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Ryan Tannehilll's passing by down

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DevilFin13, Oct 27, 2012.

  1. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is a post explaining why Cam Newton isn't having as bad a year as the media narrative about him is suggesting is interesting. But in looking at the breakdown of the QBs by down I was obviously drawn to what Tannehill is doing. As usual, I don't know how to get the full graphs onto this post in an efficient manner. So I'll just tell you what they say if you are too lazy to follow the link.

    1st down: completions, attempts, completion %, yards, TD, INT, sacks, yards per attempt, passer rating[TABLE="class: wp-table-reloaded wp-table-reloaded-id-221, width: 900"]
    [TR="class: row-12 even"]
    [TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]40[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]68[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-4, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]58.8%[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-5, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]516[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-6, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]3[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-7, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-8, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]3[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-9, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]7.6[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-10, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]91.3[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    2nd down:

    [TABLE="class: wp-table-reloaded wp-table-reloaded-id-222, width: 900"]
    [TR="class: row-21 odd"]
    [TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]39[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]68[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-4, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]57.4%[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-5, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]459[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-6, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-7, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]2[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-8, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]6[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-9, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]6.8[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-10, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]70.6[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    3rd down:

    [TABLE="class: wp-table-reloaded wp-table-reloaded-id-223, width: 900"]
    [TR="class: row-10 even"]
    [TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]38[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]60[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-4, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]63.3%[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-5, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]476[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-6, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]0[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-7, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]3[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-8, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]2[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-9, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]7.9[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-10, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]67.1[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    Team 3rd down numbers: games, plays, yards to go, yards gained, TD, FG, 1st downs achieved, 1st down %, INT, fumble, sacks

    [TABLE="class: wp-table-reloaded wp-table-reloaded-id-225, width: 900"]
    [TR="class: row-7 odd"]
    [TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]6[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]62[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-4, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]8.32[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-5, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]7.48[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-6, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]0[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-7, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]0[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-8, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]24[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-9, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]38.7%[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-10, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]3[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-11, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]0[/TD]
    [TD="class: column-12, bgcolor: #D0D0D6 !important"]2[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]


    I'm not a huge fan of passer rating. So I'll compare Tannehill to the rest of the league by yards per attempt. On 1st down, he ranks tied for 10th. On 2nd down he ranks tied for 20th. And on 3rd down he ranks 9th.

    We run the ball the 7th most frequently in the league (46.85%). So defenses might be focusing in on the run on 1st down and thus giving Tannehill an easier time when we decide to throw on 1st down. But even if the run is helping the pass, I think we should throw it more often on 1st down, especially since the efficiency of our running game has dropped. I also think the lack of running efficiency (3.9 per rush, 20th in league) could be why Tannehill is struggling on 2nd down and putting us in bad shape on 3rd down.

    The Dolphins average the 6th most yards to go per 3rd down with 8.32. And Tannehill is gaining 7.9 yards per attempt. So despite having to get a lot of yards we are converting at a decent rate. That could be a product of the defense scheming to allow that to happen. If that is the case it could explain why his completion % and YPA is up compared to the other downs when 3rd down should be the hardest to throw on. I wonder, too, how many of those tipped passes resulted in his INTs on 3rd down, which is bringing his passer rating down.

    Anyway, hard to say too much definitively. Plus I've been writing this at work with a headache. So I'm not thinking all that well right now. But I wanted to get these numbers out there and see if anyone had any interesting thoughts.
     
    first&goal, smahtaz, Zippy and 3 others like this.
  2. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    How does he rank on 3rd down conversion %? It's the most important stat IMO.
     
  3. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Although I normally hate to leave out certain things on a ratings system.......I am of the opinion that it would not be a bad thing to leave out Tannys first game tipped passes to get his REAL QB rating. His first game in the NFL has a lot of unknowns and ol-whats-his-names tipped passes were the difference in that game, IMHO. He has grown so much since then.
     
  4. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Nov 26, 2007
    Concord, MA
    can't do that. you'd have to take other QBs "bad" game out too
     
  5. finfaninilinois

    finfaninilinois Active Member

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    Nov 29, 2009
    and Bess is 4th in the league on 3rd down receptions - just shows Tanny knows where to go on 3rd down!!
     
  6. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know what the numbers look like. And it didn't really matter. But the playcalling on 1st down today drove me nuts. It was like Sparano was calling our plays. Our running game sucks. We have to throw it more on 1st down.
     

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