The more talk of Tannehill, the more worried I get about this pick....

Jeff Ireland has done NOTHING to prove he is a good GM bro.

 

It's complicated but know that I have Weeden as the better quarterback between the two, although his age makes him about equivalent in value, maybe just a hair above Tannehill in total value. Therefore, I'm pretty sensitive to valuation differences between the two. In other words if hypothetically you've got to trade up for Tannehill whereas you could pick Weeden up at #42 overall (which I don't think can happen) then I can't justify taking Tannehill. I go with Weeden.

But there's RISK to be considered. In a perfect world you could just decide, ok I value Brandon Weeden at $85 and Ryan Tannehill at $80. You're offering to sell me either one for $80, therefore I'm going to buy Weeden as it's slightly better value.

But that's not reality. There's a harsh risk reality to the Draft. For instance, you pass on Tannehill at #8 overall thinking you can pick Weeden up at #42 overall, but how do you know he'll get there? What if he doesn't? You figure you have intel saying Weeden could go as high as #37 overall, so it is your plan to trade ahead of that pick and get him. What if your intel is wrong? What if the team you're trying to trade with suddenly bumps the price considerably and says the Browns are also on the horn trying to trade for that pick?

So this becomes game theory. Go for Tannehill at #8, and you've got the bird in hand, he's yours. Go for Weeden later, and you might get better value, but you also might get nothing.

So even though I consider Weeden the superior value, I could find myself going for Ryan Tannehill at #8 overall out of simple risk aversion.

 

Amen.

 

Either of these two would be a good pick just not trading up from 8 to do it. What's the chances of one or both getting past the first round?

 

I don't see how the Tannehill pick would be considered a bad pick or a reach.

-We need a QB.

-He knows the system we are running & most of his coaching staff is already here making for a quick learning curve.

-He plays Qb(arguably the most important position on the field), many say he has potential, and he is projected as a 1rd-2 rd qb.

-We are installing a west coast offensive SYSTEM. Meaning a system qb can have success.

-He could very possibly fall to us without us having to give anything up.

 

Tannehill won't get out of the 1st round unless he gets shot and killed by gang members between now and the Draft. And even then, might be Drafted 1st round posthumously.

Weeden I would say there's like a 50/50 shot he gets out of the 1st round into the 2nd round. But I personally believe there's only a 20% chance at most that he makes it all the way to #42 overall. I think the Browns could take him at #37, or the Bills at #41. But just as significant is the possibility that one of the many teams in line after the Dolphins that could use a QB talent like him at a bargain price, one of them could trade up (the same as I'm speculating the Dolphins to potentially trade up).

 

I'll take it one step further and say, if your staff feels like QB X will become franchise, no matter where they take him its not a reach. QBs are boom or bust. There's no real in between. Henne was an average QB, but he's a bust. Because of that, and because of the changes to rookie scale, I don't think reaches on QBs exist anymore. If you take a QB in rd 1 and he's rated as 4rd, but you feel he's franchise, then who cares where you take him. He'll either boom or bust regardless. If he busts, he busts and is a waste of a pick regardless of where he was taken. If he booms, then the perceived value was wrong and he was worth your first pick.

I know, I know, there's the whole but we could have had Awesome Player Y. Every pick you make means you miss out on how many ever players get picked until your next pick. That happens regardless if you match some nebulous value scale or not. Before, if you missed you'd franchise is in cap hell. Since that doesn't happen anymore, its time to rethink draft value from top to bottom. Especially when coupled with a QB's extra importance.

It is time to throw out the old value charts and notions of what draft value is. BPA is less important than Team Need now. And because of that each teams value chart should be different than every other team's.

 

Last year there was no way Ponder goes in the first round. The people who liked him saw it as a great deal to get him later. But as it turns out, he went before our first pick. I am far too risk averse to pass on the QB at #8 and then hope I can get one later. I've watched the draft for too long to believe that there's any assurance of getting our QB later. There is no non-QB we could pick at #8 that would make me okay with missing out on Tannehill and Weeden (despite how much I like Kuechly). Cousins or Osweiller late would not appease me. Actually I'm not crazy about either guy so I would probably feel worse. Basically, if we get either Tannehill or Weeden, I will consider this draft, this off-season a success. If we don't get either guy then the team failed to accomplish their #1 off-season priority.

 

do we have the 42nd pick or the 41st? Since the saints lost draft picks didn't they? Either way that doesn't help our chances of hoping weeden is there. I'm just curious.

 

There's something to be said for this. You need balls to pass on Tannehill at #8. I don't think Jeff Ireland has those kinds of stones, so I don't see him passing. Weeden will end up playing for Kansas City, someone like that.

 

The first draft pick the Saints lost is after our #42 pick. We have #42. I believe we also have #72, #73, #103, #145, #196 and #215.

 

I see the Tannehill at #8 scenario as fairly cut and dry. We have more knowledge on him than anybody so if we have conviction and he's there, we take him. If we do not TRULY have conviction, then we perhaps try to trade down, possibly figuring either he or Weeden are available later in the first, but at better value while picking up an additional pick. If we have no real conviction, we go with a player we feel will provide significant impact right away.

 

thanks. I like having 2 picks in a row!

 

Tannehill @ 8

 

Hard to say, because we don't really know what Ross and Ireland are thinking. Saying they need to get a big time quarterback could just be lip service, ala Ross saying our offense last season was going to be exciting and high powered. At that point it could have been part of a concerted

Got it. Makes sense, assuming Tannehill and/or Weeden pan out as you predict.

 

I don't know that I would characterize it as "balls". IMO it would be a stupid risk to pass on the QB at #8 unless you know for a fact that you can get Tannehill or Weeden later (which is of course, impossible). Last year we were picking #15 and three QBs that were rated lower than Tannehill or Weeden were gone by #12. The new CBA changed the risk/reward balance for acquiring the one necessary position for perennial contention. It's no longer just teams with poor QBs that will jump up to take QBs early. Now the cost is low enough that teams with decent QBs will do it too. Teams like Buff, KC and Philly would not have considered a QB in the first round a few years back. Now, there's only about half a dozen teams you could safely count out.

 

The way I see it, Jake Locker went 8 overall last year so there is no reason NOT to take Tannehill at 8 unless you absolutely value Weeden much higher. Jake Locker never showed me the talent that Tannehill showed me (if that even means anything, I don't get paid to do this). Tannehill is the athlete that Locker is but I see him as a better QB too. The Titans know what's up. They drafted him 8, went to battle with Hasselbeck, and now have a backup who looked good in relief and a veteran starter. You just don't play cute with the QB position. Draft value does not compare to Quarterbacking.

 

so, by that logic, there's a scenario where Vikings should take Richardson at #3, even though they have AP? I agree mostly with what you're saying, but there are exceptions.

 

So basically you're saying that we are fine as long as we get one. Just make sure you get one?

 

Not just them, though.

When you have a big need at QB and you bow out, you're on the hook for the guys you could have taken.

Andy Dalton. So what, if I personally didn't predict Dalton to be any good. I can't be fired if I've never been hired. But when Jeff Ireland bowed out of all QBs available in the 2011 off season he essentially said, we still believe in Chad Henne, and we don't believe in any of the QBs we could have legitimately taken. One of those they could have had was Dalton. Like I said before, I felt Dalton was undeserving of a Pro Bowl in 2011, but what if he improves in 2012 and actually deserves it this time? Why does Ireland get a pass on that?

Matt Flynn. We're just going to have to see how he performs in Seattle. But would success really surprise you? People forget about Sidney Rice because he was battling injuries most of 2011, but what if he's healthy? Even hurt, even with Tarvaris Jackson throwing the ball, he still produced 1.7 yards per route in 2011, which is pretty good. Heck of a weapon for Flynn. Not to mention, that rookie Doug Baldwin looked really good there. They have Zach Miller and Cameron Morrah. The OL features Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Max Unger and John Moffitt. The scheme is pretty familiar to Flynn. Could succeed and any success from Flynn is a direct attack on Jeff Ireland's decision to lowball him.

And it's interesting, Ireland has sort of gotten a reprieve on Christian Ponder because Ponder didn't have a whole lot of success in 2011. But what if he pulls a Josh Freeman? Freeman was terrible for the most part in 2009, exception of one game or two, then turned it around and had a superb 2010 campaign. In a draft where everyone is talking about moving up for Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins wouldn't have had to move very far to get Ponder. Shouldn't that be considered?

And for that matter, what if Jake Locker proves me wrong and ends up playing in 2012, and playing really, really well? He didn't play much in 2011, but the little bit he did play, he already looked better than he did at Washington (not hard). He had a 118.8 passer rating on his 66 attempts. If he goes all out in 2012 and really nails it, shouldn't Ireland's laissez faire approach to the position in 2011 be questioned more? Does our snippet of inside info that they were high on Locker make things better, or worse?

What if Alex Smith goes down and Colin Kaepernick comes in and plays really well? What if Ryan Mallett somehow finds himself in the game on Sundays and plays really well?

A lot of people don't quite get, that no matter what you do, you're making a bet. If you pass on a guy, you're making a bet. If you get a guy, you're making a bet. Last off season Ireland bet on Henne, and bet against the guys he could have acquired. You can say he bet on Moore but that is not accurate, as he signed Moore with the understanding that Chad Henne is the starter.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Miami doesn't select Tannehill at #8 and instead selects an immediate impact player at #8. I wouldn't mind either scenario but if Cleveland passes on Tannehill with their first pick they will probably take him with their second pick in the #1st round unless Kansas City drafts him at #11, in which case Cleveland would probably take Wheeden with their second pick. If this happens we will be looking at other options at quarterback later in the draft.

 

Yeah, sort of.

 

I agree with this to a point. If they think Wheeden is the better prospect then I have no problem gunning for him. Ditto for Tannehill. I just think you have to make a commitment somewhere that you feel someone is the guy and make sure that you grab him.

 

bleh!...Tannehill looks so mediocre throwing the football. I'd rather take the kid from Arizona or Houston in the 7th.

Cue Dos Equis acoustic:

I don't always evaluate college quarterbacks, but when I do, I go with my initial gut response...

 

Unless he is on the run. He looks elite.

 

Jake Locker got a 119 passer rating in his 66 attempts in 2011 by essentially being the same guy he was in college, which is to say a guy that for the most part has trouble completing even simple passes, can hurt you with his legs, then sprinkles in about 2 or 3 throws that are just jaw-dropping awesome.

The only difference between Tannehill and Locker is Tannehill can consistently hit the throws that should be relatively routine, whereas Locker can't.

 

I can't even tell if you're being sarcastic or not?

'Sarcasm by default' would be a good name for a band...

 

Meh, he looked worse than Locker staying consistent with his throws against LSU on youtube...I just don't see any throws that make me even raise an eyebrow. We need to drop if Blackmon doesn't fall to us.

 

Not being sarcastic. His throwing on the run is one of the best I have seen. I would include professionals on that as well.

 

I cannot agree with that.

 

That Tannehill is underwhelming, or we need to drop if Blackmon doesn't fall to us?

 

Tannehill is worse at staying consistant than Locker.

 

Maybe, I mean, there's no way I'm watching any more Tannehill game film...

 

Well, if it's highlight throws you want, just watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClxFYIThbAE&feature=related

 

Agreed. Flynn, Dalton, Kapernick, Ponder, Mallett, Locker, etc. If those guys significantly outplay Matt Moore/Garrard/Tannehill/Weeden/etc., then Ireland deserves criticism. As it stands, Dalton is really the only one I'd say has done so.

I don't buy the "he didn't bet on Moore" thing though. The reality is that it was very unlikely anyone could take the starting role from Henne because of the timing of camp. Moore couldn't even participate int he beginning of camp because of some rule in CBA IIRC.

 

What has Quinn done in his career that makes you say that? Just curious.

 

Its a crap shoot. Gotta be in it to win it IMO. 2nd round picks regarding QB's have been a complete bust. That No8 pick is showing to be a total question mark. Stick or twist. Either way that pick is about to become Irelands legacy.

 

None of this really means much TBH. We didn't bring in a defensive minded HC to where Sherman would be responsible for the offense. Philbin is our HC and will likely be the brains behind the offense and its design. Sherman might be the OC, but it's likely to be Philbin's baby with Sherman helping to instill and run it. If we draft Tannehill, he will be our QB, period. If Sherman hypothetically leaves, it would likely have little bearing on Philbin's offense & Tannehill; therefore it certainly would NOT saddle us with a QB.

 

I say it doesn't count with Moore, because Ireland himself was part of the decision that Matt Moore is a backup and that's it. If he was really here to compete, there would have been an open camp competition, but it was never like that. They declared Henne the starter, they never opened up the reps for a competition. So how can Ireland turn around and say well we made a bet on Matt Moore and he panned out?