We're getting into the last 3rd of the season, and the Dolphins flaws are readily identifiable at this point and is worth a degree of consideration. I think the thread is worth identifying the needs and nature of these needs. Talk about individual acquisitions is cool, but DON'T DO IRELAND **** IN THIS THREAD thanks. Free Agents(per spotrac) S Jonathan Amaya T Will Barker RB Reggie Bush S Chris Clemons QB Pat Devlin TE Anthony Fasano G Ray Feinga LB Jonathan Freeny WR Jabar Gaffney T Nate Garner WR Brian Hartline OT Jake Long TE Jeron Mastrud DT Tony McDaniel WR Marlon Moore QB Matt Moore CB Sean Smith LB Austin Spitler CB RJ Stanford DT Randy Starks RB Marcus Thigpen LB Jason Trusnik QB Hole: Veteran back-up and developmental player are both free agents Need: A back-up and a developmental prospect. Moore seems quite unlikely to re-sign and should be competing for a starting job elsewhere. Pat Devlin seems like he could potentially be elevated from developmental prospect to #2 after a strong pre-season. RB Hole:Potentially anything is up for grabs. Reggie Bush is a free agent and the coaching staff does not like him. Daniel Thomas appears a limited rusher and a specialist at best at this point. Lamar Miller is the best option of the bunch long-term but can't get on the field. It's a dysfunctional by-committee approach at this point. Need: A well-rounded guy who can potentially carry a heavy workload, but someone who will not be wasted if Miller is a winner. WR Hole: #1 receiver is a free agent, very little contribution otherwise. Need: Brian Hartline will probably be a priority free agent signing, as the coaching staff clearly likes him. A wide receiver with insuppressible physical talent would be exceedingly popular, and a big investment is probably not unwarranted. No contributions or reliable production beyond #1 and #2 is a big problem. TE Hole: Your competent and steady starter is up for free agency and seemingly having a down year. They like Charles Clay but he can't stop ****ing up in the passing game, and Michael Egnew may be a lemon. Need: The roster math is difficult here. You'd like to improve the receiving threat, but you're also in danger of ending up without a competent blocker and crowding out last years 3rd round pick and a like Charles Clay. It may be best to let Fasano walk and go after a starter. OT Hole: Jake Long is a free agent, and your Right Tackle is a bit of a question mark. Need: Position becomes a dire need if Jake Long walks. He's having a down year, but I think it's fairly unlikely he is not franchised and re-evaluated. Jonathan Martin needs veteran insurance, basically another Artis Hicks. OG Hole: Richie Incognito is a poor fit in terms of zone run blocking, John Jerry is just a guy. Need: A starting left guard. Coaching staff appears quite comfortable in not restricting parameters to smaller "finesse" guys. DT Hole: Randy Starks(starting 3-technique), and Tony McDaniel(back-up 1/3-technique) Need: If Starks leaves, significant investment may be needed. Could possibly see Odrick move here, but shifts nature of need. Kheeston Randall appears to have made Tony McDaniel redundant, rotational player may be needed. DE Hole: More pass rushing opposite Wake would be nice Need: Roster math may be difficult here. The physical profile for an every-down player at RDE is daunting given how variable the front in this defense is. A player would need to be able to both edge rush a LT and play essentially as 3-4 DE. The Dolphins also have young players who have looked promising at times in Olivier Vernon and Derrick Shelby, whose roles are likely to expand. LB Hole: Depth, all back-ups besides Josh Kaddu are free agents Need: Dansby and Burnett are playing well and key engines of the defensive scheme. Koa Misi had a hot start and has cooled, and could possibly get upgraded but I don't know it's a "need". Possible improvement in base defense pass rush could come from trying to find a Von Miller-style player or a shift in tendencies to the psuedo 3-4 tendencies in the defense. CB Hole Starting CB a free agent. Need: A departure of Smith creates a significant hole, with him play has been uneven. Possibly a high quality, but not quantity investment, as they've got a lot of serviceable starter/Nickel quality players at this point. Safety Hole: Starting safety is a FA Need: Chris Clemons is a FA, but I think dramatically more likely to be re-signed and continue starting than is popular, as despite lack of turnovers has been deceptively good. Reshad Jones has quietly become an elite player. I think fairly likely Jimmy Wilson is moved back in off-season. Kicker Hole: Dan Carpenter hasn't been very good. Need:A kicker with more consistency
Ireland sucks. One reason is he overpaid Karlos Dansby. You want these holes filled with quality players? Go get a real GM.
Nice breakdown Disgustipate. I wasn't even aware that Chris Clemons was an impending free agent. Can't say I really disagree with any of the needs either with ideas to fill them or who Miami should target. I wonder if Jonas Gray could be that contributor at running back behind Lamar Miller and allows you to move Daniel Thomas to a specialist role/3rd down back. I'd at least bring in some competition for Jorvorskie Lane. Some games he's outstanding, some games, he looks lost. It's even looked like Charles Clay has taken more snaps as a FB/H-Back as of late. Whether or not that's due to Jeron Mastrud's being inactive the past two week, I don't know. But I think you could stand to see someone who is more consistent than Lane play at FB, or push him in camp at the very least. This is one of the few offseasons I can remember Miami standing to have quite a bit of cap-space available to them. Some of that would obviously go to franchising Jake Long, re-signing Randy Starks, and Brian Hartline in my ideal world. I wonder though if you don't try and bring in at least 1 top-tier free agent who can start - like a Mike Wallace at receiver - and maybe try and bring in a guy who isn't quite going to break the bank like a Dashon Goldson to be that coverage safety. I think Reshad Jones has done his best work at or near the LOS lately (I think that's one element of Dick LeBeau's defense that Coyle's incorporated more and more of late - he'd mentioned his defense was part Marvin Lewis, Mike Zimmer, and Dick LeBeau in the preseason - may have been one more name as well. It'd be very interesting to see what would happen if Miami was staring someone like Barkevious Mingo square in the face in the first round of the draft. He's the type of hybrid player that could give you that Von Miller aspect of the defense and gives you more flexibility to mix in 3-4 looks/tendencies. I think you could still develop Olivier Vernon, but maybe he's more a long-term SAM LB and sub-package rusher.
It seems to me like Javorskie is a pretty competent lead blocker, but lately he's been getting Reggie KILLED. In the Bills game I saw 3-4 missed blocks that led to runs being stuffed. That's the type of **** that makes Reggie look bad. Biggest need IMO in this order - #1, CB. Preferably with AMAZING BALL SKILLS PLEASE DEAR GOD WHY CAN'T WE HAVE A CB WHO CAN CATCH. #2, #1 WR. Could be a guy in the draft, I guess, but we'd have to bring in a good accessory guy to help Tannehill out. I think Hartline and Bess are great, but we need a TD machine for Tanny to chuck it to in the Red Zone. #3, DE. We really, really need someone who can pressure opposite of Cam. I like Odrick, but he needs to play in the middle to spell Starks and Soliai. #4, RG. Jon Martin is the true weak spot in our run game and pass blocking, but I'm hoping he develops into a competent player. Jon Jerry just doesn't fit the scheme well. He's doing pretty good, and he really does have tremendous talent, but I don't think he fits here. #5a, Nickel CB. #5b, FS. Clemons is okay, but with the quality of corners we have, we need someone who shuts down the back end of the field, makes plays on the ball, and takes decisive angles to the ball carrier. I.e. we need someone other than Chris Clemons.
Needs for me go DE,WR,CB. I am a fan of getting a guy like Greg Jennings who knows Philbin well and scores and drafting a prospect in the 2nd-3rd. Odrick is better at DT to me than an end. Reading the opinions in the Draft forum of peeps that know a lot more than me about the upcoming draft, the draft looks to be pretty well stocked at DE.
Here is another way to think about team needs. QB 1 - Ryan Tannehill QB 2 - ____________ QB 3 - Pat Devlin RB 1 - ____________ RB 2 - Lamar Miller RB 3 - Jonas Gray FB 1 - Jorvorskie Lane TE 1 - ____________ TE 2 - Anthony Fasano TE 3 - Charles Clay OR Michael Egnew WR 1 - ____________ WR 2 - ____________ WR 3 - Brian Hartline OR Davone Bess WR 4 - Rishard Matthews WR 5 - ____________ (possibly Marlon Moore) LT 1 - Jake Long LG 1 - ____________ OC 1 - Mike Pouncey RG 1 - ____________ RT 1 - ____________ OL 6 - Jonathan Martin OL 7 - John Jerry OL 8 - ____________ OL 9 - Josh Samuda DT 1 - Randy Starks DT 2 - Paul Solial DT 3 - Jared Odrick DT 4 - Kheeston Randall LE 1 - Cameron Wake RE 1 - ____________ DE 3 - ____________ DE 4 - Derrick Shelby DL 9 - ____________ LB 1 - Karlos Dansby LB 2 - ____________ LB 3 - Koa Misi LB 4 - ____________ LB 5 - Olivier Vernon LB 6 - ____________ LB 7 - ____________ CB 1 - ____________ CB 2 - Sean Smith CB 3 - ____________ CB 4 - Nolan Carroll OR Jimmy Wilson CB 5 - ____________ FS 1 - ____________ (possibly Richard Marshall) SS 1 - Reshad Jones SS 2 - ____________ FS 2 - ____________ PK - ____________ P - Brandon Fields LS - John Denney KR/PR - Marcus Thigpen This implies the following SIGNINGS/DEPARTURES: Dolphins Free Agent - Signed (estimated price) 01. OT Jake Long - Sign (est. $11.0 Million) 02. DT Randy Starks - Sign (est. $7.5 Million) 03. CB Sean Smith - Sign (est. $6.5 Million) 04. WR Brian Hartline - Sign or Walk (est. $1.8 Million)* 05. TE Anthony Fasano - Sign (est. $3.0 Million) 06. RB Marcus Thigpen - Sign (est. $0.5 Million) 07. QB Pat Devlin - Sign (est. $0.5 Million) 08. WR Marlon Moore - Sign/Compete (est. $0.5 Million) 09. LB Austin Spitler - Sign/Compete (est. $0.5 Million) 10. CB RJ Stanford - Sign/Compete (est. $0.3 Million) * Brian Hartline should either be re-signed while simultaneously trading Davone Bess away to the highest bidder, or allowed to walk while keeping Davone Bess. I do not believe they coexist. The estimated $1.8 Million cost of keeping Hartline implies a $4.5 million per year contract for Brian Hartline, minus the $2.7 million saved by trading Davone Bess. Dolphins Free Agent - Walk 01. RB Reggie Bush - Walk 02. QB Matt Moore - Walk 03. FS Chris Clemons - Walk 04. DT Tony McDaniel - Walk 05. LB Jason Trusnik - Walk 06. WR Jabar Gaffney - Walk 07. OT Nate Garner - Walk 08. TE Jeron Mastrud - Walk 09. SS Jonathan Amaya - Walk 10. OT Will Barker - Walk 11. OG Ray Feinga - Walk 12. LB Jonathan Freeny - Walk This also implies the following CUTS/TRADES. Cut/Traded Player - Saved Money 01. DB Richard Marshall - $5.4 Million* 01. LG Richie Incognito - $4.3 Million 02. LB Kevin Burnett - $3.2 Million 03. PK Dan Carpenter - $2.7 Million 04. WR Davone Bess - $2.7 Million** * Contingent on the possibility of his being moved to starter at Free Safety. If not considered a realistic possibility, he should be cut. ** Again the Davone Bess trade implies Brian Hartline was re-signed. If not, then Bess should be kept. This also implies the following priority acquisition targets: Highest Priority - WR #1 Highest Priority - CB #1 Highest Priority - RE #1 Highest Priority - RB #1 High Priority - LG #1 High Priority - RG #1 High Priority - TE #1 High Priority - WR #2 High Priority - LB #2 High Priority - CB #3 Mid Priority - QB #2 Mid Priority - DE #3 Mid Priority - LB #4 Mid Priority - RT #1 Lower Priority - SS #2 Lower Priority - FS #2 Lower Priority - LB #6 Lower Priority - LB #7 Lower Priority - DL #9 Lower Priority - CB #5 Lower Priority - PK #1 Lower Priority - WR #5 And the collection or RESOURCES at the team's disposal: Salary Cap Space - $34 Million (post-Rookie Signings) Draft Picks - 1st Rd (High), 2nd Rd (High), 2nd Rd (Low - Colts), 3rd Rd (High), 3rd Rd (Low - Bears), 4th Rd (High), 5th Rd (High), 6th Rd (Low - Colts), 7th Rd (High), 7th Rd (Mid - Cowboys).
I think the question is would Coyle want to make the tendency shift. Koa Misi is very much a true linebacker, same with Manny Lawson. It's a pretty big increase in the amount of base unit blitzing from one guy. It'd fit very well within the confines of what Coyle already does, and I think it would be a good fit defensively, but it's still a shift. We're getting into the realm of asinine use of resources or extreme luck if we're able to have Brian Hartline as a #3, or in a position to trade Davone Bess.
I think this discontent towards Chris Clemons is also pretty wildly misplaced. He's playing quite well. On PFF right now he's #2 in the NFL in the amount of coverage snaps between targets, and #1 in the NFL in the number of coverage snaps per reception. Teams are not throwing at him or completing passes on him. He's not allowed much against him in terms of yardage, a very large portion coming off of the Chris Givens 65 yarder vs. the Rams. Everyone wants Ed Reed, but I think it's a rather safe assumption that you're not going to get him this offseason.
The one thing your breakdown of the roster clearly shows is how far this team is from being a legitimate contender for the playoffs in the near future. There needs to be vast upgrades in almost every unit on the roster. This will not be a one year fix, no matter how many draft picks the Dolphins have and how much money they have under the cap in 2013. It is going to take 2 or 3 more drafts to upgrade the talent on this team enough to be a legitimate playoff contender. Hopefully the person responsible for making these selections in the future will do a better job than has been done over the past five years.
It's a shift that should in all likelihood increase the pass-rush. And that's something this defense sorely needs. I think he should consider it.
Overall I agree with your plan of attack. I wouldn't cut Marshall and I don't know if I'd cut Burnett. I am of the thinking that Hartline could be a #2 next year while Bess remains in the slot if we can find a playmaker in the draft/free agency. Bess is a free agent in 2014 so I think we would be OK sticking with him for one more year or even trading him if we don't play to stick with him long-term.
To me, we need playmakers: -pass rusher to compliment Wake, as much attention as he receives and no one on the team is close to him in sacks -ball hawk in the secondary And for me, I want that hole at LG plugged, this is absurd.
Truthfully you're probably right about Kevin Burnett. Cutting him would save $3.2 million and pull his dead weight off the books in 2014, but it creates a High Priority need when we already have 4 Highest and 5 other High. Trading Davone Bess with one year remaining on his contract is exactly what I would have in mind. But I really don't think Hartline and Bess coexist well. I'm thinking longer term here. Perhaps you can run with it once again in 2013, but I don't think having those two on the field gives us enough play making, depending on what you're able to add to the unit in the way of a #1 WR. If you're able to add a Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall quality addition, some guy that can come right in and be dynamic immediately, then OK. But if we're talking about a rookie Justin Hunter or Keenan Allen? Different story, because those guys are going to have to work their way up the system from #3 all the way to #1, which means that once again your #1 and #2 are Brian Hartline and Davone Bess...and that's not good enough.
In your scenario, I would rather keep Bess and let Hartline walk. I think Bess is a better receiver than Hartline. Hartline tends to show up for some games and completely disappears in others. Bess is just a more reliable WR, as far as I am concerned. In the secondary, the only players I would want to see the Dolphins keep are Jones, and Smith,and only if Smith is willing to accept a cap friendly contract. Wilson and Carroll just aren't quality NFL players, but with all the other needs this team has, I suspect one or possibly both of them will return next year. Marshall is not worth the money he is scheduled to make next year. If he is willing to play for about a third of that contract amount, keep him. If he expects to be paid the five million dollars he is scheduled to be paid, I hope he will be happy playing for his fourth team in the last four years. If the Dolphins have to pay Jake Long the 11 million dollars you estimate. I just don't see how they can afford this, based on his play this season. Unless his play dramatically improves over the rest of this season, it would not surprise me in the least if he isn't a Miami Dolphins in 2013.
Let's say you were able to trade Davone Bess off for an extra 3rd round pick, after re-signing Brian Hartline. You could address that position by signing Greg Jennings and drafting Tavon Austin. That wouldn't give you the physicality you would like to see in the WRs unit, but Rishard Matthews could help with that. You would have more speed and play making ability overall. That takes up probably $6 or $7 million of your $20 million in free agent room, and still leaves you with 6 picks in the top 105. My instinct with the top pick (#5 to #8 overall is my estimate), is still to go after a top notch defensive lineman like Bjoern Werner. I'm prioritizing talent over need in some ways. If there were a Morris Claiborne then we have a need at that spot and that would be a good pick. If there were a Julio Jones or A.J. Green then we have a need at that spot and that would be a good pick. I don't think there are, though. And there isn't a Trent Richardson, either. One thing lost in Cameron Wake's general awesomeness is the fact that he'll be 31 years old before this year's Super Bowl is played. Yes, in a way having another premium DE can be considered a luxury, but Cameron Wake won't be Cameron Wake for another 7 years. He may not be Cameron Wake for more than 3 years. You need to start planning ahead and overlapping timelines. Get down into the 2nd round and maybe that's where you find yourself a Desmond Trufant or Terry Hawthorne...or both. You could think about replacing Kevin Burnett with a Sean Porter or Jake Knott. You've got to start picking up some guards that make sense in this scheme.
Saints have decent backs by committee. Thomas, Ingram, Ivory. Because of Brees they tend to get overlooked/underused. Any of those up for grabs offseason?
I don't believe so. Pierre Thomas is locked up long term, Mark Ingram was only just drafted in 2011, and Chris Ivory should be a Restricted Free Agent. If you want to make a splash at that position, Rashard Mendenhall is scheduled for free agency. From 2009 to 2011 he had 3309 rushing yards and 29 TDs on 794 carries (4.2 YPC). Generally speaking most people like to draft that position in the hopes they get the next Doug Martin, though. There's usually never any shortage of backs I like in the Draft although size is an issue. I like Johnathan Franklin, Christine Michael, Dennis Johnson, Zac Stacy, Ray Graham and Knile Davis. Obviously I love Andre Ellington but he's going to be the top back in the Draft.
You're cutting Kevin Burnett out of..boredom? A sense of adventure? To afford the big money free agents you're not going to sign? He's playing very well, and he's got a fairly uncommon skill-set that is pretty fundamental to the defense operating properly. It doesn't at all jibe with the assumption that the Dolphins are so completely bereft of talent that they shouldn't be creating holes that they won't have on their own.
I think Clay is pretty much built in competition for Lane. He's turned into a pretty competent all-around blocker. Lane's up and down, but I still think he's new enough at the fullback thing that you give him some more time. I think the performance of the line in general in terms of run blocking is detrimental to Lane as well.
this roster is nothing short of pathetic. it's pretty embarrassing how many needs the team has 5 years after a 1-15 season....now i know how Lions fans felt throughout the last decade. but hey, by all means, let's keep our GM.
Great post Ck. Thanks, very informative. Nice to see it all broken down like that. I see Jerry back to a swing position/back-up type on your listing. Does he fit at all with this coaching staff.
Ck, how would your draft look like right now, considering your priority acquisition priority list and using the current status of draft eligible prospects. Be very interesting to see your thoughts.
You did not mention how Daniel Thomas is no longer on the roster, would you cut him? Try and trade him? Also you don't have FS1 in your priority list, are we to assume that it's Marshall? Also played a little fantasy with Free agency and draft
I think probably an underrated prospect is that the Dolphins end up drafting a defensive tackle high. There's a lot of 6'3" 320 pound guys in this draft who look like they could fill an either 1 or 3-technique position equally well, and there's the potential that they will be the BPA at a Dolphins selection pretty early. Having to replace Randy Starks is not ideal, but getting a NT who can rush the passer would be a pretty nice bonus, considering their use of Soliai isn't ideal and he's had a bit up and down this year.
If Ireland is drafting why would it be considered an underrated prospect that Miami would draft a defensive tackle high? Success should dictate status quo.
I think Ivory is a free agent this offseason..I havent understood why this dude has not been getting reps, and why their taking running backs in the first round with that dude on the roster, maybe they've seen the errors of their ways now, but if not he would be someone I'd make a move on.. Keepin a real close eye on Stepfan Taylor in the draft. I might wanna trade down in this draft and get one more first rounder.. Come out with Tavon Austin and Tyler eifert in the first, then follow up with Chase Thomas and Shane Skov in the 2nd. Greg Jennings would be my target free agent.
Greg Jennings would be my choice as well. I wonder if Philbin will push for him. He hasn't really brought anyone in from the Pack yet has he?
Not to get into pissing contest but the LB position? Misi seems okay but Dansby and Burnett are overpaid compared to the paycheck. Kaddu flashed at all?
I think Jennings is by far and away the most likely big money free agency acquisition, but I'm still not sure he hits all of the roles they'll probably want.
This is all good and all but we all know the reality is that further holes will be created than actually filled.
At the beginning of the season we thought our RB position was deep and actually a strength of this team. Now, we might very well have to draft an everyday RB. Sad.
Yeah that sucks man...but maybe if we go after the right type of running back we can forget about the position for a while..
If we got the right players at lots of positions we would be able to forget about that position for a while , of course that isn't the case. So we are contemplating , planning , wanting to go ahead , again with the leader of the pack?
I find it hilarious how 3 games ago people kept talking about how close we were to being a contender and now we're 3 drafts away again. The truth honestly lies somewhere in the middle. I've been saying all season long that there's more talent on this team than people give them credit for, and they've showed that at certain points this season. The first thing that needs to be done is to resign our free agents that are essential to the team. We absolutely need a big play capable WR. I don't know how Mike Wallace fits their schemes, but man he's exactly the kind of receiver we need. A deep threat who can get separation and score from anywhere on the field. Definitely in need of a playmaker in the secondary. A ball hawk. I love Reshad Jones and I'm a big fan of Sean Smith too but we need guys that can make game changing plays back there. We need help at pass rush. I'm a lot higher on Olivier Vernon than others and have seen flashes from him this season. He essentially won us the game against the Rams with that huge sack on the last drive. He's also shown a bit of a knack for making big plays (2 blocked FG's, TD on special teams) and I'm still confident in him becoming a steal of a draft pick. Regardless though, the more the merrier. So, if we can upgrade significantly at some of those spots (especially WR and defensive back), and Tannehill continues to make progress I see no reason why we can't compete for a playoff spot. I mean, technically we're still fighting for one NOW and have big holes to fill. We shall see. It will certainly be fun.
Karlos Dansby is pretty undeniably overpaid, but I don't see how Burnett is. If anything you're underpaying the performance this year. And even then, I'm not sure Dansby is overpaid to the point of scandal either. If you're getting 80% of what you paid for on big money free agents, you're ahead of the curve. Kaddu has been on the field all of three snaps, but I think the issue with him is that he plays a different position than either Burnett or Dansby. He's was basically a college 3-4 OLB, and the position he plays is a hybrid 4-3/3-4 OLB, behind Misi and Trusnik.