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Indy vs Miami: The Strength of Schedule Race

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ckparrothead, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Below is a set of final regular season standings that would result in a TIE between the Dolphins and Colts in strength of schedule. Both teams would have a 0.563 strength of schedule, and would be forced to go onto other tie breakers which I believe are the reverse of playoff tie breakers.

    I've noted on the right hand side which team benefits if the team in question finishes WORSE than the prediction. In other words, in the very first line you see Atlanta at 10-6. They're 4-3 right now, which projects to 9-7, but they're playing the Colts next week and if they win that game (which is probable) they will project for a 10-6 finish. But if they finish below 10-6 then the Colts benefit. However, if they finsih better than 10-6, this impacts the Colts' SOS negatively and favors the Dolphins.

    What I'm trying to show you with this, is this all seems pretty doable. As an exercise, just run down the list and think about your own predictions on final records for these teams. If you agree with the projection below, fine. If not and you think it will be lower or higher, keep track of how many notches favor the Dolphins versus the Colts and this will give you an idea whether your current expectation about how the season will end will involve the Dolphins winning the SOS battle with the Colts, or losing it.

    Remember that the below projections involve a SOS tie between the Colts and Dolphins.

    ATL :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
    BAL :: 12 - 4 :: Colts
    BUF :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
    CAR :: 4 - 12 :: Colts
    CIN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts
    CLE :: 6 - 10 :: Neutral
    DAL :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
    DEN :: 3 - 13 :: Dolphins
    HOU :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
    JAX :: 4 - 12 :: Colts x2
    KAN :: 10 - 6 :: Neutral
    NE :: 12 - 4 :: Dolphins
    NOR :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
    NYG :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
    NYJ :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins x2
    OAK :: 10 - 6 :: Dolphins
    PHI :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
    PIT :: 11 - 5 :: Colts
    SDG :: 8 - 8 :: Dolphins
    TAM :: 8 - 8 :: Colts
    TEN :: 10 - 6 :: Colts x2
    WAS :: 6 - 10 :: Dolphins


    If the season ended this way and both the Colts and Dolphins are 0-16 then it would go to a coin flip. If they're both 1-15, things get more interesting because it would depend on who you beat. Right now for the Dolphins, I'm looking at the Redskins game and thinking...that could be the game we win. If we win it, all might not be lost because it wouldn't be a conference win. One nice thing about the Jaguars' 4-12 projection here is they still have to play the Colts twice. If you project the Jags to only be 3-13, for instance, then you're implying that the Colts come away with AT LEAST one victory against the Jaguars. If you think the Jaguars finish 2-14 then it means the Colts also finish 2-14.
     
  2. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Rules for determining draft order

    The Draft currently lasts seven rounds. The draft order is determined by first generating the order for the first round. That order is based generally on each team's regular season record, with the exception of the two Super Bowl contestants, who are placed at the end of the draft order. Tiebreakers and specifics are as follows:

    1. Any expansion team automatically gets the first pick; if there are two expansion teams, a coin toss determines who picks first; the other team will pick second in the expansion draft.
    2. The winners of the Super Bowl are given the last selection, and the losers the penultimate selection.
    3. Teams that made the playoffs are then ordered by which round of the playoffs they are eliminated.
    4. Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record.
    5. Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule. For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick. If strength of schedule does not resolve a tie, division and/or conference tiebreakers may be used. If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine is used to determine draft order. (Note: Strength of schedule is the combined records of a team's 16 opponents, including games played against the team in question, and counting divisional opponents twice. Because of this, each team's opponents' combined wins and losses—counting a tie as a half-win, half-loss—will add up to 256, so a team whose opponents had more combined wins has a better strength of schedule.)
     
  3. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Thanks for putting this together. Agree on the Redskins game. I don't see any team in the NFL losing to a John Beck led Redskins squad.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What is Rex Grossman's deal? Is he hurt or something? I hate to see it but I think Rex is the only hope for losing that game. Unless Matt Moore gets hurt against the Chiefs and J.P. Losman is forced to play that game...
     
  5. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I think Mike has just gone off the deep end. The way he has handled some of his players and QBs since being back in the league is just short of insane.
     
    gunn34 likes this.
  6. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Same deal as it has always been.

    I don't think Beck is any better to be honest. Both have been pretty awful.
     
  7. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    If we fail to fail it's gonna be a depressing next few years.
     
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  8. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I don't see the titans at 10-6
     
  9. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    I agree, although the Karmic Gods might make Beck look like Aaron Rodgers in a few weeks.
     
  10. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    Everyone is focused on Luck, but I still think they will have 3 real good franchise QB's in this years draft.
     
  11. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Not necessarily. If Luck was never in the equation we'd probably still be excited over the prospects of drafting a franchise QB. John Elway was a once in a generation prospect in 1983, and that draft still had Marino and Kelly, two guys who were good enough to lead their team to Championships but fell short due to other circumstances.
     
  12. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Luck, Weeden, and Tannehill:yes:

    and if Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, and RG3 come out early = 6 easy:up: (and I still like Kellen Moore to some degree)
     
  13. electrolyte

    electrolyte New Member

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    There's still a chance Landry Jones or one of the other QB's pan out just fine for us.
     
  14. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    As of right now, Miami is way behind in SOS for the #1 pick if both teams go winless.

    The combined record for 16 opponents (13 teams, since 3 teams played twice) for each team:

    Colts SOS = .546, 65 wins, 54 losses

    Dolphins SOS = .602, 74 wins 49 losses

    It is the division that hurts Miami's SOS compared to the Colts:

    AFC South = 22-24

    AFC East = 28-14

    Clearly looks like Miami is going to need to finish with a worse record than the Colts, Rams and Cardinals (teams with 1 win) to get the #1 pick.
     
  15. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Yep, I think some fans are putting in way too much faith in getting Luck, that getting anyone else would suck.
     
  16. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    It's slightly closer than that thru week 8 (see below)...but yes, our best bet is Indy and all other NFL teams with at least 2 wins, and Miami with only 1. Either way, very interesting.

    [TABLE="width: 318"]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
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    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]W[/TD]
    [TD]L[/TD]
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    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]HOU[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]HOU[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD]CLE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD]CLE[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]PIT[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]SD[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]TB[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NYJ[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]KC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]CIN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]NYG[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]NO[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]KC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
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    [TD]TEN[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD]WAS[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]ATL[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [/TR]
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    [TD]BUF[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]JAC[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TR]
    [TD]DAL[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]CAR[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD]OAK[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD][/TD]
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    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
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    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
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  17. Starry31

    Starry31 Phins and Heels.

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    Losing on a coin flip to a team that has Peyton Manning. That would be so par for the course with the Dolphins that I'll probably have nightmares about it.
     
  18. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    He's played worse than John Beck. Yep, I know, it's hard to fathom given Beck's numbers, but the guy actually played a-okay on Sunday, considering he had no OL (I don't quite know who these guys dressed in Redkins jerseys were, but linemen they were not) and no help whatsoever at WR. If you think we did a bad job protecting Chad Henne, go watch that Redkins game. I suppose Shanny is playing Beck because Grossman would likely throw a dozen picks in those circumstances.
     
  19. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for correction.
     
    BigDogsHunt likes this.
  20. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You promised there would be no math.......
     
  21. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I'm fairly certain that there's no strength of victory tiebreaker in the draft. It's record - strength of schedule - division/conference records - cointoss. That's why you sometimes have several cointosses at the Combine (there were three in 2010, if I recall correctly), but (almost?) never in a playoff scenario.
     
  22. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    correct per Draft rules its only 4 things after fewest wins

    1) strength of schedule, and if that does not resolve a tie
    2) division
    3) conference
    4) If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine is used to determine draft order.


    So per CK's theory, if we have same matching SoS%...and since we dont play in same division, its Conference record.

    If we both win 0 = coin flip

    or if its 1 win records then it depends if the win is Conf win or not...otherwise its a coin flip.

    just more angst for Fin Fans to worry about.
     
  23. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    SOS has to be in Indy's favor no?

    Miami plays the NFC East
     
  24. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    The NFC East only has one team above .500 fwiw.
     
  25. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    The NFC East isn't the issue. The AFC East is. Say the Jets or Bills finish 10-6 and the Jaguars finish 4-12. That's twelve wins (or losses, if you're Indianapolis) that make all the difference in the world.
     
    Conuficus likes this.
  26. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Favor yes, but can it end in a tie...YES it can! Can Miami miraculously win it...YES! but favor towards INDY...Yes.
     
  27. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Jaqs could equally screw us with so few wins.....then again, they could be our savior if INDY beats them in their H2H matchups.....so exciting.
     
  28. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I'm fairly convinced that we'll end up with 2-3 wins that will render this whole debate moot. But yes, it's fun while it lasts.
     
  29. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    But at least Grossman can play well at times. He can even string a good game together. I'm betting our secondary would invoke a performance from "Good" Rex.

    Beck on the other hand, is consistently useless and awful.
     
  30. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    2-3 sounds very generous.

    I see only one I'd feel at all comfortable in projecting (Washington)
     
  31. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I actually think we'll have a very good shot at beating Kansas City on Sunday. We match up well against them and it's the perfect spot for a trap game. Unfortunately, the bookies think so too.
     
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  32. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I think KC winning last night help our cause.
    I don't think this will be a trap game now that they are in a tie for first in the division. Winning gives them alot to play for next Sunday.
    If KC lost last night I think Sunday would have been a trap/flat game for sure.
    I only see 2 potential wins left. Washington (possible to probably) and Oakland (possible to doubtful.)
    I have a really strong feeling Miami and Indy both finish 1-15.
     
    dolfan32323 likes this.
  33. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    WHO TO ROOT FOR/AGAINST

    I converted CK's list into a guide of who we should root for to LOSE and who to root for to WIN to help our SFL chances this season. I know it gets a little more complex if any of these teams play one another, but as a general guideline here is who to root for/against this year if you are a Sucker-for-Lucker:

    Teams We Want To See WIN (except against Colts)!
    ATLANTA
    BALTIMORE
    CAROLINA
    CINCINNATI
    HOUSTON
    JACKSONVILLE
    NEW ORLEANS
    PITTSBURGH
    TAMPA BAY
    TENNESSEE


    Teams We Want To See LOSE (except against us)!
    BUFFALO
    DALLAS
    DENVER
    NEW ENGLAND
    NEW YORK GIANTS
    NEW YORK JETS
    OAKLAND
    PHILADELPHIA
    SAN DIEGO
    WASHINGTON
     
  34. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    WHO TO ROOT FOR/AGAINST : A Miami Suck-for-Luck Fan's Guide to the 2011 NFL Season

    OOPS. Double-post.

    Thanks for the work, CK! It helped make things easier for me to understand.
     
  35. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Every week this just gets a little more surreal...
     
  36. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I still don't think Indy will take Luck, unless they trade Manning which I don't see happening. People don't think Manning has any say in the matter, I think he does and I think they pass on Luck if they still think Manning is healthy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him push to play the last few games or so to ensure they don't have the number one overall. Luck isn't going to sit on a bench for 4-5 years and Manning isn't going to mentor a guy to become a 2nd stringer for his last 3-4 years. Its a tough situation to be in for Indy, they probably want to take Luck but I don't see them keeping both Manning and Luck on the same roster. One of them is getting traded for a ton of picks.
     
  37. CRAZYFACE

    CRAZYFACE Active Member

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    Has the season ended???????
     
  38. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    ANY team that has the chance to draft him WILL draft him....you just don't pass up that talent...it will come down to barkley and jones for the fish...plain and simple...unless the colts want something like 3 first rd picks from whomever in a trade....instead of being disappointed, accept the fact that the dolphins may squeeze out 2 wins..the colts won't...they are horrendous without Manning
     
  39. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think Indy will take him, I think they take the highest bidder in trade. Or they trade Manning, which I think is unlikely. There is no way Manning and Luck are on the same team next year.
     
  40. PhinishLine

    PhinishLine Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dec 3, 2007
    Maryland
    Depends on how you look at it. You have Peyton Manning who is a HOF Superbowl Calibre coach on the field. You can win with him now if you put peices around him. You don't pass up on windows to win the Superbowl. Look what Philly did as soon as they realized what they had in Vick. There is an oppurtunity to do that now. Building for the future is great....but the goal is to win Superbowls. Andrew Luck is a GREAT college QB but we can't be sure how he'll produce in the pros. And its not like Andrew Luck is a bigger draw than Peyton. Peyton is like the most popular player in the league. You aren't going to necessarily increase revenue by picking up Luck either. QBs come out every year.
     
    GARDENHEAD likes this.

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