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Money League Fantasy Team

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by GridIronKing34, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I had the #1 overall pick, which I hated because there's a lot of pressure. I had a hard time deciding on Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson, but I felt like Peterson was a safer pick while Foster is a bit more of a boom or bust. I could see him being a force, but I also could see him really falling. Nonetheless, here's my team:

    QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford
    RB: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Bush, Tashard Choice
    WR: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Percy Harvin, Mike Thomas
    TE: Jimmy Graham, Chris Cooley
    K: None
    DEF: Chargers

    QB - RB - RB - WR - WR - TE - RB/WR - WR/TE - K - DEF

    I am going to make a game-day decision on a kicker, probably dropping Choice. The QBs and WRs were being drafted early so I had no choice but to take Turner and McFadden in rounds 2 & 3 out of value. Thoughts?
     
  2. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    Very good work, feel like Big Ben is a tad under rated...rbs are stacked wrs look good. Like the team
     
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  3. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Good team but if its PPR, turner is virtually worthless in an important aspect of your team. You have McFadden...I would try and move Turner for an upgrade at WR. WR's always have up and down years and im not sold on Steve Johnson or Brandon Lloyd repeating those years. Fox has alwready told Orton to look at other options besides Lloyd and without Evans you have to be skeptical about Johnson because they simply have nothing else around him. I might consider some kind of 3-2 type deal...Lloyd and Turner for lesser RB, more proven WR, more proven TE (maybe Gates or Whitten...stay away from Tony G imo)

    Like your RB's, like your TE's (even though Cooley went to see James Andrews..may wanna look at a guy like Brandon Pettigrew or Julius Thomas), like Harvin and Thomas....wouldnt rely on them as starters though
     
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  4. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    It's PPR, but barely. 1 point per ten receptions... so it's hardly worth worrying about.

    I think Marshall will have a better year and I think Lloyd will be a 70 catch, 1000 yard, 8 TD kind of guy, personally. Orton will play and Lloyd is his favorite target. I am thinking someone will pan out between Stevie Johnson, Percy Harvin, and Mike Thomas.

    To each their own, I suppose. Thanks for your input, it's appreciated.

    My line-up will look like so, if anyone is wondering:

    QB - Roethlisberger
    RB - Peterson
    RB - Turner
    WR - Marshall
    WR - Lloyd
    TE - Graham
    RB/WR - McFadden
    WR/TE - Johnson/Harvin/Thomas/Cooley (match-up based)
    K - Will drop Choice for one before the season, things aren't looking so good for him in Dallas.
    DEF - Chargers
     
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  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Damn, remind me to stay out of your league for a few years; this will be my first year playing FF.

    In a normal league with a high #1 pick, is the value always at running back? At what point in the first do you consider QB or WR?



    signed,

    your friendly novice about to have his arse handed to him which will likely kill my football beer buzz unless Miami wins 11+ games. :lol:
     
  6. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    It depends on the point system, but normally I'd say so. I don't think I'd draft a quarterback in the first round other than maybe Aaron Rodgers.... but that'd would have to be late in the first round.

    Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, then Ray Rice is my board for the top five of fantasy drafts. After that I'd probably go Michael Turner, LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall... after that point, I'd begin to consider taking a top tier quarterback (Rodgers) or WR (A.Johnson).
     
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  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    With Julio & Roddy on the outside and Atlanta's line intact (IIRC), I'm thinking Turner has a really big year, especially TD wise (like 1500 & 15 excluding receiving).
    I'm with you--- Foster makes me apprehensive.
    Chris Johnson scares me a little this year depending on who's at QB and what's up with the dingbat at WR.
    Jamaal IMO is due for a huge season with Breaston (and potentially Baldwin) joining Bowe.
    McCoy is the kind of guy that I'm always wondering when his season ending injury kicks in.


    Are there times early in the draft that you prefer to go with solid, less-risky picks who virtually guarantee you quality points but maybe not quite the ceiling as the winning lottery ticket? Or is it the kind of thing where, if you practice that type of philosophy, you do so for the entire draft?
     
  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    what kind of numbers would a QB have to put up for you to consider him with a top 5 or even #1 pick? Arena league stuff?
     
  9. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I'm a bit safer when I do my drafts.. at least in my mind I pick what's safe. I think guys like Brandon Lloyd are safe, but maybe someone like Boik doesn't. There are guys I won't touch (Peyton Hillis is one of them) because I think they won't have the same performance as last year. I go with the risky picks later in the draft when it won't hurt you quite as much. Maybe try a flyer on Brandon Jacobs or Jonathan Stewart in the 9th round even though they aren't the starting back.
     
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  10. PeaTearGriffin

    PeaTearGriffin Season Ticket Holder

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    It all depends on how you like to play. Some people prefer boom or bust. They are either going to win it or finish last. They are the ones that are taking Vick #1 overall. I tend to play safe for the first 3 rounds and then start to take more chances.
     
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  11. PeaTearGriffin

    PeaTearGriffin Season Ticket Holder

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    BTW, I like the team GIK. If Cooley is out look for Pettigrew like Boik said. Or you could jump on the Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks band wagon.
     
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  12. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Its all dependant on your leagues scoring format. In PPR leagues, receivers get a slight boost but I still usually go running back if there is a guy who is a lock to see the ball 20+ times a game around like a CJ, Foster, AP, Ray Rice etc

    For me to consider a Qb in round 1 the other choices would have to be so banged up or just in bad situations (i.e. Fitzgerald in Arizona with no QB last year)

    84 Marino...along those lines. But again it depends on the scoring format. If its points per completion that changes things
     
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  13. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Thanks Matt.

    To better understand it w/o having to learn the hard way, could I pull up the top players from each position from last year, total each one's points for the season (based on the settings of the league I join), and then compare them side by side? Would that give me an idea or is there still something missing?
     
  14. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing missing from that equation is that those are last years numbers. Circumstances change.

    For example: Dan Henning gets fired, Reggie Bush gets brought in, Brian Daboll gets brought in....more pass friendly offense. Chad Henne may be a viable QB2 in a larger league. Reggie Bush may be a viable RB 2 on a good team if indeed he is going to run it between the tackles and play like a primary back and in PPR leagues he really may be worth more. Marshall's productivity may go up because of better play calls...its all circumstantial and based on what you think of future outcomes. Investing in the past in Fantasy NFL leagues is bargaining for failure after your handful of sure things like a Larry Fitzgerald, MJD, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson, Ray Rice types.

    Be safe at the top of your draft...first 3-5 rounds should be sure things. After that...upside upside upside. You think Eric Decker is going to go nuts as Denvers #2, get him. You think Jimmy Graham is going to break out or Lance Kendricks is going to be this years Rob Gronkowski/Tony Moeaki? You make a point to get those types players in the later mid rounds (right before you draft kickers and defenses later)...guys who will probably be reserves but could end up as starters or outplaying a guy you drafted to be a starter.

    If all you care about is last year, go for it but it does you no good this year. If you draft based on last year Larry Fitzgerald is your #10 or so WR. If you really think Fitzgerald is your #10 WR then I want to be in a money league with you. :)
     
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  15. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Thanks for the extra stuff, Matt.... and no you can't have any of my money. lol.

    I think I miscommunicated what I was trying to say. I thought I could try to figure out the value of each position in general by looking at last year's players (since the season is done).


    Let's say:
    Arian Foster's total 2010 points were X.
    Tom Brady's were Y.
    Andre Johnson's were Z.
    Packers D were W.
    Janikowski's were U.

    Would using 2010's end of year point totals serve as a reference for how I should rank my 2011 guys/defenses? Since I'm uncertain about how the points of the top 2011 kicker will roughly fair against the points of the top defense, and I'm not sure how the top 2011 QB will fare against the top 2011 WR, I thought I could use last year's numbers as a baseline if that makes sense.

    But since the points are done weekly, I just wasn't sure if using the end of year stats as a baseline were flawed or misleading.
     
  16. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I am in the camp where you take defense and kicker with your last two picks available... some people disagree with me, but that's just how I feel.

    I use the 2010 numbers as guidelines, but kind of "predict" where their stats will fall. Like the history of Adrian Peterson tells me he's good for a 1200-1400 yard season with 12+ touchdowns so that's kind of how I think his numbers will play out. Here is some of my logic when drafting...

    Try to get two very good running backs (lately my combinations have been Jamaal Charles/Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashard Mendenhall/LeSean McCoy, and the above) first and foremost. I shoot for having my running back duo set by the end of round three, at the latest.

    However if that 2nd round pick comes along and I don't like any of the running backs available at that slot (for example, Peyton Hillis in the 2nd? I'll pass), I'll take a top tier quarterback if his name is Mike Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Phillip Rivers (not in this order though). Peyton Manning is a maybe because of his status being up in the air. I'm not a huge fan of taking guys like Calvin Johnson and such early, just never been someone who likes taking those big name wide receivers over a running back.

    Wide receivers are tricky business. If it looks like there's not a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round worth taking, I'll take a wide receiver. Unless of course, a very good running back falls further than he should. I feel like I can compete with guys who fall in the 4th and 5th round at receiver such as Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe, etc. However some people believe you need that stud at receiver, but I disagree.

    Tight ends tend to go and there is a run on them. So there is one round where everyone decides to take a tight end. Just remember, don't reach. The big tight ends are Gates, Witten, Finley (who I am wary about), Clark, and V.Davis (also wary about). However I think you can get some quality tight ends later in the draft such as Jimmy Graham, Todd Heap, and Rob Gronkowski.

    Basically just don't reach for someone. If Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Manning are off the board while it's your pick in round three and you don't have a quarterback... don't reach for one. Just go best available, whether that be someone like Reggie Wayne or Darren McFadden...

    My fantasy philosophy is a little more old school with wanting to have good running backs, but everyone is different. I'm not that guy that is going to take Mike Vick #1 overall.

    Keep in mind this is for non-PPR, 10-12 team league format. If it's PPR, it's a tad different... guys like Davone Bess and Danny Amendola become legitimate options to actually start.
     
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  17. PeaTearGriffin

    PeaTearGriffin Season Ticket Holder

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    You have to dig a little deeper then just looking at their point totals.

    In most leagues the top scorers are QBs. If I remember correctly last year 9 of the top 10 scorers from 2010 were in fact QBs(depending on scoring system). The argument against taking a QB early is more about scarcity. If you play in a 10 team or 12 team league there are plenty of QBs that score 200+ points. And in most years the difference between the #1 QB and 10th QB is about 3 points per game. Not that big of a difference(Vick being the outlier to this last year). Plus, when you get to bye weeks you can always find QBs on the waiver wire that put up decent points(Garrard, Fitzpatrick, and Freeman). However, depending on how you play, a lot of people are starting to QBs earlier because they like have the consistency of the elite options.

    Ever since I started playing fantasy RB has always been the first couple picks minus one year with Brady. People feel safe that they will get their touches and when its down on the 1 the RB is usually one of the first options. RB have a much greater difference in points per game, its usually 6 point difference from the number 1 RB to number 20 one. The other reason you draft RB(or WR) early is because of depth. In most leagues I play in we start 2 RBs and 2 WRs with a FLEX(a position where I could start either). In a 10 team league that is 50 total RBs and WRs combined that start. With so many slots to fill most peoples benches consist of RBs and WRs so when say your star RB has his bye week the pickings are very slim on the waiver wire.

    WR I view almost as equal as RB. The only reason I tend to take RB ahead of WR is because they see more touches. WR have a little lower point per game separation from #1 to #20 then RB but are still higher then QBs(Non-PPR leagues, Boik should be able to give you more info on PPR). When it comes down to WRs for me its all about targets and talent.

    Last year most people viewed the TE position extremely deep. A full season and a few injuries later and only 3 TEs put up 130+ points. 2 others scored 100 and then 12 scored from 95-70. Every preseason there are the over hyped TEs but in my honest opinion you want to get elite and hope they stay healthy instead of playing the mix and match game every week.

    Kickers should be your last pick. No matter what. You'll never be able to predict who will be the top 5 scorers and the difference in points per game is very very small. Do not panic if you see others drafting kickers in the 12 round. They are making a mistake while you'll be scooping up someone you view a sleeper.

    Now for Defense. I always take one the second to last round. Mostly because people tend to always over draft them. I'll see people waste a 8th round pick on a D(the Jets last year) and that same D won't finish in the top 5 in scoring. Just like kickers its to hard to predict who will be the top scorers. I just play the matchups each week and keep picking up my D on the waiver wire. So I draft the D who I view has an easy matchup week 1 and then will most likely drop them for another easy matchup week 2.

    This year if I can get everything to fall in line for me I plan for my first 5 rounds to fill my QB, TE, and some mix of RB, RB, WR or WR, WR, RB. Of course nothing goes to plan so if the stud QBs go really early I'm fine with waiting until the 8th round or 9th round to take my QB. Same goes with TE but if I miss on the elite options there I might just wait until round 12 or 13.
     
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  18. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No using your 2010 end of year totals should never serve as a reference as to how to rank defenses until you have looked at that defenses roster. Baltimore may have a very good defense this year but come 2012 and should for example Ray Lewis retire that 2011 ranking wouldnt account for the loss of Lewis. Conversely it doesnt account for additions either.

    The only times you should be using last years stats as a prediction of future success is on a game by game basis or to go back over a 2-3 year span and see who the most consistent performers in recent history are in your league format. If you know for example that the Colts offense historically struggles to score TD's vs Jacksonville under Jack Del Rio maybe you would consider starting someone other then Dallas Clark at TE or Reggie Wayne at WR if you have that kind of depth. If you are in a PPR league for example you will not find Michael Turner's name in the top 10 in most PPR formats because his lack of catches kills his production compared to half the backs available where as other backs like Lesean McCoy and Ray Rice see about a 5-7 ranking jump in PPR.

    And I usually save my D and K for my last 2-3 picks..sometimes i pick 2 D's and just go based on matchups all year if I feel I didnt get a dominant D like a Pitt or Balt. Drafting a D or a K anywhere other then that is a wasted pick as they mentioned above.
     
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