1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Dolphins@Arizona notes and opinion

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Disgustipate, Sep 30, 2012.

  1. Gitrdone

    Gitrdone New Member

    693
    217
    0
    May 22, 2009
    Canada EH!
    Brandon would have dropped that, you all know it!!
     
  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    By all means, if you're argument has denigrated to "teams arent trying" to stop the NFL's leading receiver, have at it.
     
  3. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Yes, they do. They are based off historical results. I.E. teams have had 500 possessions at their opponents X yard line and on average those have resulted in Y points.
     
    shouright likes this.
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    This is a theory. But there is no evidence that putting the ball in the endzone is a skill independent of the skill to take the ball from the 95 to the 5.
     
  5. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Well,
    For Hartline's career, he has 134 catches, 2125 yards, 6 TDs, and 98 1st Downs in 243 pass attempts.
    That amounts to:

    • 1 TD per 354 passing yards
    • 1 TD per 40.5 attempts
    • a 1st Down per 2.48 attempts
    • either a TD or 1st Down per 2.33 attempts.
    At Miami's current rate of 243 passing YPG and 35.8 pass attempts per game, the above performance equates to:
    • 0.7 passing TDs per game or 11 TDs per season (based on 1 TD per 354 yards x 16 games. Roughly the worst in NFL)
    • 0.9 passing TDs per game or 14 TDs per season (based on 1 TD per 40.5 attempts. Also good for near worst in NFL)
    • 14 first downs per game (good for 8th in the NFL)
    For comparison,
    Santonio Holmes has caught 1672 yards, 15 TDs, and 85 1st downs in 237 attempts since 2010 [from Sanchez of all people]. That's:
    • 1 TD per 111 yards
    • 1 TD per 15.8 attempts
    • 1 1st Down per 2.79 attempts
    • either a TD or 1st Down per 2.37 attempts.
    At our current rate of 243 ypg & 35.8 attempts/game, that equates to:
    • 2.2 TDs per game or 35 per season (good for near tops in the NFL)
    • 12.8 1st downs per game (good for 12th in the NFL)

    When looking at the above stats or just by watching Santonio Holmes and other playmakers in action, you can obviously see that putting the ball in the endzone is a separate skill to itself. What's the excuse for Hartline only having 1 TD per 354 yards? Would you call that "efficiency"? Or, respectfully, will you say it's ok for him to not be efficient b/c someone else can pull up the slack? Considering our 2nd best receiver, Bess, catches 1 TD every 270 yards, I'm not sure who you believe will be pulling up the slack on a daily basis? It can't be Fasano b/c he averages just 1 TD every 4 games. So basically, we'd have to run the ball in if we want to be scoring efficient, but that likely won't be effective b/c it's no secret our receivers pose little threat in the redzone, hence defenses can focus more on stopping the run since we're essentially 1 dimensional in the redzone.


    BTW, that's just Santonio Holmes. The list of receivers is lengthy where the scoring efficiency is significantly higher than just 1 TD every 354 yards while the 1st down efficiency remains roughly the same. It seems like you're trying to make it seem like Hartline is the only efficient & dependable receiver in the NFL between the 20 yard lines, making it ok that he rarely scores points.
     
    Alex44 and GMJohnson like this.
  6. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Of course the other side of that denigrated argument is that Hartline is leading the NFL in receiving in spite of the fact that "teams are trying" to stop him. In which case I'd ask, what are these teams doing to try and stop him?
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    This by no means proves what you believe it proves. I dont believe you have a firm grasp of what I am saying.
     
  8. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,810
    8,965
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    I'm vocal about my dislike of Hartline. There are a LOT of fundamental flaws in his game and almost every big play he makes is a busted coverage, prevent zone (allowing chunks underneath) or an extended play.

    You will never see Hartline make a play based solely on his physical ability, especially with any consistency. Yes he runs a nice double move but that takes an eternity to develop downfield and isn't something you can go to often.

    I've at least seen Bess get some nice YAC and make guys miss in the open field. On the other hand I've seen at least 3-4 plays Hartline could have put up seven but his lack of physical ability prevented it.

    Hartline is a good #2 guy but even in that role I don't honestly like him. I want a guy who can create separation on more than one route and double move based on that one route.
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  9. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

    5,659
    5,268
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    NJ
    I'm sorry, but I strongly disagree with the bolded

    Hartline has made countless catches on the sideline where I actually don't believe he was able to not only catch the ball over the blanket coverage, but able to get both of his feet down in bounds. It seems like he's doing it on a weekly basis, dating back to last year. His highlight catches are starting to really stack up.

    I'm in the camp that thinks that now that this guy has an aggressive QB, and is getting targeted, then he can be a top receiver. It's no coincidence that when these two things were put in place that his production has immediately sky-rocketed (with hardly any practice). As has Bess's production
     
  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    I get what you're saying, and there are obviously many, many cases where yardage efficiency translates or correlates to higher points, only this isn't one of those cases, as I've demonstrated. Yardage is still yardage, and scoring is still scoring. You can gain all the yards you want, but that doesn't necessarily translate to scoring efficiency if you don't have guys capable of putting 6 on the board from inside the 20 where the field shrinks, just as scoring from 20 yards in means little if you don't have guys capable of moving the ball between the 20's.

    Yes, I don't dismiss that yardage efficiency translates to points, but that doesn't mean causation exists. FGs count as points. You could successfully move the ball up and down the field all game, amass 500 yards and not punt once, but what if yardage efficiency translates to nothing more than 7 field goals, meanwhile your opponent is half as efficient yardage-wise but twice as efficient at scoring, and as such they score less often but win the game 24-21 b/c 3 of their scores are touchdowns?

    How about when we lost to the Colts in '09? That's a great example.
    In 9 drives each, Miami had the better yardage-based efficiency with roughly 50 more yards, a 2 to 1 first down advantage, 30% better 3rd Down efficiency, 2 less punts, and a 3 to 1 time of possession advantage....... but we still lost b/c we couldn't put it in the endzone and Indy could... and they did it despite Miami expecting the pass.


    Added, in the past few years, how many times have we gotten a turnover on the opponents's side of the field where we weren't in need of "yardage based efficiency" but rather needed a playmaker capable of scoring, and ended up settling for FGs b/c of it?
     
  11. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    I agree. It's nice that Hartline can make some of those plays when the defense gives it to him, but I don't like the fact it's happening b/c a defense is taking away our #1 weapon [Bush] b/c they know Hartline can amass a lot of yards but few points.

    No disrespect to Hartline, but I'd rather have a receiver who can put up yards AND points with defenses actually trying to stop him so that Bush can still be the electrifying Reggie we've grown to love prior to Zona focusing on shutting him down. Any day of the week I'll take a productive Reggie playing a defense that's forced to play us straight up rather than a productive Hartline b/c the opposing defense is focused on stopping Reggie and happily giving up the pass instead.

    The 57 yard pass to Hartline was a double move, 1 on 1 vs William Gay [who's nothing special IMO] with no safety help over the top. If the protection wasn't there, that completion doesn't get made b/c the double move takes some hesitation and b/c Hartline's lack of elite speed calls for Tanny holding the ball a fraction longer b/c Brian cant run under passes the way a great speedy vertical threat can.

    The 80 yard TD was all on play design and took forever to develop b/c Tanny had to wait for Brian to cross the entire field. I don't have a problem with 80 yard TDs or Hartline being a compliment to the vertical game, but I certainly, like yourself, don't want our vertical game entirely dependent upon play design, double-moves, and perfect route running rather than a guy who can actually get down field and make a play down field on his own merit whom Hartline could in turn compliment.


    Most of the other receptions came vs either Jamell Flemming (a rookie nickel corner) or Greg Toler (a backup corner who didn't see a snap in 2011). All the receptions were verse either 1 on 1 coverage or soft zone.... and half of those verse man were easy, high-percentage catches against off coverage.... and 3 of the remaining catches vs man were either due to busted coverage or Tanny making a play in the pocket that influenced the DB. So much of the credit IMO goes to play design and Tanny's adjustments at the line, but Hart still deserves great credit for executing (outside of the slip/fall/INT and inability to score in the redzone).

    I do give credit to Hartline b/c I believe he took more from Zona than they intended to give up, but they still basically gave it up to him rather than Hartline actually taking it.
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    but before the Colts that has never happened before and it hasn't happened since. The Colts is one of those games that is the exception of the exception. Kind of like when the Texans beat the Steelers when the Steelers had 10x the amount of yards or when the Colts beat the Buccaneers by scoring two touchdowns in 2 minutes.
     
  13. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    I strongly disagree. His "highlight catches" are starting to improve from completely mediocre to now average..... but he's still doing it vs lesser coverage most of the time compared to the NFL's legitimate playmakers who do it regardless of coverage. The day a defense has to worry about rolling more coverage Hartline's way or doubling him up is the day you'll see those "highlight catches" drop to virtually nill unless it's due to play design.

    Yes, he's definitely improved to where he could be a decent #2 receiver we can win with, but he's more of an accent piece/product-of-the-system rather than a primary one b/c his success is greatly dependent upon whether or not the defense chooses to give it to him as well as dependent upon how good the corner is who's playing him 1 on 1. I want Reggie Bush to continue being the playmaker he's shown he can be, but for that to happen we need a receiver who is good enough to make Hartline our 2nd best guy.... 3rd best would be more ideal. If James Jones were in this offense and shown the same relaxed coverage that Hartline saw yesterday, he would've had a massive day, too, except he probably would've scored more than once.... and Jones is the #3/#4 in GB with a 2nd rounder nipping at his heels.
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    That was simply an extreme example to make a point, but it has happened before, and it's happened since.... and it will continue to happen until we get a player or two capable of helping us convert drives into TDs rather than FGs [or missed FGs that in turn become shorter field opportunities for our opponent].

    It happened Sunday for crying out loud where we had 183 more yards, better 3rd down efficiency, 2.3 more yards per play, 3.5 more minutes of TOP, 22 less penalty yards, and significantly more efficiency moving the ball between the 20's..... but Zona's offense performed better on the opponent's side of the field going 4 for 8 with 3 TDs & 1 FG compared to Miami's 3 for 6 with 1 TD & 2 FGs. We both had a 50% scoring success rate in opponent territory, except Zona turned 2 less trips into 11 more points.
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Again, I dont think you are grasping the point. The Colts' game is a terrible example because the Colts were the more efficient team, not Miami. The Colts averaged 10.2 yards per play, while Miami averaged 4.8. You literally refuted your argument and made mine for me.
     
  16. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Their 10.2 to our 4.8 doesn't correlate to anything in this case b/c 239 of our 403 yards were on the ground compared to Indy's 61 of 356, and passing & running efficiency are obviously going to look different as far as yards per play go as we both know. Indy doesn't get efficiency credit just b/c they had a 2:1 pass/run ratio, where as Miami rushed 16 times more than we threw it. Running the ball 49 times for 239 yards despite no run over 19 yards is massively efficient.

    Indy's gaudy 10.2 yards per play actually proves my point b/c 128 of those yards came on 2 TD receptions to 2 playmakers against a defense that was actually focused on trying to stop it no less. If you take away those 2 big scores, Indy's yards per play dropped 3.3 yards to 6.9, where as, if you took away our long gains of 21 & 19, our yards per play only dropped 0.38. That leaves you with an Indy offense in a 2:1 pass/run ratio gaining 6.9 yards per play verse an offense that averages 4.4 with a crazy 49 rushing attempts. In this case, 4.4 trumps 6.9 when factoring in 3rd down efficiency & having 2 less punts despite the same number of drives (9 each).

    To make matters worse, we got the ball back on our own 18 with 3:18 left to play, trailing 27-24. Proving my point further, we efficiently moved the ball down the field from our 18 to Indy's 30, but once again lacked the ability to score TDs, and Chad Pennington (apropos to this debate) was picked off in the endzone by a pass thrown to none other than Brian Hartline.
     
  17. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Of Indy's 9 drives that game, 5 resulted in scores.
    Of Miami's 9 drives, 5, too, resulted in scores. (Although it would've been 6 scores if all we needed was a FG on the final drive)


    The difference was Indy turned more of those 5 scoring drives into TDs than FGs, leaving us the team fighting for a last minute win. We were more yardage efficient, hence the 5 scores in 9 drives with the opportunity for a 6th, and if we were as scoring efficient as Indy we would've been in position to win the game with a last second FG rather than being left trailing by 4 with a 30 yard desperation attempt to Hartline to try and win it.
     
  18. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

    13,057
    8,875
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Hamilton, Ontario Canada
    I love how Hartline takes the blame for a lack of receiving TDs. A problem this offense has had before he even got here. Very flawed argument.

    We knew coming into the season that this offense would be very beneficial to Hartline. Folks forgot that when he was injured in preseason.

    Folks also keep stupidly banging in the #1 WR thing. Its not going to happen here. The #1 WR in Philbins offense is going to be the single covered guy. So if teams want to double Hartline....go right ahead. Eventually we will have the weapons to spread it around and make them pay for it. The whole reason for a WCO is so you don't have to find those rare guys who command double teams a lot.

    So just be happy that this offense with WRs everyone was ragging on is probably going to put up a 1000 yard WR. So who cares if he's not your prototype wet dream.
     
  19. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

    42,442
    24,982
    113
    Jul 6, 2012
    NC
    Not having a #1 WR doesn't mean you don't need to upgrade the talent at WR, including Hartline.
     
  20. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

    13,057
    8,875
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Hamilton, Ontario Canada
    I agree with upgrading at WR....however Hartline is just fine. As this offense gets better so will his # of Tds. Hartline is a very solid WR to have in a WCO. He has deceptive speed and gives you an excellent sideline target. Plus he keeps his mouth shut for the most part and beyond one minor off field mishap he keeps the focus on the field.

    What this offense could use is a guy who has just enough speed to scare safeties and physical enough to create YAC. The guy who takes the 6 yard pass and turns it into 25. Then put Bess back to being the guy who finds the soft spot in the middle of the field.

    That would be a nice 3 set. Then its just a matter of finding that seam TE. Honestly I would like to see a TE that is our big TD threat inside the 10.
     
  21. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    I think the general mood is a positive one. We haven't had a "fire Ireland" thread for at least 3 or four days now, and people are realizing that we don't have a talentless group of scab players or a piece of ish GM. A major upgrade from the consensus during training camp and the preseason. The next step is going from a decent to good to great. A big part of that is adding skill guys, especially on the outside, WR and DB.

    I think you're misinterpreting the meaning of a #1 WR in a WCO. IMO it means not gearing the offense to any one particular WR. It does not mean you don't need WRs who have #1 WR talent.
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  22. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    Hartline is "just fine" as long as he's getting soft zone and man w/ no safety help while teams focus on stopping the run game, sure. But he's not a play maker. You cant just line up and throw him the ball and expect a big play. He doesn't dictate coverages or require extra attention. He's more likely to fall down w/o being touched than break a tackle in the open field. He's a great guy to have on the team, but I'm anxiously waiting for him to take his proper spot on the depth chart, at #3 or 4.
     
    ToddPhin likes this.
  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    No team has ever lost a game before that game with having over 45 minutes of time of possession.
     
  24. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

    13,057
    8,875
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Hamilton, Ontario Canada
    We'll this thread is so getting bookmarked. Couple people are going to be eating serious crow by the end of the season.
     
    Alex13 likes this.
  25. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Wat?

    OK, you think Hartline is an average receiver but that bolded part is just ridiculous. His sideline catches over the last 2 seasons have been anything but mediocre or average, they have been outstanding.
     
  26. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    Ireland isn't being guided by Philbin or his staff. Ireland has final say over personnel. He's making the decisions. Philbin has continually deferred questions about personnel for that reason.

    That 2nd round pick is in Ireland's hands. We've seen what this franchise does with 2nd round picks, and the players they've selected with those picks aren't very valuable at all.
     
  27. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    31,608
    55,634
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I'm really kind of curious what performance level Brian Hartline and Davone Bess need to get to before what they do on the field actually counts and isn't written off as Mr. Magoo style bungling incompetence that magically translates into serendipity.

    I'm looking forward to see if Brian Hartline slips on a banana peel for 100+ yards at 20 yards a catch this week.
     
  28. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    95 Madden rating under the "jump ball" category.
     
    Paul 13 and GMJohnson like this.
  29. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

    47,525
    72,483
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Miami, Florida
    so it's settled.

    The mount rushmore of receivers is now: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Brian Hartline.
     
    Paul 13, ToddPhin and ckparrothead like this.
  30. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

    5,659
    5,268
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    NJ
    I get what you guys are saying. And I'd have to say I agree with you. It's not a coincidence that once Hartline obtained more targets and a more aggressive offense/QB that he's now performing like a top WR. I see no reason to believe it cannot continue. So I couldn't be happier. Same goes for Bess.

    BUT....I just think a lot of people need to see it sustained for more than a 4 game period. If he keeps producing like this midway through the season, people will come around. They need consistency, and I can't really blame them for that. I don't think it has anything to do with being white, not being a first round fantasy pick, being a 4th round pick, or running a 4.5 40
     
  31. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

    14,291
    5,841
    0
    Jan 27, 2010
    -Obviously Ireland has final say on personnel decisions, but It'd be pretty silly for a GM to hire a Head Coach and then not listen to said HC's opinions on what types of players he needs/wants and/or who should and should not be on the team.

    -After 5 drafts we have 3 2nd round picks starting, SSmith, Koa Misi & JMart with DThomas a solid backup. Henne and Merling are backups with Jax and Green Bay, and 2 2nd rounders were spent to acquire Brandon Marshall. The only 2nd rounder who was a total waste was Pat White. No, I'm not defending Ireland. I'm just pointing out how wrong you are :wink2:.
     
    CWBIII, ToddPhin, MrClean and 2 others like this.
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

    22,845
    8,861
    0
    Dec 13, 2007
    For me the issue is that Philbin has said he wants a passing offense a la Green Bay. If that's what they're striving for here, then the appropriate way to develop that at the wide receiver position, IMO, is to get a guy who has legitimate 4.3 speed and can threaten defenses downfield, which would move Hartline to the possession role and Bess to the slot.

    That doesn't mean Hartline and Bess are playing poorly, or that Ireland has screwed up at the wide receiver position. It's just the best way to move forward with that personnel IMO, rather than keeping Hartline as your downfield guy and Bess your possession receiver.
     
  33. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    I think his point was, what does Hartline need to do in order to prove he can threaten defenses downfield? What exactly are you measuring this ability by? What metrics support Hartline as a "possession" receiver? He is near the top of the league in YPT, and plays of 20+ yards, what exactly more do you need to see?
     
  34. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,810
    8,965
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    I need to see Hartline successfully beat someone downfield on a play that isn't broken coverage or a double move (which is unreliable as it takes an eternity to develop) off of the only route he can successfully run.

    Hint: It will never happen.
     
  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    By all means, please feel free to share the metrics on this.
     
  36. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    When did anyone say Hartline is a top-5 WR???
     
  37. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

    10,191
    4,187
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Bradenton,FL
    He has done it multiple times this year but we just failed to complete the ball. You can't discount those plays just because they weren't completions.
     
  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

    44,356
    22,480
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Before this season he was doing it as well. Now that he has an accurate QB, his ability is being put to good use.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Sigh.

    If you think Ireland isn't finding players that Philbin's mold, then its really pointless to further a discussion with one so naive.
     
    Alex13 and ToddPhin like this.
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    I agree with your post. Except I think SS was a 4th. Maybe I'm wrong.
     

Share This Page