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Draft Guru Question on Phins Future QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Southbeach, Nov 5, 2011.

  1. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Orrrrr we stop relying on 2nd round QB's, make an actual invest in the position, and take Matt Barkley. There are plenty of nice WR prospects in this class.

    Besides, a pass catching TE is more of a need than WR at this time IMO.
     
  2. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Yeah I got that you liked him a lot lol. I meant what do you like about him? None of us here are experts, and we've all been way off multiple times I would say.
     
  3. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I haven't :shifty:
     
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  4. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    We don't all know this. You are making and assumption when we don't even know who will be calling the shots in next years draft. For a GM/HC to draft a QB when he has just taken over b/c of a disgruntled fan base is ludicrous and a sign of stupidity!!!

    This view that if a team needs a QB they simply draft one in the 1st round is insane. This strategy fails more than it succeeds (depending on how success is defined). Solutions at QB are often found outside of round 1.

    If Miami doesn't get the top pick to take Luck (or Luck gets injured...who knows what the situation will be in April) and Miami has the 2nd pick there is NOT a QB out there that looks worthy of that pick outside of Luck. Barkley might not even come out in this year's draft. To spend a top-10 pick on Weeden, a 29 year old rookie, whose stats are inflated in college thanks to Blackmon would indicate desperation for a coach trying to save his job, not building a team.

    Miami would be much better served taking Blackmon or Broyles, making Marshall a solid #2, and drafting Moore out of BSU in the 2nd round. Or even signing Flynn as UFA are also options. Taking a QB in round 1 may happen, but it is NOT a given right now.
     
  5. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I like his accuracy, and football smarts. And I don't think his arm is as weak as some here would have you believe. I think he can make every throw.
     
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  6. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    adam you are wrong about weeden and he doesnthave inflatede stats people back here love the kid and just because he is 29 doesnt mean he cant have a long career remember Farve and Waren Moon weeden is the real f in deal
     
  7. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    yes, because 2nd round qb's and the free agent scrap heap have worked so well in the past
     
  8. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the only way we don't take a Qb is if we win enough games to finish out of the top 5 and there are already 3 Qbs selected. With the rookie salary cap Qbs are not a huge risk anymore so taking one that we have rated say 10-12 at 3 or 4 is very likely since it is such a drastic need. We cannot wait around till round 2 and pray someone falls, honestly at this point in time I can't believe there is anyone left that believes this is how you build a team, it isn't. Franchise Qb is the top priority, period, end of the discussion. If we don't have one fall to us then we are going to make a big trade. I think ownership steps in if any coach and GM are foolish enough to think we can get franchise talent later in the draft at the Qb position.
     
  9. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Yeah, in today's NFL since the rookie wage cap was implemented, it's foolish to pass on a QB if there is one that you like even remotely in the 1st (obviously if you are needing a QB). Look at how many went last year. We didn't expect Ponder or potentially even Locker to go early in the 1st. They both went along with Cam and Gabbert. Capernick and Dalton went early in the 2nd. If Jones and Barkley declare, it's safe to say all 3 will go in the Top 10. I believe Weeden gets pushed back into the 2nd due to age.
     
  10. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I could easily see Luck, Jones, and Barkley going 1, 2, 3 by pick or trade. As to our Phins as I have posted, in no particular order there is death, taxes, and Miami getting a QB with their 1st round pick.
     
  11. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    I know there has been a lot of speculation about the Colts tanking the season in order for them to get Luck. That may be true, but I see a scenario of the Colts being forced into a decision on Lucks selection. I know there has been talk about Luck maybe refusing to go to certain teams, could the Colts face the same dilemma in that Luck wouldn't want to sit behind Peyton Manning for 4 or 5 years or more? The Colts would be forced to trade Manning or the Luck selection. I just don't know if Luck would want to put his career on hold while Manning finishes his.
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Matt Barkley would be a tremendous pick for the Miami Dolphins in the Top 5 of the 2012 NFL Draft.

    1. He has perfect heel-to-fingertip mechanics. From the ground to the air, his mechanics are extremely consistent and very quick. His delivery is perfect over the top. He gets good spin on the ball. His weight transfer is perfect. He gets over his front leg. And best of all, he's perfectly balanced, even when throwing on the move. He always gets his shoulders square and keeps his feet under him. He aims his shoulders well on deeper throws. On play-action, he gets his head and shoulders around very quickly so that he can begin reading the field and be throw-ready the instant he turns around, if need be. In the past, alen1 has discussed the triangle setup which involves two hands on the ball, with the ball held at heart level and your elbows pointed down forming a triangle with the ball at the top. It allows for a quick release and gives you a lot of control over the ball. A lot of quarterbacks get away from this, but Barkley is pretty consistent with it.

    2. These perfect mechanics aren't just window dressing. They result in consistent accuracy and control on the ball at all distances, even deep. I've processed 7 of his games so far with only the Stanford and Colorado games left to go. So far, 10 of 30 of his deep balls (40+ yards through the air) were caught, with another 3 that went uncaught because of defensive pass interference which was called by the officials. On the other hand, only 10 of his 30 throws were missed by Barkley. The other 7 that went uncaught and unflagged were a combination of receivers dropping the ball, not having the skills to keep their feet in bounds even though the throw was perfect, or not being able to track the ball in the air properly, not being on the same page with a back shoulder attempt, or the coverage being too tight even though the ball was thrown well. At shorter distances, Barkley has superb ball placement, which helps that RAC-oriented system be successful. He gets the ball in a catchable spot and if the player is on the run, he leads the player pretty consistently. I'm usually not a fan of the 1 step drop slant throw. I feel like it leads to a high number of incompletions and a high level of inaccuracy, and on a bang-bang play like that any little bit of inaccuracy can lead to a popped up interception. But watching Barkley throw the 1 step slant, suddenly I'm a fan of it. Why? He's just that accurate with the football.

    3. As another Draft afficianado said not long ago, Barkley's feet are perfectly in tune with his eyes are seeing, which means that as he scans the field and comes off options, he is able to move his feet into proper position for the next potential throw seamlessly, without having to think about it. His feet stay active and he moves around and works the pocket in order to CREATE throwing lanes (such an underrated and too-uncommon skill). As a result of this and his over-the-top throwing motion, I have only seen 2 balls get batted down at the line of scrimmage over the 7 games and 269 throws that I've processed. This, despite his 6'2" stature. That's way below the curve as far as batted passes are concerned. Out of the 36 NFL QBs that have played 25% of their team's snaps or more, that would place him in the top 10 this season as far as rate at which his passes get batted at the line. The NFL average is once every 56 pass attempts. Barkley's at less than half that rate. Why? Because his feet are always actively and instinctively moving to give him the best throwing lane, and he maximizes his height with a good over the top delivery.

    4. When you boil it down, he really has a good arm. He regularly throws on the run at great distances and can fit the ball into very tight spaces on the run, even when rolling to his left which is pretty remarkable. He operates an offense where he often has to throw at distances that even someone like Ryan Mallett never threw. In fact I looked back at my catalog of clips of Ryan Mallett's deep ball and the thing that jumped out to me is how all of Mallett's deeper throws were about 40 to 50 yards through the air. The deepest I could find was a 52 yard throw to Joe Adams, a ball he belted out with nice low trajectory, fit into a tight spot with Adams catching it in stride, a real highlight reel play for Mallett. The thing is, I think I have at least a dozen throws on file from Barkley that all went more than 52 yards through the air. That's the kind of offense that Barkley is in, one that requires him to use play-action to suck defenders in and then make these 50 to 60+ yard throws on the money. And he does. And I've used my software to time some of these throws, try and gauge ball speed, things like that. What's incredible is there's a 61 yard throw of Barkley's that had the same average velocity as that 52 yard throw of Mallett's. And like I said, Mallett didn't try and put any air under that 52 yarder, he just belted it with a nice low trajectory as far as he could. Same velocity as Barkley's deep balls. What arm strength all comes down to is versatility. That's what you're looking for. Arm strength tends to be a "you must be this high to ride this ride" trait, when it comes to the NFL. After that, nobody has been able to show me that incremental increases in arm strength lead to incremental increases in talent. The top QBs in the game right now, guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, have good arms. But they don't have Joe Flacco/Jamarcus Russell arms. They don't have Cam Newton arms. Versatility is what you're looking for and Matt Barkley's arm has shown to be consistently versatile enough to make any throw with great accuracy and velocity.

    5. He's a decisive player. He develops plans, knows what he wants to do out there, and doesn't panic when he needs to come off his plan. There is very little unnecessary hesitation or panic in his game. The decisiveness helps him to throw with great anticipation on timing routes. But it also helps him tremendously on roll-out plays, as you can sometimes find the back side end coming right at you as soon as you get your head around. If you're decisive in those situations then the ball comes out immediately to the flat option and you might even get a big gain out of it. He has a great feel for when he needs to quickly and decisively get the ball out off the roll, and when he can hold on to it a little more and press the sideline option, or hold on a little longer and hit the back side option. His decisiveness combined with his symmetrical balance, arm strength, control on the run and accuracy, make him an excellent quarterback on roll-out plays.

    6. As a result of his perfect mechanics combined with his decisiveness and ability to think quickly, he does a good job of manipulating the ball, throwing with touch and using the pump fake. He excels at making the up-and-down throw, and his mind works quickly enough to make the decision about which throw is necessary for what situation. He excels at pumping the ball in order to move defenders the way he wants them to move. These things are a reflection of mechanics and mental processing.

    7. He regularly displays good vision down the field. You have some situations, like coming off a play fake, where some other players might take some time before they are seeing what they need to see after turning their back to the defense. He does not have a problem with this. He can see cornerback leverage down the field well enough to make a decision about how and whether he wants to throw the ball to his receiver, or if he needs to check the play down to an underneath option. He hasn't made much use of the back shoulder throw yet, but his vision and decisiveness are good enough that he should be able to work on that kind of chemistry with his receivers at the next level. His vision is also clear on the run.

    8. As far as his handling of pressure is concerned, the weapons at his disposal are mostly the traits I have already discussed. His decisiveness is a weapon and he uses it well to handle pressure. His quick feet and symmetrical balance allow him to make defenders miss in the pocket and in the open field. His ability to manipulate the ball and be decisive allows him in certain situations to relieve himself of a defender in the open field with a pump fake which often causes defensive players to leap up and try and knock down a ball that isn't coming. His quick and sound mechanics allow him to get rid of the ball at the last moment, if need be. The way he keeps his feet active allows him to work the pocket and keep his distance from danger. In addition to these things, he has a good sense for pressure via his peripheral vision, can keep his eyes up the field and still sense the rush. As a result of all these weapons at his disposal, I have only seen him take 7 sacks this year, 3 of them coming in games that I have yet to process. This means that in his 287 dropbacks over the first 7 games this year, he only took 4 sacks. Over that time, he felt pressure and threw the ball away 13 times, and scrambled for positive yardage another 9 times. I believe he only has one fumble, against Arizona State. That is ideal. He has Matt Kalil protecting his blind side, but the rest of the offensive line are kind of green and I've seen a lot of pressure come up the middle and over the right tackle. Barkley handles it like a pro.

    9. His communication on the football field with his players is very good. The offense runs very smoothly with him making the calls from the huddle to the snap. He often is communicating calls to his players as everyone is approaching the line of scrimmage and getting lined up for the snap, rather than waiting for them to get lined up. He sees the defensive alignments quickly, as they're getting lined up rather than after they've already gotten lined up. He calls out the Mike, makes protection calls, makes signals with his left hand behind his back to tell his tailbacks what they're doing on the play, and he audibles at the line to get them in and out of successful throw and run plays. He helps the running game with his ability to make calls at the line. All of his players are extremely responsive to him and you're never running into situations where you've got guys holding up their arms because they don't know what to do. I've seen two delay of game penalties this year, but generally speaking not much being flagged for procedural stuff.

    10. If you read anything about him you'll see that he has pretty good intangibles. He's a smart guy, looked to as a leader on the team, respected by teammates. He's kind of a bleached blond Tim Tebow as far as the Christian faith thing is concerned. He's been involved in charitable work, including taking a group of friends to South Africa in 2008 to help run an orphanage. I know that kind of ultra Christian stuff turns some people off, for some reason, but it's generally a good thing as far as football is concerned. I don't share his faith at all, but as a football evaluator, some of those things are definitely check marks in the plus column whether you like it or not.
     
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  13. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Yeah but how do you really feel CK? JK/LOL Great rundown.
     
  14. Pro-X

    Pro-X End Game Club Member

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    When I saw Barkely play against Stanford. He reminded me of Joe Montana. Now don"t get your knickers in a twist, not saying he is Joe, just saw some resemblances, very calm in the pocket and in control of the offence.
     
  15. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    It wouldn't be the worst comparison...

    There are some things I like about him more than Luck right now. I also think the team's current personnel is ideally suited for Barkley and a west coast offense.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think that several of Barkley's positive traits make you want to shape a system that gets the most bang for your buck for his talent. I don't think you necessarily have to make any efforts to mask any weaknesses of his.

    However, his combination of balance, feet, decisiveness, accuracy and arm make him really good on the run on plays where you're asking him to roll out. Naturally, you're going to want to get those plays in the playbook because they hurt a defense. You should marry those roll-out plays with a zone-based ground attack, which makes both the run and pass more effective.

    However, there are elements of his game that make you want to incorporate other elements in your offense. He's really good off the play-action and despite disagreement that I think some people have, I think he's a good deep vertical thrower. He's decisive and can throw with ancitipation. That would make me want to incorporate some constraint and vertical principles into his offense.

    Overall I think he just gives you a pretty wide platform to work with as far as what you can install in your offense.
     
  17. SlyFoxxx

    SlyFoxxx Sorry for Party Rocking

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    If Luck isn't there, you don't reach for a QB. Barkley and Jones are nowhere near Luck's level. If we pick in the 2-5 range, pass on a QB. If we pick in the 5-10 range, pick one up maybe. I don't like Landry's game at all. I'd much rather have Barkley, Grandpa, or RG3
     
  18. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    That's a great benefit of his versus say a Brandon Weeden, although Weeden is interesting in that I wouldn't mind grabbing Blackmon first round, Weeden second round, and perhaps even hiring a coach that runs the Holgorsen version of the Air Raid offense and watching it work. It would be exciting that's for sure. I don't see why New England should be able to run it and Miami wouldn't. The important thing is that you have a power running game to back it up. New England doesn't have that and that's hurting them.

    Oh and by the way if Reggie Bush starts to gain value in this current offense Miami is working under you may see Miami trade him at the end of the year for some value (he's averaging about 4.9 YPC).
     
  19. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Fantastic write-up CK. It's funny, as I was reading through your post, the only face that was coming to my mind was that of Drew Brees. Everyone of Barkley's + traits are one's Drew hangs his hat on and the height similarity makes it even more eery. I've only seen Barkley play a couple of times, but it sounds like we would be much better off with him if we lose in the Luck sweepstakes.
     
  20. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Back in Miami
    :escape2:

    Jacory Harris.... really?
    That kid will never make an NFL roster.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO 1, 2, 3, 6, and 9 owe some credit to outstanding coaching, namely Steve Clarkson.

    If you strip away some of that elite coaching & years of preparation and throw Barkley on an even playing field with Tannehill and Weeden, which QB would seem to possess the most god-given talent, size, NFL arm, and mental capacity for the game? Would Barkley still have the edge over Tannehill, a 3x First Team Academic Big 12, or Weeden who's grasped the game quickly and helped lead his team to a #2 ranking after being away for so long?
     
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I do not see how that is a negative.
     
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  23. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    It means Tannehill can catch up and would be the better guy due to natural talent.
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    But Barkley will always be ahead when it comes to coaching.
     
  25. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    That's great. I'm sure Ken Dorsey was ahead of Cam Newton but that doesn't really mean much. At a similar level of experience and QB development who is going to be the better player?
     
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  26. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That would entirely depend on the type of talent and differences between levels of talent.
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If your aunt had a dick, would she be your uncle?

    You can speculate along those lines all you want but the speculation isn't going to help you. What you're putting forward is a theory that Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill will/would look better than Matt Barkley as quarterbacks when/if they receive the same level of coaching that Matt Barkley has gotten.

    But that theory can only be proven right or wrong one way and that's by waiting 5 years to see what happens. In the mean time all I can tell you is that Matt Barkley does these things and Ryan Tannehill does not. You've certainly offered some background on Barkley's coaching history. What I don't think you've detailed very well is proof that Tannehill has not been coached well enough to look similar.

    You mentioned that guys like J.P. Losman, Ken Dorsey and Rudy Carpenter received the same attentive coaching as Matt Barkley. Well, I can tell you, none of those guys looked like they could hold Matt Barkley's jock strap in college. So is it the coaching, or is it the talent?
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You're assuming that Tannehill is more talented than Matt Barkley. Bad assumption.
     
  29. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Sounds like Aaron Rodgers and Tedford a bit compared to Alex Smith doesn't it?

    How is it a bad assumption? Physical I have no doubt there's a difference in the two as athletes.
     
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  30. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Alex Smith was thought to be the more talented one of the two.
     
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  31. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    It's not a negative, but it does give Barkley a temporary advantage over players who have not had that type of coaching, but thank you for ignoring the rest of my post where I drew that parallel.
     
  32. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Exactly. I remember that really well. I thought Aaron Rodgers was the ****. All things aside it wouldn't be mind-boggling is Barkley actually turned out better than Luck. Sacrilege right?

    Tannehill does have a heck of a lot of similarities though to Alex Smith as far as size, arm strength, and mobility though.
     
  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    You are welcome.

    Weeden doesn't have the time and there is no proof that Tannehill will even take to coaching, which is an added risk.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Because quarterback talent is about a lot more than foot speed, size, and arm strength. Otherwise Jamarcus Russell and Barrick Nealy would rule the NFL with an iron fist.

    And how is this in any way similar to the Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith thing? In fact I'm pretty sure it's the exact opposite. During the Draft, Aaron Rodgers would be the Matt Barkley and Ryan Tannehill the Alex Smith. Smith was coached for a spread option offense and didn't have anywhere near the position polish that Rodgers did. But he was thought to to have a better arm, throw a better deep ball, he was thought to be the superior runner, and thought to have a superior raw intellect.
     
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Why? Are you saying Tannehill won't have good coaching in the NFL, or that the mental aspect of the game is incredibly infinite, or that Tannehill can never close the gap on mechanics b/c there's no ceiling to great mechanics?
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Ah, I misunderstood where you were going with the Aaron Rodgers/Alex Smith comparison.
     
  37. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Not so much the point... More so that there is a difference in Tannehill and Barkley physically and that's about it. As far as what Tannehill will look like as he develops I have no idea. If Miami is in position to draft Barkley I'd be very happy if it happened. We have some very good personnel for him to play alongside and I think he's a day one-starter. He's also going to come in with absolutely no hype compared to the great Andrew Luck. Sort of the Jim Kelly (hopefully without the SB losses) to Luck's Elway with Weeden tearing the league a new one for some team late in the second round.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I believe he's saying that if your point is that Matt Barkley has 8 years of superb coaching under his belt, including during his formative years where habits are more easily formed and/or broken, then regardless of the coaching Tannehill gets in the NFL, Barkley will still have been coached better for longer.

    In 5 years, Tannehill can have been coached by great coaches in the NFL, but assuming Barkley is also coached by good NFL coaches, Barkley will still have been coached well for 13 years, including his formative years, versus Tannehill's getting started only 5 years ago as a 22 year old.
     
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  39. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Exactly. We don't know how much of what is due to what or how long Barkley can fend off his lead against Tannehill & Weeden. Do you take Barkley b/c he's more "ready"? Or do you take Tannehill or Weeden b/c they possess the size, arm, mental ability (and athleticism in Tannehill's case), and attitude to eventually surpass Barkley? That's the golden question IMO.

    Personally, I don't think a 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd year Barkley is going to lead any team to a SB over guys like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Roethlisberger?

    I don't think he's won a championship at any level since high school has he? And it's not like he's been on talent deprived teams, so why would I expect a young Barkley to accomplish this in the NFL? So if I don't think he'll do it during his first few years, then why would I want him over an extremely talented guy like Tannehill who might very well be the better player 4 or 5 years from now?
     
  40. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    How would you grade the QB's, aside from Luck, mostly Jones vs Barkley?
     

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