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Draft Guru Question on Phins Future QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Southbeach, Nov 5, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    [video=youtube;9BATjEpA6nA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BATjEpA6nA[/video]

    Looking at Tannehill's Oklahoma State game, IMO there are throws that Tannehill makes b/c of his arm strength & natural passing ability that I don't think Barkley is capable of against good coverage.

    1st: 2:25. Lasers a short post TD with a defender draped on his target.
    2nd: 2:53. Under tighter coverage, Barkley doesn't have the arm to complete this 15 yard out from the opposite hash.
    3rd: 3:28. Questionable if Barkley can squeeze this in between the CB & safety.
    4th. 3:50. Even this short 7 yard stop route with the DB's face to the play might be broken up with Barkley's arm.
    6th: 8:02. This 12 route(?) is an absolute rocket by Tannehill that IMO Barkley would be praying isn't broken up, picked, or has his WR killed.
    7th: 8:15. Another lasered 10 yard out into decent coverage that I'm not sure Barkley has in him.



    There are more throws against Arkansas.

    [video=youtube;C2heGLAjiDc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2heGLAjiDc[/video]

    0:41. This roll-out wheel route might have a different outcome if the ball doesn't get there as quickly.
    2:53. I'm not sure this 15 yard deep out is a part of Barkley's repertoire (especially vs tighter NFL coverage).
    3:06. Or this 10 yard out thrown from the far hash.
    4:06. Or this 12 yard out on 3rd & 7.
    4:46. Not sure if Barkley has the arm to beat the corner & safety on this beautiful throw on the run.
    5:00. Another 10 yard out that's likely incomplete or picked if attempted by Barkley.
    5:23. Another deep out thrown from the far hash that Barkley doesn't make in a million years w/o the DB falling down.

    IMO these are some big time NFL throws that would help open up an offense (both the throw itself AND the persistent threat of the throw).
     
  2. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Sorry, I thought that was what Raf quoted in the player analysis on Rodgers so I was just running with that like I was with Aaron's arm strength & mobility even though I believed they were strengths of his at Cal.
     
  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    This was pretty dead-on about Rodgers by DraftInsiders:

    http://www.draftinsiders.com/node/1288

    I love the last sentence. lol @ the foolish Niners.
     
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's what I thought, Deej, but some of these comments had me second guessing my perceived recollection.
     
  5. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I think he'll come in exactly at 6-2 with shoes or however you want to measure that. If Brees is 6-0, Barkley is 6-2 basically. If Brees is in fact shorter then Barkley is slightly shorter than 6-2, that kind of deal.
     
  6. Pro-X

    Pro-X End Game Club Member

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    Every time I see Tannehill throw the ball down field in the video posted above, he always slaps the ball before throwing, liked what Bledsoe used to do. Doesn't have a smooth delivery to me, instead of just slinging it, he slaps it with his other hand then throws...
     
  7. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Barkley's runs a pro-style offense. He is making NFL throws. I think you're way off questioning his accuracy. I think his ball placement is actually above Luck's and it is better than what Rodgers showed at Cal. And Rodgers' accuracy, along with his decision making are the main things that have allowed him to succeed in the pros. He didn't have a size thing to overcome b/c it's not about average heights, it's about being able to look over and through semi-crouched lineman. Once a QB is above 6'0" is not much of an issue b/c they can see. Barkley's accuracy and decision making is at least on par with what Rodgers showed coming out. I see no reason to believe that Barkley isn't the same level of prospect as Rodgers was.
     
  8. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Pretty sure USC has been on probation since he was a freshman or sophomore. That being said previous championships don't have much correlation to NFL championships. And on that topic championships have so much to do with the team as a whole that you can't fully credit a championship to a QB. Hell trent dilfer has a superbowl, yet danny marino doesn't.
     
  9. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Too add something to this.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft05/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2039797

    I'm using this comparison because Aaron Rodgers is the guy that I feel Matt Barkley may be the most similar to among the NFL quarterbacks. When Aaron was coming out, there were definite questions about his ability to throw the ball vertical and outside the hashes to the wide side of the field. He played in an offense that didn't ask him to do it.

    Same as Matt Barkley, IMO. Matt plays in an offense that is based on timing and accuracy, much like Jeff Tedford's offense. It places an emphasis on quick throws that get the ball out of the hands of the quarterback and are relatively safe throws. They don't ask him to throw it vertically much, but when they do, he is typically accurate because of his timing.
     
  10. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's why so many Tedford QBs have failed. There's nothing wrong with his system, it's just QB friendly. So it gives the QBs easier throws and easier reads. When those same QBs go into less QB friendly systems they look much worse. You see the same thing with Philly QBs who look terrible elsewhere. IMO Rodgers was helped immensely by having to sit in GB. It allowed him to know the offense so well that he was able to use just use his skills rather than having to think through everything. I think that if he had been thrown into the mess of a system we had here that there is a very good chance that he'd be considered a bust.

    So the question regarding Barkley is, "is he in a QB system that is masking limited ability?". I don't think so. IMO accuracy, decision making and the ability to extend the play are the most important characteristics needed for success. I see his accuracy and decision making as elite. I think his poise and pocket awareness are also elite and they allow him to escape and to know when to run and how to extend plays despite average running ability.
     
  11. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Barkely seems to be compared to Rodgers a lot in this thread. Just a question, honestly we will be playing any Qb we select in the first year or two, Rodgers didn't play in his first few years. Do you think Rodgers was ready right away, is Barkely ready right away? I don't think its a bad thing for Qbs to play right away and struggle but what would have happened if Rodgers had to play right away and played poorly?
     
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  12. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    I remember that draft pretty well, and recall the analysts (correctly) speculating that if Rodgers got past a certain part of the first round (I think it was something in the early teens) he would be in for a rather precipitous slide since there was a major block of teams that weren't particularly looking for a QB at that point. But he was, in fact, considered a top-5 talent and there was a decent amount of back and forth about who the better QB prospect was.
     
  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Rather than start a new thread, let me pose this question to the draft gurus here:

    In your opinions, what is the better strategy assuming we miss out on the Luck sweepstake:

    Trade the farm for Luck; or,

    settle for one of the other QBs?

    Is Luck better enough than the rest of these guys to make it worth trading this year's and probably some of next year's picks away?
     
  14. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Not a guru, but if Barkley is there I take him. If I'm no man's land between Barkley and say Tannehill I either trade down for Tannehill or sell the farm for Luck (three firsts). Either one isn't that bad of a strategy if you give it time to work. Often times when teams don't have first round picks it forces them to find players in lower rounds by necessity and they do well. The Raiders have blown many firsts lately, but their scouting department works extra hard and has found a number of finds lower in the draft.

    The Dolphins in the 2000-2004 drafted arguably better then they did in 2004-2007. They had some finds later in the draft guys that would have worked out of the team stayed with the same system and others that worked out well because the team put a lot of effort into the later rounds. After that when the first rounders returned they blew them on stupid needs, RTs, RBs, #2 WRs, mediocre safeties...

    Now on the other end if you go for the trade down strategy you try to become what the Ravens became. A team that puts the most talent around a quarterback and watches him grow like the Ravens are doing. That can work too you just have to make sure you keep hitting on your needs.

    So I ask you this in your mind:

    - Tannehill+2nd+1st(16th overall)+1st(16th overall)

    versus

    - Andrew Luck (plus a huge number of endorsements and fans coming out don't forget that)

    It's really tough to say, but I would actually go for Luck. Problem is I don't see Indy passing on them. Especially when Polian is apparently this bad at drafting. The greater question becomes if St. Louis is there at 2 and you don't want Cleveland or Seattle to get Barkley:

    Is Tannehill+1st

    better than:

    Barkley

    That one I'm struggling with.
     
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  15. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    VG question. I do not claim to be a draft guru but, believe Luck is more of a "sure thing" than the others, and would at least test the waters on that trade.

    One intriguing scenario of many is Indy has the top pick and a healthy Peyton. Miami is in position to get Jones or Barkley, who the Colts also like. Indy can get their QB of the future while keeping Peyton happy, and getting him immediate help.

    If that were to happen, speculation is that the Colts would want players more than picks. Peyton's contract is not very cap friendly, and we have good young talent which is cheap. Davis, Smith, Misi, and Odrick come to mind.

    I could see some type of a package worked out in helping both teams.
     
  16. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think the Rodgers/Barkley comparisons are very generous indeed. Very generous. I don't see much in Barkley's game, least of all downfield accuracy, which continues to be an issue for me, that reminds me of Aaron Rodgers. You're looking for an NFL passer who can make short, accurate throws on slants, screens, bubble screens, etc. then Barkley is most definitely your man. You're looking for a passer to make consistent NFL throws with accuracy down the field and with the sort of pace on the ball to fit into tight windows against press cover corners......well I just don't see it.

    I've seen an awful lot of QB's and graded an awful lot and I'm pretty meh on Mr Barkley. But I respect Chris and Keith's opinion and they see a totally different player to me (and Richard).
     
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  17. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I'd probably move up for Luck b/c of the excitement that would generate and everything else it would bring. I also believe that you can more easily fill any other holes once you have the QB and that Luck is the surest thing at QB available.
     
  18. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    If you're talking about making throws down the field as far as deep outs? He hits on those. Which routes are you concerned with?

    Honestly I don't see Andrew Luck throwing Chad Henne like laser passes in the midrange if that's the case. He's throwing balls that can get knocked down or picked and they're starting to in fact.
     
  19. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, depending on how far down we are, you'd be an idiot not to at least gauge the waters. I think if I were GM I'd be looking in the region of 2012, 2013 and 2014 number ones, someone like Phil Merling/Hartline and possibly even someone like Davone Bess or Vontae Davis.

    If not and again depending on where you pick, I'd take Landry Jones. But I'd want a fairly serious look at Brandon Weeden.
     
  20. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Also depends what kind of system you want to run. If you want to run a spread offense, Landry Jones is fine behind a big line. If you want a WCO heck no.
     
  21. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not the many games of his I've seen. I see a lot of misses. I don't think I've seen him throw a deep out.

    The routes I'm concerned with are those over about 18 yards.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just can't stop studying RG3..

    I've been looking at his body very closely because there seems to be some concern..This kid is 6'2 legit, and is built correctly, has strong tendons, and thick bones, very wiry player, I'am sure he is much stronger in his physique then people realize..

    He's got dreamy eyes on the field, and the reason why he is so accurate on his deep stuff, is because he sees it.

    I know some respected members don't like him, but damn, kid has innate ability that needs to be respected, or at least looked at very closely.
     
  23. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    But why would you make Jones a WCO QB anyway? Barkley on the other hand could be a very fine WCO QB.
     
  24. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I like him very much especially down the field but I have two issues:

    1. I don't believe he's 6'2.
    2. Chris made a very valid point; he will take a pounding at the next level.

    But he's very intriguing and his downfield accuracy is as good as I've ever seen.
     
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  25. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Well then we're evaluating some very high quality prospects if that's the case. My opinion on Jones changes tremendously if he's playing out of a spread, especially a no-huddle one. The same for Brandon Weeden.

    I'm just tired of seeing players put into the worst possible positions by a bunch of incompetent talent evaluators.

    I'll give you this on RGIII. If he ran what Vick does in Philly with an adapted WCO (it's not even a WCO really anymore), he could be successful.
     
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  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll say this, I believe RG2 is more of a legit 6'2 than Barkley is, ive stated that I have some concerns on whether Bark is that tall..CK's concerns are usually why I study the player extra hard when I'am fond of a player, I think his body is strong and dense even though it appears lean, and can take as good as pounding as most QB'S GO, obviously if you run him more than usual, than common sense comes in to play, however, isn't this the skillset we all want?, {sans Luck of course} he's not that prototype dual threat, Kid can pass the ball from the pocket so you might not have to go full on spread read option, which will keep him from some pounding.
     
  27. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Considering what Vick does in Philly if Griffin has great protection you can do whatever you want with him. The concern is that times he won't and like Vick he'll be blasted constantly. There's a reason people like Weeden he has a knack for getting rid of the ball.
     
  28. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I know you qualified your comment by where we pick but, three #1 picks in addition to two good young players is extreme. JMO. IF we can offer a Jones or Barkley, I do not see the price anywhere near that high.

    Although it does not matter, Merling is a FA after this year. NOT a deal breaker. LOL
     
  29. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    What if it's just Jones though?
     
  30. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    What if Indy likes Jones more? Peyton has been known to be in the shotgun a bit.
     
  31. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I don't think the system matters to them anymore. They'd scrap that and build around the quarterback. So it's really another question. In their best system for their capabilities who is better. Landry Jones out of a spread? Barkley out of a WCO? Then you add points to whoever can do both because of their versatility years down the line. Tough question really. Robert Griffin enters the discussion too. What he's doing is incredible. He could honestly be better than Vick in the offense Vick runs right now. He's worlds apart from Vick as far as what Vick was at the college level. No comparison even...
     
  32. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    IF the same coaches stay, and IF Peyton is kept, I have to think they would want a QB, along the same guidelines, to be somewhat groomed by Manning and the coaches. We would be looking at the next 3-5 years for Indy with Peyton.

    Hard for me to imagine the Colts wanting a different type of QB to learn something he has to forget.
     
  33. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Jones isn't that type really. Not the same reads. They'd be better off with Tannehill doing what Painter tried to do. Barkley would be a closer fit.

    RGIII in the spread offense at the NFL level. That thought intrigues me. That could be something special, exciting, it's what Ross could want.
     
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  34. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Our 1st and which players though? Not giving our 1st and Vontae. The others are dispensable.
     
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Rodgers might not have been asked to make those throws to where he could be evaluated on them, but at least he had the live arm to make them, and he obviously has the strong arm & quick release to currently make them. Barkley might have the arm capable of making some of those throws, but I'm not sure if it's strong enough to be trustworthy.
     
  36. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Wow, if that's the price, they can keep him. 3 1st round picks and 2 solid starters (exception Merling)? Remember, the 1st rounder this year is the #2 or #3 pick of the draft. It's not like they are moving down 10 spots. My limit would be our 2012 1st, 2012 2nd, and potentially 2013 1st (and I mean potentially - would have to think long and hard about that one). No players included in that.
     
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  37. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    For me, I'd either trade the farm for Luck or "try" to trade back for Tannehill.

    If I couldn't trade back for Tannehill, I'd take him where ever we sit because that'd be too high for Weeden, and I wouldn't want to risk passing on Tannehill and then completely missing out on Weeden. Heck, if I could, I'd use the extra draft pick [from trading our 1st] to take Weeden since it's essentially a free pick and let those 2 battle it out. Worst case scenario they're still tradable.
     
  38. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    The reads would be up to coaching. I believe that Jones is a better fit for Indy than Barkley. I do not see Weeden,Tannehill, or RGIII entering into the picture.
     
  39. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Not sure what it would take PP, just throwing a few names out there. Indy does need help on the OL, and just about everywhere on their D.
     
  40. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    At this point, Weeden, Tannehill, and RGII are not even projected as first round picks. Although that could change, I see us doing something at the top of the first round, instead of the bottom.
     

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