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Advanced NFL Stats Simulation Has Miami Winning AFC East

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Bpk, Oct 19, 2012.

  1. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

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  2. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And according to the stats, there is still greater than a 50% chance that we don't win the division. Compare that with the estimate for the Texans, for example.

    Don't go placing any bets unless you have odds. ;)
     
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  3. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    brb realistic is now known pessimistic.
     
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  4. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    I got them 150-1.. Now they are 50-1
     
  5. rumple

    rumple Mr Negative

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    How we goin to beat the Patriots, they way better than us.
     
  6. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    This. Why even play the games? Might as well just forfeit.
     
  7. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    It's pessimism if it comes from the same folks over and over and over and...
     
  8. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Mr. Negative with his usual 1 sentence post.
     
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  9. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    You just HAD to put that link in there didn't you. Despite the good news contained therein, I now have to go take a shower, disinfect my keyboard, and run a malware, spyware sweeper, virus scan, and try to bribe my computer into working correctly. All from visiting THAT site. Now, where is that clorox?
     
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  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    The overall point should be that the team is much better than the national media and most outsiders thought. We all knew that the team underachieved and was poorly coached the last several years, and should have been a wildcard-level club, but was below average instead. Combine better coaching with a good rookie class and finally a real quarterback, and the team is looking....well, average, but so is just about everyone else in the AFC. I like that the site gives us a 71% chance to finish first or second in the division. I think that most of us would have thought that was a best case scenerio going into the season.

    If the team can continue to play well all year, tannehill develops, and they stay healthy, that will be a win into itself. If that can put a cherry on top by challenging for a playoff spot all season, that would just be awesome, but I wont be crushed if it doesnt happen. I will, however, expect contention in 2013.
     
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  11. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    And the good news in all of this is that our team may be playing .500 ball, but we are on the way up as the other teams that are playing .500 ball in the AFC are on the way down.

    The future looks bright for us finally.
     
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  12. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    You're not allowed to be a realist. It has to be sunshine and unicorn farts all the time.

    We can't just be happy that our young QB is developing nicely, he has to win the division against arguably a Top 3 QB of all-time in his rookie year.
     
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  13. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    to win the AFCE? my god...
     
  14. jsizzle

    jsizzle Banned

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    The future's so bright, I gotta...

    :cool:
     
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  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Winning the division would be surprising. But this team contending for the playoffs shouldn't be a major surprise. There were people that recognized the talent on the team prior to the season starting.
     
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  16. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    While I agree with you on the talent of the team, I'm still surprised we're in the playoff hunt. I say that because I didn't expect us to be here with Tannehill as our starter.
     
  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is there any stat that accounts for the odds of bad referee breaks turning into some good ones for the team that got sh&$ on.

    I would say the past two weeks there hasn't been a team that's had more poor calls, more bad bounces than us, that can't be a lasting trend..Still won though.
     
  18. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I'm not surprised the team is 3-3, but you have to admit it's surprising the way the rest of the AFC has performed.
     
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  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Not especially. I knew the Jets and Bills would be worse than us. New England is slightly surprising, but if you look at how they performed last year against the better teams, there was some slight indication they wouldn't be a powerhouse this season.
     
  20. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    This was to funny. WTH?
     
  21. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Interesting going back to the preseason threads. FinD said he guaranteed the team finishes .500 or better. The responses were classic. Majority of people thought this team would win 4-5 games max.
     
  22. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Like a few have said already, I don't think we really have enough talent to do much this year, given the lack of play-makers, the ups and downs some of our young talent will likely have and the fact that it's pretty likely that the pasties and jests aren't playing very well now, but are still talented enough to beat us head to head. Realistically, we have to play our absolute best pretty much every game to win the division whereas the jests and pasties can 'afford' a bad game or two...it's still going to be fun and as long as we continue to see the development of the young players we now have throughout the season, even if we don't end up in the dance, I'll be satisfied... Seriously, how great it would be to be looking at the draft and FA with the thoughts that we won't have to look for another QB... A far cry from the storied history of fan-dom with this franchise, but I'd be totally satisfied with that when all is said and done this season...
     
  23. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I meant the AFC as a whole, not just the East.
     
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  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Hey, if the topic is so positive, why are you spending any time at all talking about one person's negative response to it? :headscratch: ;)
     
  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh, I think we could especially if we can at least split with the patriots.
     
  26. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    IF you take the team at face value it might seem like a little bit of a stretch ... BUT if you were to look at the remaining schedules - it isn't a stretch at all ...

    In the DIV -- we clearly have the most winnable games left (5) as compared to NE + NYJ at (3) ...

    In the CON -- we are tied for the 2nd most 'winnable' schedule behind DEN (6) and tied with SD + HOU at (5) ...

    Has limited bearing on how the record will end up -- but for stats and simulations it sure does!!

    According to current records - the DIV IS there for the team to win ... (assuming RT doesn't have too many 'rookie' moments and we have no siginificant injuries)

    What we likely know today:

    - HOU will win their DIV and no one else there matters

    - DEN will and SD most likely will make the playoffs based on their remaining schedule (albeit SD is vastly over rated) and no one else there matters

    - BAL, CIN + PIT have very tough schedules and are going to kill each other ... best case is '2' of the 3 make it

    - NE is the competition on the DIV ...

    - JETSSUCK!!

    - JILLS don't matter ...
     
  27. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    I thought 3-6 max and it still could be 3-6, although I doubt it. The problem is fans feed into BS and get overhyped by numbers. The Phins have won against Cincy, Cleveland & Oakland. When they start beating the upper echelon teams I can buy into the team being legit this year. Long term I believe they are headed in the right direction, short term I'll stay caustiously optimistic.
     
  28. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    Ahhh the "post master" has spoken. He of the "poll clan" who will determine the worthiness of everyones topics. All bow and relish in his awesomeness
     
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  29. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    We beat St. Louis, not Cleveland.
     
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  30. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I believe I speak for everyone who has read this post when I say, "What?"
     
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  31. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is impossible, they had a winning record. Miami could only have beat Cleveland because they have a losing record.
     
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  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    When somebody says something so ridiculous, you're surprised somebody comments on it?

    If somebody said "it's a sunny day" and somebody else's response was "well bear in mind that we'll probably die of skin cancer", I would probably make a similar comment.
     
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  34. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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  35. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I think what some are simply saying is "Hey, you might wanna put on some sunscreen."
     
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  36. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    That should be easy to figure out if you can find out the games Steratore is reffing. I know he didn't ref our game 2 weeks ago, but it increases the odds of figuring out that stat. lol
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    He was pointing out that while they may be the favorite to win the division, it still is not probable. I don't think thats ridiculous at all.
     
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  38. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I see little wrong with it. Perhaps the only valid criticism may be the tone of shouright but he's never steered from such; it's a part of all his posts and why many, many, people often take issue with him. I know I have in the past. But again, I see little wrong with the assertion.
     
  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Feel free to use the ignore function.

    If someone is following the ToS, comments about their tone are themselves a violation of the ToS, since those are comments about a person and not a post. If you don't like the person's tone, remove him from "your" forum with the ignore function. You'll never have to read another word the guy says.
     
  40. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You think we have greater than a 50% chance of dying of skin cancer?
     

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