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Phins reliving the past (07/11). Changing the future (08/12)?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Southbeach, Oct 28, 2011.

  1. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Our Dolphins are having a season which is eerily similar to 2007 so far on this Halloween weekend. In 07, we were winless going into week #8 and played the Giants. Sound familiar? In 07, Trent Green played 5 games, and Cleo Lemon the rest. This year Henne played in 5 games, and now there is Moore. At this point in 07, we all knew the coaches and FO were history, back to rebuilding, same as now. We also play a "Lucky" 13 of the same teams on this year's schedule.

    IF things continue, we will have the #1 draft pick, and a weak schedule the following year. Our 2012 schedule, aside from the division, is SF, Seattle, Zona, and St Louis (same as in 08), Indy, Jax, Tenn, Houston (have to beat them sometime), very likely Cleveland, and Denver. "Could be" another playoff schedule.

    Reliving the past sounds really good so far but, that's where the future changes. We would have a legit VG to franchise QB to build the team around. We have a number of young, very talented players coming into their primes or a lot of potential (Long, Pouncey, Thomas, Gates, Clay, Odrick, Misi, Smith, Davis, etc). We will only have two players, Wake and Dansby, hitting 30.

    We will have a ton of cap space, sitting at $10M now. Our FAs Henne, Merling, Soliai, Langford, Carey, Slaton, JT, Sage, and W Allen total $24M coming off the books. Add in Bell and Columbo, we're $40M under without Bush's $5M. Burnett has a 4 year $20M deal but cannot find details, and who knows what the new FO will do witn Marshall's $9.3M.

    With all that money to spend, we need to draft, re-sign or sign a QB, RG, RT (or maybe Murtha), RB or 2, 2nd TE (depending on Clay), DT, DE, OLB (depending on Misi), ILB (depending on Burnett), 3rd CB, and a S or 2 (depending on Clemons, Wilson, and maybe even Jones at SS). Also, Dansby's salary goes from $2.7M to $8.8M next year. This is one hell of a shopping list but, we do have a full draft, and PLENTY of money to fill it.

    I get pumped just thinking of what could well happen. 2012 may be the most exciting Dolphan's off season in our history.
     
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  2. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    Our first two draft picks this year need to go QB, then TE. IF we have the #1 pick, I am hoping Luck, then grabbing Stanford TE Fleener.

    Gotta do everything we can to improve our scoring, and offense in general, not to mention make Andrew Luck's development easier. Every QB needs their trusty and efficient tight end.

    After that, we should go defense and fix that atrocious secondary.
     
  3. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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  4. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    There is one flaw that I see....what if the new regime wants to blow up the team, despite there being some up and coming talent, but talent that may not fit the new regime's personnel needs ?? What if we are switching to a 4/3, tampa 2 ?? What if the new regime switches to more of a WCO ?? What if history doesn't repeat itself and we win a game or two and end up picking 3 or 4 ?? There are a lot of variables that go into the new regime. I do have to agree that we are not bereft of talent, as we were in 2007, but is the talent we have what the new regime will be looking for ??
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't think our first two picks need to be QB then TE.

    I would once again advise caution on the TE position because everyone is going to want to swing the pendulum the complete other direction and use a cannon to kill a mosquito. The reason the TE position is such a damning issue for this regime is because they've done virtually NOTHING with it. It's not THAT hard to fill it with some interesting players, but this regime didn't even put in a MINIMAL effort to fill it.

    Look at the whole Jimmy Graham thing. Where did he go in the Draft? Way down in the 3rd round! So now we need to use the #33 overall pick which is basically a 1st rounder on the position? And it's such a need that we need to peg that pick regardless of who is available?

    I don't know if Charles Clay has a future as a lead blocker, but he does already look interesting as a pass catcher. Maybe he's already someone that can help us get more out of that Tight End position, we just move him there instead of him playing Fullback. Maybe someone will be available in free agency. The Broncos are getting a lot of action out of Daniel Fells. He was a free agent, I believe. The Cardinals are getting some good play out of Todd Heap. He switched teams during the off season, can't remember if he was traded for a song or if he was a free agent, but either way.

    There are all kinds of options. You probably won't need the #33 overall pick to get Josh Chichester or Joseph Fauria (provided he comes out) in the Draft. Brian Linthicum is a pretty good prospect too.

    There's a lot that is going to happen after this season is done. Strap yourself in. It's way too early to go pegging picks aside from the 1st pick. And even that's too early, because we may lose the Luck sweepstakes and be forced to try and circle back for someone like Weeden or Tannehill.

    An idea that's got me interested right now would be converting this defense into a 4-3 and then trying to find someone like Luke Kuechly, Dont'a Hightower, Manti Te'o or Vontaze Burfict to man the middle linebacker position. There's also Shayne Skov to consider. Depending on which of the five comes out, this Draft presents a little bit of an opportunity. You can pick up someone smart and explosive to be the MLB of the present and future, to be the guy that we're missing now that Channing Crowder has been cut. I would absolutely sign Crowder back onto the roster to mentor whoever it is. You could have Karlos Dansby playing Will and Koa Misi playing Sam (my preference is this), or you could have Dansby playing Sam and keep Kevin Burnett to play Will. This would allow you to be multiple in your defense.

    And then you consider we have some work to do in the secondary most likely...
     
  6. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Where do you see Fleener going CK?

    If we got Luck, I would overdraft Fleener if necessary. Not only is he a very good player, but it can't hurt to give Luck somebody he is comfortbale with right away.

    If we're going to build our team around Luck, make it as easy as possible for him from day 1
     
    electrolyte likes this.
  7. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    I am AWESSSSSOOOOOOOMMMMMMEEEEE
     
  8. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I see what you're saying and any of those things could happen. I think my shopping list pretty much covers any change we could make, although the type of player we draft, sign or re-sign would change. For example, if we go to a 4-3 we have Starks, McD and Odrick inside, Wake and maybe Misi at DE. In place of a NT and DE, we need to go after 2 DE's with different skills. Same at S. At LB, Dansby goes to MLB, Misi outside, and we are looking for a different type OLB.

    If we don't get Luck, we very likely get Jones or Barkley, and it's the same building around him. I can't see getting rid of any of the young, cheap talent mentioned no matter the changes. The new FO will have more than enough on it's plate.
     
  9. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    In all due respect, I do not see the OP's being close to "almost the same thing" other than the weak schedule and replacing the coaches.
     
  10. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    CK, have you seen any of Ladarius Green from UL-Lafayette? I haven't, but after reading about him, he caught my interest. Poor-man's Jared Cook perhaps?
     
  11. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    1) A player of Fleener's caliber will not drop to the 3rd round. I am still suspicious he might even go in the 1st round. He is a great TE prospect.

    2) Do you remember that our red zone offense is disgustingly bad? league worst? Taking Luck-Fleener with our top 2 picks fixes that overnight. I predict we would become top 10 in the NFL.

    3) and for every Graham, there is a LOT of TE's taken that didn't amount to anything. I am so sick and tired of this reasoning. "Oh, we don't need a 1st round pick for a QB, look at Tom brady!" now you are using it for Jimmy Graham. Do you even sit down to research the LONG LIST of busts that DO NOT pan out? The list will reach the ground for every 1 Jimmy Graham. Staking your chances of finding gold in the later rounds of the draft is FOOLS GOLD when you have a sure fire TE right there.

    Especially, since Fleener is already Luck's teammate at Stanford. Fleener can be a great TE in the NFL. Look at his games. His hands are as good as anyone's. He makes amazing catches, skill catches. And he's a 6'6 BIG TARGET. Perfect for red zone targeting.

    No. You take Fleener with the #33 pick and don't look back. Luck will have a much better rookie season if he has a great TE with him. Do you understand how much easier it is for a QB to punish blitzing defenses when they have a reliable, good TE?

    P.S. Fleener is so good, he might not even be there at the #33 pick. If he is, we need to grab him. Convert this Dolphin team from the worst in the red zone scoring to top 10 in the league in one off-season. Scoring points is WORTH IT. Scoring points wins you games and masks a lot of other problems. Give Andrew Luck every opportunity to succeed. Hell yes I am spending a 2nd on a great TE.

    If you haven't been paying attention, almost every single great QB has a great, reliable TE that they depend on. Take a look at the stats. Most efficient receivers? TE's.

    Tom Brady? Rob Gronkowski (2nd round, pick 42)

    Peyton Manning? Dallas Clark (1st round, pick 23)

    Matt Ryan? Tony Gonzalez (1st round, pick 13)

    Aaron Rodgers? Do you realize the Packers have FIVE tight ends on their roster? 5. Five.

    Ben Roethlisberger? Heath Miller (1st round, pick 30)

    Joe Flacco? I believe it's not a coincidence he had great years when he had Pro Bowler Todd Heap to throw to. (Round 1, pick 31)

    Do you also realize that Andrew Luck, in Stanford's pro style offense, runs a lot of 3 TE formations?


    Give Luck every opportunity to succeed and come out guns blazing in his rookie year. That's what we should do.
     
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  12. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    CK, I like the idea of going to a 4-3. I'm assuming you would sing Crowder to play Mike on running downs, and replace him on passing downs. I like your idea of Misi playing Will with Dansby playing Will, and Crowder Mike on running plays but don't like Misi's cover skills on the TE. I also believe that Dansby has played Mike in the past, and am not a fan of Burnett. Don't you think OLB is a bigger need than MLB if we go 4-3? Also, what's your take on Misi as a 4-3 DE on some snaps?

    We seem assured of getting at least a top pick in the draft. Of all our needs, which positions have the best chance of finding a starter at the top of the 2nd and 3rd rounds? Which positions are least likely to fill one of our needs? I'm thinking we could go anywhere on D, other than DT/NT or CB, and RT or yet another RG on O.
     
  13. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Fasano is a good, reliable TE who we just have not thrown to as much as we should. As CK mentioned, Clay is showing a lot of promise as a receiver, and could well fill the need for a 2nd TE. IMO we have too many other much more pressing needs to even consider taking a TE that high.

    QB and being able to catch the FRACKIN ball have been our red zone problems, not the TE.
     
  14. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    wut?
     
  15. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Gotta get a RT with the 2nd...
     
  16. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    The #33 is almost a 1st rounder

    -another- lineman that high? =(
     
  17. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/freeagents/fa.php?y=2012

    A lot is going to depend on which holes we can fill in FA. The link gives a list of who could be available. I think we should tell Cowher that bringing Polamalu with him is part of his contract. :)
     
  18. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    True story. He does not have the speed you would like but does everything else very well, very few drops, VG average, and VG blocker.

    This year, targeted 13 times, 10 catches, 15 yard average, 0 drops. Last year, targeted 55 times, 39 catches, 13.5 average, 2 drops.
     
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  19. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    It's our most glaring weakness beyond QB, IMO. We might be able to make a deal in free agency. Gotta find an answer there, no way around it."
     
  20. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    FWIW, Murtha looked pretty good in pre-season. I can't say that he's the answer but is worth some consideration. I think it appears to be our most glaring weakness is because Columbo is there. Almost anyone who plays the position would be an upgrade.
     
  21. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    I can't argue against you. It's true we have to deal with that spot......

    BUT........

    I would rather have Luck's college teammate who also happens to be a stud top prospect Tight End that might be there for us at #33, which will help Luck's development, make him more comfortable......and help us score touchdown's in the red zone.

    From round 3 on, I'm hoping the dolphins go best player available. We need more playmakers.
     
  22. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I'd make an arguement that we should take a free safety if there is a good one available at the top of the 2nd round. Maybe Markell Martin.
     
  23. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Hard to disagree. Still can't believe we did not go after one in FA. Bell is likely gone, and no one else has shown much.
     
  24. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I'll admit you added some new content, but the part about similar schedules and similarities to 2007 is very similar, just worded differently.
     
  25. caneaddict

    caneaddict Season Ticket Holder

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    Everyone promoting taking safety or LB, i'd caution and say that we do not need to fix all this teams needs in one off season. Clearly the defense needs an upgrade for us to have any chance of being competitive.

    However, we will eventually need to address the offense as well and therefore it's a matter of timing. Which side to fix when. If we get Luck it appears pretty unanimous that the probability of him busting just from not being good enough or mental issues is almost negligible. So the only thing that would keep him from being a top franchise QB for the next 15 years is INJURY.

    To that end, why not fix offense now and defense next year? Obviously if there are free agents available for defense or later round picks - go get them. But early round picks should be spent on Right Tackle, TE, RB, Guard, WR. Why make Luck wait a year or two for a decent RT or TE while he's getting crushed?

    I'd get spending early picks on defense if we were a couple holes away from a Super Bowl, but I think we have at least 2 off seasons before we start making any real post-season noise.
     
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  26. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Michael Griffin and Dashon Goldson are the best of the bunch in free agency. Are either really the sort of coverage guy/communicator that we need? Best of the rest is Reggie Nelson who's having a renaissance year in Cincinnati, but I'd imagine they'll try to lock him up given the fact there's no depth behind he and former Dolphin Chris Crocker...unless you count Taylor Mays of course.
     

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