If you don;t know, Jerrod Johnson was Sherman's other QB at TAMU. Tannehill had a very high number of tipped balls at TAMU, in preseason with the dolphins, and now in the regular season game vs Houston. But Tannehill is not the only common denominator. Mike Sherman and his offense were along for the ride in all three instances. So is it Tannehill who has the tipped passes problem, or is it Mike Sherman's offense? The best way to fid out is look at the OTHER QB in Sherman's offense and see if he also had an abnormally high number of tipped passes. That lucky player is... (drumroll)... Jerrod Johnson, about whom a Packers blogger wrote this before the 2011 draft: Johnson, by the way, is 6' 5", so we aren't looking at a short guy here. But this is where things start to seem self-contradictory: (nfldraftscout.com) This period was also under Sherman. So what happened in 2010 that suddenly BOTH TAMU QBs, Johnson AND Tannehill suffered from tipped passes? Did Sherman change his offense? Did TAMU suddenly lose starters along the Oline? Why would a guy like Johnson, KNOWN for never throwing interceptions suddenly start having tons of balls tipped at the line and INTs along with it? I mean a DRASTIC change. Over 2008-2009 the guy goes 242 attempts without an INT, then suddenly, in only 7 games he throws NINE? So what the hell changed? I scoured the internet high and low for ANYTHING saying Sherman had tweaked or changed his offense. Nope. He did not take a different approach in 2010 than in 2009. And the QB was the same. So what the hell happened to Johnson in 2010? I found this on a 2010 Aggies preview: (http://www.rockmnation.com/2010/7/13/1557906/texas-a-m-beyond-the-box-score) and So, in 2008 and 2009 Sherman runs an offense with a QB in Jerrod Johnson who not only has no INT problems, but sets records for how long he goes without one. Then TAMU loses three O-line starters. 2010 season comes and the same guy is getting balls tipped left and right and turns into an interception machine. They switch to Tannehill but the problem remains. Batted balls. What I take from this is that it is absolutley CRITICAL to Mike Sherman's system to have the right O-linemen. I don;t know if it is experience, technique or physical talent that makes them good enough for his system, but clearly the single biggest factor that caused a drastic, sudden rise in batted balls at TAMU in in Sherman's offense was a change on the O-line. This suggests two things: 1) The batted balls here in Miami may be more the O-line's fault than Tannehill's. 2) Sherman's system is very reliant on the O-line being able to prevent batted balls Though I have no clue yet what, specifically, he needs from the O-line to prevent tipped passes. Does he need players with certain attributes, or just ones who use a specific technique as coached, consistently? Whatever it is, he initially had it at TAMU his first two years and then it departed with those three starters. Perhaps looking at those the three starters who left TAMU after the 2009 season would give us an idea of what the Sherman offense needs at O-line. (His biggest loss was Michael Shumard at LT who started twenty-eight games for TAMU.) Obviously Tannehill could still improve and help the situations by using his eyes better, but I have to admit, I may have put too much blame on Tannehill and not enough importance on the role of the O-line in Sherman's system.
By the way, part of the good news is that despite starting freshman on 2010, the O-line at TAMU apparently improved GREATLY by the end of that season. They got even better throughout 2011. That gives me reason to believe Sherman will be able to get Jerry and Martin to develop, and get the most out of Pouncey too. http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/2012/04/texas-am-offensive-line.html/
Perhaps with the change in OL personnel in 2010, replacing veterans with underclassmen, Sherman felt the need to make things easier for them in pass protection. So began to use a lot more of the short set quick pass plays than he was earlier with Johnson, when his OL was more experienced, and Johnson wasn't getting passes tipped or picked off anywhere near as much.
Well done in the research department, definitely something to think about. MrClean makes a good point as well. Hopefully we get this issue solved soon and we don't have to worry about it.
Good work Barry. This is the kind of research that actually enables us to really know something, rather than simply pretending we do.
I would think some tape watching of Johnson would be in order here. The fact that he had some interceptions off of tipped balls may not tell the whole story. Are we talking about tipped balls at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary? How many of those nine interceptions were actually tipped passes? I know Johnson claims "several", but that's pretty vague to me, and doesn't specify where the tipping occurred. It could very well be a number that's close to average. Also, How many tipped passes at the LOS did he have in total, interception or not?
great thread, love this stuff... i do think Mr. Clean's point is part of it also.. yes the young Olineman needing grooming probably had some effect, but also the fact that the play calling tried to compensate for that young oline... three step drops and short quick passes just naturally won't get that elevation to avoid being tipped, does not matter how "tall" tannehill throws, a 6'5" lineman with his arms all the way up will always be higher than a release point for a QB, no matter how tall they try to stand...
Unfortunately, and forgive me if I'm mistaken, but you're only able to sort of back into this issue of tipped passes with Jerrod Johnson. We know the 19 count for Ryan Tannehill in 2011 because of an article citing a stat service that tallied it for all the 1st round QBs this year (plus Russell Wilson I believe)...but we really don't know what Jerrod Johnson's tipped passes were like in 2009 or 2010. I don't think interceptions are a valid proxy.
You mean have better guesses rather than pretending we do. A few of those batted passes came from the left side of the line and that is a damn good side of our O-line.
I'm not sure that this necessarily entails any inherent flaws in the offense. It could be likely that both QBs just had issues with having balls tipped. There are a lot of schemes similar to Sherman's that you can look at as well.
Well, if the reasons for the batted passes are the under-developed OL, does that really surprise anyone here?? Most of us have been following this team for years and I can't remember the last time we had a solid OL to work with?? This year is no exception. We have all be focused on the QB and the WRs, but the OL is the crux of the issues with this team, it appears, yet again... I have all the confidence that Long and Pouncey are fine....RI is ok as long as he between those two...the right side....??? Martin looks to improve but that gaping hole at the RG spot has been troublesome for years here... Is JJ good enough to step up ?? Is there someone else on the roster that fits the bill ?? If the OL is part of or the bulk of the problem and that specific problem is correctable (as players and coaches have been saying) then we should see what kind of OL staff, in concert with Sherman and the QBs to correct the issue to some extent... I just hope we have the personnel to do that...
I have to wonder if offenses that feature a high percentage of three-step drops don't consist of a uniquely large percentage of tipped passes regardless of the team, the quarterback, or the offensive coordinator. When you're running a relatively large percentage of plays that defensive linemen are taught to defend by trying to bat down passes, you're probably going to have a larger number of them.
Yeah, I think thats an obvious issue. If your offense is built around timing, then there is the obvious negatives that apply.
They need to incorporate a semi-delayed draw where they give a look that they're setting up to pass off a three-step drop, give a quick little pump fake, and then hand the ball off to a very quick back like Bush or Miller, who can scoot through the hole and into the second level while the OL is cutting down the jumping defensive linemen. You gotta make those guys pay and second guess that strategy.
I agree. Wish I had time to find those games and watch them. It would complete the picture of what really happened. So far all we have is a suspicion and a theory, but no observations.
I agree, it's a hole in my data. The best I could find was Jerrod saying he had a lt of tipped balls. So there is some assumption happening here. It certainly seems like a big coincidence though. Say, where did you find your Tannehill tipped passes stats? Any chance they have Jerrod's numbers?
Like I said it was one article that was focused on the 2012 1st round QBs...quoted a stat service I'm unaware of. Don't even know if they named the service.
It doesn't sound like Jerrod had tipped ball problems in 2008-2009. What changed? I can't find any other reason. Doesn't mean there isn't one. Just that I can't find it. I even considered if it was due to level of competition rising when TAMU switched to the SEC, but that was at the start of 2011, not 2010.
What I'm saying is that the scheme may dictate that the QB has to do things to prevent balls being tipped. That doesn't necessarily mean the scheme is dictating tipped balls.
Predictability of play calling and a failure to make an adjustment when needed were two glaring things that stuck out on Sunday. Now it seems this is nothing new with Sherman putting his QB's in horrible situations to succeed.
I thought Trent Dilfer had a good view on this. He essentially is putting forward the idea that from a QB standpoint if you've got a quick and high release then you've done most of your work in terms of avoiding tipped passes, and that at this stage of Tannehill's learning curve it might be detrimental to his development to have him overly obsessed about tipped passes that are actually coming about more because of predictability in the play calling and design. He suggested that the Dolphins change up some of Tannehill's launching points in order to make them less predictable, rather than get him worrying too much about it. I kind of agree with him. This is a young quarterback. Help him out a little. Don't put everything on him.
I don't want to go too far down the due-road you mention here, but it seemed to me that there were fewer tipped balls in the second half, which suggests to me that the Dolphins made adjustments. Also, I'm not sure, based on what seems to have happened at Texas A&M, if the issue was predictability. If so, was it caused by needing to call certain plays due to the inexperienced OLine he had in 2010?
Regarding predictability, I thought the Dolphins did need to mix in a few more deep throws to keep the defense off balance. In terms of not having Tannehill focus on it too much, it's interesting. This was an extraordinarily good pass-tipping line so you don't expect it to be as big of a problem moving forwards. A problem, yes. Big enough to warrant major attention? Maybe, maybe not. Also, you'd expect the OL, especially Martin, to improve as the year goes on. So, again, how much development focus do you want to spend with Tannehill on this rather than reading coverages, etc. Totally agree that you don't want him over thinking everything out there. That leads to hesitation. You want him playing mentally fast.
I don't know the numbers, but it seemed like MMoore had more than his share of batted passes in the preseason too, and I seem to recall Devlin having one or two in a pretty limited number of pass attempts.
Would love to see the batted passes stats divided by which OLinemans guy did it. I wonder if Martin isn't having The most issues.
A couple of clarifications on the whole Jarrod Johnson thing and batted balls: Johnson was recovering from a shoulder injury at the beginning of 2010. He started the A&M season at QB, but it was obvious his passes didn't have the same zip as before. He then started having the INT problem. Tanny got in and never gave up the starting job. He had a few batted balls that I can remember, but it wasn't a huge problem. I think you guys are making a bigger deal out of it than it is. Remember, JJ Watt for the Texans is great at batting passes down. That's how he got an INT last year in the playoffs against the Bengals. Second, Texas A&M didn't start playing in the SEC until this season. So, the above poster who said the SEC play last year may have had something to do with it is not correct. This info is from a TAMU grad, fwiw.
