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1st round QBs of the past 14 years by the numbers.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Trowa, Feb 10, 2012.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Actually I originally said 50% for the overall philosophy. I said 55% as an example.

    With the rookie cap, I don't think there's a gap that is too much. The gap, for me, is irrelevant. The only percentage that matters is what chance the available QB's have at being a franchise QB. If its 50% or better I take the QB over any other player.
     
  2. Clipse

    Clipse mediocrity sucks

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    Show us the hit rates for all the other rounds while you're at it... People will make any excuse for not having a franchise QB and remaining in mediocrity.
     
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  3. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Exactly. People can make excuses all they want, the bottom line is we don't, and have not had, a franchise QB.

    Still baffling to me how anyone can argue that drafting a QB in the first round doesn't give you the best odds, despite the multiple stats and evidence to support it.

    But I guess people cope with their teaming sucking in different ways. I prefer to drink, myself.
     
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  4. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't put much stock in hit rates just b/c some of those picks had no business being first round picks. When I say a QB is worth a first round pick, it generally means that I may feel he could potentially be an elite QB, but also that his bust risk isn't too high for my tolerance. For example, with Alex Smith I specifically said that you could win with him in the right system, but probably not an elite QB. We needed a QB badly then, so IMO it was worth spending a first on him. As I look through that list, I see 28 guys I evaluated, not including the too early to tell list. There were some guys I never watched play, like Ryan Leaf, so I don't know what I would have said on them. There were others like Couch and Harrington that were high picks, but I said did not belong in the first round. By my count, I was correct on my evaluations on 22 of those 28. That corresponds to a 79% hit rate. I have always contended that with a sound and conservative methodology you can find at least a good QB in the first round approximately 80% of the time. But obviously there isn't one available in the first round of every draft. And some drafts are just loaded with talent. In the last great QB draft, I was high on Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers and Big Ben and was adamant that Losman did not belong in the first round. In that draft my hit % was 100% b/c the talent was obvious. I see this QB draft as one of those. IMO Luck, RG3, Tannehill and Weedon are worth first round picks. I see the highest bust potential in RG3, but still think his odds are good enough to take a risk on. My guess is that if you take any of those guys the odds are high enough that you'll get at least a good QB.
     
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  5. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    Saying id take 50% is the same as taking some one who is as likely to fail as to succeed. I can't really say what gridironking said is inaccurate in that case.
     
  6. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Well you kind of lost me when you called Michael Vick a bust. Really? After what he did in 2010? And he didn't have a terrible 2011 discounting injury. And when you go all the way back to 1998, you're discounting the fact that since 2005 the transition from college to NFL has become easier for quarterbacks. The rules have changed. Passing is easier. That's why I tend to look no further back than 2005 in respect to the QB position. Your logic is adding in 7 years where the passing game was astoundingly different from what we see today.

    I appreciate the work you put into this. But at the heart of it, it's really just more "Not every 1st round QB succeeds, so we might as well not even try." Which seems to be celebrated logic around these parts. Which makes me wonder how so many of you have such problems with the mediocrity we find ourselves mired in when you're ok with us not making the QB position the priority it needs to be.
     
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  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    delete
     
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  8. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Couch was OUTSTANDINGbin college... Went to the browns who had just come into the league...was sacked only less then Carr..I posted all this on the first page, we haven't done it, us not doing it hasn't worked, let's try it
     
  9. Jcouch1021

    Jcouch1021 New Member

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    Finascious d,
    i agree drafting BPA is pprobably one of the best drafting techniques, Baltimore, and Pittsburg both pretty much follow that. The only problem drafting bpa is when you just have too much of the position without letting those players grow. For instance

    Wy to let Jerry start at RT???? He filled in fine last year... Draft a guard later to replace Carey..
    why draft more d line??? ( if we stay in 3-4) we can reach on them later?
    We I would say with a solid QB would have a pretty good receiving core.

    What happens if our bpa is Trent Richardson? Would you give up on the running back we traded up for last year? Trent would be a bigger non injury prone Reggie bush
     
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Did he do that for the Falcons?

    Of course he is a bust.
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I hated Couch as a prospect. He lacked pocket awareness and couldn't make enough plays when things broke down. I see him as the classic example of a QB who put up numbers in a system but was not a great NFL prospect.
     
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  12. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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    Sorry but you read that table incorrectly: what it shows that of the 33 QBs on a team with a postseason win:

    18 were 1st round picks
    4 were 2nd round picks
    1 4th round pick
    2 5th round picks
    2 6th round picks
    1 8th
    1 9th
    4 undrafted.

    so the correct conclusion based on the data, is that a first round qb is more likely to win a playoff game than all the other draft picks and free agents combined.
     
  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    For the Falcons? I guess, given how it ended up, you can make that case. I thought the statement was made on his entire career.
     
  14. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Couch was outstanding in college. So was Andre Ware, Colt Brennan and Zac Robinson among others.

    Im surprised this was not on Bill Parcells list of things he looks for in a QB: QB's that excel in collegiate video game offenses do not necessarily translate in to good NFL QB's.
     
  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok, sorry about my previous post, I realized there were issues with the chart. I think I fixed them now.

    This is my philosophy NOW that there's a rookie cap:

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    If it is for his entire career I would agree that he isn't a bust. However I do not think teams draft players to become good players on other teams.
     
  17. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Actually.....

    What I think would make a good discussion on this topic...

    Is what went wrong from a scouting process in these teams taking bad QB's in the first round. We have enough guys in here who are solid talent evaluators.....so this should be interesting. For example....JP Losman. What did he look like in college? Where did the scouts for the Bills go wrong on his talent evaluation. Is it possible that, some guys just look like their stars are aligned for success...and then for what ever reason....they feel apart in the NFL? Or were there clear warning signs that were ignored?
     
  18. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Just when I thought I had seen it all here.....

    Are you building the flux capacitor as well?

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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  20. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO the key attributes are decision making, accuracy, ability to extend the play, pocket awareness and leadership. Now some of those over-lap of course. I would say that the most common mistake is looking at a guy like Couch and watching him perform in a timing offense. It's easy to get seduced by the stats. What you have to look for is what does the guy do when things break down? In the NFL, the defenses are good. Pass rushers will beat their guys, WRs will be covered or sometimes your offensive guys just screw up. If your young QB can't adjust, process things fast enough or extend the play and make the right decision and a good throw then he's probably going to fail. Part of that also includes anticipation. Some guys have that ability to sense where the opening will be. I include that anticipation in decision making. Some call it "football IQ". Many of these young QBs just come from great teams where they have the physical advantage on most plays. You can't just look at their stats and make an evaluation. Once you get past the basics (size, velocity, etc.), that's when the real evaluation begins. Truth is there are a ton of guys like Losman who have all the physical traits you could want. Personally, I look for situation where the play breaks down to see how the QB reacted then. That part is still subjective, of course. CK and I looked at the same plays for Mallett and came to opposite conclusions. He saw a guy with first round grade who adjusted well. I saw a guy with a late second or third round grade who couldn't adjust/move fast enough when he was surprised. I have found that once you get past the stats and the physical traits, that reaction when things break down is key. If I don't see that ability to adjust and make plays when things break down, then they're simply not on my first round list. As I've tracked my results over the years, that has resulted in about an 80% hit rate.

    Also in my Mallet evaluation I dropped him to the third round b/c I had questions about his leadership. That's one that's hard to make a determination on if you're not interviewing him, his team mates and his coaches. You just have to make a guess from all the good/bad stuff you hear about a prospect. You also have to try to remain objective. I see a strong tendency for people to blow up or ignore the good/bad stuff based mostly on whether they like the prospect instead of on the content of the info.
     
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  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Out of curiousity, what did you think about Jake Locker? Looking at your key attributes I thought he was spotty in decision making had HORRIBLE accuracy, however was amazing at having the ability to extend the play, pocket awareness and leadership.
     
  22. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Whole lot of work put into a post to tell us what is already known.

    No draft pick is a guarantee of success.
    There is risk with every one of them.
    Chances of success are higher however with higher rated prospects.
    Next time include the success rates of all QB's drafted in lower rounds then you'll get correct perspective. This has been done in this very forum if I'm not mistaken and the success rate dropped signicantly by round.

    Bottom line is you have to take chances to find a great QB.
    This organization hadn't even been trying for a long time and thats the very reason for where we are today.
     
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  23. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I did not have him as first round guy. He was good at the things you mentioned, but he didn't make the right decisions or make the accurate throw often enough for my tastes. I haven't watched him play in the NFL, other than a couple of highlights, but people have said he was playing well. He may well end up being part of my 20% that I would have missed on. But I tend to be conservative in my evaluations so when I miss its more likely to be on a guy I didn't draft than on one I did.
     
  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    We will see. So far he has been good in pick up duty. Still not starting his first year he can work on his accuracy and decision making.

    I might be alone, but I think anything that is a skill can be improved with practice.
     
  25. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I think that ability to adapt when things break down is hard to replicate in practice. Players can learn the offense better, but you can't replicate the speed and intensity in a practice. When you face the better teams, generally in the playoffs, they will find a way to confuse your QB. If he lacks that skill, you'll probably end up falling short of the ring regardless of how much he practices. Accuracy is also another skill that seems to have an upper limit. That's why I look for those things in my prospects. I want them to have them already.
     
  26. Trowa

    Trowa A world of pain

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    I'm really not sure why I even bother. No matter what I say, no matter how many disclaimers I put in my post to prevent accusatory and ignorant posts people are going to read what they want to read and reply in kind. Those that think I'm saying don't ever draft a QB in the 1st round no matter what, you obviously didn't read anything I wrote. And to all of you, you can call me names and tell me it's a terrible write up when you contribute nothing to the forums, you can discredit my entire premise you didn't take the time to understand because you don't agree with my assessment of Vick, you can put words in my mouth I never said to try to make me look stupid and prove your point because you can't otherwise, and hell you can put me on a side of the argument that I'm not on and argue with me over points I clearly stated I'm not arguing so you can look down your nose at me. But I just want to point out that these are the reasons we can't have decent discussions on this site that don't .

    To those that replied with constructive points, even if you don't agree with me, I thank you for adding to the conversation. I hope to get the chance to reply to all the posts individually because several of you make great points. However, right now it's back to putting in job applications so I can pay my bills :lol:
     
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  27. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    I think the OPs point is exactly that though. Had we tried, we may not have Jake Long or Vontae Davis on this team and we would still be sitting there with a bust of a QB. The point is that we have clamored for a 1st round QB b/c of the success that some have had, but in our draft position, there has not been any that have panned out to date (Matt Ryan may end up being the exception but the jury is definitely still out).
     
  28. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Again, because the franchise has not believed in any of the QBs that were picked when they were picking and with the potential exception of Matt Ryan, they made the right choice. It almost seemed as though teams last year were using the "pick a QB in the 1st regardless of what you believe" mantra. Ponder and Locker especially were projected for at the earliest a late 1st. I know Locker was a potential 1st pick overall from the year before but his draft stock dropped dramatically leading up to the draft last year. Jury is still out on those guys, but none of them (sans Newton) turned in a season where you can say "OK, I'm comfortable with this guy leading my franchise for the next 10 years".
     
  29. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Who's perception is this? Mel Kiper? Mike Mayock? or the Miami Dolphins Front Office. You truly have no idea what the FO is doing in analyzing players. Maybe, justg maybe, they did a similar type analysis to what you are saying and found that the QBs available to them had only a 25% shot of being good vs. a non QB that had an 80% chance of being good. Which guy do you take if that's your analysis?

    Again, it sounds like you are saying that if the draftniks / analysts believe that a QB has a 50% chance of being good, you HAVE to take a chance on him no matter how you as an organization feel about him.
     
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  30. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    Wow, too bad you are not in the Dolphins FO. Ever applied there as a scout?
     
  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Who's perception? The fans that were being discussed.

    Yes its true, I don't really know if the current FO has felt any QB had a 50% or better chance to be franchise. It doesn't matter, though my take is only based on the new rookie cap.

    This post might help:
     
  32. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    I don't think his point was this. In today's NFL, a QB is the most important position on the field. We all get that. But if you grade a QB out to be solid vs. a cornerback that you see as being elite one day, do you take the QB? Have we seen many "solid" QBs winning the SuperBowl?

    If you see potential for eliteness in a QB, than you draft him over any other position. My point is that this FO did not see that eliteness in any of the QBs they passed up including Matt Ryan and Matty Ice has not shown he can get it done in the playoffs. He has shown he can be solid, but not elite. Therefore, if they believed he only had the potential to be solid and a surefire elite LT was there, you take the LT. It's just that simple. Now you can argue Matt Ryan still has the potential to be elite and I honestly couldn't argue against that. He definitely still has room to grow, but the point was that this FO did not see potential eliteness in any QB they passed up and you really can't argue that they were wrong.
     
  33. PhinsPhan23

    PhinsPhan23 New Member

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    I feel ya man. I understood your post b/c I read it in full. I'm assuming most people did not therefore the attacks insued.

    In the end, if a QB is there for you to draft or trade up for that you even partly believe will be elite, you do it. This FO did not made that decision and based on the QBs that were available for either trade up or at their pick, nobody can argue that they were wrong.
     
  34. caneaddict

    caneaddict Season Ticket Holder

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    I think this speaks to the larger issue. It seems like every year reasonable people sit around and identify the obvious franchise QB's and then the guys that shouldn't be 1st rounders. Yet professional highly paid GM's picking in the 5 - 25 range tend to reach for QB's that more often than not suck. We need better evaluators with balls. In all honesty with all the qyestions I have regarding Ireland, can anyone actually name a 1st round QB that he passed on that is today head and shoulders better than Moore?

    We rarely pick in the top 11 and all those "success" QB's except Rodgers were taken in the top 11. Usually after #5 (except the best draft class of the past 20 years), the 1st round QB's are trash. Rodgers BTW was projected to be a top 5 pick and slid. This year there are 2 variables that would have me lean towards drafting a QB. One, it appears this is a deep class and we draft high enough that we have a stronger shot at landing a "success" QB. Two, one of the projected "success" QB's has outside issues (age) that should see him fall significantly, probably to the early 2nd round.
     
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  35. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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    sure we can argue they were wrong it is very easy
    aaron rodgers we picked ronnie brown instead
    drew brees we picked jamal fletcher
    we could have traded up 5 picks and taken jay cutler instead of jason allen
     
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  36. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Welcome back. Some of us missed you.
     
  37. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Calling Mike Vick a bust is a hell of a reach. In fact it's down right irrational.
    Rex Grossman may be a bust by first round standards but he did QB a team to a Super Bowl.
    Jason Campbell has been a very productive QB and he may be a Dolphin if this Peyton Manning/RG3 thing falls through.
    Culpepper had a devastating knee injury and was never the same. I think that goes under the injured category.

    I see what you are trying to do here and I agree with most of it. First round picks don't always mean success. A lot of it is circumstances and opportunity.
     
  38. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    He hasn't done anything to show he is better than Matt Moore. Just like it's too soon to call Bradford a bust, it is also too soon to label him a long term answer either. Most likely he will fall into the solid yet unspectacular group, which is right where Moore is.
     
  39. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    I don't see how you can't call mike vick a bust. He got locked up. Psychology is part of the interview process for a reason, as are injuries, etc.
     
  40. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    How? First round picks are chosen to be stars on the team that drafted them.
     

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