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Dolphins@Arizona notes and opinion

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Disgustipate, Sep 30, 2012.

  1. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    BTW, his production is increasing b/c he relies heavily upon play design and the QB's play b/c he lacks the ability that great receivers have to create on their own regardless of who is throwing them the ball.
     
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  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Tim Brown is a hall of fame player and Rich Gannon was a player who is much better than you are giving him credit for. Rich Gannon had two huge years before Rice.

    Plus, who is saying Hartline is great.
     
  3. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Hartline is taller than both Nicks and Cruz.
     
  4. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I think the point was Gannon does not become NVL MVP and 3 time AFC OPOY without those two HOF players, and both well past their prime, to throw to.
     
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  5. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    When one combines height with VJ capability, I doubt he is able to get higher off the ground than they can.
     
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  6. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    There are no excuses. Brian Hartline is making history before your eyes. You can try making analogies between Rich Gannon and Chad Henne, but that doesn't change the reality of what Brian Hartline is actually doing on the field.
     
  7. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yeah, Gannon had 2 huge years before Rice arrived b/c he had Tim Brown & James Jett at WR, Rickey Dudley at TE, and Jon Ritchie at FB.

    Prior to that, Gannon was a 12 year, 75.6 rated passer with only 66 TDs to 54 INTs, 56.9% completions, 134 ypg, and 6.3 ypa.

    Then, miraculously, in 4 years in Oakland with a mix of Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, Rickey Dudley, James Jett, Jerry Porter, and Charlie Garner, they suddenly elevated him to a 93.2 passer with 105 TDs to 44 INTs, 63.4%, 7.4 ypa, and 234 ypg. But just like his first 12 years, the following year saw Gannon drop back into the 70's with a 73.5 QBR, 55.6%, 5.7 ypa, 182 ypg, and less than 1 TD per game with Brown & Rice both hitting the wall (at 37 & 41 years old).
     
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  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I agree, he's doing a great job of racking up yards in an offense that utilizes him well and against defenses that don't seem to mind giving him the yardage, but he couldn't score more than once. Opposing teams know he's not a scorer so they likely don't mind giving him some of those receptions if it means not having to double him or shift coverage his way.

    James Jones caught 200 less yards than Hartline yesterday, but he scored twice..... and I'll take Jones's 56 yards and 2 TDs over Hartline's 253 yards and 1 TD all day long b/c in this offense we should be able to find guys who can gain yardage in the air as long as defenses are allowing it. Now, I'd like to see what Hartline does when defenses actually make him a priority.
     
  9. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Are you satisfied with Hartline as our top wideout?
     
  10. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    You'd like to see Bush, Thomas, Miller and half our OL all hurt? Eff u man!
     
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  11. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    I'd like to see better everything. Wake, Lane, and Pouncey are probably the only 3 players that could make an argument for being the best in the league at their respective positions.
     
  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    By all means lok at any independent research that would quantify Hartline's performance with Jones'. There is ample evidence that yardage-based efficiency is the signal, while TDs are the noise. "Racking up yards" is exactly what leads to scoring. Taking the ball from the 5 yard line to the 95 yard line is a lot more valuable than taking them from the 95 yard line to the endzone.
     
  13. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Exactly, and our offensive design allows for non-elite receivers like Hartline to have a 250 yard day, but when it counts the most (IE: putting points on the board), we fall short b/c Hartline, our top receiver, is not a scorer.... and neither is our 2nd best receiver.

    I'm sorry but I don't prioritize a guy gaining a ton of yards over a guy who can score, b/c this offense's design is set up to allow receivers to pick up yards and is extremely WR friendly in that regard. When Hartline is complimented by a guy who can make plays and score, his value of moving the ball between the 20's will increase.
     
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  14. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Again, you haven't proven "what counts most". You also haven't proven scoring to be a skill that is independent of yardage-based efficiency.
     
  15. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Why would you get slammed for telling your opinion and especially one thats pretty accurate?
     
  16. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You need both IMO. You need guys like Hartline and Bess, who can get you down the field reliably, and you need a stud go-to guy out there when you need a target in the end zone and a guy to go to when you absolutely need a play made, like Larry Fitzgerald was for the Cardinals yesterday.

    This is why, IMO, it's important to have Hartline and Bess in the roles they're best suited to, as #2 and #3 guys, rather than being miscast in the roles they're in, where they play well, but you have no playmaker to go to routinely for scores and big plays.
     
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  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Right, but when the field gets compressed (i.e., "the red zone"), at that point you need players who win physical battles against the opposition and get you into the end zone. Brian Hartline can't run a 10-yard comeback route when you're on the eight yard line. The CB will be squatting on that one at that point, and then you're relying on a physical characteristic Brian Hartline doesn't have.
     
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  18. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Who is the most prolific "get you down the field reliably" player in the NFL?
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Right, but not possessing certain characteristics does not preclude or ensure that any player will contribute X to the team. If Hartline is carrying the ball from the 5 to the 95, he is contributing more to the TD than the player that is carrying the ball from the 95 to the endzone.
     
  20. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    I think Hartline has already established that he is a very capable #2 Wr. I want this team to add a legit #1 next season because if they resign Hartline and with Bess, it would be a dangerous trio.
     
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  21. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just for, ya'know, reference...

    Brian Hartline is tied for second in the NFL in plays of >25 yards with 5 this season. The league leaders are Steve Smith and Torrey Smith with 6. He's got double(or more) than Desean Jackson, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace, Andre Johnson, etc.

    He's also 5th in the NFL in yards per catch with 18.20, and no one but AJ Green on the list has nearly the number of receptions he has so far.

    Too bad he got drafted in the 4th round otherwise that'd be pretty impressive, and is ineligible for the 2.5x yardage bonus points he gets for running a 4.40 or better.
     
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  22. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    He's done absolutely an excellent job. I would love nothing more than to see this continue but I think his run of huge games is nearing it's end real soon.
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Touchdowns, scoring, the thing that we've had problems with despite being able to move the ball between the 20's. Yards mean nothing if you cant put enough points on the board to win, and at the end of the day, it's the team with the most points that wins, not the most yards, evidence by by us having 183 more yards than Zona but 3 less points. Are you saying it's more important to rack up yards than it is to be efficient with those yards and put up points?
     
  24. finfaninilinois

    finfaninilinois Active Member

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    I cant really believe the is argument over Hartline - I like Hart but damn people some of you are talking like he is the second coming of christ - yes he is having a nice year largley because of 1 huge game and has already been targeted 48 times. If Brian Hartline is targeted 48 times ya know ya have problems.

    If he continues to have huge games then ya can talk about him being real good until then just be pleased he is playing the way he is.
     
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  25. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah sorry guys you're right it is pretty implausible that Brian Hartline could have improved and be pretty good I mean after all he was a 4th round pick and ESPN hasn't said his name a whole lot :dunno:
     
  26. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Based on combine numbers, combining height and VJ, he and Nicks should have about the same max vertical reach.
     
  27. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    The Atlanta Falcons put up 31 points/game while only having 365 yards/game (ranked 15th).
    The Bills currently rank 22nd in passing ypg but rank 1st in passing TD receptions. The Packers rank 15th in passing ypg but 4th in TD receptions.

    You don't have to prove anything. All you have to do is watch live action to see what playmakers can do compared to normal possession guys. You're trying to make it seem like you can only have one or the other (either scorers or yardage-based efficiency) when in fact you can have both, and right now we don't have both, and we don't have both b/c Hartline & Bess aren't playmaking scorers with the ability to create on their own merit outside of the play's original design.

    From what I've read, you've yet to prove that excessive yards equate to sufficient scoring in the absence of playmakers who are capable of getting in the endzone. And don't forget, playmakers like Cruz are also yardage-based efficiency guys b/c they can take a short pass and cover the entire field in a 75 or 99 yard TD in one fell swoop... and in the meantime they catch for 1000+ yards and help the offense move the ball up and down the field. The difference is that a guy like Cruz can do everything that Hartline can as far as yardage-based efficiency goes, except he can do it better and do it with defenses actually trying to stop him, and in between it all he has the ability to turn a handful of normal passes into game-changing touchdowns. What happens in the 4th quarter when we're trailing and defenses are geared to stop the pass? How are our yardage-based efficiency and scoring capacity with Hartline & Bess no longer being treated as an afterthought? If it's your final drive and you need 5 to win, does yardage-based efficiency mean anything if you can't stick it in the endzone?
     
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  28. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Who's saying he's not any good? Myself and others are simply saying that he is good, but it's the offensive design paired with a defense focusing on stopping Bush that allowed him to rack up those gaudy stats rather than b/c he's a top NFL receiver like Fitz, Wallace, Calvin, Andre, etc who still put up big numbers despite defenses keying on stopping them.

    If Hartline were anything more than a good receiver he would've had more than 1 TD with all those yards, and that's the point most of us are making. If a backup QB like Matt Flynn can throw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in a Philbin offense, then a decent but not great receiver like Hartline should be able to have a big day in it when defenses don't seem to be prioritizing stopping it.

    Hart's doing an outstanding job in this offense moving the ball and extending drives, but he's not a scorer, and as such there's still a missing aspect to his game that won't prevent us from trying to find a guy who can do more than Hartline can. IE: put points on the board.
     
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  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You are fabricating a label that doesn't exist. Who exactly is in this group of players that achieve high yards per target, but don't score TDs? A player that is achieving 9.5 yards for every target is by no means a possession receiver.

    This isn't difficult. We can use historical data to determine expected points based on down, distance, and field position. You can find the expected point values HERE. Now using this data, lets analyze this scoring drive from the second quarter of Sunday's game:
    Now lets look at who contributed to this TD, and how much. Miami had first and ten from their own 36, which is worth 1.6 expected points. Hartline then had a 57 yard reception, which took Miami to the Arizona 7 yard line. A first and goal from your opponents 7 yard line is worth 5.08 points, which means that Hartline's play was worth 3.48 expected points.

    Javorskie Lane ended up scoring the TD on this drive. His 1 yd run on 4th and goal was worth 1.92 expected points. He was credited with the TD. But his contribution to that TD was not as valuable as Hartline's contribution.
     
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  30. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Some people seem to think Hartline has come out of no where. I disagree. He's always been reliable. He's always been among the best in the league at making tremendous plays along the sidelines and has been awesome at drawing flags his whole career. I feel like he draws a PI or IC at least once a game.
     
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  31. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    WADR to your statistical prowess, Hartline's play(s) are far more likely to occur when ( b/c of our running game) the opposing defense is giving him a steady diet of 1 on 1 coverage with little or no safety help. Larry Fitzgerald, a HOF caliber WR was held in check for most of the day because our defense was focused on him. If Fitz was getting the types of coverages that Hartline was getting he'd have a million yards and 46 TDs per game.
     
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  32. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    No one has suggested he's come out of nowhere. OTOH some people are suggesting that his increased production is a talent based phenomenon, from watching the games that doesn't seem to be the case IMO.
     
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  33. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    Hartline is coming into his own as a contributor. But he is not a #1.

    A #1 does what Brandon Marshall did tonight. Get assigned a hot corner in Brandon Carr and then proceed to wipe his *** with him. Hartline's matchup versus Revis/Cromartie didn't go too well. Marshall has had big games versus both.

    When we do get a featured WR, Hartline will do just fine picking up the scraps that a #1 leaves him and joins the ranks of the Jordy Nelson's , Victor Cruz, etc...I hope.
     
  34. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Do those expected point values, when assigned to an individual player, take into consideration that it's harder to make plays in the red zone than it is elsewhere on the field?
     
  35. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I agree, but what we're saying is there are plenty of guys who can carry or catch the ball from the 5 to the 95 AND put it into the endzone. There's no reason you can't have both in the same player, and there's no reason for us to sell ourselves short in that regard. Hartline will still get his touches and still contribute, so I'm not sure why it's being debated.


    You mentioned how crappy QB play limited Hartline. How much would his 2011 stats of 35 catches, 549 yards, and 1 TD drop if Brian had been game-planned against every snap like CJ or Fitzgerald? Cut in half likely, if not more. Now how efficient would he be at moving the ball between the 5 and 95 when he's catching 20 passes for 280 yards and no TDs compared to Fitzgerald's 80 catches, 1411 yards, and 8 TDs in the same situation (bad QB and with defenses keying on stopping him)?

    If Miami had Calvin Johnson at WR verse Arizona and Zona showed him as little attention as they did Hartline, CJ would've posted 500 yards and 8 TDs yesterday; therefore what you're saying about Hartline and "yardage-based efficiency" is all relative. Meanwhile, if Hartline were game-planned against as if he were Calvin Johnson, he likely would've been shut out or close to it, so when you talk about "yardage-based efficiency" it really has to be placed in proper context.
     
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  36. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Guys like Victor Cruz and Larry Fitz have defenses focused on trying to stop them, but they still makes plays, move the chains, and in the process their presence allows receivers like Domenik Hixon to catch 6 balls for 114 yards one week, Ramses Barden's 9 for 138 another, and then Andre Robert's 6 for 118 and 2 TDs. Or look what Cincy's receivers are doing with AJ Green drawing so much attention.
     
  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    but he is a possession receiver if he excels at moving the chains but isn't reliable in the redzone, especially if the team is having difficulty putting points on the board in general.
    I understand what you're trying to say, and I don't disagree in nature; however, expected points doesn't necessarily translate to actual points b/c Miami still have to stick it in the endzone. Like I said, it's all relative. What would Hartline's expected points added look like if Zona or any defense actually treated him as a true #1 receiver and game-planned to stop him? For his EPA to mean anything, we'd first have to be operating optimally on offense to get a solid gauge on it, but we're not so any data is inherently flawed from the start.

    ... and how many TDs have our main 2 WRs combined for during their careers? 17 total TDs in a combined 7 years and 4 games. Calvin Johnson did that in 1 season.

    This is a passing league where teams are throwing more TDs than ever before, no? If they can't score TDs in a passing league that favors the receiver, then I don't care how efficient Hartline & Bess are at moving the ball from the 5 to 95 verse single coverage where defenses are basically giving it to us b/c they care more about stopping Bush.


    Again, I'm more concerned with being more efficient at scoring than I am about efficiently gaining yards, and as such I'd happily sacrifice 80-100 yards per game if it meant an extra TD or so. If we're efficiently moving the ball between the 20's but are having trouble putting it in the endzone, then we're not really being efficient, are we.
     
  38. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Exactly. IMO Hartline's great day is more of a testament to just how bad our receiving corps is, paired with Philbin's offensive design, than Hartline having amazing talent or the sort. Defenses fear our receivers so little that they'll give up stuff to Hartline if it means keeping Reggie in check.

    Despite those 431 passing yards we had only 5 receptions for 69 yards in 12 attempts on Zona's side of the field, so how efficient does that make us once we cross midfield?

    How efficient is Hartline inside the redzone where he has 0 catches despite 15 passes being attempted?

    What about his 12 catches for 187 yards with 5, 6, and 6+ defenders on the line according to SI.COM? Does that say much other than what you're stating about not facing tough coverage?
     
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  39. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Here's Hartline's targets and catches:

    1st target: EASY 7 yard catch on slight drag across middle. No one picks him up. Great play design. Busted coverage.
    2nd: 1 on 1 vs Peterson. 12 yard comeback off playaction. Outstanding throw. Great catch.
    3rd: Inc. Couldn't haul in the short pass behind him. Bad throw.
    4th: 1 on 1 verse Jamel Flemming. EASY 13 yard deep out verse a major cushion. Poor coverage.
    5th: 1 on 1 vs Peterson, redzone. Incomplete. No match against PP on the fade.
    6th: 1 on 1 vs Peterson. 2 yard quick pass, no YAC.
    7th: 1 on 1 vs William Gay. No help over top. 57 yards. Solid route & fake.
    8th:
    off zone coverage on 3rd & Goal from the 20. Zona gives up EASY underneath for 19 yards. Stopped short.
    9th: 1 on 1 vs Toller. EASY 6 yard quick out vs off coverage.
    10th: 1 on 1 vs Peterson. Peterson gets caught looking into the backfield when Tannehill breaks free from a sack and appears like he might scramble. Tanny then drops it over Peterson for 30 yards. Great play by Tanny.
    11th: 1 on 1 vs Toler. Drag across middle, 11 yards. Terrible coverage. Great play design.
    12th: 1 on 1 vs Toler. Toler INT as Hartline slips on crucial 3rd & 7. Blown drive.
    13th: 1 on 1 vs Toler. EASY 8 yard quick slant vs off coverage.
    14th: 1 on 1 vs Toler. 80 yard TD. Deep cross where Bess essentially picks Toler and Adrian Wilson get's caught in no man's land. Absolutely terrible coverage vs an outstanding play call. Zona's secondary was completely clueless on the play. All Hart had to do was run across the field and make sure to not drop the pass it was so gift-wrapped for him.
    15th: 1 on 1 vs Toler in all out blitz. 8 yard slant. Great pass.
     
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  40. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Couldn't agree more. I see what DPate and other are trying to say, and I agree that Hartline is playing very well. Not well for a 4th round pick, well period. Time will tell us how much BH is viewed as a threat as future DCs show him more, less, or the same amount of attention that's he's received so far.

    Either way I look forward to Irish upgrading the position so that DCs don't even have the option of focusing on Hartline, or Bess.
     
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