the chains.... you move the chains.... you move them some more.... and before you know it, you're in FG range knocking on the door of a TD.



    Everything has to be in context, too. You cant be a running team and expect your QB to convert 3rd & longs with a bunch of misfits or possession WRs/TEs/RBs.
    Henne doesn't have a problem completing passes (his completion % and number of passes off target compared to Ryan's testify to that).
    Henne doesn't have a problem completing 8-12 yard passes (his higher yards per attempt than Ryan's also testifies to that).




    What it comes down to is coaching, personnel, injuries, timing, and a team that doesn't constantly have its QB under pressure situations during 2nd or 3rd & long.

    Do you think Matt Ryan is looking to risk a pass on 2nd or 3rd & long when his special teams is doing its job and gaining field position and not having melt downs at the worst possible time?
    Is Ryan risking a pass when his defense is keeping him in the game (IE: not giving up excessive, game-changing 30+ yard TD passes like we did all year)?
    Is Ryan being forced to throw on 3rd down with a Falcon lead b/c their ground game has them moving backward instead of forward (like our Detroit game)? :lol:
     
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  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO, we already know one part of the equation--- that Henne is elite at 3rd down conversions when we pick up 3-7 yards on 1st & 2nd down. (we also know that Bess & Marshall are elite in this aspect, too, b/c they allow Henne to max his potential during this situation. So I guess that makes 3 important parts of the equation)


    Now, instead of trying to redo the entire equation from scratch, wouldn't it be easier to solve for "X" and see where that gets us first (with X being a ground game that's effective on 1st & 2nd down).

    I say this b/c----- we don't know what kind of 3rd down conversion success (the ability to move the chains) with a new QB. We can't assume that any QB in the NFL would have the same success, chemistry, and timing here in the same situation, and we especially can't assume that a rookie would. So it's possible that we'd end up robbing Peter to pay Paul. Maybe we improve other areas but then struggle in converting 1st downs..... or maybe we struggle in both.

    That's why IMO it makes more sense to see exactly what we have this year b/c Henne's conversion success & ability to complete passes at a high rate in the situations I listed aren't something you want to just throw away. Those are prime situations you want to find yourself in. Those are situations, that if you can put yourself in them, you're winning games.


    67% completions, 75 % completions, 71% completions. 33% 1st downs per attempt, 71% first downs, 64% first downs.

    That's Henne on 1st down and 2nd & 3rd in non-long situations. That's winning you games and possibly a superbowl with the defense we're excited about, solid special teams play (which you cant win without), and a ground game that does more to help us than hurt us.
     
  36. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    mbmonk, are you saying you'd prefer to have a bad offense with an elite QB trying to win games rather than a great team that isn't forced to always rely on its QB?

    B/c it seems to me we should be focusing on what kind of QB play we need when we're a great overall team, not focus on what kind of QB we need when we're a bad offense. Right? I mean, if we play great as a team and we're good enough to make a super bowl run, isn't it more important how a QB plays in that scenario rather than how he plays when the offense is broken as whole? Henne's efficiency in the situations I listed are exactly what you want when we're playing great team football.

    The Falcons were that kind of team last year. Atlanta didn't win 13 games b/c of Ryan; they won 13 b/c they're a great team. He did what Henne does under similar, favorable circumstances---- he wins games, doesn't do much to cost you games, and will occasionally pull one out for you on his own. Atlanta doesn't need a QB to win them games every week, which completely contradicts everything that half this forum has said (regarding us being screwed etc until we get an elite QB who can win it on his own).
     
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  37. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Unfavorable can have many meanings on 3rd & 6.
    Do you mean "unfavorable" b/c it's 3rd & 6?.... or do you mean "unfavorable" b/c you have an injured line, practice squad guys playing, no outlet backs, no running game which causes you to throw on 3rd & 6+ even though you have a lead, or how about forcing a throw on 3rd & 6+ b/c your defense just gave up another 30+ yard TD pass and you're now playing from a deficit rather than a lead?
     
  38. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    So let manufacture an example to better illustrate my point.

    Lets say THEORETICALLY this years Colts team w/ Manning would go 11-5 if he is healthy and plays the entire year. But Manning gets hurt and Chad Henne gets traded to the Colts to play QB. So the Colts need the rest of their team to play better ( aka a more important role ) in order to still reach that 11 - 5 mark. So they need to do better in the running game, they need to get more turnovers on D, they need to win the Special teams battles ( all the items from the OP ). If they do all of that and they end up at 11 -5 at the end of the season. Did that mean Henne was as good as Manning? No. Of course not. It meant that the other aspects of the team had to play a bigger role and reduce the importance of the QB.

    We see it all the time with the current Jets, the Superbowl winning Ravens w/ Trent Dilford etc.

    So in essence what some are saying is Henne was not a good enough QB to handle the situation that he was put in last year and we need other people to step up (aka reduce his importance in the offense) in order to win more games. My point is we need Henne, himself, to improve. If all the things in the OP come true and Henne doesn't improve his game, we win more games but still have a below average QB.

    Now, lets look at the list of scape goats that come out in Henne threads. Oline, all the running backs, O cordinator, all the WR's except Bess it seems, TEs, Defense dropping INTs (lol), Special Teams, and the Wildcat. Everybody but Henne is mentioned. Henne is always the victim.

    Henne has one of the few, very few, #1 receivers that require a double team in the NFL. Having a true #1 receiver like Marshall makes it easier to read coverages as the QB, because Marshall dictates them. Henne also has the 2nd best slot receiver in the NFL. Who also requires a double team. So he had some tools last year and still played like a turd. Especially in the 4th Quarter.

    It just seems like people are looking for everyone else, besides Henne himself, to improve so that we can win games. We need HENNE to improve.

    That's all I am saying. That is my singular point about this entire thread.
     
  39. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    The reason people want an Elite QB is because it gives you a chance to go to and win multiple Super Bowls in the modern era, notice I am not talking about SB 1- 20. How many teams went and or won multiple Super Bowls where they depended on a strong running game and an elite defense while having a middling QB?

    Those type teams might go or win it once ( Ravens ) but they rarely do so back to back or appear multiple times. If you have an elite QB like Manning or Brady you have much better chances to go back multiple times. At least that is my thoughts on that topic.

    So I agree you can win w/o an Elite QB, history has proven it's the case, but you are much more likely to have repeated and consistent success w/ an Elite QB than w/o.
     
  40. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    But your "singular point" doesn't make sense.

    Once again, I'm not sure if you understand what Todd is saying.

    You think that if Henne improves the team will win more games. Well, if Henne were to become P. Manning this team most likely would win a few more games. However, the rest of the team has played so poorly that 7-9 may become 9-7...is that what you want? What Todd has PROVEN...is that when put in the same situations as Ryan he plays like a very good QB. That's not requiring Henne to play better...it's requiring the TEAM to play better.

    Let me try to explain it to you in a different way using boxing.

    Let's say that I'm the Heavyweight Champ of the world. I've been going through people like Ali used to in his prime and I'm 30-0 with 29 KO's. Now, there is also another fighter who has a record of 15-15 with 15 KO's. However, in his 15 losses he was made to fight with one of his arms tied behind his back. In his 15 wins he was allowed to use both arms and knocked out all opponents. Would you still claim that this boxer needs to get better or would you see that his one armed fighting is the reason he has 15 losses?

    The same thing applies to Henne. He has SHOWN that he can play at a very high level when he has the use of both arms (his team plays better).

    Look at it this way. You claim that if Henne became Manning or Brady that the Dolphins would somehow start winning Super Bowls. Well, the numbers prove that to be wrong. When Manning or Brady's team have had below average running attacks and/or below average defenses they fail to win the Super Bowl. Manning, in his 13 years of playing, has played on teams with a defense ranked 5th or better twice and has one Super Bowl to show for it. Although, the year he won their defense was ranked 21st in the league. That is so rare that only 3 QB's have ever won a SB with a defense ranked in the bottom half of the legue. Brady hasn't been able to win a Super Bowl with a defense ranked worse than 5th. In his 9 years of playing he's had a defense ranked 5th or better all but 3 times. Out of those three times he failed to make the playoffs once, failed to win more than 10 games twice, and never won a Super Bowl.
     
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