Denver Post Report: Dolphins in contract talks to pay Alex Smith $8 million annually.

I asked a hypothetical question regarding Smith being able to beat NO again if we meet them in the Super Bowl, and you did everything BUT answer it.

Now, if you'd like to speak freely about Smith, please refrain from quoting my posts to do so or using it to form a straw argument.

 

after one five hour meeting, the dolphins offer alex smith 8 mill deal. Kind of seems like someone pulled that one out of thin air. Looks like someone in Denver is trying to get SF to get out of the Manning race and get SF to commit salary cap to Smith in panic.

 

Some of the sports reporters out here are *******s....

 

Toddphins, at this point in their careers, I don't think that #1 pick means anything. Jamarcus Russel, Joey Harrington, David Carr. The list goes on. Alex is clearly better than them, and of course he's had a ton of OC's, but so has Jason Cambpell and they have quite similar numbers. Alex Smith is a "meh" quarterback and if we give him $8 oi!

 

Any word on how much we offered Flynn?

 

Very true, but I believe his 6 years of 6 different OCs, a terrible surrounding cast, piss poor protection, and a bad team had a drastic affect on his performance, psyche, and development (and I think Harbaugh mentioned something of this sort)... so IMO in essence Smith is more like a 3rd year QB with some of that untapped 1st round pick upside still left because those 6 years with 6 different OCs and Singletary probably resulted in less development than 1 or 2 years with Harbaugh, and he's not the lazy bum that Russell is.

I don't know, personally I feel the guy's been battle tested, keeps on kicking, and finally has some confidence in himself combined with a better grasp of the game. Campbell also didn't have to play for a controlling, defensive-minded, ex linebacker HC who would've likely represented the death of any QB under him.

 

Alex Smith isn't worth 8 million dollars. The Dolphins are better off just staying with Matt Moore.

 

I wouldn't mind the 3/24 million rumored deal he was going to sign in SF.

 

To those saying that they prefer Matt Moore are wrong IMO. Smith fits this system well, he has experience with the WCO, and as a poster mentioned earlier about his key attribute being the bootleg. Matt Moore IMO seemed to struggle a bit learning our offense last year in the beginning of his starts, and when he got it together yes we did get wins but against who? Redskins, Chiefs, Raiders, Bills 2x, and the Jest. We lost against Patriots, Cowboys and Eagles. That in no way shows a future playoff team. I say pay Smith those 8 mil although I really do not see Manning going to the 49ers regardless of the fact that it would be the best option

 

I wouldn't mind if we could sign Smith to a one year deal on the cheap end. He pans out well we re-sign him, if not cut our losses. I just don't feel he is worth 8 million a year. He's got some potential but at 8 a year we need more than that

 

If we take step back and look at Smith's career and revolving door of coaches:

2005-2008, the Mike Nolan years:
Smith's first 4 seasons should've been filled with proper development and learning the NFL game under one quality HC, one offensive scheme & OC, and one quality QB coach. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. They were spent under a Defensive Coordinator as a HC who wasn't very successful as such. He also had the pressure of being a 21 year old #1 pick and the face of a franchise looming over his shoulder when he should've instead been weened along early on.

In years 1 and 2 there was the change from a Mike McCarthy offense in 05 to Norv Turner's in 06 which is likely overwhelming to a 2nd year QB, especially one coming from an Urban Meyer led Utah offense. Regarding learning, sometimes less means more, and it's often the case to see a player's development delayed when too much is thrown at them too soon.

In year 3, Niners' new terrible OC, Jim Hostetler, ran that offense into the ground, destroyed their run game, lost all trust from the players, and was subsequently fired. He was also Alex's QB coach his first 2 years and has not been one since if that says anything about his ability. It doesn't surprise me one bit that Smith had a bad 3rd year and regressed under Hostetler. Without a ground game, he was beaten up all season, spent 9 games on IR, and played 3 games with a shoulder injury that later required surgery.

In year 4, Mike Martz became the new OC and ran a completely different offense than Smith's previous 3 and is one that routinely sees his QB battered. Alex spends the entire season on IR thanks to complications to his prior shoulder surgery. Nolan is fired mid season and Singletary takes over.

So that's 2 and a half years of having little opportunity to develop (I say two and a half b/c one and a half was spent on IR).


2009-2010, the Singletary years:
After three and a half years of one unsuccessful defensive coordinator turned HC, Smith gets two and a half more with Singletary.
Martz was fired and replaced with Jim Raye in 09.
After missing the entire 2008 season, 2009 saw Alex initially not taking first team offense reps until replacing Shaun Hill as the starter in week 8.
After half a season as the starter with Raye in 2009, Smith then gets a new OC 6 games into 2010 as Raye was fired and replaced by QB coach Mike Johnson who once again changed up the offense. This was also Johnson's only stint as an NFL OC.
After everything Smith had been through up until now, it doesn't surprise me that he was in a QB battle with Troy Smith in 2010 after being subjected to another injury.

Singletary was appropriately canned and subsequently scapegoated his QB for his failure. Harbaugh takes over in 2011 and goes 13-3 with the same QB and much of the same roster. Smith goes on to show that he can succeed with a decent head coach, one who tries to fit the offense to his QB rather than another year of trying to fit Smith to the offense.

 

Not that it counts for all too much at all if anything, but Smith is a VERY smart quarterback. He scored a 40 on the NFL Wonderlic test. In other words while on the field it may not mean much, it means that off the field he is intelligent and has the capacity to learn. This obviously means nothing if you don't have natural instincts or the talent to succeed. To me it just means that he has the ability to learn and command an offense if he is given more than one season to play in it.

He also ran a 4.71 in his 40 yard dash. Not blazing, but in other words he certainly has the mobility to get outside the pocket on bootlegs. By comparison Tim Tebow* ran a 4.72 in his forty. Obviously Smith is not the runner Tebow is but he does have good speed none the less.

Coming out of the draft Smith needed to sit on the bench at least for a season or two but was never afforded that luxury. Imagine the following scenario.

You have never run an NFL style offense and in college you played against pretty poor competition. You have all the physical tools to succeed but your mechanics, while good, could use some work just like any rookie. Now imagine trying to learn how to run an offense, maintain your mechanics and lead a football team at the age of 21. Not to mention you have a terrible offensive line and no help at receiver. Try maintaining your mechanics as the play breaks down around you play after play after play.

Now in your second season you can't even apply what you learned in your first. You have a new OC and need to learn a new system. You are 22 years old now, your team is still terrible around you and you have absolutely no continuity from season one to season two. Not to mention Norv Turner runs the Coryell offense which goes COMPLETELY AGAINST everything you do well. It is a vertical based offense that attacks down the field. That was the one knock on you coming out of college. Your deep game needed work. Your best strengths were the short to intermediate game, using your accuracy to allow your receivers yards after the catch. You are now a square peg trying to fit into a round hole.

Now in your third season you are changing offensive systems again. You are a little more mature and starting to grasp what it means to be an NFL player at this point. There is still no continuity but you are a bit more mature and that counts for something. Except your OC is so bad he never holds a job after this season (thanks for this info ToddPhins I really didn't know) and you are injured a good portion of the year.

In your fourth season here is another offensive system. Again one that demands you move the ball down the field with vertical routes. This is a rehash of season number two. Deja Vu anyone?

The next two years ToddPhins has pretty much covered 100%

In my opinion Smith actually fits our system much better than even what the 49'ers did with him.


Oh and the * next to Tim Tebow just signifies that I hate him as a QB and think he sucks. However he is mobile so a good comparison.



You know I don't think I've ever spent this much time or energy defending a player that probably won't even end up on our team.

 

I'm good with A. Smith, he has experience and with Philbin as a coach, he will turn into a much better QB than he is now. We need to pull a Nike and "Just Do It!".

 

You can win with Alex Smith. However, even with the myriad of offensive coaches and systems, the deart of talent at WR, he still has a pretty clear ceiling.

San Francisco had one of the better defenses, and has for a few years now, in years. Alex Smith did show the capability of winning a few games a la NFC Divisional Game vs. New Orleans. However, he's show you need to have a lot of other great parts around him to win. Plus, there is a reason that even after his best season, they're willing to risk going after Peyton Manning who might not even hold up over the course of a season.

My rhetorical question is this. Is their a franchise QB available to us at #8? If yes, whether that is Tannehill or Weeden, then you draft that player and pass on Smith. To me, Alex Smith, although solid in his own right isn't that guy.

 

Bye bye. Peyton signing with Broncos apparently. SF will get him back, apparently the Dolphins were just a backup option for Smith. We'll see if that is true...I expect it is.

 

I agree with you. Smith was just weighing his options in case Manning opted to sign with the 49er's. Now that Manning has decided to sign with Denver, Smith will certainly will returning to the 49er's and I suspect that it will be for a better offer than the 3 years for 24 million dollars he was offered when Manning was still in play for the 49er's QB position.