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What hasn't this franchise tried since Marino / Shula? Big Hint - it invovles the QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MonstBlitz, Jan 18, 2012.

  1. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    This franchise has tried just about everything since the departure of Don Shula and then Dan Marino to be successful. The list includes:

    Big name former coach - Jimmy Johnson
    Big name college coach - Nick Saban
    Big time coordinator - Cam Cameron
    Hire a Football Guru to run things - Bill Parcells
    Focus on the running game / offensive line - Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Jake Long, Mike Pouncey
    Focus on defense - J.T. Zach Thomas, Madison, Surtain, the entire 2010 draft
    Free agent QBs - Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese, Trent Green, Matt Moore
    Trade for QB - A.J. Feely, Daunte Culpepper
    Other big name free agents/ trades: Joey Porter, Brandon Marshall
    Draft QBs - John Beck, Chad Henne, Pat White

    I could go on and on. Huizenga before him and now Stephen Ross are trying to put a winning product on the field. And they've tried just about everything. What are the things they haven't tried? I can think of one big one - Make the QB position a priority by drafting a quarterback in the first round.

    We can argue all day about the opportunities that have been missed, blown, etc. but the mistake this franchise continues to make year after year after year is to not make the position the priority it deserves to be. The biggest missing piece since Dan Marino has always been QB, and not once have we spent a first round pick on the position. Does that seem strange to any of you? Every year as fans we conjure up reasons why it's not a good idea - too risky, not a good draft class, no QBs worth a first round pick at our draft spot, next year's class is better, we have other needs, etc. As fans we tell ourselves it's ok because of the busts we've seen at the position. Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf to name the biggest. Not worth the risk. Even though we've seen that risk pay off for so many other teams not named the Dolphins.

    Still in the dozen + years since Marino and Shula, not one first round pick on the QB position. The Colts still have Manning on the roster and they're going to spend their pick on Andrew Luck. Meanwhile we've seen other teams have tremendous success with their QBs taken in the first round. Steelers, Giants, Packers, Colts, Lions, and to a lesser extent Ravens, and Falcons (Vick / Ryan). And for those teams having success that didn't draft a QB in the first round, we see how critical the QB is to their success: Patriots, Saints, Bears (traded first round picks), etc. And 4 of the past 5 superbowl winning QBs were quarterbacked by QBs drafted in the 1st round.

    What does this mean for this year's draft? Well, we hear the same excuses we've heard in the past 12 years. The top QBs will be gone. The draft class isn't any good now that Barkely isn't coming out. It would be a reach to take any QBs left at our spot. Next year's class will be better (not including Luck).

    What should Ireland do, in my humble opinion? If he feels RGIII is a franchise QB he should do what it takes to trade up. If the price is OUTLANDISH, he needs to identify the QB that might be perceived to be a reach, but still have definite first round talent and draft him. Whether that means "reaching" at 8 or 9, or trading down and taking him then. Who might this QB be? I don't watch enough college ball to wager a guess. I'll let the draft gurus field that.

    It's time to make the position a priority. So while we all sit here and wait for word on head coach, let's hope that this is the year Ireland and company get the memo on how valuable the QB position is and let's hope we finally get our guy in the first round. We've tried just about everything else.
     
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  2. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Oh brother, why do some fans think simply spending the 1st round pick on a QB resolves the search for a franchise QB?
     
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  3. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Bravo. While I don't agree with everything in that post, that is the kind of stuff these boards are about. Thank you.
     
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  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Some threads just should not be opened.
     
  5. khend_98

    khend_98 New Member

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    Good breakdown - I tend to agree (unless we are giving up a kings ransom and mortgaging the next 5 years to get to a position to draft RG3).
     
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  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    For me, its not about a 1st rd pick, its about prioritizing the QB as number one. I don't want the FO trying to get cute anymore by trying to make a stellar deal in the draft. Deals are relative. I want QB's every year till we find the franchise. I don't care if it s in the first couple of rounds or free agency. I don't care if its a reach. Just get us the QB we need.
     
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  7. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Then don't bother responding. Seriously, is that necessary? Whether you agree or not, you can see I put some time into the thread. If you don't like it, don't respond or add something to the discussion.
     
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  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Some things are best responded to in a minimalist manner to avoid TOS violations.

    Screaming, ad nauseum, about a first rd pick Qb, of course presumes that there is one there worth taking, the same crap happened concerning Brady Quinn, those who were screaming about it have went silent about Quinn, but kept up the same old, same old, never mind no Rookie Qb can carry a team, they need other pieces, nevermind that we took a shot on developing our first young Qb in Henne, and it failed.

    Back to ones regularly scheduled stuff.
     
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  9. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Thank you. Good to see we don't disagree on everything... :shifty:

    Anyway, it's not just about drafting a QB in the first round. Although I do think it's necessary to get a franchise caliber player.

    IF a player could be nabbed in the 2nd, 3rd, or hell even an UDFA that could be a franchise QB, great! I'd be thrilled. Problem is, every other GM in the league knows the value of the QB. And plenty of teams need one. So, if you wait till the later rounds odds are the QBs that have the best chances to be successful in this league are already gone. So I'm not saying we should draft a QB in the first just to draft a QB in the first. I'm just saying that's probably where we need to draft a QB to have the best odds of landing someone who can be successful in this league.
     
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  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    On the flipside, every first round QB has some trade value, whether they're good or not.

    Again, first round or not is irrelevant, QB has not been a priority with this franchise in quite awhile.
     
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  11. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Or, you know, you could just keep your snarky comments to yourself.

    I wasn't screaming. It's a rational debate. Not 1 first round pick on QB since Marino bears discussion whether you agree or not.
     
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  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    "Good Luck"
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That's not so though Fin D, we just spent 3 seasons on Chad Henne, the Parcells Qb, and it failed, this idea we have not tried to develop a young, high pick, Qb is not what happened.

    They did try, it failed, where the gentleman falls down is pretending to himself that there is some magic behind drafting a Qb with a #1 pick, it's desperate but you have to appreciate such a mental holdout.
     
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  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No we drafted Henne and tried an experiment in White and that's it. That isn't making the QB a priority pads.
     
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  15. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    yeah, good luck to you too. Sorry my one thread a week can't be as good as the dozens you post weekly. I'll try to do better.

    /sarcasm.

    Let me know when you're ready to post your next "rha rha" thread so I can make sure and piss all over it like you've done here.
     
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  16. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Agreed. It's a pretty silly strategy, imo.

    I'd love to see every QB drafted in the 1st since Marino retired and then see the percentage of those taken that actually wound up being "franchise QBs." lol If it was only that simple.
     
  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I don't think anyone is saying its simple or guaranteed. If we take more shots on higher QB's we might have ended up with Rodgers or been able to trade away busts like Quinn.

    But I also don't think anyone can really say QB has been a priority by any FO in this franchise since Marino.
     
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  18. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I don't have the luxury of calculating the percentage at work. But I can guarantee you it's higher than the percentage of 2nd round QBs. Or any other round.

    And you provide a perfect example of "it's risky so we shouldn't do it." Reward never comes without risk. This applies to anything in life.
     
  19. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Absolutely no guarantee you can trade away a bust QB and get anything of value for him.

    No, you can't. Without the actual stats you can't guarantee anything more than your opinion and what you think the percentage might be.
     
  20. steveincolorado

    steveincolorado Spook, Storme & Pebbles

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    So what did Oakland get in return for J. Russell?
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sam Bradford, Rams (1st overall, 2010)
    Matt Stafford, Lions (1st overall, 2009)
    Mark Sanchez, Jets (5th overall, 2009)
    Josh Freeman, Bucs (17th overall, 2009)
    Matt Ryan, Falcons (3rd overall, 2008)
    Joe Flacco, Ravens (18th overall, 2008)
    Vince Young, Titans (3rd overall, 2006)
    Jay Cutler, Bears (11th overall, 2006)
    Alex Smith, 49ers (1st overall, 2005)
    Aaron Rodgers, Packers (24th overall, 2005)
    Jason Campbell, Raiders (25th overall, 2005)
    Eli Manning, Giants (1st overall, 2004)
    Philip Rivers, Chargers (4th overall, 2004)
    Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (11th overall, 2004)
    Carson Palmer, Bengals (1st overall, 2003)
    Michael Vick, Eagles (1st overall, 2001)

    Thats basically half the starting QB's at the beginning of the season, and all since Marino retired.
     
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  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The only example doesn't prove your point. Besides, with the rookie cap, its even less of a risk to take QB's high.
     
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  23. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I can guarantee it because I know others have done the work before me. A piece from Peter King's Monday Morning QB back in October -

    3 out of 26. Now by all means, if you want to do the legwork to calculate the same ratio for first round QBs, be my guest. Spoiler: It will be a much better rate.
     
  24. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Leinart, Vince Young, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, etc. etc.
     
  25. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    It's a "silly strategy" to invest a first round pick - the PREMIUM DRAFT TALENT - into your most important position on the field? Please tell me I am reading that incorrectly.

    If your not going to invest in your most important spot, then why bother at all?
     
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  26. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    I thought we were talking about QBs that were actually good.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    There's no good QB's on that list? None of then you'd like to be on our team?
     
  28. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    You're reading it fine, just not comprehending the point.

    Picking a QB in the 1st doesn't mean that that QB is a premium talent or worth the pick/investment, was the point.
     
  29. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    John Beck, Chad Henne, Pat White...

    And those are just the 2nd rounders the Dolphins have spent on QB. There are QB busts in every round. The bust ratio in the first round is much less.

    Are you really suggesting it's foolish to try because a QB might be a bust?
     
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  30. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    lol Of course, but you're also leaving out how many 1st round busts from that list?

    Quite a few.
     
  31. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    So freaking what? There are busts at every position in every round.
     
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  32. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Again, show me a stat that says it's much less risky or it's not a fact.

    And no, I'm saying the strategy of just keep drafting QBs in the 1st regardless is foolish.
     
  33. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    lol No ****.
     
  34. DrAstroZoom

    DrAstroZoom Canary in a Coal Mine Luxury Box

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    Which would be the smartest "overspend": giving up a boatload of picks to grab RG3, or staying put and drafting Tannehill/Weeden in Rd 1?
     
  35. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    http://www.vincentvalour.com/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-success-rate-by-each-round/html

    Just one example of a guy who has already done the work using starting QBs as a barometer of success.
     
  36. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're right that it's not quite that simple. But the vast majority of good QBs come from early in the draft. So the data says that the higher you take a qb the more likely it is he will be a good player. Part of that is likely due to the fact that guys drafted later don't get as much playing time and therefore don't get the chance to become good. But for the most part I think there is a strong causal link between draft position and the chances you will be a good qb. So I think a more accurate thing for people to say is that spending a first round pick on a qb makes it a lot more likely that we have resolved the search for a good qb.
     
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  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Didn't they also sign Pennington?
     
  38. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    A great question. One I'd like to see the Gurus tackle.
     
  39. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    I say we do this. I understand the risk ( age, etc.) but its worth the risk. Why the hell not?
     
  40. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    And 3 have won a superbowl.
     

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