So if a team takes a QB in the !st it's a 50/50 shot if he pans out and almost no shot after round one?Shows how difficult it is to find a decent QB in the NFL.
That's about right although I think there are many first round reaches that skew that number. I believe a good evaluator could have that first round percentage at around 80%. It might even be higher if you coupled a good evaluator with a patient coach and owner who let that first round QB learn the offense for a year or two before throwing him in there.
Get pissed or not, after the 4th pick in the draft the success rate of QBs taken isnot very good. Discount Roethlisberger and Brady the success rate is abysmal compared to QB taken in the top 2 to 3 picks. Stats do not lye. Shake it up all you want, thats the way it is.
but you are looking at a limited sample here, the original post only goes back to 2003. not much to choose from there and kinda slanting the stats to favor your (his) point.
I agree with the premise that you need an elite QB to win. Especially when you're in the AFC. Something like the last 9 QBs to win the AFC have been Brady, Manning, or Roethlisberger. Having said that, IMO the stat itself that Hyde shares is rather flawed. His point is valid though.
I had that one but deleted it because I realized he specifically requested QBs drafted by the Fins......
What you basically find is that those non-franchise type QBs can have a good year and maybe get you a playoff win or two, but they can't make you a perennial contender. You simply have to take the chance on that potential franchise QB when the opportunity presents itself. That does not mean that you pick first round QBs when they aren't worth it. Most years you have no more than one or two that are worthy of that designation. In fact, since '83 I've only had three years that I had more than two QBs rated as worthy of first round picks (about half of those years had only one). This is one of those years and it happens to be a year where we have a high enough pick to land one. IMO it would be a colossal mistake to not seize the opportunity this year.
I love Dave's misleading stats. I love how he throws out the "98 QB's have been drafted since 2003 part"....lol Since 2003 there have been (at most) 132 playoff spots. Out of those 132 spots, half won at least one playoff game, right? So that's 66 spots. Out of those spots, how many teams have taken those spots multiple times? Hell, just between the Steelers, Colts and Patriots you're probably looking at half. lol Anyhow, Hyde's article is pretty much worthless. He should have just said, "the best teams since 2003 have won playoff games." Well, no **** Hyde.
Owner, GM, Coaching, Players... In that order. If it were just about the QB then Marino would have 12 Super Bowl Rings. P. Mannning would have a dozen or so too. If you look at the teams with the "franchise" QB's, you see teams with great coaching (maybe a little cheating, Pats/Saints) and stability. On top of that you see well rounded teams in all three phases of the game. The exception to that rule would be the Colts. When Manning was there they were very one dimensional, see Dolphins;Marino years. Do you think Brady would be the Brady we see today if Belichick hadn't of drafted him? What if Brady would have became a 7th round pick-up for the Lions? Brady would have most likely been bumped around the league as a "possible" back-up for a few years and then disappeared. Brady is Brady because the Patriots front office and coaching have been top notch. Of course Brady used that to his advantage and has played like a top 3 QB each year since.
I would say that the perennial contenders have stability in the organization, good drafting and a franchise QB. You need all three. I think you need the stability or you're never going to have good drafting b/c turnover prevents your players from developing and new coaches/systems will need different skills. You also need the franchise QB and the vast majority of the time, those are found in the first round.
I also think stability in the organization helps with the development of a franchise QB. It is rare for teams to put the time and effort it takes to develop a quarterback that is not drafted in the first round. I think the chances of Joe Montana becoming Joe Montana in today's era is not very big.
The fallacy in this logic is that there would be other guys out there who could've been as good or better than Tom Brady, but because of circumstance never got a chance. I don't believe this. At all. As discussed at length on this board, Brady is the exception, not the rule. The easy counter to your argument, of course, is Belchick's coaching tenure in Cleveland. And I completely disagree with your order. Players last? Wow. Not saying those others aren't important (I'd put coaching last, personally), but typically, ESPECIALLY in the NFL, the teams with the best talent at the most important positions win.
Agreed, but I also think it's a two-way street. I think having a Franchise QB HELPS maintain organizational stability. If Saban decides to take a chance on Brees, and his career even somewhat parallels that of his career in New Orleans, then one would have to assume that this organization looks pretty different right now. I'm sure you could say that about a lot of organizations, though.
I know it's sacrilege to say on this board, but Montana may be the best QB ever. He was fortunate enough to end up in the perfect fit for his skill set. And even though he may be the best QB ever, he is no where near the most talented. I think that if he had ended up somewhere else, he may never have gotten past the third string. That's how important the fit between the QB and the system is. There are very few like Marino, who could play well in most any system. And even as great as Marino was, he didn't have as much around him as Montana did so his teams weren't as successful.
I think some QBs are able to shape the organization to their personality. I was one of those that wanted Brees over Culpepper. One of my main reasons back then was that I felt he would end up as an extension of Saban on the field. I just thought he was a great fit. I think he may have established some stability for us.