He has the same talents, but is in a system that allows those to be used. That's not the same as "being the same guy". That's the point of talent evaluation. You look at a player and isolate the skills he's showing from the system and the stats. Once you can do that, you can project if the player has the ability to be productive in a different system. Henne didn't develop more talent in one off season. He hasn't shown anything this preseason or in the first game that he didn't show at times previously. He wasn't even that inconsistent. His production was inconsistent, but that was the system. His play (decision making, accuracy, etc.) was remarkably consistent. Anybody who is surprised by his production simply was not paying attention to his talent level. They were paying attention to his production and not accounting for the system. But that's not talent evaluation. Talent evaluation is about identifying what talents the player has and how they compare and fit in this league.
Disagree Rafi, with the generalization anyway, Henne has shown far far better foot speed, and use of the shotgun, and less fear throwing into tight windows. That is very different from the 2010 Henne, along with improved accuracy on the 20 yd or longer stuff, he's not perfect there..yet, but to evaluate him you also have to see him repeatedly succeed or fail on those throws before coming to a conclusion.
The talent was already there. It was obvious for anybody who wanted to see it. This is exactly what I was trying to explain last year. That Henne's talent level was high enough that he could produce in a system that featured those talents. So now he's in a different system and is doing exactly that. Yet people want to pretend that these are new talents that didn't exist. This is why people suck at evaluating QBs. They can't see or separate the talent from the system or the stats.
Exactly! Chris Johnson is maybe the fastest player in the league. If you strap 50 lbs to his back he wouldnt outrun anybody, but he would still be the fastest player in the league. Except now he's asked to do something he never should have to do.
Hmm, the deep ball accuracy was not there, neither was the footspeed. Henne was always accurate, save for stuff 20yds or more down the field. I have maintained, and still do, Henne's upside is Jim Kelly, but he is a poor gamble to bet an entire season on.
Of course the talent was already there. Jamarcus Russell is talented. There is the mental aspect of the game. Plus anyone can tell he is quicker when running the ball this season.
Oh, you will fit right in here! ! Well, MPF, if you look a Kelly's career, he was never quite what people would think he was stats wise, his typical yr was 25 Td's/mid teen picks, he ran the KGun effectively, and up until 1990 or so, he could run the ball really well, he also used to take a pounding in that style of offense. He never topped 3,600 yds for example, his QBR was typically in the low 80's http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KellJi00.htm I believe Henne can do that, maybe more.
Not true at all. Henne was only the 2nd QB in Michigan history to start as a true freshman. Fifty schools offered him scholarships. His top 5 choices were Miami, Penn St, Tennessee, Georgia, and Michigan. Henne completed a lot of 20+ yd passes in college. He didn't just lose that ability...it was taken from him. He'll get it back...hell he's got it back. Was it 8 completions of 20 or more yds?
You just described Brady's average season. 25 TDs 13 INT's with a mid 80's QBR... Lol.... except Kelly did it at a time when passing the ball was hard.
UM was a long time ago MPF, and he had NFL caliber Wr's going against not that high a quality Cb's, in his time starting in Miami, he never consistently showed deep down the field accuracy..until MNF. The reason why I think he is a poor bet, is simply he has never shown he actually can do it for even 2/3's of a season, Henne typically starts strong, but finishes weak, that has been his pattern the prior 2 seasons, now I do have a ton of confidence in Daboll leading him through it, but if you don't know, then the answer is no in the NFL. Sparano is making one huge gamble on him, but when you see McCoy, whom the NFL media types fellated this offseason, struggling against a untalented Bengals secondary, you have to think Daboll had a huge hand in McCoy's success last yr.
Nah, Thurman Thomas drove that offensive bus, which is odd to think about, but you look at Kelly's numbers and you think.."he was better then that wasn't he?" Brady the last 4 yrs is a far more productive Qb then during his SB yrs, since maybe 06 Brady has been going upwards. Anyway, that is one of the reasons why I think Henne can match Kelly's numbers, probably surpass them depending on his accuracy in the RZ improving, which I believe (not think mind you) will happen, keep giving him opportunities in that situation and he will figure things out.
What? He played in the big ten...not the WAC. Where do you think a lot of the CB's he went against go after college? The NFL, that's where. Henna played Florida, Ohio state, USC, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Penn St, Northwestern, Iowa, Texas, Nebraska , Oregon, and Wisconsin during his career at Michigan. How many NFL CBs came from those schools? Again, he hasn't shown he could do it because he was tied up by an old, senile man. He didn't just learn to throw and run this past Monday night.
Last 4 years? 4 seasons ago Brady had 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 3500 yds, and an 86 QBR. And BB, videotape, and defense drove the Pats bus during the first half of the last decade. Since then, with bus driver Brady, they are 5 and 5 in the playoffs, Brady has a low 80s QBR in those games, and they have gone one and done 2 times. You can't just throw away more than half of Bradys career numbers and claim he's great. His full body of work to date shows that he's comparable with Kelly.
Did Henne really start strong last year though? Look at the Buffalo and Minnesota games, yea we won but he didn't play lights out. After those games he played pretty well and then tapered off. You make it sound like he started the season with multi 3td games and then turned in those atrocities at the end of the season. IMO this is one of the first games where he's really lit it up.
JR never showed the talent to be an NFL QB. If you think that then that explains why you couldn't see that Henne was able to run the ball as quickly before.
Deep ball accuracy has always been one of those things that improves with reps. If you have a player with a strong enough arm and enough intelligence to figure out the right trajectory then it's not something that you claim he doesn't have the talent to do. On the foot speed part, you're wrong. He showed it before, it was there, but it was infrequent. Now it's just so obvious that everybody can see it.
Yeah those people suck at evaluating. I mean, the dirtballs he threw, the shotputs, the wounded ducks. All due to the system he was in. Jeff George had a lot of talent. He could produce. Just never did. We need more than one game and the 30th ranked defense, in garbage time, to argue that those evaluations were wrong.
He didn't lose 50 pounds. He's saying he lost the 50 pound weight that's holding him back. The 50 pound weight is Dan Henning. At least, that's what I thought when I read it.
I know what he meant, he just didn't make any sense. Dan Henning weighs more than 50 pounds. I honestly do not understand the resistance to the idea that Henne has improved his play. That is what quarterbacks generally do.
I think that Henne is benefiting from the new OC and the QB friendly scheme he uses. There is a still some growing to do. I don't know if there is a 'new' Henne and I can't say after a couple of PS games and the first game of the season with success that the 'light' has come on he's now Aaron Rodgers double... We have to give the O time to develop and for the other D's to get some game film on what we're doing before we anoint him Dan Marino, part deux and I've been a big supporter of his all along...
It was likely coincidence, but last game's passer rating was darn near that of his preseason passer rating I believe. While he likely won't play every game as well as he did Monday (I can hope that's his worst game all season though, lol), perhaps it'll wind up where that 93 rating is his season total. We (fans) probably can't be so lucky though.
I think he'll be fine this year. They really need to get him some help. Fasano looked good and if they can use Bush correctly in the PA and as a checkdown, i think he have a great year.
So there is more than the shotputs, the throws into the dirt, and wounded ducks. Of course there is more. There are also the INTs, missed deep wide open receivers, etc. etc. I was just being nice. Thanks for pointing it out.
When evaluating players, fans tend to look at the wrong things. As a scout you're taught to look for what the player's underlying talent level is, what he struggles with and does well and which of those things are correctable with either practice or in a different system. Fans ignore those and just say "he threw a poor pass or made a bad decision" rather than recognizing if the INT was the result of having no better options or mistakes by other positions. It's the difference between what a scout does and bar room level analysis.
You mean you look at the individual pass and make judgments based off individual plays rather than the overall picture? makes sense now. your whole post does not dismiss anything as far as talent being present, it simply says he has developed the consistency needed at that position. And what Raf and others including myself had said it with a system that plays to what his talents are and allow him teh freedom to play and make mistakes without fear of retribution could help realize the talent and consistency he needs. Noone said Monday decided his fate. But it was a good showing, you can dig your heels in and not believe that is your perogitive, but I dont understand it. I mean if he does turn it around, he is going to do it whether you refuse to grant any credit or not. If he reverts to 10 Chad, he will do it whether we see it or not, whether we like it or not. 1 game is all he can play at a time. But Monday wasnt isolated, outside 2 passes in preseason game 1 within his first 5 passes, and I will even give you that outside his first 5 passes in preseason game 1, he has looked really good, confident, poised, in charge, decisive, and determined. so it is has been improvement over the last month not 1 game.
oh boy, one game! It truly amazes me how much all this perception has changes in just one game. Draft time, everyone was figuring how to posture ourselves to draft a new QB early, basically just ****ting all over Henne. And now after just one game, most have already put him on this high pedestal and have annointed him our our QB for the future. Henne is still Henne, whatever one can or can not see. It is what it is, guys, he had one decent solid game. It was no where near a spectacular game but a solid decent game. he's had a few of those already anyway. His numbers from the game bear that out and I've already gone into that already. Give him a few more games and then if he still is playing the same way, then we'll have something to talk about perhaps.
Hard to really make a determination one way or another until we start seeing some zone defenses. We've seen Henne have success in the past against man coverage.
not everyone.. If you ask coaches, qb coaches, head coaches, they will say that if a QB can just sustain their play during their 2nd year starting relative to their first year, its a win situation for that QB.
Listen I'm not making any arguments for or against Henne actually. I'm saying wait this year out. It's when someone with a positive view of henne sits on an ivory tower and proclaims everyone else too simple or inexperienced, I take issue with that. Remember, I picked Henne up in a fantasy league that my friend bungled for me (Didn't pick a QB). I have $300 of my own money, and over $3,000 in potential winnings, riding on Henne. Can anyone else say that? I put my money where my mouth is. I want Henne to kick ***. I need Henne to kick ***. I have faith in him kicking *** or I wouldn't have picked him off the waiver wire, hoping to start him. I just hate it when people sit there and proceed to call everyone else simple. It's insulting. Just disagree and voice your opinion. My analysis isn't off of Henne's "stats" or looking at an article recap. It's watching every throw he's made since he's come into the league. Now do I watch, rewatch, and slow down his throws to take notes on? No. There are two sides to the "analysis" coin. You can keep blaming other circumstances on a player's poor play. But that analysis only gets you so far. If you continue to assign blame to other factors pretty soon you have to realize maybe it's the player. Henne played poor in high pressure situations (within a touchdown in the 4th quarter he was terrible last year, blame whoever you want), his deep ball accuracy was terrible. I don't think Henne makes a huge number of bad decisions. It's just that when he does, for some reason or another, the other team is able to capitalize on it 100%. Possibly meaning his bad decision is very bad. I think KC Joyner had his bad decision rate placing him in the top 3rd of the league last year. in contrast, Sanchez was worse 3 fold. The only way for Henne to dissuade that assumption is to play well. This is his chance. He has the skills. He shows occasional brilliance everyone has seen it. Was the system holding him back? We'll see. I just know he's shown good, and bad, in our last system. We need to see more good than bad in this new system.
Really ? That's funny because what Henne did Monday night has only been done 3 times before (400+ yrds passing, 50+ yds rushing) by a QB in NFL history (more than 80 years) according to Elias sports bureau (I heard this the other morning). What Henne did the other day was nothing short of superhuman.
