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Why We Lost?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by NJFINSFAN1, Sep 23, 2012.

  1. thisperishedmin

    thisperishedmin Well-Known Member

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    ding ding ding we have a winner!

    Honestly, even if he chucked it up across the field on a whim to Bess, who's to say he doesn't drop it - and then we have another 160+ post thread with people ripping him for not sticking on the rollout and waiting on Hartline to get seperation at the sideline in the EZ hahaha
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    My problem with the idea of just chucking it to that side of the field completely blind to what is going on over there is that any of the defensive linemen on that side could have been in more of a spy role and seen Bess crossing, dropped back once Tannehill had scrambled away from that side.

    Tannehill wouldn't have really had any vision to see how far Revis was trailing Bess on the play either. And count me among the skeptics who believe it's wise for a QB generally speaking to throw a blind lob pass to a side of the field where you know you have Davone Bess in one on one man coverage with Darrelle Revis. You're asking to get that one picked off.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My Question is, when Bess has a pick route like that, shouldn't that be the first read in his progression...usually you run that play to score on that route??...are we saying that because of the blitzer getting some penetration, Tannehill had no choice but to skip Bess altogether?

    Because I didn't see the play I'm askin curious questions..
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've been trying to tell you the timing of the route's development rules Davone Bess out as your "first" read in the progression. You have to keep in mind the timing. His route took a while to spring him open.
     
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    This is going to show just how Xs & Os stupid I am, but I finally understand the importance of Marino's pocket movement.

    Its not that its because it kept him from getting sacked (I'm not that stupid that I didn't know that) its because it kept him from having to roll out.

    The debated Tannehill play (I have no idea if that was a designed roll out or not) shows that he couldn't have run to his left, he had pressure up the middle, he could only go right. When you roll out you're basically cutting out half to 2/3 of the field. Tanny would have to throw across his body while moving in the opposite direction.

    Dan on the other hand would have just dodged the middle pressure while staying in the pocket which would have allowed him to see Bess and deliver.

    Brett "Phone Pic of a Gray Dick" Favre, would have rolled out, jumped into the air and lobbed one to Bess. It would have been a TD or Int.

    So yeah, I just now understood that. Fire away.
     
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  6. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Exactly. Its about a 15-20 yd pass at most, he wouldn't even have needed to stop and plant his feet. Just lob it away from the defenders and let Bess run under it, TD. There seems to be some strawmen being built so I'll say it again, I dunno what the play/progression was and yes, Tanne found Hartline for a potential TD anyway. But there's no denying that Bess was wide open on the play.
     
  7. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    That's pretty much what I meant. Lie as in not be accurate to the average person looking at them. I guess lie isn't the right word though, you're right.

    The other thing people aren't realizing is that even if he stays in the pocket as I said earlier Bess WOULD NOT BE OPEN. Look at the backside linebacker people he is trailing Ryan as he boots. If he stays in the pocket he:

    1) Doesn't have Bess anyway as the linebacker would have picked up Bess underneath.
    2) Is most likely sacked (but let's assume he avoids it)
    3) Loses Hartline as well because there is 0 chance of him making a throw from the pocket to where Hartline was with that coverage.

    He made the right choice on the play.
     
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  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I don't think it's any shocker that in a thread called "why we lost," the discussion 160 replies out is revolving around Ryan Tannehill.

    Gonna be tough with a rookie quarterback folks! :)
     
  9. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy


    Tannehill is the best QB on the team and I wouldn't be surprised if Devlin ends up being 2nd. At least the OL is making strides every week in their protections. It's going to be tough because Lamar Miller is the 2nd most dangerous skilled position player on the roster.
     
  10. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    He might (and I stress might) be the best QB on the team, but he's a rookie, and right now he has the worst QB rating in the league.

    Hey we're all hopeful, and that's great, but when it comes right down to it we're getting the worst quarterback play in the league right now. So "why we lost" isn't too hard to figure out IMO.
     
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  11. gandalfin

    gandalfin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rookie QB + worst recevers in the league = worst QB in league
     
  12. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I would encourage you to check on whether that's supported by any objective, historical data.

    In the absence of that, it just looks like an excuse made by people whose goal is to preserve a positive opinion overall of Ryan Tannehill.
     
  13. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    A 3 game quarterback rating? If you're going to go there, why not look on the bright side? It's up 48% since game 1.
     
  14. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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  15. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    You people are poisoning the well again ever so slightly.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Well stated.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I would encourage you to check on the skill Ryan Tannehill is displaying by closely examining the games. You're making totally circumstantial arguments while refusing to review the quality of football being played. The guy is clearly being hindered by the players around him. It's clear as day.
     
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  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Thanks for pointing out a live action example of exactly what Alex44 and myself are talking about. Linebacker blitzed in too soon, didn't allow a late-developing route like Bess' to develop, would have been utterly stupid and risky for Tannehill to blindly lob the ball to an area of the field where he couldn't see if anyone was dropping on the underneath zone or where Darrelle Revis was in his man coverage, and so he made the right choice and threw what should have been a touchdown to Brian Hartline. Perfect illustration of exactly that. Thanks.
     
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  19. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    So what do you suppose would be happening differently if the players around him who you believe are hindering him were playing, let's say, average?

    And since you're talking about "closely examining" things, give specific examples if you would.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Sure, I'll give you some for instances. Right now Ryan Tannehill has suffered through the second highest drop percentage in the league. That's drops as a percentage of catchable passes (catches + drops). Only Blaine Gabbert has it worse right now. It's twice what I know to be the "normal" rate. He has 11 drops. If that were "average" then that would be only 6 drops.

    So let's say Brian Hartline doesn't drop that ball in the end zone that Tannehill did such a great job opening up for him by scrambling out and creating a lane to the perimeter. Suddenly you've got a 3 yard touchdown pass added to his statistics.

    In the Raiders game, Tannehill threw a well executed screen to Reggie Bush to the left side. Legedu Naanee is on that side. Let's accept that Legedu is not the greatest of receivers. Why is he on the field? TO BLOCK. That's his role. A much higher percentage of Legedu's snaps on the football field involve blocking than Hartline, Bess or Armstrong. If Legedu were even an AVERAGE player then he would be able to accomplish his minor specialized role, right? So let's say he blocks Shawntae Spence instead of letting him right through the swinging gates. I've seen it on the All 22, that screen pass is a touchdown. We had three blockers out front of Reggie Bush to block two guys. That play is a 57 yard touchdown if Legedu Naanee is even an AVERAGE player that can make good on his minor specialized roles.

    And what about the slant to Anthony Armstrong in the Jets game? Up 17-13 in the 4th quarter, on 3rd & 10, Ryan Tannehill sees a three-deep coverage with man under, he fits the ball beautifully between two defenders right into Anthony Armstrong's bread basket. Let's forget about the possibility of Anthony Armstrong doing something fantastic on this play. All he did was run his deep slant. The safety tried to undercut it from the front and the corner was trailing too much behind Armstrong to catch him if he simply catches the ball. Simply CATCH the ball, don't do anything superb, but just catch it, and this is an 86 yard touchdown. LaRon Landry (4.35) has the speed to catch Armstrong, but he bit so hard on trying to undercut the pass from in front that he would not have been able to recover, and Ellis Lankster (4.53 speed) is flat out slower than Armstrong (4.38). Just be an AVERAGE player and actually catch a ball that was perfectly (and I do mean perfectly) placed, and you're off to the races for an 86 yard touchdown.

    Let's revisit Legedu Naanee. Let's pretend that Legedu Naanee is even an AVERAGE player. When Ryan Tannehill throws him on the slant against the Texans, even an average player should be able to knock the ball down. Let's pretend this average player isn't capable of running the route correctly (which Naanee didn't), he should still be able to knock the damn ball down. Instead, Legedu ran his route wrong and then made no effort whatsoever to prevent the pass being intercepted. Average player and suddenly, that's an interception taken off Tannehill's stats.

    Charles Clay. He has only caught 1 ball this year, yet he has 2 drops. That's ludicrous. In the Texans game, on 2nd & 10, Charles Clay goes out for a pattern underneath. He gets wide open and Tannehill finds him for what should have been a 10 or 11 yard catch and run, but Clay just flubs the ball. You know what happened on the very next play? A 3rd & 10 instead of a 1st & 10 (or at worst a 2nd & 1), a play that features 5 wides, empty backfield against a zone blitz, instead of what you'd normally find on a 1st & 10 or 2nd & 1, Ryan Tannehill throws a ball toward Legedu Naanee which gets tipped up in the air by blitzing linebacker Brian Cushing, and it gets intercepted. If Charles Clay is even an average player and catches that ball with no RAC and just goes down to the ground for a 2nd & 1, that interception doesn't happen. Why? Because the offense would have been on schedule. When you go off schedule (1st & 15+ via penalty, 2nd & 8+, 3rd & 7+), there's a lot more pressure on your offense and that's when turnovers happen most often. It was no coincidence, none, that this interception came on 3rd & 10. If that's a 2nd & 1 or 1st & 10, it simply doesn't happen.

    Since we're trying to fill in those 5 fewer drops that would make Ryan Tannehill's skill position "average" then let's toss in Charles Clay's rather inconsequential drop on 3rd & 24 coming out of the backfield. Judging by the spacing, without doing anything special, he gains about 9 yards on the play. Daniel Thomas also has 2 drops even though he's only got 2 catches, which is a bad percentage, so let's pretend he caught that ball against the Jets on 3rd & 1 on a play that would have gained 7 yards. Who knows how that drive ends if they didn't have to punt it, but we'll not speculate.

    So tally it up. If the receivers unit catches instead of drops 5 more balls, which would put their drop rate at a NORMAL 9.2% (which is quite literally dead on for the steady long term average of the NFL), Ryan Tannehill's stat line suddenly looks like 59 of 102 (58%) for 777 yards (7.6 YPA), 3 TD, 2 INT, which is a respectable 84 passer rating considering he'd have just faced the Jets and Texans defenses, with 8 runs for 16 yards and 1 TD on top of that.

    You wanted specifics, those are specifics. If his unit was even average, he'd be looking a whole lot better.
     
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  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Drops are on receivers, not pace, I said this another thread, we don't have a three, a four, a five, or a six..

    That slant to Armstrong was a fantastic throw.
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I mean the drops I chose weren't coincidental. Some would say I chose them simply because they all would have resulted in big gains or touchdowns. Not necessarily. I tried to focus on drops that let down Ryan Tannehill after he'd done something good. On a 3rd & 1 he makes a good decision and a good enough throw to keep the chains moving, on a well designed and executed play, and Thomas just can't hang on. And Thomas also has 2 drops to 2 catches which is way out of line for any player. I can accept one drop on three catches because he's a tailback but two and two is not right.

    On a 2nd & 10 you're looking to pick up 8+ yards to at least get back on schedule if not get more, and Tannehill makes a good underneath check down to Clay to do just that and he drops it. On a 3rd & 24 you're obviously NOT going to get the 1st down so all you want to do is get the ball out to a player with some YAC possibilities so he can gain you about 10 yards of field position. He does that, but Clay can't hang on. And again with Clay two drops to one catch is just way, way out of line for an actual pass catching skill player which is what Charles Clay is supposed to be. He's not a blocking player, he's a pass catcher. That should be three catches with no drops.

    On the play we've been discussing for a hundred posts, Ryan gets a blitzing ILB and has to feel that rush and react to it, which he does. He rolls out and creates something that wasn't originally there. Brian Hartline catches that ball and the play is being dissected by some NFL Network or ESPN segment to show how good of a player Ryan Tannehill is even as a rookie. Instead, incomplete, and people are talking about how he missed Davone Bess on the play.

    That throw to Anthony Armstrong was fantastic, gunned in there right between two defenders, the kind of throw Marino always used to make. The ball is right in the bread basket, simply catch it and it's an 86 yard "kill" shot which puts the game out of reach for the Jets rather than staying in reach of overtime. Catch that ball and everyone is talking about what a "killer instinct" Tannehill possesses and how he puts away games...similar to what he did with his 4th quarter drive against the Raiders where he had a 21-13 lead, went 4 of 5 for 54 yards and a TD to put the game out of reach at 28-13. Suddenly Tannehill is not just really skilled and a good passer, he's also a "killer" as Omar likes to refer to it.

    And then with Legedu, I mean this is what you're looking for out of him. He's obviously not a world beating receiver that is going to make big impressive plays catching the football. We know that and that's ok, it doesn't prevent him being an "average" third or fourth receiver for a team. It's also clear though that the Dolphins view him as that all-around guy, the SMART player that also blocks and can do LITTLE THINGS. Those players are out there, the Greg Camarillos and those of their ilk. If you're an average player and this is the kind of player you are, you need to be able to do those little things, you need to be able to accomplish blocks, play smart heads up football, etc. The plays I talked about with Legedu Naanee were plays where he showed that he's not even close to an average player because he's in that role but can't even do those little things, can't even play smart, can't even block when he's supposed to be a good blocker. Those deficiencies let Ryan Tannehill down.
     
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  23. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And these observations are all well and good CK, and I appreciate them, but what about the plays in which the players around Tannehill have done their jobs well (or at least well enough), and he hasn't?
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The problem is, I haven't seen many of those plays. I really haven't. It's not like there are a bunch of plays out there where guys are getting wide open and Tannehill is missing them. It's not like he's out there throwing little check down passes that are going for huge gains because the guy who caught it made an awesome play. You're just not seeing that kind of stuff.

    And besides, you asked me to raise the level of play of the guys around him to an AVERAGE level, not a perfect or even above average level. I could pick out every single mistake every player has made, or really every time a player didn't do something that a very good player would have done, and point out how it impacted the play. But those instances would be far too numerous to list. You asked me to isolate the separation between bad and average. Average involves dropping only 6 passes instead of 11. Average involves Legedu Naanee being the limited player he is, but actually being able to do the little things that he's supposed to be able to do even as the limited player that he is.

    Let me give you an example of what I'm talking about. There's the deep pass Tannehill threw to Brian Hartline against the Jets, and Hartline caught it but he had to jump to where he couldn't keep running for the TD. You could say that's a play where Tannehill's lack of accuracy let Hartline down. Or you could say that Brian Hartline's being just about the only Z receiver in football with 4.52 speed let Tannehill down because Hartline had no ability to accelerate through and run under that football. It goes both ways on a play like that. People like to talk about hitting the outside shoulder on the outside verticals but when you see Mike Sherman talk about it he says he just wants the QB to get it somewhere between the numbers and the sideline. The receiver is supposed to do the rest by maintaining as much cushion to the sideline on his route as he can, and putting the defender "in jail" as Sterling Sharpe calls it by tracking the ball in the air and controlling your speed appropriately. For a ball that went 46 yards through the air with a low trajectory that helped make sure the defender couldn't recover, that looked like pretty reasonable placement to me and you'd hope your Z receiver was just a little bit faster than that so that he would catch it in stride and go for the overtime TD. It really cuts both ways on a play like that.
     
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  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have to say personally, what I'm doing this year in terms of how I'm evaluating Tannehill, is yes coming to my own conclusions, but allowing CKs work to come into play as well, he's watching this from such a good angle with the 22 tape, if he's happy with his progression, I think we have to respect the knowledge and the work being put in.
     
  26. Trowa

    Trowa A world of pain

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    I can't believe people are still talking about this. Gonna have to institute our own 24 hour rule.
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    All I really need to see from him are the combination of very few dumbstruck decisions, along with some really keen plays. I mean we sit here talking about how he "missed" Davone Bess on that play but to me that play is like prime example of what I would put in the column to show what kind of potential he has as a football player.
     
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  28. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    Bravo, post of the year in my book(but I know you'll eventually blow it away with something else possibly draft orientated). Just to add to the stat line with the normal drop rate Tannehill's record would also be 2-1 tying us for the division lead. Really damn respectable.
     
  29. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    i think it is sad that no Miami wr gets good publicity at all nor do they derserve iy. but when was the last game that miami had where we passed the ball really well and more then one wide receiver had a touchdown ? i know Lamar Thomas had a 3 touchdown game vs Denver from Dan the man but i dont think miami has had a three touchdown game by any wr since then. just once I wish miamicould make a honest effort to have more then one weapon on offense notably at wr or tightend.
     
  30. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I would think there are three kinds of plays we need to look at to evaluate the impact of Ryan Tannehill's supporting cast on his play:

    1) Plays where Tannehill does his job well, and the supporting cast does not.

    2) Plays where Tannehill does his job not well enough, and the supporting cast bails him out and makes good on the play.

    3) Plays where neither part of the team does well, but the statistical impact of the play is over-attributed to Tannehill because of the nature of the statistic (i.e., the tipped INTs in Houston).

    I would think the Hartline play is a prime example of the second of these types of plays. I don't think Hartline would've scored on the play had it been thrown perfectly, because there was a safety who had the angle on him, and I don't think Hartline would've collected himself in time to make a move on him, but I do think Hartline adjusted to a throw that could've been thrown better. You get a guy wide open on a double move, and you want to hit those plays with stud throws, obviously. It wasn't a terrible throw, but I do think it was an example of where the supporting cast helped Tannehill.

    Now, along those lines, how many plays have there been when a guy was open enough to catch a ball that was thrown well enough, but it wasn't thrown well enough, and it led to an incompletion or some other undesirable result? Personally I don't know, but I think a balanced evaluation of Tannehill and his supporting cast has to look at these things.
     
  31. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And I'm satisfied with what I'm seeing from him, too, but I have trouble believing he's only a supporting cast away from playing in a way that's atypical for a rookie QB. My subjective impression is that you could give him the greatest supporting cast in the league and he'd still be playing like a typical rookie right now, or perhaps only slightly better.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I totally disagree with that based on what I've seen.
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well here is the conclusion Joe Philbin is coming to at this point:

    And I'm sure you know the benefits he has that we don't in conducting these kinds of analyses.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What exactly do you think Joe Philbin just said in that statement that bears any significance?

    It was the most "say something without saying anything" explanation ever.
     
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  35. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    It's just media talk. What's he going to do? Throw his QB under the bus for no reason? Or falsely praise the play of the offense when they have unquestionably left big plays out on the field. There's nothing to read into there.
     
  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The significance as it pertains to this conversation is that he's attributing fault for the ineffectiveness of the passing game to both Tannehill and the supporting cast.
     
  37. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Everything he said about Tannehill could have been said about Moore last year. Tannehill doesn't have to be all-pro elite to be atypical of a rookie. Solidly average would fit as well.
     
  38. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well what the quote sure didn't say was that the passing game would be effective if it wasn't for Tannehill's supporting cast. If you trust Joe Philbin that Tannehill himself is partly in the way of having an effective passing game, IMO he's hardly playing like an atypical rookie QB. The typical rookie QB gets in the way of having an effective passing game.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    He essentially said "everyone needs to play better." Shocking.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Forget Moore, everything he said about Ryan Tannehill could be said about Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Phil Rivers, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    Essentially any offense whose point scoring capabilities have not been running completely optimally, no matter who is playing quarterback for them, you can say the same thing Joe Philbin said and it would be 100% accurate.
     

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