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A serious look at Suck for Luck

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Oct 7, 2011.

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  1. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    CK, Ross could tell Ireland: "Do whatever it takes to trade up to get Luck or I'll find somebody else who will!"

    Ross is no dummy. He knows that Luck will sell tickets.
     
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't see Jeff Ireland continuing on in those circumstances. Nor do I see him deftly handling the process to where it won't fall through. He will find a way to screw it up, because it's not something he believes in.
     
  3. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yea, I'm sure Ross can make Ireland trade up for Luck. I'm not worried about that.
     
  4. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I still like my order here. I definitely think the Dolphins, Colts and Broncos are the clear-cut Top 3 favorites.
     
  5. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I think DEN is our best chance for that elusive Win! Even with 1 Win, we still can end up in the driver seat based on SOS % and 1-15 in the end.
     
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  6. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Like I said in the other thread, it's going to be tough to outbit Cleveland. They have better ammunition by a mile and they will be in the market for Andrew Luck.
     
  7. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Hmmm..depends on who has #1, but since CLE has 2 wins, clearly its unlikely they will have it, and yes, would have to trade up for sure.
     
  8. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I was referring to CK's scenario in which someone who isn't going to draft Andrew Luck holds the #1 selection and is open for trade offers. It's going to take some serious bank breaking to outbild Cleveland who hold two firsts in 2012.
     
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  9. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    Don't forget John Elway's desire for a QB like Luck. He'll will likely trade down to outbid the Browns.
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Duum duum duuummm..ominous drums...

    Makes sense, Holmgren would certainly take a Bradford or Luck if they were there, McCoy has been very average for the Brownies, they have plenty of draft ammo as well.

    Also:

    That could blow up in the Raiders faces easlly, if KC wins they are effectively eliminated from SFL, or on the cusp, 4 wins means little shot at the #1 overall.
     
  11. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    Forgot about the fact that Mike Holmgren is a QB junkie. Which makes sense on why they traded down with the Falcons last draft.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    *update*

    Colts on their way to 0-7
    Dolphins 0-6
    Rams 0-6
    AZ 1-5
    Jags on MNF
    Panthers won to go 2-4
    Broncos now 2-4

    Practically speaking, the race is down to
    Colts
    Dolphins
    Rams
    Jags

    And the Jags and Colts play twice, the rams and AZ play twice

    It is down to us, and the Colts and Jags with AZ being on the outside
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The Colts are so bad, I have a feeling that we may not wind up with the #1 overall.

    Rams are also just atrocious, they lost by 18, Colts lost by 55 or more, we have not been good but we have not be consistently spanked like those two teams.
     
  14. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Colts just got blitzed last night. However, they have been more competetive than us in the vast majority of their games, holding 4th quarter elads a few times.

    IF Peyton comes back even if it's for only 4 or 5 games, I think the Colts could win 2 or 3. And don;t forget Tennessee has come back down to earth and Locker may have to start playing.
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Colts MOL:
    1 27
    2 8
    3 3
    4 7
    5 4
    6. 10
    7. 55

    19 pts avg margin of loss


    Dolphins:

    1 14
    2 10
    3 1
    4 10
    5 18
    6 3

    8 pts on avg

    Take out the 55 pt blowout and it becomes 9 pts on avg.


    Really think it hinges on the Jags v Colts matchups, but the real problem is their SoS is much weaker then ours with the Jags being horrible this yr, we have no one in the AFCE who is going as badly as the Jags which will cripple our SoS.

    Real team to watch is AZ, they have quitely been really bad.
     
  16. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

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    AZ was so close to bearing the Giants.

    -Ed-
    sent from my EVO 3D
     
  17. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Still rooting for 1 win....especially since SoS % is so hard to predict....

    I would still FEEL HAPPIER with 1 Win and expecting both INDY and STL to also tally 1 WIN; and all current 1 Win teams to secure a 2nd win...and then let it come down to SoS%.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/t...rojectedWinPct

    With SoS % being the key tiebreaker for draft rankings (especially 1st round)

    Right now, thru week 7. Wins then SoS % order

    1. MIA 0 wins .579
    2. IND 0 wins .609
    3. STL 0 wins .639
    4. AZ 1 win .436
    5. JAC 1 win .575
    6. MIN 1 win .609

    * tonights BAL vs JAC will impact SoS for some.

    AZ has a huge SoS % advantage thru week 7:shifty:
     
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  18. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Jags and Ten are both opponents set up for the colts to play well against - low scoring. The colts have no hope of outgunning an offensive team with Collins, Painter or Orlovsky, but if the games remain close the bounces can sway a game. One luck picky 6, a fumble, special teams play. Living on the edge.

    Will be tough to beat though.
     
  19. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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  20. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    How do they screw up the order and have AZ last??? :pity: is it that hard to understand SoS%! :lol:
     
  21. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Now that we're done with Denver, our destiny is sort of in our own hands. We don't play any real competitors the rest of the season so we can't screw ourselves.

    Indy still has Tenn and Jax twice. We just need Indy to split those 4 games and we should be good. Same thing with STL. If Bradford comes back, I have to imagine they can split the 4 games against seattle and Arizona. Arizona is not in this thing I don't think. They will win a few games indivision. The NFC West will eliminate itself I imagine
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I know! And my new target for a "W" is the Redskins, the lost Moss and Hightower and have Beck at Qb.

    5 starters lost in the last 2 weeks.

    But, once again, we are on a different path from every other team in this negative race, they play each other, we play outside of that completely.
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    More or less, the one wildcar in that is one team could win both games, the Jags could beat the Colts twice, the Cards could beat the Rams twice,

    Az and Stl are both really strong contenders for this Schmoo, weak SoS, bad teams, we really would need one of them to beat someone else outside of their division.
     
  24. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree they are stron contenders but I don;t see one as light years ahead of the other and they noth also get seattle at least once more. I'll have to check the schedules but the Rams espescially really lightens up.

    I also agree with you that Washington is the only team left we might be favored against, but given what's transpired, I cannot predict a win. Sage could be starting by then
     
  25. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Washington just lost Hightower for the season and Santana Moss for 5-7 weeks. Interesting.
     
  26. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Washington is going to have problems. Thankfully they're already pretty much out of the race thank to 3 victories, but could they play a role in handing victories to possible contenders?

    Do they play STL or Arizona?
     
  27. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I think the 2 divisions play each other.
     
  28. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Miami (0-6)- @NYG, @KC, WAS, BUF, @DAL, OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ

    Indy (0-7)- @TEN, ATL, JAC, CAR, @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAC

    St Louis (0-6)- NO, @AZ, CLE, SEA, AZ, @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF

    Arizona- (1-5)- @BAL, STL, @PHI, @SF, @STL, DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA

    Jags- (1-5)- BAL(MNF), @HOU, @IND, @CLE, HOU, SD, TB, @ATL, @TEN, IND

    Minny- (1-6)- CAR, @GB, OAK, @ATL, DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI
     
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  29. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Indy can put a complete game together I think they could win 3 or 4. Their schedule sets up with 3 straight division games to end the season when the games could be emaningless for all parties invovled. Houston looks to run away with the thing.

    Our situation is different in that we play contenders, sans perhaps Washington, the rest of the way. Even KC is right back in the division race.
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'm seeing what 4 playoff teams on their plate?

    GB/Oak/Atl/Det/NO, maybe Chicago.
     
  31. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Vikings best chance to add a 2nd W is at home....so would think if they can surprise CAR or maybe OAK depending on McFadden Injury could be their best chance. Certainly DEN.
     
  32. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    AZ has timezone home field advantage....should grab their 2nd win over STL CLE or SEA.
     
  33. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    our magic # is 2....I think IND could find 2 Wins (TEN & JAC, maybe if not those exact ones, they steal one as a sleeper?)...same with STL (CLE, SEA, AZ).....

    I think outside of WAS, maybe we steal one from some other by hook or crook...but seriously its hard to see 1 win remaining on our schedule...although I will be happy the week we accomplish it.

    1 Win = Luck! Thats my expectation.
     
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  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh boy fellas, Jags have something cooking on MNF v the ravens...that would be huge.
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Jax with 2 wins....nice...

    one more contender moves further away.
     
  36. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jax is eliminated at this point I think.

    At worst they split with Colts and still play Cleveland and Tenn. They get to 4 wins relatively comfortably I think.

    We just need them to lose to Indy once. Help a brother out Gabbert
     
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  37. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Based on the most probable one Win = Luck.....

    ....and now there was ONLY Five post:

    Right now, OFFICIALLY thru week 7.

    #Wins then SoS % draft order

    1. MIA 0 wins .579
    2. IND 0 wins .609
    3. STL 0 wins .622
    4. AZ 1 win .436
    5. MIN 1 win .609

    Miami (0-6)- @NYG, @KC, WAS, BUF, @DAL, OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ

    Indy (0-7)- @TEN, ATL, JAC, CAR, @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAC

    St Louis (0-6)- NO, @AZ, CLE, SEA, AZ, @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF

    Arizona- (1-5)- @BAL, STL, @PHI, @SF, @STL, DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA

    Minny- (1-6)- CAR, @GB, OAK, @ATL, DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI
     
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  38. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    Man, that Jags win shows that anything really can happen on Sunday. Zona and the Rams really do have some weaker opponents coming up and do play each other twice. Either they split or one of them gets pretty much eliminated from the luck sweepstakes.

    Would love a colts sweep of the Jags but will take a split.
     
  39. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    ^Yup, based on AZ and STL playing each other...and the expectation that Dolphins may STEAL 1 WIN max...we are a nearly guaranteed Top 4 Pick in the draft at this point.

    Any team that gets to 2 wins is eliminated in the race from what I see. It will still come down to 1 Win and SoS%. I just hope we find/steal/gifted a Win somewhere in this season.
     
  40. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    An Indy win this week would be huge. They could get to 3 if they beat Tennessee.

    If we contain ourselves to one win, I think we clinch this thing
     
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