1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Suck for Luck? NO. But there will be PLENTY of QB options.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Section126, Dec 4, 2011.

What do you do?

  1. Draft Best available QB in 1st rd.

    87.0%
  2. Make Trade push for Peyton Manning.

    1.3%
  3. Make Trade Push for Phillip Rivers

    6.5%
  4. Matt Moore is out guy, use draft pick elsewhere.

    5.2%
  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I wouldn't give up top picks from the future for Rivers..but If I was the GM for the chargers, I would be shoppin his ***..lol..

    I think Kendall Wright is a legit first rounder Ro..
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  2. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

    12,587
    1,574
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Washington DC
    I'd easily give up 2 1st round picks + more for Rivers. Wouldn't even think twice, honestly.
     
    Anonymous and PhinsRDbest like this.
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    agreed, and Greg Jennings is in my top 5..Kendall wright is explosive.
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I'd rather give up that much for RB3 or just keep the picks and take Tannehill. Rivers is a bum, one of the most non clutch QBs in the NFL.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Trying to match quarterbacks with teams, not necessarily with draft order. It's an approach that has availed me in the past in mocks and whatnot.

    Obviously you have Indianapolis and Andrew Luck being a match. Luck may not be totally willing but he'll have little choice as it sounds like Indy will play hardball.

    To me, I'm seeing a match between Washington and Ryan Tannehill. There could be some crossover in terms of Tannehill's experience in Mike Sherman's and Tom Rossley's offense, as I believe they always coached a WCO in Green Bay. At the same time I look at Kyle and Mike Shanahan's tendencies in what they like in their QBs, they seem to like the idea of a guy that they can mold to what they want, Kyle in particular. Grossman and Beck will do whatever they ask to the letter, and this is one reason they reportedly did not get along with Donovan McNabb. I see Tannehill being a piece of clay they feel they can mold, since he's only about two years of experience being coached as a quarterback at Texas A&M. But one thing I absolutely know that Shanahan loves is a QB that is big, strong, fast and has a big arm. That's Tannehill.

    Matt Barkley would seem a match with Seattle, Cleveland AND Miami. If Mike Holmgren could love Matt Hasselbeck and Colt McCoy (he unilaterally made the decision to draft Colt), he could love Matt Barkley. Pete Carroll recruited Barkley to USC and I believe his decision to start him as a true freshman was fairly unprecedented. And of course, there's the report out there that I now FULLY believe, that says that Jeff Ireland is super high on Matt Barkley. Jeff may be kept at least through this next Draft, and even with Steve Ross exerting himself a bit more in these decisions, I think it would be fairly easy for Ireland to convince Ross that Barkley's the right guy. Ross has a keen ear for what "they" say and right now the stock on Barkley is scorching hot. Thing is, as much as this would give the impression Miami needs to trade all the way up to #2 to be assured of him, I'm not so sure. Holmgren has to feel pressure to win right now because he's been in Cleveland for a couple of years now and they still suck. He went the rookie route already with Colt McCoy and that hasn't worked out. This is the same guy that once traded a 1st round equivalent for Matt Hasselbeck. If his channel checks on Matt Flynn show positive (and I fully believe they will, I get the feeling the Green Bay staff really do love him but see no way to keep him), then he may decide to go that route before the Draft even happens. Meanwhile Seattle is 5-7, still play games against Arizona and St. Louis, and they don't have any special amount of trade ammunition to try and get a quarterback. They don't really have all that many assets for sale.

    Pete Carroll has long been in love with Carson Palmer. He once called Palmer (not too long ago) the best quarterback prospect to come out in this decade. He was not nearly so praising of Mark Sanchez. Given what he likes in Carson Palmer...and given Carroll's proclivities toward taking secondary options and trying to get lucky (Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson)...doesn't Brandon Weeden make a whole lot of sense? I know I can't be the first guy that has watched Weeden play and been reminded a LOT of Carson Palmer. I could really see Carroll manipulating the Draft a little to try and get him. On the other had, both Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson are athletic quarterbacks that can run. Carroll may be convinced that's what it takes in this league and if that's the case he may love the idea of Robert Griffin, III. Then again, Carroll could very well be cool with Landry Jones.

    The Jaguars have their guy. The contract renewal for GM Gene Smith is a billboard up for everyone to see that says they're not giving up on Blaine Gabbert. If the Jets are going to make way for any quarterback, it will be Peyton Manning. They're not drafting one. The Bills are already having a little buyer's remorse on the contract they gave Fitzpatrick but I doubt they're renegging on it so soon. The Bengals clearly have their man. The Raiders paid through the nose for their man. The Chargers have their man. The Patriots, Steelers and Ravens aren't even a question. The Texans may have TWO guys (perhaps that's being a little over-optimistic about a guy who was a pet favorite of mine). The Titans have two guys and when they're done with Hasselbeck it will be Locker's turn. The Cowboys and Eagles have their men. The Packers, Bears and Lions have theirs. The Saints are not going to lose Drew Brees. The Vikings have their man and boy what a day he had until that final throw today. The Panthers obviously have their man. Another day, another 4 touchdown performance for Cam Newton. He's twice the player Tim Tebow is and gets half the attention. The Bucs will not give up on Josh Freeman. The Rams will not give up on Sam Bradford.

    I TEND to doubt that the Cowboys will get rid of Tony Romo...BUT you never know. If they do, I doubt Jerry would do it for a rookie. But I could see him being the guy to offer the Patriots that 2nd round pick for Arkansas alum Ryan Mallett...and having Mallett train on one more year under Romo to see if Romo is going to salvage his career in 2012...and if not they turn to Mallett. That's a situation that makes a ton of sense to me. Arkansas people LOVED Ryan Mallett. Jerry is an Arkansas man. I could see him not getting into the running for him this year because the need wasn't there. You've got Tony Romo as your franchise guy and Jon Kitna is proven depth. But Jon Kitna will be 40 years old next year and Tony Romo's starting to mess up a few too many times so I could see Jerry starting to want to hedge without doing something super drastic. And I could see Bill Belichick being OK with the trade as long as it's to the NFC.

    That leaves Arizona, Kansas City, San Francisco and Denver.

    Arizona gave Kevin Kolb a BIG contract, and they paid a lot to get him. Is that front office really going to be OK with ditching him so soon? I don't think so. I think they'd ditch Whisenhunt before Kolb, but for now they just beat the Cowboys in Kolb's first game back from injury, and at 5-7 with games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Seattle...if they win enough that will make them even more bold about sticking with Kolb. If I'm picking a match for Arizona, it's still Kevin Kolb.

    Kansas City on the other hand may have had enough of Matt Cassel and enough of Todd Haley. But on the other hand, they may just ditch Haley. It's still Scott Pioli that runs that team and he's the guy that traded for Cassel and gave him a big contract a year later. Pioli could very well decide that if Todd Haley can't make it work with Cassel then he's keeping Cassel and finding someone that will make it work. And if Brian Daboll shakes off the Miami situation then I could see Pioli being drawn to him as an offensive coordinator after what he's done this year with Matt Moore. It would be a system closer to what Cassel worked with in NE when he had a great season and won 11 games. So if I'm picking a match for Kansas City, I think it's still Matt Cassel. Will they hedge it, though? That's the question. That's where I could see Pioli steering toward someone like Nick Foles of Arizona, who I think is someone that Pioli would find attractive given his experiences in New England with Brady.

    That leaves San Francisco and Denver.

    San Francisco SHOULD by all rights have their man in Colin Kaepernick. But has he shown Jim Harbaugh enough? I don't know that he has, but Harbaugh tends to think pretty highly of himself, and I could see him thinking that he can MAKE Colin Kaepernick into something. HOWEVER, if Robert Griffin falls to their pick...I think the talent is just too much for Harbaugh to pass up. I don't think he minds collecting quarterbacks and seeing how they shake out, and I know that in his mind the two most important traits to evaluate in a quarterback are accuracy and mobility. And I'll be damned if he could look at RG3 and not think he found the perfect combination of both. It's a long shot for RG3 to make it down to San Francisco's pick and I'm sure some people would be straight up appalled that I'd even suggest it, but I don't see RG3 as an elite QB prospect and I think there are a lot of NFL people that also will not, and if Seattle and Miami pass on RG3 then I could see him falling to San Francisco's pick. Would San Francisco choose Brandon Weeden? In my opinion, no. Go back to Harbaugh's two most important traits, accuracy and mobility. Yeah, Weeden's got the arm and accuracy. But does he have the mobility? He's got more than people know, but not enough for Harbaugh, and since he's already got Kaepernick and I'm sure Alex Smith would re-sign if they want, the 49ers are not going to act desperate at the QB position.

    Then you have Denver. Would they take RG3? My answer is...NO. They have Tim Tebow and if they want to get away from that style that comes with Tebow then it's not going to be for RG3. This is a second team, aside from the Seahawks, that I could see being perfect matches for a Brandon Weeden. We've already heard a rumor that they've been checking Weeden out and like him. I could see John Elway loving him, adoring the fact that he could bring the Broncos back to playing normal offensive football. But the thing is, since he's not a high profile guy, and he is sort of a value type of player, then I could see this being a perfect match for them because they'd have a lot of irate fans if they grabbed a player that everyone knows is most definitely going to replace Tim Tebow in the future. They would not take a Landry Jones, IMO. I could even see them justifying the idea of using Brandon Weeden AND Tim Tebow in games, rotating them.

    So...here's the rundown...

    1. Indianapolis - Andrew Luck
    2. Washington - Ryan Tannehill
    3. Cleveland - Matt Flynn
    4. Miami - Matt Barkley
    5. Seattle - Landry Jones
    6. Kansas City - Matt Cassel & Nick Foles
    7. Arizona - Kevin Kolb
    8. Denver - Tim Tebow & Brandon Weeden
    9. Dallas - Tony Romo & Ryan Mallett
    10. San Francisco - Robert Griffin, III
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I don't see any new GM in San Diego justifying that. This is Phil Rivers' first real year of struggling in his entire pro career, and he's injured. He's got an 81 passer rating. But in previous years he had a 92, 82 (but with much better TD/INT ratio), 106, 104 and 102. Even Ben Roethlisberger had a few weird, down years in 2006 (75 rating) and 2008 (80 rating).

    Don't hold your breath waiting for Rivers to be available.
     
    MrClean likes this.
  7. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

    24,217
    36,005
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    OK... so I want to take a QB in the 1st wherever we pick... however I HAD to vote for aquiring Phillip Rivers. Is that seriously an option? I'll take him all day... **** a rookie. A ridiculously talented QB in his prime? Just b/c hes had 1 down year?

    All day...
     
    dolfan32323 likes this.
  8. Sethdaddy8

    Sethdaddy8 Well-Known Member

    13,006
    6,368
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    NJ
    There are a few things working for us. This is a QB heavy draft, there is a lot of parity and bottom feeders who will have 5, 6 or even 7 wins...and there are a lot of bottom feeders still rebuilding while highly invested at the qb position.
     
  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Honestly if we're going to talk about off-the-wall type options at QB then I see Tony Romo and Matt Schaub being bigger possibilities than Phil Rivers. I don't even see Rivers as an off-the-wall, kooky possibility.

    But if the Cowboys miss the playoffs then I could see Jerry Jones start to sniff around for better options, getting tired of Tony Romo's crazy decision making in crunch time. Jerry Jones could find that option in Ryan Mallett, a guy that was universally loved in Arkansas, where Jerry's black heart is still located. Bill Belichick has to be thinking of trading Mallett eventually, and trading him to the NFC would be ideal because they like Mallett and don't want to run into him much if they can help it. If the Dolphins DO win a lot more games and Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland ARE kept then I could see them both being high on Romo and hoping to get him the kind of change of scenery that they once gave Chad Pennington in 2008.

    As for Matt Schaub, this is a crazy, off-the-wall, totally kooky possibility but...well, the Texans have had Schaub for 5 years now and he's been injured in 3 of them. He made it through 11 games in 2007, 11 games in 2008 and now only 10 games in 2011. He made it through 16 games in 2009 and 2010 but he's not doing them any good if they keep trying to get to the playoffs and he keeps getting hurt right when they're trying to do it. I mean, 2007 they weren't a legit playoff contender but in 2008 he had a 6-5 record in games that he played in, 6-4 if you don't count the Minnesota loss where he was out of the game by halftime. But on the year they were 8-8 and couldn't reach the playoffs. Now here they are, they're 7-3 and playing a game and in the middle of the game he gets hurt again, they're again in the middle of a playoff run...a significant one this time...and he's hurt again and won't come back for the whole year. Do you trust this guy, if you're Houston?

    Now consider this. T.J. Yates the rookie who according to Matt Schaub learned the offense faster than any quarterback he's ever seen, himself included, just finished off his second victory. He took over a 17-10 ball game in the middle of a two minute drill before half time, led them to a chip shot field goal and preserved the 20-13 victory. He led the team to a 17-10 victory the following week against an Atlanta Falcons team that had been red hot (winning 5 of their last 6) and looking to go to the playoffs. When Yates took over, Gary Kubiak (who is very high on him) spoke specifically about Tom Brady and Kurt Warner, talking about how this is a league that is funny what happens and chances come for guys and this could be Yates' time to step up like they did, etc. If he's already bringing up Tom Brady and Kurt Warner then he's already mindful of the possibility (slim as it may be) that Matt Schaub is Drew Bledsoe or Trent Green.

    What happens if the Texans keep winning games? Forget how much they win them by, what happens if they just keep winning? They've got a helluva defense, just as the Pats did the year Brady took over. Guys like Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, let alone Owen Daniels, Jacoby Jones, Joel Dreessen and James Casey...and what I think might be the best offensive line in football...tend to make things a little easier. So what if he keeps winning? Do the Texans entertain trade ideas for the 30 year old Matt Schaub?
     
    MrClean likes this.
  10. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

    25,411
    5,743
    113
    Dec 6, 2007
    With how well Smith is playing would San Fran burn a first rounder on a QB?
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    On the right guy, yes I think so. And I think for Jim Harbaugh, RG3 could be the right guy.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Good to see TJ coming thru for that team, good find for them...I would shop Shaub too if I were them, I just wouldn't want him over my picks.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Again let's keep in mind this is a very LOW odds outcome we're talking about. Yates would have to keep winning games, even doing some damage in the playoffs, and at some point start looking better than he did today.

    However, another thing to keep in mind is...Carl Peterson is the guy that's probably advising Steve Ross the closest right now. He always seemed to steer toward the veteran in Kansas City. Steve DeBerg, Dave Krieg, Steve Bono, Rich Gannon and Elvis Grbac were all veterans that had been around the block, most of them more than a few times. He traded a pick for Joe Montana, and he traded a pick for Trent Green. Both were veterans.

    If this extremely low odds scenario plays out where Yates just keeps winning and eventually Kubiak is looking to trade Schaub and go with Yates as his guy...I know one guy who is placed very close to Steve Ross' ear that will start chirping about trading for a proven player like Schaub. Same would probably be true of Tony Romo.
     
  14. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    23,683
    44,619
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Interestingly enough, Greg Jennings was also drafted in the middle to later part of the 2nd round; 52nd overall I think.

    With Wright, he's listed at 5'10" 190lbs running a 4.40. Is he really 5'10"? Is he really going to run a 4.40? How much a product of that offense is Wright? I think all of those are pretty legitimate questions to ask of Wright, and it might be that there are enough dings to drop him right around where Titus Young and Greg Jennings were drafted. I'll stand by my prediction that he's not a 1st round pick for right now.
     
  15. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,969
    3,367
    113
    Jul 5, 2009
    What would 30 touchdowns a season ruin?
     
  16. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,969
    3,367
    113
    Jul 5, 2009
    Are we talking about Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers? The Quaterback?
     
  17. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

    85,620
    51,681
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    I only read the first 10 replies... I really hope nobody said anything about using Matt Moore as trade bait next year once the rookie qb we select is ready to play. I mean, we finally get a quarterback who is showing us something every Sunday and some fans get it in their head that this new found quarterback should be used for trade bait. Need I remind you how many quarterbacks we've gone thru the last dozen or so years? We, above any fanbase in the NFL at the moment, should realize the value of a quarterback than can be depended on to win ballgames on Sundays. I'm not saying Matt Moore is a starting quarterback on every Sunday. But I am saying he's dependable... a very solid backup at this point. Lets see him the rest of the season... draft a quarterback in the first round next year... keep em both and let the one who wins training camp next year be the day 1 starter. You'd expect it to be Moore. And that would be fine with me. Eventually the rookie would be the starter, but that doesn't HAVE to come next year. Play it year by year.... and be happy.
     
  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    Apparently it's ruined a lot for SD this season, seeing that it's not 30 TDs and all.

    Did I say "touchdowns" might ruin what we have going on or did I say Rivers might ruin what we currently have going on?

    Many feel he's the 2nd worst choke artist in the NFL behind Romo. Plus there's the douche bag aspect that needs to be considered. This team is playing unified, and there's a chance that a guy like Rivers might un-unify it.
     
  19. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    13,969
    3,367
    113
    Jul 5, 2009
    I don't see how he would ruin anything. Wasn't Marshall a douche bag? Or Jay Cutler? They've both been fine.

    Bringing in Philip Rivers would only improve this team. He's elite, or really good according to DJ. Point is, we would be much, much better with Rivers than we are today.
     
  20. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    If we don't go QB in the 1st, the player I'd want next would be Matt Kalil. :)
     
    dolfan32323 likes this.
  21. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

    39,245
    10,681
    0
    Dec 2, 2007
    Miami FL
    :pity:
     
  22. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    Oh my god.
     
  23. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    26,254
    17,386
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Orlando
    Keep this regime and watch it happen Sec.

    We're going to win with tackles and guards, 'kay.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    I could get with taking David DeCastro and putting him at Left Guard, either moving Vernon Carey back to Right Tackle or having Nate Garner start there, moving Richie Incognito over to Right Guard to compete with John Jerry who actually played a semi-decent game for once.

    A five man line of Jake Long, Dave DeCastro, Mike Pouncey, Richie Incognito and Nate Garner would have a pretty vicious combination of competence, violence and athletic ability...IMO. Get the right OL coach and run game coordinator and you could set those guys up to be as successful as the Texans' OL which I think could be the best in the NFL right now. That could set Daniel Thomas' run production aflame, if you can keep him healthy.

    But the thing that would tempt me just as much, if not more...would be to take Courtney Upshaw and find a way to get Upshaw and Wake involved in rushing the passer. We all know Jason Taylor is not long for this team. A tag team of Upshaw and Wake has immense potential for this defense.

    I'm going to go ahead and assume Mo Claiborne is off the borard where we pick. Is Alfonzo Dennard good enough to tempt us in the 1st round? Does that allow you to put Sean Smith at Free Safety and see if he can't pick off the passes from that spot that he can't pick off in man coverage as a corner? Coverage is extremely important in today's NFL. I'm not sure I am a believer in Dre Kirkpatrick. Thing is, I feel like this is a position I could find later. I'm a big fan of Larry Parker's (notice he had the game-sealing interception this weekend, his 7th of the season) and I also really like what Leonard Johnson showed against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The only bargain basement OLB that I can think of would be Jamie Blatnick.

    So I feel like if I need more help at the CB spot and I'm kind of sick of waiting for Nolan Carroll to get it, and I'm not sure Jimmy Wilson is more than a nickel guy, I can take a value guy later and that guy can be a good cover man that is capable of making plays and allowing us to move Sean Smith to free safety.

    And you can ALWAYS get value on the OL later in the Draft, especially interior OL.

    But can you find a Courtney Upshaw later in this Draft? I don't think so. On the other hand if the team is moving to more of a static 4-3, can you get a Quinton Coples later in this Draft? Again, I don't think so. I've not been a fan of Coples going like in the top 3 or 5 area, his effort is a little too inconsistent for that, but we're currently picking #8 and that seems to be going down rather than up.

    This is all presupposing that I've got to take QB off the table in Round 1, for whatever reason. Say we've decided to take Weeden in Round 2 and we know he'll be there for us to take. In that scenario I suppose my wish list would be:

    1. DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama (depending on scheme)
    2. OG Dave DeCastro, Stanford
    3. DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina (depending on scheme)
     
    MrClean and dolfan32323 like this.
  25. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

    39,245
    10,681
    0
    Dec 2, 2007
    Miami FL
    This team really doesnt have a choice but to take a QB in Round 1.
     
    Section126 likes this.
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Somewhere in there, I'd find myself wanting to stick WR Michael Floyd of Notre Dame, just because of how talented he is. If you've got it in the back of your mind that Brandon Marshall is a ticking time bomb and you'd like to start getting his replacement in order...Floyd would be good for that.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Sure they do. They could take Brandon Weeden in the 2nd round and get an even better player than if they forced a 1st round selection on Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill.
     
    MrClean likes this.
  28. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    except that When Weeden will have gone through his learning curve, he will be ready to retire.
     
  29. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

    10,191
    4,187
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Bradenton,FL

    Trades for 1st round QBs happen all the time, why couldn't we do it?
     
  30. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

    30,718
    5,415
    113
    Jan 6, 2010
    The question is going to be....

    What is Miami willing to give up for Barkley? and will they pull the trigger....I hope they do.....
     
  31. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

    30,718
    5,415
    113
    Jan 6, 2010
    I actually had a dream the other day that Miami did draft Kalil and kicked Long to RT....

    Totally unrealistic and not happening, but if that were the case their OL would be unstoppable...
     
  32. wpgfishfan

    wpgfishfan Member

    2,081
    580
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Winnipeg, Manitoba
    I still think its not a slam dunk that Luck or Barkley get picked by the Colts and whoever ends up top 4. There will be trades on draft day and maybe somehow Miami can come up with one of these 2

    The hype on Luck is so high that the media will start to find faults on him and maybe Indy drops from 1 to 4 to get Barkley and the extra picks

    The problem is we could be drafting in the 10-14 range
     
  33. wpgfishfan

    wpgfishfan Member

    2,081
    580
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Winnipeg, Manitoba
    What if Luck and his dad decide they do not want to play for Indy. This is still a possibility. I think Denver did OK getting Elway after he declined to play for Baltimore I believe
     
  34. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    14,074
    11,142
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Chicago, IL
    Vinny Curry from Marshall. Too bad we run a 3-4. He'd make a great end. I don't know if he's athletic enough for the 3-4.
     
  35. JimToss

    JimToss Thank You Chad Pennington

    2,938
    2,410
    113
    Oct 11, 2009
    Delaware
    If I could get Peyton Manning, I would get Peyton Manning.

    If you were to trade up for Barkley, you are likely looking at nearly the same draft pick price, of course Peyton comes with a $20mil cap hit.

    #18 in a Dolphins uniform would make me shed tears of joy.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    You expect Brandon Weeden to retire within a year? That's interesting.

    Because nobody has been able to prove to me that the learning curve for a passer is on average more than a year. Many of these passers make immediate impacts as rookies. Most of them by their 2nd seasons are playing about as well as they average in their career, if not better.

    Here is a list of guys drafted from 2001 to 2010 that played signfiicantly in their 1st and 2nd years, their 1st year passer ratings, 2nd year passer ratings, and career ratings. Judge for yourself.

    Player - 1st Yr Rating - 2nd Yr Rating - Career Rating
    Michael Vick - 62.7 - 81.6 - 80.1
    David Carr - 62.8 - 69.5 - 74.9
    Joey Harrington - 59.9 - 63.9 - 69.4
    Patrick Ramsey - 71.8 - 75.8 - 74.9
    Byron Leftwich - 73.0 - 82.2 - 79.7
    Rex Grossman - 74.8 - 67.9 - 70.9
    Kyle Boller - 62.4 - 70.9 - 69.5
    Ben Roethlisberger - 98.1 - 98.6 - 92.6
    Eli Manning - 55.4 - 75.9 - 82.1
    Alex Smith - 40.8 - 74.8 - 76.1
    Jason Campbell - 76.5 - 77.6 - 82.8
    Kyle Orton - 59.7 - 73.9 - 79.3
    Vince Young - 66.7 - 71.1 - 74.4
    Matt Leinart - 74.0 - 61.9 - 71.6
    Jay Cutler - 88.5 - 88.1 - 84.5
    Tarvaris Jackson - 62.5 - 70.8 - 76.4
    Trent Edwards - 70.4 - 85.4 - 75.4
    Matt Ryan - 87.7 - 80.9 - 86.5
    Joe Flacco - 80.3 - 88.9 - 85.6
    Matt Stafford - 61.0 - 91.3 - 79.4
    Mark Sanchez - 63.0 - 75.3 - 73.6
    Josh Freeman - 59.9 - 95.9 - 79.5
    Sam Bradford - 76.5 - 72.3 - 75.0
    Tim Tebow - 82.1 - 87.9 - 85.9
    Colt McCoy - 74.5 - 76.9 - 76.1
    Average - 69.8 - 78.3 - 78.2

    And so I ask again, where's this long learning curve?

    Better yet is looking at case studies of guys that are actually good players (or commonly accepted as such), which I guess we're presupposing Brandon Weeden is otherwise we wouldn't be looking at drafting him period. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler all had better passer ratings as rookies than they have for their careers. Michael Vick had a higher passer rating in his 2nd year than in his career. Josh Freeman and Matt Stafford both had passer ratings in the 90's by their 2nd years. I'd say about 5 of the 10 guys that are commonly accepted to be good had high impacts even as rookies. And now you look at how guys like Cam Newton, Andy Dalton...and maybe even Christian Ponder and T.J. Yates...are doing as rookies?

    I just have no idea what this argument is based on that Brandon Weeden will be nearly retired by the time he gets any good. It's not based on anything concrete, really.
     
    MrClean, eltos_lightfoot and Bumrush like this.
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Let's take a look at the issue of longevity in late-blooming quarterbacks that don't really get their shot in the NFL until they're in their late 20's.

    The important thing to realize is that the #1 reason a quarterback stops playing games is because he's really not any good and teams tire of giving him chances. That's why a guy like Chris Weinke just doesn't fit in this study. He didn't start only 20 games because he got old. He started only 20 games because he wasn't a good quarterback.

    So what I've done here is gathered up the guys that really didn't get started playing and starting games in the NFL until their late 20's, that went to at least one Pro Bowl.

    Quarterback - Age Started - # of Games - # of Pro Bowls
    Warren Moon - Age 28 - 203 Starts - 9 Pro Bowls
    Len Dawson - Age 27 - 157 Starts - 7 Pro Bowls
    Steve Young - Age 30 - 114 Starts - 7 Pro Bowls
    Roger Staubach - Age 29 - 110 Starts - 6 Pro Bowls
    Daryle Lamonica - Age 26 - 84 Starts - 5 Pro Bowls
    Sonny Jurgenson - Age 27 - 144 Starts - 5 Pro Bowls
    Jim Kelly - Age 26 - 160 Starts - 5 Pro Bowls
    Jeff Garcia - Age 29 - 116 Starts - 4 Pro Bowls
    Kenny Stabler - Age 28 - 144 Starts - 4 Pro Bowls
    Kurt Warner - Age 28 - 116 Starts - 4 Pro Bowls
    Trent Green - Age 28 - 113 Starts - 2 Pro Bowls
    Brad Johnson - Age 28 - 125 Starts - 2 Pro Bowls
    Joe Theismann - Age 27 - 124 Starts - 2 Pro Bowls
    Charlie Conerly - Age 27 - 107 Starts - 2 Pro Bowls
    Mark Rypien - Age 26 - 78 Starts - 2 Pro Bowls
    Jeff Hostetler - Age 30 - 79 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl
    Jake Delhomme - Age 28 - 96 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl
    Billy Kilmer - Age 28 - 114 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl
    Danny White - Age 28 - 95 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl
    Bill Kenney - Age 26 - 74 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl
    Ron Jaworski - Age 26 - 140 Starts - 1 Pro Bowl

    You have an average age of 28 years old, which by the way will be Brandon Weeden's age at the start of his rookie season. You have an average # of starts of 119, which is about 7.5 seasons' worth. You have an average number of Pro Bowls of 3.4 per player.

    So tell me...would you really be disappointed if Brandon Weeden only gave us about 8 years and 3 or 4 Pro Bowls?
     
    MrClean and ssmiami like this.
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    That's the question with Weedon. Is he a good QB prospect? If you think he is, then he's high on your board and the age is only a secondary factor you use when picking between him and another prospect. If you don't think he's a good QB prospect then the age doesn't matter b/c he's not on your board anyway. That's why I see all this discussion about his age as largely irrelevant (I know you were responding CK, so I'm not implying that your work wasn't worthwhile). Anybody who thinks he's a good prospect but takes him off their board solely based on his age is missing the big picture, getting a good QB.
     
    MrClean likes this.
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    If you're looking at drafting a Brandon Weeden and you want to know how you should treat him due to the age, I think you're forced to separate out the issues of learning curve, skill, and longevity. That's why I did separate studies above instead of just case studies.

    As a more mature guy with professional ball experience, he keeps getting cited by his coaches as being ahead of the game because of his age. That should persist in the NFL, as he'll continue to be ahead of many young players. If the functional MAXIMUM learning curve in today's NFL is only one year before you're making about as much impact as you'll make in your career on average, and maybe even less, I think with his increased maturity factor you would lean toward the minimum (Roethlisberger, high impact immediately) versus the functional maximum. If about 50% of the guys that end up really good are impacting a high amount as rookies, I think you'd lean toward Brandon Weeden being part of that 50%.

    Then you look separately at the longevity of guys that really didn't get started throwing the ball a lot in live NFL games until they were in their late 20's. The problem is, as I said, TALENT is the #1 reason you're going to end up taken off the field, even at advanced age. Is it any coincidence that among the 1-time Pro Bowlers I listed, those guys started an average of 99 games versus an average of 126 games for the guys that went to multiple Pro Bowls? No. It's not coincidental at all. So if we're presupposing that Brandon Weeden is a talented enough player to make at least one Pro Bowl, then you're looking at about 119 starts which is about 8 seasons give or take a few for an injury here or there. And of course, the average number of Pro Bowls among these guys is between 3 and 4 Pro Bowls.

    Bottom line is, this shows that #1 and #1a issues for Brandon Weeden are simply whether or not you think the guy is an elite talent. I know there are people that do not, and that's fine. I do. But if you think he's an elite talent, age is NOT the reason you stay away.
     
    MrClean and dolfan32323 like this.
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Exactly.
     

Share This Page