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The Jake Long Contract

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by arsenal, Sep 13, 2012.

  1. arsenal

    arsenal Sunglasses and advil

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    Random post, but something I was thinking about with Jake Long.

    Though his play at times last year, and game 1 might not warrant it, Long is one of the best LTs in the game. His contract is up after this year and I am sure he'll be the top paid LT in the league when he signs. My question is, should it be with the Miami Dolphins?

    There is no question that the LT is the most important member of an Oline, but to me an Oline unit is only as strong as its weakest link. Last year we had great play out of our Left side of our line, but due to Columbo and Carey, our line sucked. We've had Jake for 5 years now and have we ever had a dominant oline? Maybe in 2008 but I do feel our success was more wildcat created than pure Oline play, but my point is we've had this top tier LT and what has it done for us?

    Now of course, having someone worse than Jake Long at LT with the rest of our pieces the same is making things tremendously worse, BUT I worry that signing Jake to a HUUUUUUGE contract is going to then limit how much we can spend on other offensive lineman.

    So my question is do you think signing Long would then limit what we'd spend on the rest of our Oline? If a team says, ok our Oline should cost us in the range of $X thru $Y, and if a big chunk of that is on one guy, then the rest of the guys salaries will have to drop. Would we be able to resign Pouncey in time and say Martin if he pans out if we have this huge contract for Jake? Would signing Jake hinder our flexibility in terms of money and the oline in the future, or am I overreacting to what his contract may due to us?
     
  2. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Signing Jake limits our ability to spend everywhere. Problem is, value... the trade value isn't there. You'll never get compensation anywhere close to what we gave up to get him. You either pay him and take a loss with flexibility or trade him with the franchise tag and take a loss in value and ability. Damned if you do and damned if you dont.
     
  3. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Yeah, a little early...
     
  4. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    We'll see how this season plays out. Jake needs to stay healthy or he's losing money and is more likely to get franchise tagged than resigned by us... if he continues to be bit by the injury bug next year (after getting tagged), then he could potentially walk in 2014 when he turns 29. I don't think Long would be here regardless when Martin is due for his next contract. And you could very well see Martin jumping to LT before then anyway.
     
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  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The man wants to be paid about 10% of the team's salary cap annually. As an offensive lineman.

    I'm sorry but if you want that you've got to be PERFECT. And he hasn't even been close to that, lately.
     
  6. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    IMO the on field value , difference is not worth the expenditure . He would have to be tangibly better than what he has been over the last while , no disrespect intended , just making a hard call.
     
  7. Daben

    Daben Well-Known Member

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    Well obviously signing any player to a big deal is going to reduce the cap room for signing other players. The issue is does the player put out consistently elite performances and have a relatively good injury history, and if you had to replace him how difficult and how expensive would it be to do so? (I.e. needs a first round pick?). Baseball and it's ability to produce reliable statistics values players in terms of wins above replacement by an average player in that role, and a similar viewpoint applies here (although primarily through eyeballing as the statistical control isn't there).

    Jake Long when healthy has clearly shown top level play, but his play has dropped off the elite level it was at earlier in his career and this is usually explained in terms of injury. As such we are absolutely right to wait for him to perform over this season to evaluate if his nagging injuries are going to cause the current level of play to be the new mean level of performance with him. My own expectation is that he'll end up playing for the tag in 2013 for much the same reason.

    As far as how much does it cost to replace Long, well, if you believe in Martin as a future above average left tackle the cost would be a starting right tackle. So that's a second, third round type of value. If you don't see Martin as anymore than average however then we'd be looking at a first round type of investment. I'm not going to include free agents as a replacement here as in that case you just resign Long, and stop wasting time with dumb hypotheticals. For this dumb hypothetical however the reasoning would be that if you can net a first round pick in trade for Long, the move would be a win due to the salary differential the replacement first round tackle would cost compared to Long. Anything less than a first rounder means you are throwing in with Martin and likely taking a talent loss, which may end up being greater than any salary saving you would make (as veteran free agents new to the team are usually very salary inefficient relative to their performance).

    So to sum up, tag Long with the non exclusive franchise tag. If he signs anywhere take the comp, if not let him sign the tag and play the year. Probability is that Long's value will decline rather than accumulate. Whilst that won't neccessarily make him easier to sign, it makes him easier to replace.
     
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  8. SCPhinFan

    SCPhinFan Junior Member

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    I'd be willing to listen to offers. I wouldn't break the bank.
     
  9. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    I think his play is not elite level (mostly because of injuries). We just have to wait to see what he's asking for money wise. It may b eless then we expect.
     
  10. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Excellent work CK. I also thought Misi looked good while Odrick was invisible.
     
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  11. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    We are definitely damned if we do and damned if we don't. There's no doubt in my mind that the franchise tag will be used to delay this damning. lol.
    I think we are better off with him than without him. If we choose to be without him, after using the franchise tag to delay the problem, all i can say is that we better not treat this like the Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis departures which left us with less talent now, with a chance to only hopefully replace the talent we already had in the future. That is is most damning logic I care to think of that will ever work out in a teams favor.

    Best case scenario is that Jake Long would be willing to do what is necesarry for the greater good of the team, play for less money. If that doesn't happen, the next best thing would be have a deal in place to bring a pro bowl caliber LT that would play for much less money while shopping Jake Long around for whatever team will give us the most valuable pick(s). Then we would have the option to do what i would do as a GM, which would be bring Jake into my office and say look Jake, I want you on this team but I have 2 different deals set in place to get good pick(s) for you and bring in a pro bowl caliber LT for much less money than you want. I would then say, Jake time is of the essence in my decision and i prefer to keep you if you are willing to play for a more cap friendly deal. If not i will pull the trigger on the 2 deals i have set in place on the best available player that will fill the most amount of your shoes, but obviously not all of your shoes and a chance to get better in a future draft. So Jake, you know what i prefer to happen and you know what I am willing to let happen. The ball is in your court but i need a decision in 24 hours, preferably now!
    If i was GM i would either set something like that in place, be honest without giving up the details, or I would bluff about it with nothing in place. Both options are onl necesarry if the cap and the players demands are problamatic. Both options also give the player/agent the best chance to change their stance and take one for the team.
    If the above ideas fail, i would either pull the trigger on the deals i have in place, or if i was bluffing I would end up keeping and paying Jake Long while hoping to do the best I could possibly do to add other talent and stay within the cap limit.
    IMO anything else would hurt the team.
     
  12. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Haha, wrong thread, hope you know it was for your write-up...
     
  13. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    I'm not even sure that any offensive lineman, no matter how good he may be, is worth 10% of your salary cap.
     
  14. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    i still think its to much money for a player who is not touching the ball, if we have to let him go so be it
     
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  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    With all the quick game this offense utilizes, Jake Long just isn't that valuable.

    I'd franchise him and trade him.
     
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  16. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    certainly not against trading him down the line if we can get something juicy in return. But it better be more than a 2nd round pick.
     
  17. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    You package him and Bush together and now you have something.....do it, because they both walk at the end of the year if they dont get tagged....

    but you know there is that Irish fella.....
     
  18. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    This is why you don't draft an LT #1 overall.
     
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  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If Bush keeps playing the way he's playing I'm starting to lean toward seeing if we can keep him. I'm pretty impressed right now. Let's see if it lasts.
     
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  20. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    oh boy...
     
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  21. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I feel like we haven't discussed that enough.
     
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  22. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    The sarcasm-meter is approaching red levels on this one.
     
  23. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    If Bush plays like he did last year...I say we use the tag on him. If the OC sprinkles in some RB screens then he may just be the next M Faulk.
     
  24. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I dunno, Pace helped the Rams an awful lot during the Super Bowl years. I mean, they had Holt, Bruce and Faulk.

    Given the team's complete ineptitude at the position at the time of the draft, I'd say we'd ruin Matty Ice like we did Brian Griese.

    But yeah, now the scheme is different and it renders Long impractical at that cost.
     
  25. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Father time CK IMO, I do 2 years max....and I don't think he takes it....

    and it sucks love the guy, love the leadership, love his attitude....
     
  26. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Good point. Should've said "This is why you don't draft an LT #1 overall...when you don't already have a QB."
     
  27. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    Look at Joe Thomas' contract for a baseline. 8/92m with 44m guaranteed.

    No way I'd give Jake that.
     
  28. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    IMO the days of huge contracts for LTs are a thing of the past. Three highest paid LTs are Long, Miami, Thomas Cleveland ,Ferguson, Jets. Check all those teams records the last three or four years and you see its not worth it.

    Now check out some teams like the Pats, Saints, Green Bay, Texans, Ravens on what they are paying their LTs and look at their records. Without dumping truck loads of money on their LTs they can actually afford to pay skill players something decent.

    Long will get the Franchise tag if necessary.
     
  29. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Jake Long reminds me a great deal of former first round pick Tony Boselli. Boselli was the second overall selection by the Jaguars in the 1995 draft. He was a great LT early in his career, but injuries hampered his play after a few years and he was eventually forced to retire after seven years in the NFL, because of his multiple injuries.

    Long was probably the best LT in the NFL during his first three seasons in the league. Last year he was injured for most of the year and his play suffered because of these injuries. This year, his knee was injured during the preseason and while he played decently in the Texans game, he doesn't appear to be the dominant LT his was just two years ago. Unfortunately because of his numerous injuries over the past few season, the Dolphins may have already seen the best years Long will have in his career.

    Unless Long can show over the course of this season that he can once again become the dominant LT he was just a few years ago, the Dolphins should only try to resign him if he is willing to accept a contract based on the player he is today.Right now he is still in the top half of LT's in the NFL, but he is no longer the best LT in the NFL. The Dolphins shouldn't overpay him, when and if they do sign him to a new contract. If Long is adamant that he wants to be paid as the top LT in the NFL. The Dolphins should just thank him for his services and wish him well with his new team.
     
  30. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    If Jake doesn't stay healthy I would not throw him a huge contract. Guy has the ability but if he can't stay healthy why pay him that premium money?
     
  31. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    I do not think Jake is injury prone so to speak but I do think the little injuries that most offensive lineman encounter are upon Jake now. Most Olineman all have knee sprains, ankle sprains. In Jakes case he had the shoulder thing also. I am sure the surgery/treatments were done right and he rehabbed them. What we see now is a good offensive lineman dealing with the regular work related injuries as opposed to the Jake Long we saw the first few years prior to the inevitable Oline type injuries catching up with him.

    How he reacts to this will define how much he gets paid. Long is still most certainly a good offensive lineman. I just do not think he is 70 million or even 40 or 50 millionish good.
     
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  32. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    As it stands Long just isn't the difference-maker Boselli or Munoz were in their prime. Those two were able to shut down top flight REs and Long just isn't doing that right now. Another contract to look out for is Starks.
     
  33. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Long reminds me more of Jumbo Elliot than Tony Boselli.

    I would think given Long playing style he'd be invaluable to a power run team more so than a zone blocking team. The Steelers and Bears come immediately to mind.
     
  34. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That would be amazingly short-sighted given there's little chance that is their long term design.
     
  35. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would be in favor of this depending on what we get back.
     
  36. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    I would consider it more if Martin proves to be a good player. Then you can shift him to LT, fill the RT position and save serious money.

    But I do love Jake.
     
  37. jpep13

    jpep13 Coach Of The Year Club Member

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    Franchise long and trade him if possible. move Martin over and find a replacement on the right side. The replacement better have a hot girlfriend/wife to replace
    the departed.
     
  38. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    As much as I hate agreeing with you, I agree.

    Myself I do not believe in getting rid of hall of fame type players if they aren't headaches. However injuries have hurt Jake to the point where his strength isn't enough to make up for his lack of quickness. Or at least that is what it seems like.

    I would love to still have him on the team, just hard for me to justify 12 million a year.
     
  39. Killer Bees

    Killer Bees Bringin' the Ruckus

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    All of you guys make valid points, I just love having him Big Jake around though, I hope we work something out.

    It's nice as Dolphin fans to at least say we have one of the best players in the game at a certain position, hopefully next it's the QB spot lol
     
  40. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    He been quoted as saying that?
     

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