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2011 MMoore v Pennington's 2008 season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by padre31, Nov 21, 2011.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    6 more games of high production, MMoore is on a nice run but can he keep it up and put?



    To be in the mix for comparison to Penny in 08:

    Last 4 gms worth of QBR:

    58.5/147/75.2/133.3

    Completion %

    59.1
    73.9
    69
    70


    He lacks the consistency needed to enter that Near Elite level, a 40% swing from week to week in his Qbr, meaning TD production, his completion percentage is outstanding for a comparison to Pennington's 08 Season:

    97.5 QBR
    19 Tds
    7 int's
    67.4 Completions
    3,653 yds
    223 ypg

    MMoore currently:

    85.8 QBR
    7 Td's
    5 int's
    63.6% completions
    1,319
    188 ypg

    Now to me, Pennington was the perfect Qb for the 08 Dolphins, MMoore is a fillin, but, as I glance at MMoore's numbers in comparison, imo he projects to:

    15 Td's
    10 int's
    65% completions
    2,447 total yds

    Since he threw 3 int's in his first two games (SD and NYJ) he has settled into about 1 int every other game, 6 games left, 3 int's, 7 Td's in 7 games, but he could pass that as Moore tends to throw TD's in bunches, he has 4 gms with -0- Td's and 2 gms with 3 Td's, making that a difficult number to project.

    Fun stuff, he won't catch Pennington's 08, but he is on pace to have a solid season, in terms of Completion % and QBR
     
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  2. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    His numbers are a reflection of the team. If the talent improves, a talented OL is assembled, and the skill positions continue to improve he can succeed.
     
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  3. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Chad Pennington was awesome that year. It was really fun to watch.
     
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  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is one of the reasons why I went through the bother, Penny was our best Qb since Marino hung'em up, so comparing MMoore to his 08 season seems like a fun little thread.

    "If" MMoore had started since gm #1, if his production had stayed level, he would have passed Penny's 08, in fact if Henne's numbers are added to MMoore's:

    Yds: 868 + MMoore's 1,219=2,087
    Td's 11
    Int's 11
    Qbr: 79.5

    As I glance at Henne's stats in his 4 starts, what strikes me is he played similarly to MMoore, the difference being MMoore created more Td's.

    Imho that is a place where stats do not tell the whole story, Henne's numbers were comparable, but if you watched both of them play, there is no question that MMoore is far better, for example with Henne we had 1 20+ output gm on offense with Henne, and 3 less then 20, with MMoore we've had we've had 3 gms of less then 20, but still averaged more ppg as MMoore's has had 3 over 20 pts games in a row.

    W/Henne 17.25 ppg
    W/Moore 21 ppg
    W/penny in 08: 22 ppg
     
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  5. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And that's how QB's are judged (right or wrong) by an offense's point production and wins.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    True, I'm not wild about stats and the NFL, I do like them when used in comparisons or trends but not to say one guy is better then the other.

    Kinda cool that we are averaging almost as many ppg as we did in 08, in fact it is really percentage points difference as 08 was something like 21.567 and 2010 it is 20.6 something, inow, no real difference, MMoore and those 4 ppg we've picked up since then has made all of the difference and why we are winning ballgames.
     
  7. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    What I like is that in the same way that Pennington worked well in the mixed Air Coryell of Henning, Moore is adapting well to Daboll's adjustments. What's going under the radar is that Miami's skill players and Moore are meshing well in an attack that honestly looks like a West Coast offense at times. The WRs, Clay, Fasano, and Reggie Bush all are productive pass catchers that are finally doing the things they should be doing instead of going 25 yards down the field in a spread pattern. I'm a little giddy thinking of how much easier it is to find good WRs for a West Coast offense than it is for say an Air Coryell.
     
  8. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    That 2008 year by Pennington was the best from a Dolphins QB since Marino. It was so much fun watching a QB you could count on to win a game. Let's be clear. Matt Moore isn't that guy. At least not consistently. He did this once with the Panthers and came back the next season and played terrible.
     
  9. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Let's be clear? That's a pretty bold statement. Tough to assume what happened to that garbage Panthers team is what will happen if you continue to improve with the same system.
     
  10. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This could just be me blabbering, but I think a big thing (going all shouright on you guys) is how much better Matt amoore is at handling Brandon Marshall. I dunno. You see a lot of the guys getting more involved with Moore at QB (Clay, Bush, Fasano) than Henne. I think Chad had a lot of pressure on him trying to force the ball to Marshall. Pressure put on him and Marshall. We call the Sam amount of plays to Brandon, but lately (in Moore's first 2 starts it wasn't the case) you can see Moore looking off Marshall and finding someone else. The TD to Bess was a great example. A fabulous blitz pick up from Thomas, he looks to Marshall it isn't there goes to Hartline in the back nothing, then hits Bess on the in cut. So quick. He stayed within the pocket and maneuvered around. Rather from what I saw Chad do and that's force it to Brandon or look off, put the head down and try and run.

    I think Moore has much different way of handling the players and it helps his decision making. That's just a minor thing. Right now, his confidence is so high he's living off of that and the team's confidence.
     
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  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    To be clear, things did not happen like that MB, what did happen is Delhomme was injured, MMoore filled in 07 and 09 and played well, Delhomme was gone in 10, he had 4 starts and tore his labrum ending his yr, Clausen filled in the rest of the way in 2010, and went 0-12.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, a great point but keep in mind, MMoore dealt with Steve Smith in Carolina, who makes Marshall look like Steve Largent in terms of being calm and cool headed, Henne was not equipped to deal with BM, MM dealt with a guy who broke bones in his teammates on two occasions by sucker punching them.
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well updated:

    After the Cowboys gm:

    -63% Completion percentage
    -YPG 200.3
    -YPA 7.3
    -Td to int ratio 8 to 5

    Pennington's 08:

    -97.4 QBR
    -67% Comp
    -7.7 YPA
    -220 ypg
    -19 to 7 Td to int ratio

    Last 4 gms for MMoore:

    -114 Qbr
    -68.1 completion percentage
    -7 to 1 Td to int ratio
    -225.2 YPG

    INOW, that is Pennington in 08 numbers, slightly better then Penny in 08 the truth be told, now I do not consider him good enough, as of yet, to obviate the need for a young Qb prospect, but:

    Recognize how well Matt Moore is doing in 2011, if he keeps that up over the last 5 gms, we will have an interesting offseason as he will wind up with pretty much Penny's 08 season pro rated for the lack of starts.
     
  14. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It just seems to me the whole team is more into playing the game every week, having a good time. It seems to be night and day with MM as opposed to CH at QB as far as attitude and the like. I cant include Dallas, since I had a house full of relatives in my house so I couldnt pay attention to the game. (WHAT wuz I thinkin)
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well ATL, not sure if that is just the offense gelling, or they buy into MMoore.

    What surprised me is MMoore performance is so close to Penny's in 08, even to the point of outplaying him for stretches.

    5 gms left, if he continues to play at that level, it can only be a good thing, I'd like to see him do it, but for this thread it is all about the numbers and not my feelings about MMoore.

    Here is a good example of why I thought MMoore would stumble v Dallas:

    He usually followed up a 130+ Qbr with a mid 70's one, in this case he followed up a 133 with a 99.5.

    That was against the #10 ranked D in the NFL, he struggled vs Washington, but against Dallas, he statistically upped his performance.

    Which is the sort of trend that says "he is improving".
     
  16. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    He was playing hurt in 2010 with the Panthers. I think that contributed heavily to his down play that season. In 15 starts where Matt has been healthy, he has posted a quarterback rating of 92.26, completed about 62.5% of his passes, and has thrown 18 TDs to 8 INTs. That's a 7.5 YPA average.

    I maintain that Matt is a good quarterback, but the problem is that Miami needs a great quarterback.
     
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  17. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    a great QB we don't need; Griese wasn't great .... Marino was - let's compare SB wins .... that's not a knock - just a fact. We can list 10,000 reasons for both cases, but none-the-less.

    all we need is a good to above average QB ... that's it

    am i sold on Matt Moore, god no ... but i did bring up a few weeks ago with Pads about his 'bad luck-circumstances' that he has dealt with at every level in his football career. what i certainly believe is that he is a guy we should keep around ...
     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, not quite, here is why, a "modern" Qb has to be able to throw for a minimum of 25 Td's in a season, or 6-7 2 td's games and 9 or 10 1 Td games.

    I'm not sure if I can see MMoore doing that, and above all things in my view the Qb has to produce passing Td's consistently as the sort of "efficient Qb who moves the chains down the field" approach is what is no longer really valid, they now must throw for Td's to cap things off.
     
  19. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    What Moore has shown so far is that when the Dolphins are playing another bad NFL team and the defense is playing great, he is able to be effective at the QB position. When the Dolphins play against the better teams in the NFL, Moore has not shown the ability to make the plays necessary to consistently score touchdowns. His play inside the red zone against the good teams has been below average. Moore is a very good backup QB, but that is all I ever see him being throughout the rest of his career.

    I will admit that Moore is a better NFL QB than Henne, but I have never felt that Henne was very good to begin with.
     
  20. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Pads, this is another example of stats being misleading. While Moore has had some nice games, he still is weak in the red zone, or our scheme is weak in the red zone, but either way, he has the same problems that Henne was having in the RZ and that's where a QB makes his mark....
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    not so, prior to the cowboys game, we were 8/10 td's in the redzone

    And let me add, when brees/Brady lites up a poor d, why isn't the same thing said?

    And Dallas and Wash were top 15 D's
     
  22. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Does Matt Moore have any trade value?
     
  23. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Calling him a back up quarterback isn't a valid characterization of him, IMO. Back up quarterbacks do not consistently put up ratings in the 90s as a starter. He's not great, but he's also not just a back up.
     
  24. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    There's just something about the guy; he does make plays. He still has issues, but its pretty obvious that he can be leaps and bounds better than Chad Henne and more importantly the team plays with more life with Moore at the helm. Saying that doesn't mean we shouldn't try and procure a quality player at the position via the draft, but the reality is that we should be enthused by the prospect of having a competent YOUNG quarterback on the team.

    But it does appear true that in some ways the fanbase believes he is not competent due in some part to the path he took to get here.

    If you fix the o-line to some degree this offseason I think Moore will show he's better than many are actually giving him credit for.
     
  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, keep in mind, 5 games left, you sort have to wait and see how he does Conu and KB, I chose Penny's 2008 because to me, that is the celing for a "Efficient" Qb, like Matt Cassel's 2010, so far he is holding up well.

    He also sort of puts the final nail in the Henne coffin so to speak, there is simply no way around drawing that conclusion.

    Back to the theme of the thread, Moore will need to:

    Continue his torrid Td production pace, 2 Td's in the last 5 games will come close (on avg), 1 Td on avg and he winds up with 12-13 Td's.

    He has 1 int to "give" so to speak.

    Maintain that over 100 QBR on avg.
     
  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well:

    1 Td/52% completions/160 yds/85 Qbr/YPA down to 6.38

    For a total of:

    1,607 yds 63% completions 8 Td's 5 int's

    With 4 games left, he won't catch Pennington in any raw production stats, Td's or Yrds, and he remains 2%+ behind Pennington's 08 Completion percentage and 12 QBR pts behind Penny's 97 QBR of that yr.

    He can catch Penny in efficiency stats, that is not out of reach, especially with a struggling Philly D up next.

    His QBR trend is downwards, 133 to 99.5 to 85.8

    His Completion % is also moving downwards 70 to 59 to 52%

    Hmm, personally I thought the problem today was guys were not winning one on one matchups on the underneath stuff.
     
  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Pennington: 97.4 QBR 67.4% completions 19 Td's 6 int's 3,653 7.7 YPA 24 sacks fumbles 3 1 lost

    MMoore 2011 w/2 games to go

    QBR 88.7 60.8% Completions 12 Td's 6 int's 2,081 7.4 YPA 30 sacks 11 fumbles 5 lost

    Not bad, MMoore could catch Penny in Td's possibly completion percentage, QBR is a longshot.

    All in all, if Penny was seen as the last good Dolphins Qb, MMoore is making his case with 2 games left, liked that he played after being knocked out of the game last week.
     
  28. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    So hes like every other QB we have had right? Listen I think Moore has earned the right to come back next year and compete for the starting position. Even if we draft a young QB whos to say he will start immediately? Ross is looking for a QUICK turn around and want the kid to sit a year or two while they rebuild the team as much as I dislike it..
     
  29. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    Moore is looking like a Coryell/Norv Turner type QB. I happen to like that style, but its becoming more rare these days. the Chad Henne spread experiment has almost disappeared from the playbook, a credit to Daboll imo for realizing what he has.

    Moore is efficient but still not producing enough in terms of completions and yardage. He is getting the look of a feast or famine QB. He is either completing the ball down the field or not really at all it seems.

    I haven't quite closed the door on him
     
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  30. DolfanTom

    DolfanTom Livin' and Dyin' w/ Ryan!

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    That was what mistake-proof football looks like. I mean, short of the two Ravens games, that guy was just as clean as it gets.
     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    3 BM drops did not help matters, 2 for Td's.

    What surprises me is how few attempts he has per gm, usually just over 20 attempts.
     
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  32. pacadermng67

    pacadermng67 New Member

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    I cant wait to seem him against the Jets again. I am thinking he has improved greatly since that game since he now has many more reps as the starter.
     
  33. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    that's a problem. his lack of attempts are also his own doing when he misfires on 3rd down. and when he misses down the field, he becomes the backup people think he is. That also happens when the protection breaks down. he becomes sort of useless
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That is a good thought, in fact, that is as good of a yardstick for MMoore moving forward as he has had all season.

    Jets got in his kitchen in his first start, he's improved a lot since that game but it remains to be seen by how much.
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I do not think that is the case maynard, in fact I think this is by design, someone called him a Coryell/Turner Qb and I tend to agree with that view.

    He's much more of a TD/Checkdown guy who is more likely to take shots down the field then to dink and dunk ala Penny, that is to say, Penny was better then MMoore at the dink and dunk stuff.

    Let me point out though, Pennington had 66 starts heading into 2008, MMoore had 12, it should surprise no one it has taken him time to get up to speed, but to me, being colourably mentionable in the same breath as Pennington is as high of a compliment as I can think of for a qb like Matt Moore.
     
  36. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    that was me :wink2:

    the point remains that he still has to be able to move the chains consistently.

    if you are thinking to yourself that you want to build a team around him, he prob. needs a stronger run game and better protection than most guys. but his accuracy doesn't quite warrant trying to build around him an make him the next Aikman or what have you. it's also where Penny separates himself

    because in a scenario where you think you can build around Moore is one where you probably take a Lineman or a Tight End. A lineman in the 1st round will give this fan base a heart attack

    that said, i think with a more solid line (which we need anyway) and similar play from our RBs, I think Moore can get you in the playoffs. Super Bowl, i doubt it
     
  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    We'll see maynard, he is still over 60% accuracy, I do think he can do much better given time and more starts.
     
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  38. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    the next two games are as good of a litmus test as you can ask for him. he is settled in and knows the offense.
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I agree, somewhat, there is a danger in getting TO wrapped up in the sort of "bowl game" mentality, meaning his film speaks for itself by this point to put to much weight on any one game, or two games seems a bit misplaced imo.

    Right now MMoore is like that great GF in college, you've been going out for a couple of weeks and thing seem good, but..give it time.

    Not to contradict myself however I really really have to see those accuracy numbers go up, accuracy is the foundation of a Qb like Moore's game, he's not Tebow and he's not Rivers, he is more of a counter puncher type of Qb and has to have that accuracy to make it work long term.
     
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  40. maynard

    maynard Who, whom?

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    i mean it in terms of drafting a QB with the first pick. there isn't any time beyond these next two games.
     

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