THEORY: Jeff Ireland will draft Robert Griffin III

No, they weren't considered stellar. That's the effect that's hard to quantify. During that game one of the announcers noted that a couple of the old defensive vets were focused on the game while the offense was on the field. The announcer was a former player and he said that by his 9th year he was sitting down drinking water when the offense was playing. He attributed the interest these vets were showing to Tebow. He also mentioned conversations with the defensive players who had told him as much. On NFL Network Irvin commented on how the defensive players quotes were starting to sound like the things Tebow was saying. Irving said that when players sound like their coach we give the coach credit b/c the players were "buying in" and that to be consistent then Tebow deserves that credit now. Another former defensive player was talking about how he felt it was over when their team got down especially late and about the inevitable let down, but that with Tebow the defense believes that they're never out of it. IMO that's the effect of Tebow's leadership. How much of the improvement in the defense should be attributed to Fox and how much should be attributed to the QB's leadership? I don't claim to know the answer to that. But it seems to me that the people who were all predicting Tebow would fail don't attribute any of the defense's improvement to to the QB's leadership. I think that's unrealistic.

 

i would probably be fine with that. not sure about the rest of the fanbase

 

It's funny how that happens. How it's not the "system", it can be the QB who is the catalyst which gets the team playing up to their potential.

 

Obviously you're joking since it was clearly the switch to an offensive system that fit Tebow that allowed the team to buy into that leadership. If you don't have a system that fits your QB then you're almost always doomed.

 

No, because they weren't. They hadn't gelled in the new system yet.

Am I to believe that Tim Tebow made his defense great by granting them God's favor?

 

Always thought that was the funniest thing Rafi, a "system" Qb, EVERY Qb is a "system" Qb.

Fisher+RG3, would be fairly optimism inducing, would like to see it tbh.

Crazy to think Fish is the same age as Sparano.

 

the fact that you even have to ask is a problem

 

I believe the "logical" explanation is that Tebow just makes the defense try really, really hard. He has the opposite effect on opposing defenses. The don't seem to try at all at the end.

 

Back to Robert Griffin, here are some examples of how I see things differently from some others. Not necessarily more accurately, I just can't help but see what I see and if it's different from what these guys see then I'm going to disagree. It's only natural.

Here's an in-depth breakdown of Robert Griffin, utilizing video.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/979087-robert-griffin-iii-2012-nfl-draft-scouting-report

The very first video is a video that is meant by the article writer to show off Robert Griffin's accuracy.

[video=youtube;ECtEm9-sX_I]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECtEm9-sX_I[/video]

But here's what I see on the play that is concerning right off the bat. Why did he bail on this pocket? As a quarterback you need to step up and out, not bail to the outside like that. He did not need to bail on this pocket. By doing so he basically tossed the play in the trash can and played some playground football instead of making reads.

The play sets up a triangle read with the inside post receiver and the outside vertical receiver, forcing the safety to that side to declare his coverage. If he commits outside to the vertical then the inside post will come open. If he commits inside (which is the case here), then the outside vertical will come open. The pocket is not broken. You need to climb the pocket and continue reading that safety, then make your throw with proper timing and accuracy.

What ends up happening is the left corner bails Robert Griffin out of a bad decision. The corner either didn't know what the responsibilitie were of the other players on his defense, or he didn't care, because he peeked into the backfield to see what Robert Griffin was doing be it running or passing. The defense already has a spy assigned in case Griffin breaks containment, and furthermoe the underneath zone cover guy that passed off the inside post receiver can also be a first responder in a broken containment situation. The corner is really the LAST person that should be worried about whether Robert is scrambling or passing. But he pulls a Jason Allen and so Griffin is able to fire the ball into the end zone to a receiver that is somehow still open even though Griffin screwed up the timing of the play.

What I want to know is, why did he bail from that pocket? Considering some things I've seen have already led me to believe that Griffin does not see the field and make reads well from inside the pocket, and wants to get out of the pocket in order to get clearer vision, this play is another red flag for me...whereas everyone else can't stop gushing about the touchdonw he just threw.

The next video, the writer actually does highlight a bad decision by Griffin...but claims that it's "rare". I'm not so sure, given what I feel is the root of the problem.

[video=youtube;XP8V2S0WYaU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP8V2S0WYaU[/video]

This play is a moving pocket, basically a play designed to get Griffin to a side of the field where he can see the field better and make a better throw. He executes. I'm going to pause the play at 15 seconds, right as Robert gears down as he reaches the left most portion of the "X" in "TEXAS A&M". You freeze that, and he's got the vertical receiver dead to rights. The receiver (probably Kendall Wright) has separation on the corner vertically, the safety has committed to the underneath play...if Robert Griffin releases a 55 to 60 yard throw to the perimeter, then Wright has zero trouble running underneath that ball and catching it probably for a touchdown. At the spot I've got it frozen, Wright has 15 yards of vertical space between he and Griffin, and outside shoulder ball placement would have required no more than 45 to 50 feet of horizontal clearance, and so a 60 yard throw at the average speeds most common in franchise quarterbacks would have taken about 3.0 seconds which is 3.5 seconds if you account for release time, which would have required Wright to clear about 40 to 45 yards in 3.5 seconds which is plenty of time given that he's already at a running start.

Basically, that's a long and scientifically showable way of saying that the design of the play and the look Robert Griffin got was just right to have executed the moving pocket and released a deep ball to Wright for a touchdown. What we see instead though is hesitation from Grififn.

Why the hesitation? Because he doesn't SEE it. If you have it pausded at 15 seconds right when he's at the leftmost side of the "X", you can draw a line straight from Robert Griffin to Kendall Wright, and that line would touch two offensive linemen and two defensive linemen that moved out with Robert in the moving pocket. His hesitation here stems from the simple fact that he can't see over them, and so he doesn't trust the throw. Another example of bad vision from the pocket, only this team it was even a moving pocket situation designed to get him some better vision.

Then you have this video which is meant to show "Field Vision". There are two plays on the video.

[video=youtube;2JNWGF0Z7Ak]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JNWGF0Z7Ak[/video]

The first play does not show "Field Vision" after the snap. It shows the quality of his pre-snap reads, and his willingness to use his eyes to disguise his intentions. However, he throws this ball pretty much blind, based on what he saw in the coverage spacing prior to the snap. He looks left and then turns right and fires the ball. Could he have pulled the ball down if he saw coverage he didn't like on the right side? Maybe. But we don't know because it didn't happen. Given the other troubles I keep seeing in his ability to see the field from the pocket, I have my doubts. This could have been an interception much like the one Chad Henne threw in the second half of the 2009 Chargers game when Eric Weddle was playing the weak side and cheated downward to Davone Bess' hitch route from the slot, while Henne was busy looking to the right to try and disguise his intentions on the play. Henne flipped back over to the left and fired the football blind, trusting that Bess would be open, but Weddle had cheated based on his film study, and snagged the easy pick.

The second play of this video shows vision, but it's vision outside the pocket where I don't think I would make a case he has any problems. It is indeed a run/pass option as the author says. The failure was not really in the three defenders that gave Griffin chase trying to make sure he didn't run it in for the score, but rather the corner in man coverage that simply can't stay plastered to Terrance Williams. But if you look at the play, those were Robert's only two options because of the run-pass option play design. Either he runs it or he throws it to Williams. In the NFL you're going to run into more corners that can stay plastered to the receiver in man coverage like that, and so Griffin would be left in that situation either throwing the ball away or taking his chances against the three defensive players that were bearing down on him...which would get him tackled and potentially hurt.

The final one is one that is supposed to show pocket presence.

[video=youtube;gzHlgIRKKfI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzHlgIRKKfI[/video]

This is a video I have actually addressed before, because it's a prime example of some of the SHOTS that I see Griffin taking every game...that he won't survive in the NFL. This is 3rd & 22 so I'm not going to blame Robert for not converting this down. But I do blame him for taking the shot he took. It's not toughness, to me. It's stupidity. You count pre-snap and he's got 6 guys crowding the line showing blitz. Yeah, he has 6 guys to block them, but that's not a good situation. Those aren't good numbers. Someone's going to break free. He has to be more decisive with this ball. This particular video of the play is a little more cut off than the one I remember talking about before. But he's got a slot receiver running a stick route against plenty of space from the safety. He's floating to the inside. You lead him to the inside so that he's forced to run through the catch, and there would be a lot of space for him to run over the middle and try and make SOMETHING happen. But if you look at the vertical cam view that ball would have had to go right into an area where Robert doesn't have good vision because of his height.

So instead Robert takes his sweet @ss time, looks right, looks left, comes back to the right and throws the ball to a guy on a 5 route that was not going to get the 1st down anyway. It's no wonder he got lit up after he threw the ball.

It's just an example of a different way of thinking. Most people see that play and the first thought that pops into their head is "Awesome toughness!". I see that play and the first thing that pops into my head is "You let yourself get lit up for no good reason".

I'm not saying I think of it the right way and others thing of it the wrong way. There's usually at least two ways to see every play. But it just shows you, when I talk about significant issues that Robert Griffin has...this is what I'm looking at. This is why I'm seeing it different from most others.

 

What is he? About the same build as Jeff Garcia?
His name just seems to pop in my head watching him move around and throw.

 

Not all. A guy like Marino would probably work in any system. Bill Walsh even said as much about Marino. The thing that generally matters is that the QB and the system fit together. Failing to understand that is why you think a guy like Orton is worth trading a second for and paying a huge contract to.

As for Fisher and Sparano, they are both consistent, grinder coaches whole had success when they got good QB play.

 

woohoo!!. thank you ck

 

I think those questions about RGIII are legitimate, (although I don't agree that last video demonstrates it).

 

Heh, so they just snap the ball and run around?

Point being, every Qb is in a system, thusly, by the "system Qb" logic, every Qb is a "system Qb"

As for Orton, who knows if would have been worth it?

I still like his game.

 

So you think it's appropriate to take your time looking right, looking left, then looking back right and hitting the 5 route when you know you've got 6 men rushing you?

I just can't see that being right. Given the nature of the blitz, to me the correct read was the right side slot receiver running a stick route. The safety had to back up and give him plenty of room because of the number of defenders they were sending in to rush. Lead that hot receiver to the inside to get him running through the catch and at least you've got a shot. Making the decision Robert made got him killed, AND didn't have a prayer of converting the 3rd & 22.

I'd have even preferred he began scrambling and trying to break contain right away rather than what he did. Situational football.

 

yeah looks like RG3 has some big issues.

damn.

any chance Indy will trade the pick? ;/

 

Thing is, EVERY Qb coming into the NFL has issues, even the baptized "greatest Qb prospect in the history of the world" Andrew Luck has issues.

The difference is, how effectively can they learn to fix them, and will they put in the work to fix them.

 

I agree. Ultimately what I think it comes down to is, do you think Robert Griffin is seeing the field from the pocket. If you don't, then you steer toward someone else. If you do think he's seeing the field from the pocket, and you think my analysis of instances where he SEEMS like he's not seeing the field is off base...then I think you draft him and don't worry about the other stuff.

Most of the other stuff in terms of mechanics, etc...can be worked on, especially with his intangibles. He's got enough weapons at his disposal in terms of accuracy and mobility that he can make up for shoddy foot and throwing mechanics, which will also get a little better as he matures due to his work ethic.

But if you're not buying that he's seeing the field, and you think Art Briles' high school offense along with those track stars at the receiver position made it possible for him to produce like this even without seeing the field from the pocket...then you're at a buyer beware.

 

but we don't have any structure in place to help develop a QB..... we are a dinosaur organization in that department.

 

Which is one of my points about "draft a qb with a first rd pick!!"

Stuff, our OL has seen 2 Qb's knocked out of games each of the last 3 yrs, how long is a Rook going to last when facing such an onslaught?

You'd want to put him into situations to succeed, not fail, let's make other moves as well to maximize a young Qb's chances to suceed and develop.

TBH, Daboll has impressed me this yr, as in a lot.

Qb play has not really been our issue this yr imo and he did get some improvement out of Chad Henne.

 

Well, I would like RG3 in Miami, as I think we will not have to give up picks to draft him and I see upside in his game, easily attained upside.

Do agree with you on pocket presence and height issues, the pocket presence is a huge issue as like a Rook in MLB having to learn to hit curveballs, this is a complete unknown and if that skill does not develop, the prospect, Qb or Hitter, will fail, but it is also the quality that is the most difficult to project attaining, or failing to attain, they just have to play to see if they can develop

 

I'm not somebody who goes around accusing QBs of being "system QBs", but I do recognize that the QB and the system have to fit together. Those are not the same thing. And there are some QBs who are so good that they will succeed regardless of the system so it is not accurate to say that all QBs are system QBs.

And Orton's game is okay in the right system. Here in Miami he would have been no better than Henne was. They would have both been QBs not good enough to overcome being in the wrong system.

 

I think that if I saw the CB on the outside receiver bailing deep and knew that my WR was doing a comeback that I might feel I had enough to wait for that even against 6 rushers. Needing that much yardage, I don't see that as an unreasonable decision as it might give me the best chance for the WR to break one tackle and get to the first. Now in general I agree that RGIII too often doesn't seem to see the field and/or hesitates on pulling the trigger. It's difficult to tell if he's just being careful or if he doesn't see it. I just didn't think that video was an example of that. I think he could have seen it just fine and still made a reasonable decision to go for it.