I guess it all depends on your definition of a vertical threat. Respectfully, IMO, if you want the "threat" label attached to a player, then he should be just that, a threat, not just a guy who can occasionally pick up chunk yards (especially if it's b/c defenses are most often affording him coverage w/o any safety help). I'd say at least half the receivers on the below list see bracket coverage quite often, but despite this they've produced in the vertical game more often. IMO, it's a disservice to all the receivers on this list who are legitimate vertical threats to lump Hartline in with them. There are a lot of running backs in the NFL capable of breaking one off on occasion but that doesn't necessarily make them a home-run threat. I compare Hartline to his peers as well as factor in what type of coverage he typically sees compared to them. Then I look at the traits involved with being a legitimate deep threat: ability to go from point A to point B before the defender (either via speed or route running... or both), tracking ability, hands, ability to convert passes that aren't accurately placed, ability to convert a contested pass (including high-pointing or physically dominating the defender), ability to convert the catch to points, and the ability to break up a potential INT. The below stats looks at how many receptions each receiver has on throws of 31+ yards, 21-30 yards, and total TDs & yards on those throws. I used ESPN, from 2009 - present (with a few noted exceptions). The stats are updated through week 3, so these are what I used. .............throws of 31+ yards...... 21-30 yards..... TDs........ Yards Wallace ..................... 2 26....................................... 11................ 20 ............. 1539 DeSean Jackson........ .. 25......................................... 7................ 10 ............. 1460 Marvin Harrison.......... 16 ...................................... 16 ............... 14 ............. 1289.... ('04-'06) Randy Moss................. 18....................................... 10................ 17 ............. 1171 ... ('07-'09) Vincent Jackson.......... 13....................................... 17................ 10 ............... 946 ... (39 games) Andre Johnson............. 13....................................... 14.................. 7.............. 1045 ... (39 games) AJ Green ....................... 10......................................... 5.................. 6................ 609 ... (20 games) Calvin Johnson............ 14....................................... 14................ 13 ............. 1124 Meachem...................... 18.......................................... 8................ 15 ............. 1090 Torrey Smith.................. 8.......................................... 6................... 5 ............... 376 ... (19 games) Jennings........................ 12....................................... 12................... 9 ............. 1041 Steve Smith ................. 13....................................... 12................... 8 ............... 979 Burress.......................... 14........................................ 10................ 10 ............... 945 ...(2005-2007, 3 full years before the shooting) Nicks............................. 10........................................ 16.................. 8 ............... 942 Fitzgerald....................... 9........................................ 17.................. 8 .............. 795 Malcolm Floyd........... 11........................................ 14.................. 5 ................941 Maclin............................ 9........................................ 14.................. 9 ................845 Marshall......................... 9........................................ 14.................. 5 ................825 Braylon Edwards ..........9.. ......................................14 ................10 ............... 878 ... (first 48 games) Wayne.......................... 12.......................................... 9................... 8 ............... 704 Denarius Moore............ 6.......................................... 2................... 4 ............... 360 ... (15 games) Manningham................. 8... .....................................16 ............... 11.................869 Brandon Lloyd............11........................................ 10.................. 6 ................ 771 ... (36 games) Britt................................ 8 ........................................ 10 ................. 5 ................ 452 ... (32 games) Garcon........................... 8......................................... 10.................. 9 ................ 622 Dez................................. 7........................................... 7.................. 5 .................409 ... (30 games) Julio Jones.................... 4........................................... 4.................. 2 .................302 ... (17 games) Sidney Rice.................. 8............................................5.................. 3 .................662 ... (34 games) Jordy Nelson................ 7........................................... 7...................7 ..................603 ... (2011 alone) Nate Washington ....... 5......................................... 15.................. 7 ..................821 Colston ........................ 3......................................... 17.................. 8 ................. 646 Bowe ............................ 4......................................... 14.................. 8 ..................600 Roddy White............... 8........................................... 7.................. 8 ..................511 Santana Moss ............. 7........................................... 8 ................. 7 ...................591 ... (30-33 years old) Miles Austin ............... 5......................................... 10 ..................8 ................. 586 Boldin........................... 6........................................... 8.................. 5 ................. 464 James Jones ..............4. 4......................................... 11 ................ 9 ..................650 Devery Henderson... .44......................................... 10 ................ 4 ..................605 Mike Williams............. 3......................................... 11 ................ 5 ..................457 ... (35 games) Crabtree......................... 8........................................... 4................. 4 ................. 480 Breaston........................ 6........................................... 9...................1 .................486 Harvin............................ 5........................................... 8.................. 6 ... .............460 ... (mostly a slot receiver) Holmes...................... ..33..........................................10 ..................8 .................409 Mark Clayton (Rams)..7........................................... 4.................. 5 ..................452 ... (1st 3 years) Hartline......................... 6........................................... 7 ................. 0 ..................497 ... Louis Murphy.............. 4........................................... 8.................. 3 ..................448 Lance Moore................ 3........................................... 9.................. 6 ................. 407 Massaquoi.................... 3........................................... 9.................. 3 ................. 425 Hines Ward................... 3........................................... 9.................. 1 ................. 426 ... (33-35 yrs old) Driver ............................ 3 .......................................... 5 ................. 2 ................. 526 Jacoby Jones ............. 44........................................... 5 ................. 4 ................. 342 Mike Thomas............. 22......................................... 10 ................ 2 ................. 353 Mike Jenkins................ 2........................................... 8 ................ 2 ................. 342 Austin Collie................ 1......................................... 10 ................ 4 ................. 363 ... (41 games) Kevin Walter................ 2........................................... 6 ................. 3 ................. 260 If you consider Hartline a vertical threat, then what does that make Mike Wallace who quadruples Hartline's production despite defenses actually paying him extra attention? An extra super ooper duper vertical threat?
Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers.....i see a lot of good QB's throwing the balls for the top guys actually if you look at ALL the names...who had worse QB play than Hartline ?
If Roethlisberger, Vick, Rivers, and Manning were the reason those receivers were successful they wouldn't be getting paid $10 million/year. Those guys make that kind of money b/c they still produce even when defenses are focusing extra attention on them and even when passes aren't pinpoint perfect. Hartline needs great QB play b/c he doesn't have the Mike Wallace/Jacoby Ford-like ability to run under a pass that would normally be overthrown to any other receiver, nor the tracking ability like DeSean Jackson to chase down off-target throws to the inside or outside, nor the sheer physical size of Flloyd to box out a DB and create enough separation with his body to make a play, nor the highpoint ability of Brandon Lloyd to go up over a DB in tight coverage. At least 30 guys on that list can do a combination of these things that help make up for poor QB play or an inaccurate pass since not even Tom Brady is on target downfield every throw. Marvin Harrison was one of the greatest vertical threats in the history of the game. Brandon Lloyd put up most of those numbers with the backup caliber QB Kyle Orton, not Brady. Brandon Marshall had 2 years in Miami. Fitz has had nothing at QB the past 36 games. Calvin Johnson has had 1 year with solid QB play. AJ Green was with a rookie QB. Torrey Smith put up his numbers with Flacco at an 80.9 QBR. Steve Smith had only 16 games with good QB play. Vick is not that special of a passer to make Maclin & Jackson look good. They make him look good. Nate Washington hasn't had anything at QB. Denarius Moore, Britt, Bowe, Santana Moss? They produced with mediocre QB play AND they receive extra attention from safeties. Malcolm Flloyd earns $3.25 million/year BECAUSE of his vertical ability which accounts for nearly half his production. ... and if Roethlisberger were the driving reason behind Wallace's success then 2nd rounder, Limas Sweed, would still be playing in the league.
Nice work, it's a little too bad they aren't sorted in some way because it's a tad bit hard to compare players but that isn't your fault. I can't imagine how long it would take to actually sort the list I think you hit the nail on the head when you said a deep threat should be....a threat. I think I said the same thing earlier in this thread or another one related to it. The fact is that Hartline doesn't command safety attention over the top. A deep threat opens up the underneath game and I don't think anyone can say Hartline does that for us. What really stands out to me is the ratio of touchdowns to long receptions in other players. Let's take a look at a few of them. I'm going to be COMPLETELY objective and take every fifth player on the list starting from the top. Mike Wallace: 37/20 = 54% Vincent Jackson: 30/10 = 33% Torrey Smith: 14/5 = 35% Larry Fitzgerald: 26/8 = 30% Reggie Wayne: 21/8 = 38% Pierre Garcon: 18/9 = 50% Nate Washington: 20/7 = 35% Miles Austin: 15/8 = 53% Now Brian Hartline: 13/0 = 0% If you add only the one touchdown last game without any others of 20+ (which is generous because it would hurt his end percentage worse) you get 14/1 = 7% Do I need to go further? Do you guys see what I'm getting at? He isn't a threat to go the distance on any play and doesn't impact a defense the way other receivers do. In fact how many times have we seen Hartline make a big play just to be caught on the fifteen yard line? The ten? The five? Tackled at midfield right as he makes that deep catch even though he has a step? Football is a game of inches and those extra points DO matter in the end. Saying Hartline isn't something doesn't mean I hate him. He does a lot of things well and there are a lot of things he could do better. He can make plays down field but in order to be a threat in my opinion, teams have to feel threatened by you. Maybe if/when teams start shading safeties towards the deep sideline because of him I'll change my mind.
I tried to prioritize it from top to bottom when factoring in all 4 aspects: 31+ yard throws, 21-30 yards throws, TDs, and total yards of those completions. IMO, you're gonna have a threat label attached to you, then scoring and total yards of those plays should be factored in b/c if you're a threat you should be able to convert some or many of those deep throws, no? thanks. Just being honest & realistic about it. WADR to everyone on this forum, especially the one's arguing he's a vertical threat, I'm not sure if they understand what the word "threat" indicates. For instance, if a foreigner is flagged as a potential national security threat, does he receive the standard 1 on 1 with whichever random custom's agent greets him who in turn welcomes him to American and wishes him an enjoyable stay?..... or do we pay him extra attention, pat him down tight, and show him the rubber glove treatment? IDK, perhaps that goes hand in hand with teams not putting a safety over him to date b/c he hasn't shown the ability to score. Hartline is a threat, an intermediate one..... and it's his intermediate threat that allows him the ability to occasionally get behind defenses. IMO, if a different aspect of his game is needed to set up the vertical game, then I have a difficult time calling him a vertical threat. When we bring in a legitimate playmaking receiver, the Hartline Express should serve as a nice compliment.
And I used this season alone, which is the first time in Brian Hartline's career he's had a QB who throws accurately downfield, as well as his fourth year of development, which is when Jordy Nelson for example started to flourish in the league. Prior to this season I made the same argument you did and said Brian Hartline wasn't a deep threat, which as you point out is borne out by the numbers. But so far this season he's operating quite differently based on the numbers, and I don't think it's a coincidence that we have a QB who is throwing very accurately downfield.
The thread about what Brian Hartline's done over his entire career was never started. If you want to start that thread and then end it, be my guest.
So what if he isn't? Ted Ginn was a deep threat. Remember that ball he caught with two steps on Reavis, turned on the afterburners and left Reavis and the safeties in his dust on the way to the end zone? That's the kind of deep threat we're talking about, right? Of course, he couldn't do it anywhere near consistently. Not even close. Neither could Gates. That's why they're both gone. Hartline catches balls consistently. You can't send him on a go and expect him to blow by the safeties and grab a bomb in stride, but you can send him on a slant 20 yards deep and he'll go get it for you most of the time. That's threat enough for me. Now, would it be nice to have a burner who can actually get open, catch the damn ball and goodbye? Of course. That and Hartline and Bess, too, would be great. That's what the extra picks are for.
If he isn't, then IMO you need to go out and get one and move Hartline to the possession role and Bess to the slot. If he is, then I think you can function quite well by adding a possession receiver like Jabar Gaffney and moving Bess to the slot. It's all about making personnel moves that put players in the roles to which they're best suited. It's important that Hartline's deep threat ability is accurately appraised IMO, so that the team can go about seeking the correct kind of additional receiver. The rest of the season will tell IMO, but right now he's looking like a deep threat based on the numbers.
Well if the point is that Brian Hartline's overall body of work, based on the numbers, is inconsistent with his being a deep threat, you can count me among those who agree. But if the point is that he's currently performing among the league's best as a deep threat, then it sounds like there's some reluctance to agree, and instead a push to change the topic to what he's done overall.
IMHO Hartline is an intermediate threat, not a vertical threat, which is what sets up the occasional deep game for him. He's got great acceleration over the first 12 yards, can run well laterally, and throttles down fairly quickly, but he doesn't have long speed. Pair that with great route running, headiness, and solid hands in the intermediate range and he's a very good intermediate receiver. IMO defenses are aware of this and corners defend against it, hence biting on double moves or trying to jump routes. If he were a true deep threat, this would be the other way around and defenses would routinely put a safety over top of him like they frequently did with Ted Ginn, but Hartline rarely to never sees that. I just watched Donovan McNabb discuss and diagram a Bengal's play where they spread out the field and moved AJ Green around to create a matchup advantage against Washington. McNabb points out Green now being isolated 1 on 1 on the outside vs DeAngelo Hall (who isn't a bad corner in his own right) with a single high safety, and Donovan continues to call it a matchup advantage for Cincy. Now, if McNabb considers 1 on 1 vs DeAngelo Hall a "matchup advantage" for Green (who typically sees bracketed coverage), then what does say about Hartline who constantly gets those 1 on 1's, gets them verse the #2 to #4 corner for much of the game (like he did verse Zona), and gets them b/c the defense allows these matchups rather than us trying hard to create them? Hartline is having an awesome year, not taking away from that, but if AJ Green routinely saw the same coverage Hartline typically receives, he'd have 1000+ yards and 10 TDs right now.
So again, since everything is boiling down to coverages for you here, why are Hartline's numbers so different this season than before in his career? Surely you don't think he was getting covered more before.
IMO--- It's mostly due to Philbin & Sherman (which includes the fast paced offense and seeing 53 drives, most in the NFL), a better running game grabbing more of the defense's attention, Tannehill's ability to create with this feet, and Hartline's intermediate threat ability nicely accenting it all. He still has to get open deep, which he can occasionally, but I don't consider that a "threat" by the definition of the word. A threat in every sense requires extra attention in effort to avoid or stop it. If there's a threat to national security, extra measure will be taken to address it. Considering no extra measure is taken by defenses to address Hartline, I don't consider him a vertical threat. If he begins receiving extra attention AND still produces deep like the great vertical threats of the league, then I'll happily call Brian a deep threat.
Well I think you have to consider that a threat is recognized only after one has been burned by it previously. I suspect you'll see Cinicinnati pay Brian Hartline the kind of attention this week you believe he hasn't been getting.
People on this board get WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too caught up in labels like "deep threat" and "number one receiver."
I think so, too, and if Hartline still responds (which I hope he does), then I'll be quite happy about it.
the guy does good work, even if it is controversial sometimes..he only states things as his opinion and it comes thru that he's got some unique perspectives on the game and players....jmo
I do want you to know that I meant nothing negative by that remark. I'm just saying. This is my 5th season and I've only got 5300.
I did the math to see how long it would take to catch Padre..... so I figured at this pace it should happen 10 years from now. It's all part of the master plan.
No one can ever catch the Padre, just like no one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition. Alen was doing a good job of keeping pace with the Padre for the first couple of years on the forum. I think they both hit the 30k mark about the same time, but since then Alen has stopped posting as often. Oh well, quantity does not necessarily equal quality anyway does it?
Yup, Trowa's right...Phinsational is a huge attention whore. That's roughly a little under 48 posts per day...1 per every half hour, 24/7
