One of the strongest predictors of winning in the NFL is the difference between a team's QB rating and the QB rating of the opposing team, which is called QB rating differential. The correlation between QB rating differential and wins in the 2011 NFL season was 0.85, which is 0.15 from being a perfect one-to-one relationship. Very strong. The 2012 Miami Dolphins are 1-2. Its QB rating differentials in its three games are as follows: Game 1 Houston: QB rating = 102.4 Miami: QB rating = 39.0 Final score: Houston 30, Miami 10 Game 2 Oakland: QB rating = 74.4 Miami: QB rating = 91.0 Final score: Miami 35, Oakland 13 Game 3 New York: QB rating = 58.2 Miami: QB rating = 50.2 Final score: New York 23, Miami 20 Notice a pattern? We have a rookie QB folks. It's gonna take a while. Here are the data from last year: [TABLE="width: 330"] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, width: 128, bgcolor: transparent"]TEAM [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, width: 71, bgcolor: transparent"]WINS [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]QB RAT [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, width: 87, bgcolor: transparent"]QB RAT AG [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, width: 90, bgcolor: transparent"]QB RAT DIFF [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Packers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]15 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]122.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]80.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]42 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Saints [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]13 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]110.5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]86.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]24.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Patriots [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]13 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]105.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]86.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]19.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Cowboys [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]100.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]88.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]11.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Lions [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]10 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]97.2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]82.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]15.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Giants [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]92.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]86.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Texans [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]10 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]92.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]69 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]23.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]49ers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]13 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]91.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]17.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Falcons [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]10 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]91.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]83.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]7.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Steelers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]12 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]89.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]71.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]18 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Chargers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]88.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]92.5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-3.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Dolphins [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]84.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]83.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]1.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Panthers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]84.8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]98.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-13.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Titans [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]84.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]85.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-0.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Ravens [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]12 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]81.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]68.8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]12.9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Bengals [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]79.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]85 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-5.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Raiders [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]79.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]81.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-1.9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Jets [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]78.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]69.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Eagles [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]78.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]85.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-7.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Seahawks [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]77.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]74.8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]2.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Bills [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]77 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]90.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-13.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Vikings [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]74.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]107.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-33 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Cardinals [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]82.5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-8.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Bears [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]79.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-5.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Buccaneers [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]97.2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-23.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Broncos [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]93.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-19.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Redskins [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]87.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-14.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Chiefs [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]73 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]79.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-6.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Browns [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]72.8 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]80.6 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-7.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Colts [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]72.2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]103.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-31.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Rams [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]69 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]87.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-18.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]Jaguars [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]62.2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]83.7 [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]-21.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]CORR WITH WINS [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]0.785 [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]-0.559 [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]0.850 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
I'm sorry but I can't even come close to blaming Tannehill for this loss. I'm as angry as the next person about the loss, but it didn't come down to QB play today. It came down to field goal kicking and we came up short on that end. Not a big suprise looking at Carps preseason. The guy has looked shaky all year long and turned out to be the goat today. Plain and simple, after the Hartline catch you run that ball 3 times to get the kicker close and you help the guy. We didn't do that and we paid the ultimate price.
just saying, yes, in winning games the QB is probably playing better, but so is the rest of the team most likely. and likewise, in games you lose, you're probbbbbably allowing more points than you are scoring
Actually, the weaker the correlation between wins and the other areas of a team, the worse those other areas of the team can play if the play at QB is sufficient.
Chances are, if Tannehill's QB rating would've been what it was against Oakland (or better), none of what you're talking about would've mattered. I'm not blaming him for the loss, because he's a rookie. I'm merely pointing out where the difference in talent lies at the time being.
I thought he looked slow today, doesnt look like he's seeing the whole field, and was just slow in his reactionary time..kid is not looking past ten yards.
The correlation between QB rating and wins last year was 0.785 (see above). The correlation between QB rating differential and wins, however, was 0.85.
The pick six is something I suspect we would all be pinning the loss on quite a bit more if we weren't so "understanding" (i.e., hopeful) about the guy who holds the future of the franchise in his mitts.
Shou, I expect to see them from THill, it is a part of the rookie curve. What I don't want to see is THill playing Henne-esque..half roll outs, dink dunk 3 step stuff. For example, I LOVED the first shot to Bline in the EZ late in the game, that showed balls, did not think they should have followed it up with the same thing, this is how a Qb grows though.
shouright, I agree. Right now, the aspect of this team that will keep this team from getting to 8 wins on the year is the natural inconsistency from the quarterback, as he is a rookie, and our inability to create or stop big plays in the secondary. If you breakdown Ryan's numbers from this game, he had 16 completions out of 33 attempts. He was 3 for 10 from the 10 minute mark in the 4th quarter till the end of regulation. However, when you look at his completions and break them down from the standpoint of being a successful completion (i.e.. gaining 45% of the yards needed for a 1st down on 1st down; 60% on 2nd down; and 100% on 3rd down), you see that 5 of his 16 completions really didn't help the team/were failed completions. He had 7 failed completions in the first week and 4 last week. Roughly 30% of his completions on the year have been "failed" completions. Some may argue with the semantics of that, but I think football outsiders is on to something by looking at these completions that way. I mean, what is a better completion - a 2 yard completion on 3rd and 1 that converts a 1st down or a 17 yard completion on 3rd and 23 that gets you a punt? Then, you look at the secondary. Mark Sanchez played like puke the entire day, but he converted a 3rd and 7 in the 2nd quarter with a 19 yard gain to Jeff Cumberland, and only 3 of his 21 completions can be considered failed completions. Where Miami's secondary hurt them though was in the 4th quarterback when they gave up an 18 yard completion to Santonio Holmes on 2nd and 10 at their 40; an 18 yard gain to Holmes on 1st and 10; a 15 yard gain to Holmes on 3rd and 6; and the 66 yard pass to Kerley earlier in the game.
It was the recievers. There was a reason the dolphins ran soo much. They were not getting open. Tannehill made some bad passes but the recievers were not getting open. In this regard, qb ratings are slightly mis-leading. Sorry to say, the Jets secondary was also really good. Notice how all of the best teams have good receiers/ tight-ends. I tell you what, he had good pass protection. The interception Tannehill threw was probably based on teams starting to know his tendencies to throw to the sidelines.
It's worth tracking these metrics for Tannehill and our team. We know Philbin is. He mentioned QB rating differential in his opening press conference. Another big one to track that correlates very highly with winning is TD/INT ratio. The Houston game has Tannehill behind the 8 ball on that one. It should get better.
i'm frustrated with tannehill his deep ball sucks, if he throws that long ball to a wide open hartline better the game could have been over right there
I thought RT struggled at times, but he had no help. Armstrong with that BIG drop really made me angry! Hartline showed VERY little effort to me all game... he kept dropping his arms and giving up on routes. I love Fasano though, he gives 100%. If we could get that from everyone...
RT is going to make mistakes but that's part of the learning/growing process. The INT was a terrible pass. But, he has to be in there to learn from it. There were some opportunities where he made poor throws - the long completion to Hartline at the end of the game could have been an even bigger play had he hit him in stride. That's about accuracy. We'll see if that improves. Aside from that, the factor not being discussed in the OP is that the QB rating is very much a factor of the other team's D and how they shut down other weapons. When the running game tanked and the rest of the Jets D was better than Oakland, then of course his QB rating is going down (esp. when we don't have great WR's). But, to start Moore is not going to solve anything now or in the future. Moore is not likely to be much better in similar settings nor is Tannehill going to be a QB of the future if he is benched.
I wouldn't say his deep ball sucks. When Brian Hartline is your primary deep receiver, my guess is the percentages aren't going to be all that great. Yes, a better pass there wins the game, but you're talking inches. It wasn't a pass down the middle where Tannehill could put air under it and let Hartline run under it. It was a double-move, sideline throw. TL;DR the Dolphins need talent at WR
