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Race For The #1 Pick- Updated & Week #9 Bottom's Lines

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Southbeach, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Indy (0-8)- Atlanta-8 Colts have shown no interest in giving up their #1 seed but, 3 home games vs Atl, Jax, and Carolina "could change things.

    Miami (0-7)- @ KC-6 Phins are playing hard but, coming up empty. The effort the team is giving gives the team a fair chance vs KC, and then "home" vs Wash, and maybe even Buff.

    St Louis (1-6)- @ Zona-4 Rams pulled a shocker in beating the Saints. With Bradford coming back and Cleve, Seattle, and Zona again coming up, they could fall out of the race very soon.

    Arizona (1-6)- St Louis+4 Cards gave a great effort @ Balt before falling late. After the Rams, @ Philly, @ SF, and @ Rams. This week is best shot of the 4 to drop back into the pack.

    Minny (2-6)- Bye Vikes came up with a "Game of the Week" win vs Carolina. Rough games ahead with @ GB, Oak, and @ Atlanta before another win with Denver coming in.

    Jax (2-6)- Bye Jags go to Indy after the bye, and could well hand the Colts their first win. Then @ Cleve, and Houston. They end the year with Indy, which could be a very big game.

    Carolina (2-6)- Bye Panthers dropped a tuff one to Vikes. They have Tenn, @ Detroit, and @ Indy coming up. The team has the talent to beat Tenn, and the lack of talent to lose to Indy.

    Denver (2-5)- @ Oakland-8 Broncos may well be the worst of these 9 teams, with Tebow, contending. If he stays on the field, cannot see them winning another game.

    Seattle (2-5)- @ Dallas-12 Seahawks have Balt, @ ST Louis, and Wash coming up after Dallas. Fair chance for a win to drop them from the race.

    GAME OF THE WEEK

    St Louis @ Arizona-4

    I'm going with Zona at home here. I'm also giving our Phins a very fair chance of beating KC.

    I still believe there is a fair chance of a 2 win team getting the #1 pick.
     
  2. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks Southbeach. This stuff is fascinating. Unfortunately, it looks like the only team to have "quit" is the Colts. I don't see the Colts beating the Panthers or Atlanta. Those teams have strong passing attacks and the Colts secondary is garbage. They'll likely split with Jax and go 1-15.
     
  3. mcioci

    mcioci New Member

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    Mark my words, Colts will go 0-16. Their owner, GM and all coaches are in on it. I've seen enough proof that tells me they dont want to win a game this year. THe KC game said it all. up 24-7 at halftime, scoring at will and then in 2nd half no first downs until 2 min left in game, where Dallas Clark drops a pass right in his hands for a long gain in fg range. If they win a game it will be at home against the Jags. I would love to be wrong but until I see them even try I will stick to my guns here.
     
  4. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No way Dallas Clark drops a pass on purpose. No way.

    A conspiracy theorist could say the same thing about the Dolphins' blown leads. Marlon Moore tanked the game to get Luck. He intentionally muffed the onside kick. And Will Allen purposefully took the wrong angle against the Tebow 2-point conversion. BALONEY!
     
  5. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    This has added some interest to the season GH. It's not the type of race we would have liked but, as they say, beggars (as well as winless NFL teams) cannot be choosers. Then again, I guess the winner of this race would be the chooser. :)

    The next three weeks of the Colts being home vs Atlanta, Jax, and Carolina should tell the tale (or tail) of their team.

    I'm also not counting out Peyton coming back in Dec to show that they do not need Luck. We shall see.
     
  6. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I think it's absolutely silly to think any player on any of these bad teams is tanking on purpose in order to get a higher draft pick. especially a team like the Colts that still has P Manning. they are 0-8 because they have zero talent outside of Clark and Reggie Wayne. they were already a crappy team elevated by a HOF QB.

    And for the OP, I really don't see us having a shot vs KC. they have been playing pretty well the past month. We lose that game.
    The only game remaining I think we win is vs Washington.
     
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  7. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    No team is going 0-16.
     
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  8. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've said it in 100 threads: If the Colts secure the #1 overall pick, they will trade out for a boatload of picks/players for one final Manning Super Bowl push.
     
  9. mcioci

    mcioci New Member

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    Colts just came out last night saying Manning will practice when able but will not play this year. If Luck wasn't available in next years draft Manning would play. Dallas Clark missed the pass that would have led to at least a fg. the week later he fumbles, Garcon laterals back the football to a Cincy player, They get a fg blocked and cincy runs it in for td. Last week if you saw the blocked punt in the endzone, someone tell me it was not done on purpose. It was way too obvious to me, he took 2 steps before attempting the punt, also he wasnt even far enough back in the endzone, its all too fishy for me.

    I dont see an issue with Colts drafting Luck and putting him behind Manning. I dont think Manning would mind at all. This sets them up for the next 3 yrs with manning then another 12-14 yrs with Luck.
     
  10. mcioci

    mcioci New Member

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    The only game we can win would be wash or oak. Dont see us winning any other game.
     
  11. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    KC played just poorly enough to no overlook us. They could be the undisputed division leader next week if they beat us. We will lose.

    It's Washington that is giving me cold sweats
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'd be much more tempted to bet on Kansas City to cover.
     
  13. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    And what of Marshall dropping 5 TD's? Is he secretly in on a fix with Ross?

    On second thought, never mind. Ross would have leaked it to the media. LOL
     
  14. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I'm thinking along the same lines. I stop short of picking our Dolphins because of the emotion the KC fans bring to the stadium, and there is gonna be a game where the Phins drop off in effort, just human nature. Can't say when it will be but, it is coming.
     
  15. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Nope, thru Week 8 Indy have lower SoS% and thus are leading the tiebreaker over our SoS%. Jac's record is hurting our chances....

    Realistically we will have to root for Indy to get to 2 wins....and us only stealing 1 win if we want to get #1 based on regular season. Otherwise it will require a trade up package for sure.

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  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I think Kansas City destroys us with the game at Arrowhead. No way do we go in there and win, IMO. The Redskins scare me. We have to hope Grossman earns his job back before then because I don't see a John Beck led squad beating anybody.
     
  17. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I have not yet gotten into SOS. The 13 teams we play still have 8 or more games to play. That's at least 104 more games to consider for us alone. Add in the other "contenders" so far, and it's more than 936 games to consider.

    That's a little bit much for me at this point. I'll join in around week #13.
     
  18. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I thought the same of A J Feeley MB. Yet, he beat a Drew Brees led team. Go figure.
     
  19. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Gotta subtract the team being played twice in the division BD.
     
  20. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    LOL...seem to be much debate, but I researched and per past years...NFL uses all 16 games and their full 16 records for total of 256 games as divider....your Division Opponents do count twice for SoS%. Its weird, but that's how they do it.

    I too first thought it was 13 opponents x 16 game season...but thats only 208 games. You do need to add the 3 Div opponents records twice to get to the magic 256 divider for SoS%.

    So its correct as laid out, where NE, NYJ, and BUF count twice for us....and HOU, TEN, and JAC count twice for INDY.

    Thats the problem with our Div producing better records then Indy's Div. We need Jac to step it up. Of course, we really need NE, BUF, and NYJ to lose!
     
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  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Speaking purely on the Indianapolis vs Miami battle for Andrew Luck, we should be cheering for the following:

    (FOR WIN-LOSS PURPOSES ONLY)
    1. Indianapolis over Atlanta (obvious)
    2. Kansas City over Miami (obvious)

    (FOR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE PURPOSES)
    3. San Francisco over Washington (seems likely)
    4. Green Bay over San Diego (seems likely)
    5. Houston over Cleveland (seems likely)
    6. Chicago over Philadelphia (questionable)
    7. Tennessee over Cincinnati (questionable)
    8. Seattle over Dallas (not likely)

    Now, let's pretend that both the Colts and Dolphins lose again this week. If #2 thru #6 all happen the way I have them illustrated, then the Dolphins' strength of schedule will have fallen below the Colts' strength of schedule. The Colts' SOS is currently 0.546 and the Dolphins' is currently 0.566. But if the 49ers beat the Redskins, the Packers beat the Chargers, the Texans beat the Browns, the Bears beat the Eagles, the Titans beat the Bengals and the Seahawks beat the Cowboys, then the Dolphins' SOS goes to 0.550 while the Colts' SOS jumps up to 0.561. That would give the Dolphins the tie-break (temporarily).

    We'll just have to see what actually happens though.
     
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  22. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Thanks my friend, I learned something, and that is always a good thing. However, I am still not getting into the SOS just yet. I leave that to you.
     
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  23. mcioci

    mcioci New Member

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    Lmao.


     
  24. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I post it for general info/fun....but I am begging for Indy to get 2 wins, and Miami to get 1 Win so SoS% never has to come into play. :hi5:
     
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  25. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I am still rooting for GB to lose 1 game! The sooner the better!
     
  26. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    One action no one here has yet stated which is a very real possibility. The Jets win the Division and tank the last game to give us our only win while the Colts remain winless or only have one win thus we lose the tiebreaker.:confused2:
     
  27. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Yeah, long way to go seems to be the common refrain.:lol:

    I will gladly admit, right now, if COLTS are 0-15 and playing their 1pm game vs. JAC and we are also 0-15 and playing NYJ @ 1pm.....and presuming we will have a higher SoS%, I will be at wit ends on what to do/feel. If we are going to lose that S0S% tiebreaker I dont want to be tied....even if that means rotating rounds 2-7 for #1 pick in alternating rounds, etc. I would rather get 1 win and accept those consequences and hope we trade up.

    I seriously want no part of 0-16.....even if that means Mr. Luck....I just cant find solace in that from rooting interest. Now, if the product on the field puts us at 0-16 and somehow INDY racks up a Win vs Jac in week 17...and I know we thus landed Mr. Luck. I will get over it....but I WONT root for it.

    I CANT ROOT for it....I CANT!.
     
  28. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I believe that, among the 9 "contenders," Miami has the best overall talent on their roster, and better than some who are not in the race.
     
  29. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Let me resolve that for ya BD. No matter how you root/cheer, it means absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of any doubt, NOTHING.

    Our team in that game, or any other, is gonna play the same, and the results will be the same.

    This SFL Bandwagon fascinates me. The person some believe they "honor" by this nonsense, calls it STUPID, and says fans should support their teams through bad times.

    What the hell does he know? He is only the object of the Bandwagon's affection, and has no say in the matter. Comical, and sounding like unwanted groupies for Rock Stars. LOL
     
  30. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Exactly right about rooting for Wins.....but not in control of what happens.

    I will never ever root for a loss to equal 0-16, even if Indy is already at 1 win, and us beating JESTs would put us into a tie and knowing we would lose SoS% tiebreaker.

    0-16 is so horrible to me......I cant root for that over Mr. Luck. I Cant.

    Again, if the results produce 0-16, I accept it, but it sucks.....and getting Mr. Luck helps....but 0-16....yuck....can not root for that.:tongue2:

    P.S. if INDY has 2 wins...and us beating JEST would get us a 2nd win, and knowing we would lose tiebreaker.....(well, that would be a different story:wink2: as far as my interest goes)
     
  31. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    It's a good point, and any given Sunday always applies. But let's not forget, A.J. Feeley has demonstrated at least some degree of success in the NFL. I've never seen John Beck do anything to make me think he can lead a team to an NFL victory. But I'd be a huge fool to say it's impossible.
     
  32. Starry31

    Starry31 Phins and Heels.

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    Yeah, I appreciate BDH and the others keeping up with, and explaining SoS, but I'll worry about that the final week.

    I was more worried about the Jets being eliminated in week 17 and them playing poorly because of it, with our team much more motivated. Looking at the Jets remaining games though, lot of winnable games so don't think that scenario plays out.

    And while we could beat the Redskins, for those worrying about that game just think of this. We lost to the worst starting QB in the NFL.
     
  33. gandalfin

    gandalfin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sit back and think about what a miserable season like this is reducing us to. Other teams are cheering their teams on to a playoff spot and here we are discussing the intricacies of SoS. Really sad. I just hope the result we are all praying for comes to pass.
     
  34. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    A healthy Steven Jax and possibly Bradford back I think St. Louis wins that one.
     
  35. sloppyjoer

    sloppyjoer New Member

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    Sorry if I am a little clueless, I really do not know how the seeding of the draft picks sorts out. But I cannot understand, nor fathom, how Indy would get the pick over us. We have made the playoffs like twice in ten years, and won the division once in that span. Indy has almost always won their division in the same span, and even with last year finishing well above us. How do we get boned here?
     
  36. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Read this thread.
     
  37. sloppyjoer

    sloppyjoer New Member

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    Ya, I did, but I don't understand SoS%, sorry. =/
     
  38. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    9,819
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    Nov 27, 2007
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    simple process

    1) fewest # of wins in reg season get better pick
    2) if tied with another team for fewest wins......lowest SoS% (which is your full 16 weeks of opponents win/loss record) is used
    3) if same SoS% is calculated (which is rare but could happen) then
    4) Division record is used..if same record or if teams are from different divisions then
    5) Conference record is used...if same record or different conferences then
    6) coin flip

    so past years of success do not matter....regular season record will seed the 2012 draft....ties will be broken according to above rules
     
    sloppyjoer likes this.
  39. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

    22,422
    9,819
    0
    Nov 27, 2007
    DC Metro Area
    you take the teams that are tied with worst record and compare schedules..like this Wins/Total games played:

    [TABLE="width: 318"]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]W[/TD]
    [TD]L[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]W[/TD]
    [TD]L[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]HOU[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]HOU[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]CLE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]CLE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]PIT[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]SD[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]TB[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NYJ[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]KC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]CIN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NYG[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]NO[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]KC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]TEN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]WAS[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]ATL[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]BUF[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]JAC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]DAL[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]CAR[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]OAK[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]NE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]PHI[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]BAL[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]BUF[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]TEN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]HOU[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NYJ[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]JAC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]113[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]119[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]SoS%[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]SoS%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]0.5664[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]0.5462[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]


    Lower SoS% is considered the worst team....so as or right now...both Miami and Indy have 0 wins....but Indy thru end of week 8 has .546 SoS% and Miami has .566 SoS%...so Indy would pick #1 in round 1.

    That's the basic jist. If this is how it stayed come end of regular season, we would rotate to pick #1 in round 2, and rotate like that all thru 7 rounds...but as far as round 1, Indy would have #1 pick.

    Pretty easy once you see it play out.
     
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  40. sloppyjoer

    sloppyjoer New Member

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    0
    Apr 16, 2010
    Ontario, Canada
    Gotcha! Thanks so much, I got it now. =)
     

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