Again, I think that changes now because your franchise isn't going to be in financial hell. Understand, that what you're basically arguing is that even though the franchise killing financial penalty is gone, the risk now is the same as it was.
No, the risk is less than it was. Before, you would lose the games required to determine his ability, plus a lot of cap space. Now, you just lose the games and time required to determine his ability (i.e. what happened to this organization with Henne). I mean, why did we continue with Chad Henne after his first year? He wasn't making much money.
I think it also depends on how new the coach is, how the rest of the team looks and a host of other things. If, for example, Tannehill came in and sat that first year as is expected, but didn't look all that great behind the scenes, I could see them taking another QB next year and just saying he was too good to pass up. Kind of like when JJ started at Dallas and he took Aikman and followed him up with Walsh in the supplemental draft.
Henne doesn't count, because the majority of his time here we couldn't take another QB high because of the cost. The risk is significantly less and is solely based on talent evaluation now. The gamble is tiny and its even for all teams.
We didn't need to take another QB in the draft! There were plenty of other QBs available as FAs, or even on our own roster that were better than Henne. Henne played half a season in front of Chad Pennington. He played in front of Matt Moore. Matt Moore went 6-3 as a starter last year. We would have been a better team had Moore been named the starter in TC. Chad Henne never earned a starting spot. He was always handed a starting spot. He was handed the starting spot because he was a 2nd round draft pick. You would be hard pressed to see a team draft a QB early and never play him. Could you imagine the fan reaction if we draft Tannehill but he never sees a single snap? And to be clear, I wouldn't mind if they draft Tannehill. I think he's a very good prospect. But you're hitching your wagons to him, at least for 2 seasons. I'm fine with that, but at the same time I recognize that if he busts, then there is collateral damage.
The problem is that your perception that Henne kept starting because he was drafted in the 2nd round. It could just be that Sparano was an idiot. It could have been a mandate from Parcells. We don't know. You can still take a QB now if you want to every draft until you find the guy you're looking for. QB's are as good as currency.
In theory thats great, and I agree. In practice it never happens. If it did, then surely we would be talking about trading up to get Tannehill.
How can you say it never happens, when this only the second draft with the new CBA? You have no data. To be clear i don't expect the strategy to change overnight or by this draft, it will happen though.
There have been plenty of less cost-prohibitive QBs available in the past. How often do teams draft two 2nd round QBs consecutively? Do you honestly think Stephen Ross would be OK with drafting Ryan Tannehill, then never letting him see a snap? Why was everyone clamoring for Chad Henne before the 09 season, after Pennington had an MVP season in 08? People want to see the young guy that was drafted highly.
You're just not making sense to me anymore, in relation to the argument we've been having. We aren't talking about just lesser cost prohibitive QBs. We're talking about first/second round draft pick QBs. I say teams can afford to draft a QB high every year till they find one they like because the cost isn't prohibitive anymore now that we're about to have the second draft under the new CBA which is uncharted territory. You argue that with why did people want to start drafted Henne over FA Penny and that no one has ever done what I'm saying is going to START happening for the first time?
Right. We'll see if Minnesotta, Jacksonville, and Tennesee cut bait on the QBs they drafted last year. Can't wait to find out. The Rams passed on RG3 because they just didn't think he was any good. Sure. And to be clear, my point was that in order to determine whether you "like" a QB, you need to actually play him, which is the cost. Teams have been able to afford to draft 2nd round QBs every year, yet they haven't.
Maybe they passed on RGIII because they're happy with what they have. Regardless I said the strategy will change in time. Your point about 2nd QBs is well, pointless because the talent level is less there. Yes, you can play your QB and still cut bait or draft another now.
the QB issue & value of Tannehill is really beyond our speculation. 1) we need a Franchise Prospect to groom asap. we go no where without one. 2) either he is or isn't a franchise quality pick 3) no one knows (in the entire NFL) better than Sherman, Philbin & Ireland Tannehill's potential to fulfill that expectation & become the Franchise QB two things are certain: we can't just keep putting off the shot @ a #1 pick for franchise QB indefinitely & because it is a career make or brake decision for everyone involved in the decision, it will be a well thought out call they make @ 8 in 2012. got to respect their decision & their draft choice whatever it be @ 8 I still believe it will be Ryan Tannehill
Not really, because the crux of your argument is that QBs draft value has been raised. But he still has to play, right?
I HOPE MIAMI IS smarter then taking Tannehill they ought just jump up and trade with indy and give them all our picks this year then Luck would bring us some luck on the field. most fans around here are gearing up to laugh at miami because of ditching our best wr and taking the worst player from the conference but only miami would go for lesser talent. i hope thereis a reaaly good wr in the draft to make us forget Marshall .
Why would Miami be stupid for taking a player they've had highly rated since the end of last season? They should clearly not take him b/c you have made your evaluation. LOL
said it before, even ran a thread on it this should be the easiest draft in decades Tannehill @ 8, then 2,3,3,& 4 bpa having said that nobody really knows anything until after the fact the #8 pick will be made by the most knowledgeable people in the NFL on Tannehill got to go with their decision this draft is deep in potential on the Offensive Line & @ WR however I believe the draft is not the major issue in 2012 the only exception would be for the possible acquisition of a future Franchise QB I see possible up-grades, not absolute needs we are not rebuilding & are in the hunt for our future Franchise QB this season will be all about coaching
i really never understood the henne hate. he never had a fair shake with the horrible o line, horrible play calling, and horrible WRs minus marshell who was a big quitting cry baby if he got locked down at any point during the game. matt moore will never have the kind of game henne had against new england week 1. I'm also pretty sure henne only played 3 and half games last year. I'm not saying he's the best ever but i wont be shocked if he has success where ever he ends up if put a little better situation than the garbage he went through here. everyone thinks moore is so great and i dont get it. the bum went 6-6 and lost every game we played a play off team. lets also not forget some of the games where he did basically nothing like against the raiders ( we just ran the **** out of the ball) and the bills (defense killed them). Going 6-6, 6-7 if you count the game he came in the second quarter, and throwing 16 tds along with 9 interceptions plus fumbling and choking away games like on thanksgiving is not a good year.
I am actually a pretty decent Henne supporter (in comparison to everybody else on here), but it's not like the Jags are in a better situation than Miami. If they can grab some WR talent and Gabbert struggles out of the gate, I think Henne can be a top 15 qb.
