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Draft Guru Question on Phins Future QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Southbeach, Nov 5, 2011.

  1. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I have several disagreements with your post. First, I don't see 6'2" as undersized. IMO 6'2" - 6'5" is the ideal but you're probably fine if you're at least 6'0" and no more than 6'6". Second, even if Rodgers were undersized at 6'2", what made him elite was not his arm strength but rather, his pocket presence, decision making, release and accuracy. All of which are on par with Barkley, except that IMO Barkley showed better accuracy at this point than Rodgers had. Once you have the ability to make all the throws, the additional arm strength is as minor a benefit at 6'2" as it is at 6'5". Third, I feel that Barkley is as good of a scrambler as Rodgers was in college. I don't know how the actual 40 times will compare, but on the field I saw both QBs escaping and failing to escape from similar situations. Tannehill is a far better runner than Rodgers ever was in college. Kaepernick is a better running comparison for him. And while Tannehill is a better passer, he is still raw and inconsistent at this point. And Sanchez is far less accurate than Barkley. If you had a more accurate (and less girly) Sanchez, you'd probably have a franchise QB.
     
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  2. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Ross has said that he will do any and everything possible to get a franchise type QB this coming off season. I think that would limit the Phins to going after one of the big three by pick or trade. Weeden and Tannehill both have many good things going for them but, I can't see them in Miami's plans.
     
  3. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Landry Jones is big 3? Really? I don't know about that. There's a guy in the SEC that might surprise some and make the entrance. Think about it. All the physical tools, good numbers against far far stronger competition than Luck and especially Jones. It's his fourth year as he redshirted. If Arkansas makes a bid and he's impressive in a bowl game, why take the risk if you have no issues like Mallet.
     
  4. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I'm basing that on Luck, Jones, and Barkley being the only three projected to go in the first round. I have not seen any other QB hated that high by analysts, at least so far.
     
  5. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Maybe not, and there's plenty of time for things to change, but a lot of reputable draftniks like Kiper have him in their top 5 or 10 overall, and top 3 QB.
     
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I believe Barkley is very slow Raf..I see no similarities when it comes to athleticism, escapability talent, and vision on the run between Bark and Rodgers..I think Bark is comfortable as a proset QB and all that it entails, I think his skillset dictates that formation best.
     
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  7. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Scouts, Inc has him #3 overall, graded just a few points below Luck.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If I'm being honest with myself about the differences between Matt Barkley and Aaron Rodgers in college, I isolate it down to:

    1. Rodgers was faster, could outrun more defenders
    2. Rodgers had more running instincts, was quicker to pull the ball down and try for yardage
    3. Rodgers was a little more aggressive with the ball, trying some harder throws (though not necessarily hitting them)

    But at the same time I think Barkley is more accurate and less mistake prone.
     
  9. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I think Rodgers might have a better arm too.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That, I don't necessarily see. I see about the same arm strength.
     
  11. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Tyler Wilson plays on the road against LSU in a couple weeks. I'm just saying...
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Could be an interesting game. I haven't been all that impressed with Tyler Wilson this year. That offense should be a lot better than it is.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Let me correct myself, the passing offense should be better than it is.

    When you have Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Cobi Hamilton to throw to, not to mention Dennis Johnson out of the backfield, not to mention Greg Childs for 5 games...I just have a tough time seeing why you've only got 15 passing TDs in 9 games. A year ago, Mallett had 32 passing touchdowns. Tyler Wilson was supposed to come in and some people kept saying he'd be even better than Mallett...but I'm still waiting to see that. All those guys, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, Jarius Wright, Dennis Johnson...they're all a year older, a year better...but the passing touchdowns are cut in half?
     
  14. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I've heard Childs has had some kind of problems not sure if it was injury or whatever it is. The OL is doo-doo, not sure how it was for Mallet but I remember it being quite a bit better. I do like the tools and the toughness he's showed. He gets hit ALOT. By the end of the year he'll have endured playing against Alabama, LSU, and SC while being arguably the best SEC passer so far, with Bray missing both the Alabama and LSU games. He's two big games away from pulling a surprise entry that will shake up the rankings.

    Now I will give you this, Mallet was probably the better passer coming out after his junior year (with two years under his belt, he made a big progression from his first year to second year starting if I remember correctly), but as far as winning football I'd argue Wilson is better.

    Are they running more in the red zone, because the yardage is flat out there?
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    By the way, fumblitis aside, I can't say enough how much I love watching Dennis Johnson play. A guy that plays so much like Darren Sproles with all that quickness and speed should not be able to stiff-arm and be as powerful as Dennie Johnson is.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It might shake up the rankings of guys like Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles, Kellen Moore and Case Keenum. I don't think it would shake up the rankings of players that you imply it would (Luck, Barkley, Weeden, Jones, Tannehill).
     
  17. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I found the rushing stats. Inside the red zone they're currently one red zone TD away from last year's total, so yes they should beat that pace by the end of the year by perhaps about five to six. Wilson would have to hit about 26-27 to make it a fair comparison. Those games will be against LSU, Tennessee, and Miss St. Wild guess that's about 6-7 TDs without a bowl game. With a bowl game that's maybe 8-9. So he'd have about 24-25 TDs, with his rushing game having almost the remaining amount over Mallet's 2010 team.

    I can't see those dudes in his class of QBs as far as draft potential. Moore I would just throw out on physical comparison, Foles I've watched and just don't like, Keenum I'm not a believer in him in any pro style offense, Lindley really disappointed me, Cousins is a lesser Drew Stanton, I can't lump him in with those dudes.

    As much as we both like Weeden that age issue will probably keep him grounded around the late 1st early 2nd (John Beck slightly plus in rankings), I think Wilson is better than Jones whose draft status might take a big hit once he faces a tough D in a bowl game, and so that leaves you at Griffin and Tannehill. Landry Jones in that video game no-huddle offense struggled against Texas A and M. Wilson smoked them. I can only imagine what he'd do to Kansas State.

    In the coming weeks Wilson will play the 41st, 19th, and 9th overall pass defenses. That's good company to add to what he's already done.

    Agreed on Dennis Johnson. Any idea where he's going?
     
  18. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I just re-watched the Insight Bowl video CK posted. The runs in that game were very similar to the runs that Barkley makes. I think Rodgers has run better in the pros, but when I compare what he did in college, he was very similar to what Barkley is now.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Similar I agree, but with better straight line speed. He's running at a faster pace when he sprints forward for extra yards.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    But Young & Vick are a couple of the game's all-time elite scramblers (which Barkley is not), and Vick has a live arm (which Barkley doesn't) while Young possessed elite, consistent accuracy (which IMO Barkley doesn't). I respect the Delhomme example, but I wouldn't give a top 5 pick for him. Dalton looks good and is showing promise, but he still has a ways to go to be considered a true "franchise" QB. Only time will tell.
     
  22. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Well, first of all, I don't see how anyone can say that Matt Barkley doesn't have elite accuracy. That guy has impeccable ball placement and is accurate at all levels of the field. Very few times does he throw a pass that his receivers have to get vertical to catch or extend themselves very much at all.

    Secondly, I just saw Kurt Warner's top 5 quarterbacks on Total Access. The top 2? Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Now, I don't really care what anyone says about this, but those two are not considered elite NFL quarterbacks because of their arm strength or because of their athleticism. They are elite NFL quarterbacks because they understand the passing game and make plays. Here's the thing though. When those two were coming out of college, they were not considered elite prospects. That fact was centered around a few things. Size was one of them. Arm strength was an issue with both players. The ability to throw the ball down the field was an issue with both players. If you think Aaron Rodgers didn't have questions about his arm coming out, go look at the film. The guy rarely threw the ball to the wide side of the field outside the hashes in that offense. Drew Brees ran Joe Tiller's pass happy spread offense, and he didn't attack down the field outside the hash marks. Aaron Rodgers threw mostly slants, digs to the outside, quick screens to the receivers, and posts down the middle of the field. That's essentially the majority of Matt Barkley's throws. When Aaron threw the ball outside the hashes, he was typically throwing to the short side of the field and was rolling to the side he was throwing it to.

    Basically, in reviewing film on both, Matt Barkley basically makes all the throws that Aaron Rodgers made in college, and he makes them more accurately.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Raf, I never said that Rodgers' arm strength is what makes him elite; I merely said it's one of his attributes that does. If you take away his live arm, he's not the same player.

    When considering the average height of an NFL QB, I consider 6'2 to be slightly undersized, which I don't have a problem with, but I do have some concerns if the player doesn't have other tangible attributes to make up for it.

    I would also expect Barkley to have better college accuracy b/c he's had outstanding coaching for so long, which makes a big difference IMO. This is evident b/c, even though you feel Barkley is more accurate than Rodgers was, Rodgers became an extremely accurate passer in the NFL after being exposed to improved coaching. IMO the key phrase in the player analysis you posted about Rodgers was "physically gifted passer". The accuracy was inside Rodgers all along; he just needed it brought out.

    That "physically gifter passer" trait is the same I see in Tannehill, and with NFL coaches fine tuning his mechanics and cleaning up his footwork to where it's on the level of Barkley's, IMO Ryan can become as consistent and accurate as Barkley. I was a pitcher for 9 years (and QB for 4) so I understand how much mechanics can influence accuracy.

    Does Barkley attempt enough NFL throws to truly call him "accurate"?
     
  24. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I think that's pretty accurate. I'd add "livelier arm" to that list. IMO he also has a fire and level of intensity to him that I don't see as much from Barkley.

    #3 is important and shouldn't go understated. The confidence Aaron has in his arm is something that I'm not sure can be taught, and he's become very adept at knowing when to trust it, which is special IMO. I get the impression that Barkley has been so conditioned to relying on his brain, mechanics, and what he's been taught that it's stolen some of the focus from his arm, where as a guy like Rodgers (who had less coaching) developed a stronger relationship with his arm to make up for it. I get that feeling from Tannehill, too.


    Personally I think Barkley is a less mobile but slightly more accurate Mark Sanchez.
     
  25. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO Barkley's feet aren't both light or quick enough to develop Rogers-like ability in the NFL.

    I can see him becoming more effectively mobile in the pocket after experience and increased awareness, but I wouldn't take it to the level of Brees or Rodgers. IMO Barkley right now possesses roughly average NFL mobility. There's probably a dozen+ starters with greater mobility and a dozen+ starters with poorer mobility.
     
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  26. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So then , with respect , you don't think Barkley has other strong attributes to make him a QB that could win deep into the playoffs and be a final four team , and ideally a Super Bowl winner?

    I think for lack of a better word right now, a lot of people underestimate/overestimate a QB's future performance/ability re their experience. Hardly anyone had a real positive grade/evaluation on Dalton at the end of the grading process let alone this time two years ago. Not saying he is the end all , be all or that he will be a franchise QB , but it sure looks good to me. If he was given a final grade two years ago , how much less would it be than what it is now?

    Barkley is a true third year out of HS player , that is important , that matters. If he stayed for his final year he likely would improve and be stronger in the tangible areas we all are mentioning. Personally , I would prefer he was a Cam Newton clone , he isn't though but I think his height has virtually no impact on what his future pro ability will be , and from I have seen so far , the other attributes certainly seem to be strong enough to not even mention height.
     
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  27. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Why does everything go back to comparing Barkley's arm to Rodgers' in college? What matters is Aaron's NFL arm has become one of the strongest in the league.

    In an article about Rodgers & Cutler (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-01-22/sports/ct-spt-0123-cutler-rodgers-bears-chic20110122_1_jay-cutler-zone-blitz-big-arm):
    None of the above comments describe Matt Barkley, not even closely IMO. If we're using these hypothetical type scenarios, maybe Kellen Moore can gain 4 inches and 35 pounds in the NFL. :tongue2:

    There's no guarantee Barkley's arm even gets any stronger, let alone becomes one of the strongest in the NFL. Did Pennington's??




    So? Rodgers wasn't picked till 24th and had less of an arm in college. He was drafted for his potential, not b/c he was a polished QB. NFL Rodgers is completely different than college Rodgers, so comparing him to college Rodgers is insignificant IMO.
     
  28. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Arm Strength Topic: As far as developing arm strength look at arm length and muscle development. Pennington's shoulder surgeries robbed him otherwise he was actually decent. Aaron Rodgers wasn't quite as strong in college as he is now, that helped. Matt Moore would have a much stronger arm if he actually did some explosive snatch workouts Brady has done, but instead he continues to be an underweight 6-3 quarterback. Arm strength does develop, but I have a strong feeling that Andrew Luck's arm won't be gaining all that much in the NFL. Also another guy to pay attention would be Kellen Moore. I don't think arm strength will be the main issue with him, it'll be height that causes him trouble in the NFL but he may very well have a career. I just don't understand how he hasn't taken care of himself in the gym. He's 6-0 or just under. 205 lbs is that much to ask?



    Rodgers: I disagree on Rodgers. Rodgers was pretty damn good coming out of college. Height, Jeff Tedford, his JUCO status, and stupidity dropped him to 23. He's also on another level to Tannehill on my mind. Rarely do you see true franchise quarterbacks develop out of the late first round guys, the ones that are not considered top franchise possibilities. It happens but it's rare and it usually requires some kind of mitigating circumstance like Brees and his height. The Campbells, Bollers, Grossmans and those guys usually don't work out.

    Development: NFL personnel departments are going to have to take a close look at Tannehill and see if he really is progressing. Not sure on that one, how much has he really changed since he switched positions and had that nice run. Where do you see him going? If it's not a Cam Newton like curve is it really there for him?

    Barkley, Luck, and Rodgers: When I look at Matt Barkley I see a quarterback that has really gotten better as he's gotten used to the level. Rodgers got significantly better. Leinart never did (always thought he was overrated garbage). I'm a little skeptical right now of Andrew Luck. Take his threat to run down a notch as most college QBs do and how good is he? #1 worthy sure, but this world-beater, I'm not seeing it. Without his running I'm not saying wow. I'm simply saying awesome this kid doesn't need much development, he's strong, smart and can make some plays. Is he Peyton Manning no. Is he Elway talented no. Is he some kind of passing dynamo like Marino no. Can he be Kelly, yes? Can he be Aikman? Yes.
     
  29. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Are you saying Gisele Bundchen's good for a QB's development?
     
  30. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Kim's great for running too...
     
  31. finsincebirth

    finsincebirth Well-Known Member

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    How is it insignificant? You have admitted that Pro Rodgers is different than college Rodgers, especially in arm strength. Pro Rodgers had to grow and mature into the player he is today. Is it that unreasonable then to assume that a player who resembles college Rodgers can't do the same and become a comparable pro athlete. If Rodgers can increase his arm strength why can't Barkley.

    Also why not look at Brees. He was also regarded as having a weak arm in San Diego and after that labrum injury it should have derailed his career similar to Chad's. However after intensive workouts after that surgery he was able to surpass his previous ability.
     
  32. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    NFLs going to go into quite the spin if Russell Wilson checks out at 6-0 (or someone gives him slightly higher soles on his shoes). You don't see too many QBs put up those kinds of numbers out of that kind of system.
     
  33. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I think his point is that Rodgers was taken 24th, so Barkley shouldn't be considered a top 5 pick if he is similar to Aaron Rodgers coming out. However, I would disagree in the sense that Aaron Rodgers was an incredibly picked over quarterback whom NFL scouts convinced themselves that he shouldn't be taken high, and now there are several teams who are kicking themselves for doing so. Just as several teams are kicking themselves over Drew Brees, in particular Miami.
     
  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    No, I'm not against him per se; I'm just a little apprehensive.

    The comparison between Barkley and college Aaron Rodgers doesn't quite have me jumping in excitement.
    To me it's saying: a coached-up, fundamentally sound, more polished Matt Barkley is comparable to a less coached-up, not so polished Aaron Rodgers who had a lesser arm & lesser apparent mobility and as such was drafted 24th. To excite me, I'd like to see him compared to players who were very similar to him in college and went on to become successful in the NFL. Show me cerebral, slighter height QBs who were more polished, highly coached up, and had an average at most NFL arm, average NFL mobility, and good accuracy. Purdue Drew Brees fit all the above (he was coached up by QB guru, Bob Johnson, and was an Elite 11 camp counselor during his 1999 & 2000 seasons at Purdue), except IMO Drew's mobility & scrambling ability were better, his feet were quicker, and I thought his arm had a hair more pop to it. Brees also won a State Championship.


    I don't think that Barkley will ever improve to the extent that Rodgers has b/c I don't think Matt possesses as much athleticism as Aaron or is as naturally gifted a passer (which both IMO helps increase a QBs ceiling), and Barkley's currently sound mechanics leads me to believe that he's not a sure thing to see improved arm strength. The above are a few reasons I like Tannehill. Unlike Tim Tebow, Ryan possesses natural throwing ability, so when you combine this with good coaching, good athleticism, coordination, and intelligence, I see no reason why Tannehill's mechanics can't become solid, thus improving his accuracy & consistency while also seeing a potential bump in his velocity.

    Again, I'm not against Barkley; I'm just not as easily sold on him having such a lofty upside.
     
  35. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    More I watch of Barkley the more I'm impressed. You know age rarely gets mentioned but the kid is still a 3 year junior, not too many come out that young out of school so as far as progression he might actually have quite a bit of room. I don't think he's physically at his best yet either. He's made me forget Andrew Luck a little bit. We passed once on Brees in the draft because he was short without upside, we passed on Rodgers because we thought Smith (would have picked him if he was there) would be the guy who had that upside and was taller and even more intelligent.

    TP in the past I've called out the USC quarterbacks pretty well. I thought Booty was junk, Sanchez nothing, Leinart doo-doo to average, Palmer good-to-very good, and Cassell I thought could put up some numbers (in N.E. later). Barkley's not in the same group to me. He's really really different than Sanchez. He's his own guy and now I'm starting to see why he was so highly rated coming out of high school.

    There are two legitimate franchise QBs in this draft. We better get the second one.
     
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  36. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO a more polished, coached up, and filled out Barkley should more resemble an NFL Aaron Rodgers than an unpolished college Aaron Rodgers.

    If we're comparing a more polished, coached up, and filled out Barkley to a less polished, less coached up, less filled out Rodgers, then that in itself is saying he's likely to never become an NFL Rodgers.

    And yes, it's unreasonable to assume a mechanically sound, filled out Barkley will suddenly develop one of the stronger arms in the NFL. It's also unreasonable b/c if it were so easy to develop the way Aaron has (and improve his arm & mobility), then we'd see tons of Aaron Rodgerses in the NFL.

    Are you saying we should try to yank Barkley's arm out of place so we can subject him to shoulder surgery with the hopes it improves his arm strength? lol.
     
  37. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm not against Barkley, and I'd be very happy if we drafted him. What it comes down to me is: do I like Tannehill and his NFL potential better than Barkley's?
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rodgers arm in college Jumped off the screen, i remember his velocity being one of the most impressive attributes about his skillset, don't agree that they are the same...Really fast player in everything he did at the position.
     
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  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    very true, a true junior Barkley is, and something I need to think about more when evaluating him..I hope that mother grabber is still growing that's what I hope,lol..Why do I feel he's gonna come in under 6'2..
     
  40. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    When exactly was Rodgers unpolished in college? He was so polished that scouts thought he was programmed
     

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