Team Needs '12

i would really like to keep starks,hartline,bush,smith , but i can see ireland wanting to keep long and overpaying him bigtime and reggie seems to be on the way out

when the season started it looked like we had a very good backfield bush,thomas,miller,thigpen , next year isnt looking very good if bush goes ,thomas just dosent do it for me ! a so called team strength this year could be huge weakness next year just with a click of the fingers! another area to address!!

 

I agree with CK for the most part .... I have always maintained a 'defense' first mentality and remain so. Unless you have a Brady or Brees that can shoulder the responsibility of winning (much like Marino / Fouts) then you need a defense. It was and is critical to RT's development as well.

We MUST have a compliment to CW .... Vernon has shown 'some' spurts at times, but doesn't seem to be the 'answer'. We have seen so many top teir DE/OLBs go bye in the 1st/2nd round of the draft in the last 4+ years -- and most are all contributing pieces of top defenses in the league. All I can say is look at HOU, BAL, and PIT ... stout up the middle with ends and OLBs that can bring it. It takes committment and talent .... we keep tinkering with our front 7, but have not found the answer at RE/OLB - and have not gotten out of Dansby and Burnett what our $$$ says we should. We fix our front 7 and we can 'tinker' with the backfield, but it all starts with the R side. Odrick can move and stay inside, along with Solai, Randall and Alexcih. Selby is one end .... but this is the position that NEEDS to be a stud.

The lot of Trusnik, Burnett and Dansby are all unspectacular .... let Misi take over the middle, keep Vernon for the outside and scrap the rest less STs (Freeny + Spitler), maybe see what Kaddu has ....

Our OL is next ... really, I would put Martin at LT next year (assuming he gets stronger) - as I doubt he'd be any worse than Big Jake over last and this year. Then figure out RT .... at G we have an empty cupboard -- maybe less Samuda. Gardner has been a disappointment the last 2 years, Richie is Richie, and Jerry hasn't shown he is the future (Unless there is a thought to putting Jerry back at RT).

I think we'll be 'ok' at RB with Gray, Miller, Thigpen and Thomas for next year .... see what we have and go from there in '14.

At QB, we are fine .... unless RT has a mental breakdown from the remainder of this year. I don't think getting a veteran backup is a challenge ... and keeping Devlin isn't a 'bad' thing.

WR/TE is last ... our 'veteran' pick-ups have produced nothing. Hartline is a keeper ... So should Bess, and we should see what Fuller and Matthews can bring in year 2. We NEED a legitimate threat/target, to allow our complimentary pieces to be effective. THAT person is not on the roster, neither is a real threat at TE - albeit, I am wiling to give Egnew til next year to 'get it'.

DRAFT PRIORITIES:
DE/OLB: 1-2 (top half 1st round)
WR: 1-2 (elite would be top 10 - but 'could' be had in FA)
S: 1-2 (*would likely have to be a top 10 pick to truly matter)
G: 3-4
LB: 3-4
CB: 3-4

I am not paying Long, Starks or Smith a huge paycheck to stay .... particularly Long or Smith. Admittedly, Starks has earned his $$$$ - just think we don't 'NEED' him IF and ONLY IF we can get a playmaker @ RE. IF someone could show a physical reason why Long has pretty much been pedestrian since his shoulder injury. IF he is what he is with no chance of a rebound -- it would be criminal to pay him that kind of $$$$$.

 

Better fans.

 

yep def end is a big need!! i know odrich has been playing end for the most part this year put i am not very confident he has it to be a full time starter at def tackle ?
moving misi to mlb in ways i like the move i just cant see it happening , a 3rd change of positions in 3 years takes some doing , would you cut dansby ? i dont think it helps us cap wise to do it in 2013?? i maybe wrong

we need 2 new guards! john jerry i can see starting again next year or maybe used as the nate garner man! plays both tackles and guard
smith i would resign but nit for stupid money , otherwise we looking for 2 new corners starting next year
we got needs everywhere imo
i hope we go for def end ,corner,wr,safety,and guard with our 5 1st picks in draft , but it just depends if irelands still here we may go off line,def tackle,off line,def tackle etc !

 

Martin hasn't been good manning the right tackle position, what makes you think the left will be any better?

The dude is getting manhandled on some plays, I don't trust him at this point to become the player folks want him to be.

Kaddu to me has a serious problem countering change of direction.

 

what are peoples thoughts on this off season ?? and what grade would you give his mock draft?? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...to-a-perfect-offseason-for-the-miami-dolphins

 

LMAO sooooooo glad you guys are not running this football team. LOL

 

while Martin hasn't been a standout at RT to say the least ... like most, he lacks the strength to withstand bull rushes by talented DEs at this point. My point simply is ... Long has not been very good at all ... has always been challenged by speed rushers (hence the propensity to 'cheat' with his side step). IF Martin can get stronger -- even now, I would be as comfortable with him at LT as I am today with Long at his current performance level. IF Long can recover to 85-90% of his 'old' self -- then this is wasted breath .... but if not, then moving a likely improved Martin over to his 'normal side' would most certainly not be any worse for the wear. I mean - we trust Long right now?? really?? @ 11MIL ... heck we bemoan and compain about Dansby - Long is stealing $$$ at a criminal rate by comparison.

Don't get me wrong .... the OL isn't 'all' Long ... but between Long and Pouncey -- we should be able to get away with a 'lesser' LG .... and we clearly can not.

I guess my point is simply this -- IF we keep and franchise Long @ 11+ MIL (as there is doubtful to be a 'hometown discount') ... and his level of performance stays the same -- how exactly will we improve the OL play even with at least one new guard. His level of performance hasn't decreased because he is helping out Richie, it is very likely due to his shoulder. He used to be able to compensate for his lack of quickness with strength -- now he can't. It is as simple as that.

 

Not really, the rules of the NFL essentially guarantee that having good players will lead to high turnover.

 

This team needs to fix the O-line, period!! Anyone who thinks investing high draft picks to the our o-line great is a poor allocation of resources needs to watch the 49ers. Irish needs to use the 1st pick on Warmack from Alabama. Resign Long to a reasonable deal. Long is an above average LT and should be paid as such. They still need to draft another G or RT to replace or compete with Jerry and Martin. Can you imagine what a good O-line can do for this offense. Talent at the skill positions means jack shiot unless you have guys to block up front. Just look at that debacle in Philly. It's pathetic how they're wasting all that talent on offense because they have no frigin o-line.

 

disagree, think we need new players on the OL, but we need to use those high picks on, you know, guys who make plays.

I'm sick to death of this crew of players who don't make things happen, even the simplest of plays seems beyond Dansby et al's ability, a LG at #12 is a waste.

 

Defense needs an infusion of playmaking ability & increased physicality b/c we're a few pieces away from being a unit capable of intimidating. I'd try satisfying WR and possibly offensive guard & CB depth in free agency and look to take our defense over the top with the first 3 picks of the draft.... and then go back to WR, TE, Oline, and possibly RB with the rest of it provided it doesn't involve reaching for anyone (not to be confused with trading up).

IIRC, Andy LeVitre, Kraig Urbik, and Chad Rinehart are all UFAs, so maybe we can steal one these quality zone-blocking guards from Buffalo. Rinehart probably deserves starting money, and I doubt Buffalo would give it to him.

Perhaps Kenny Phillips is allowed to test FA with the emergence of Stevie Brown. I don't see why he couldn't be persuaded to come home.
Ditto for Sam Shields or homegrown Cary Williams (Ravens) who is playing well.

 

Richie is Richie because he was signed as a kick *** road grading RG as he was in St. Louis. We turned him into a LG of which he played exactly, drum roll please, One game in the NFL, his first, alongside Orlando Pace. He was then switched to center, due to need as the starting center was injured for the season by first half of first game and the backup was tossed like a cheap salad, by Paul Boudreau for 13 games, then switched to RG for the remainder of the games that season and remained there until he came to Miami.

Nobody is even mentioning the fact our RG, John Jerry pulls like RARELY. he cannot even pull out of his stance and go right on a sweep because he just can't . I get a laugh when I read here this offense wants more mobil people. Fact is folks the two most mobil people on this Oline is POuncey and Incognito. Long cannot move to save his life, John Jerry Moving is very ugle and Martin moves good, when he is being pushed backwards at 25 MPH by a DE LOL.

 

If we trade back in the first round, I wouldn't be opposed to the guard from UNC, Jonathan Cooper. He reminds me of Pouncey's UF days at guard.

Guard isn't a sexy pick, but when you have 2 rare, athletic, mobile studs together like Pouncey & Cooper who can get to the 2nd level with ease, as well as stay out in front of screens, then you're creating opportunities for a playmaking back like Bush or Miller to break off some big runs by creating space at the 2nd level, not to mention buying Tannehill more time to throw. We all want exciting plays, but they rarely happen if the Oline doesn't provide the back or QB an opportunity for them. Now I'm not necessarily saying he'd be my first choice, but I certainly wouldn't throw my arms up in disgust if it happened, especially considering we have two 2nds & 3rds to work with.

 

I think I fixed this up pretty good.
Underline is picks
Italics is our own FA's
Bold is other teams FA's

Absolutely not with regards to Bess and Hartline. And frankly whether you and some others like it or not get ready because GB has a habit of taking WR's in round 2 or 3 just about every other year for the last 5.

Jennings worries me a lot. 2 of the last 3 years hes been injured and GB doesnt usually give 3rd contracts that will run a premium. Pitt and NE generally do the same. He may be more fools gold then anything. He may have 1-2 years left as a good player but hes been out almost all year. And youre going to have to give him big money.

 

My reasons for wanting Jennings run deep, I think he's been better than good in his prime, philosophies and language are going to be recognizable if he comes here, he's 29 years old, had some injuries , but should be healthy going into next season, and the guy is a professional thru and thru with championship pedigree..It makes sense, especially because we need an actual dangerous threat with legitimate talent on this team..

 

Some interesting things in there. If I may offer some points about what you've done.

1. You forgot to estimate Brian Hartline's cost of re-signing.

2. I don't think Buffalo is going to let Andy Levitre walk.

3. I like what you've done with drafting Colin Klein. Not a quarterback by any means but a nice versatile red zone and short yardage option like Tebow. I was always a proponent of utilizing a player like that.

4. I don't think Randy Starks signs for $6 million a year. I would be very surprised. I believe I estimated like $7.5 million and that is already what I feel is a low estimate. He'll probably ask for at least $8 million but the Dolphins do get to point to Cam Wake's contract and say we can't pay you significantly more than Wake.

5. If Jon Martin is already getting beat like a drum at right tackle I do shudder to think what he'll do at left tackle. Are you sure you're moving in the right direction here? If anything the way he's played this year we should be hitting the reset button on Jon Martin and not handing him anything unearned a second year in a row. I have him as a 6th or 7th OL on the depth chart until he proves he's actually capable of being in the starting five. Thus far, he hasn't.

6. Honestly you might have the wrong former Cardinal as a cheap corner signing. You should look into Michael Adams at some point. I think you'll like what you see.

7. I think that's a risky running backs unit. Daniel Thomas doesn't produce and Lamar Miller still hasn't shown that he can earn the coaches' trust and get on the field. Jonas Gray couldn't make it off the NFI and so we don't know what's going on with him.

8. You've got "swing tackle" for our #6 OL but didn't really name anyone. Is this a free agent? You've used up all the draft picks.

9. I don't think we should ever just a assume a guy takes a pay cut. Mr. Kevin Burnett isn't very likely to play ball on that. He's never had his playing time reduced or anything. I have my reasons for cutting him, but I don't think he or his agent are going to look at his production in Miami and say to themselves, "We'd better accept a pay cut because if we don't, things could get worse".

10. Probably the biggest problem with this construct is the fact that Miami goes ahead and signs $41.3 million worth of free agents (including their own), while initially cutting only about $8.2 million in fat. This leaves us with less than $7 million under the salary cap, which should be enough to sign the rookies. However, you propose that Miami trades Jake Long. In an ideal world Miami does this immediately in free agency, like 12:01am the day the league year starts. That's not likely to happen. That trade is likely to drag on for quite some time and in the mean time I believe Miami will have something like $15.4 million on the books for Jake Long caught up in his franchise tag. Suddenly that $41.3 million actually becomes $56.7 million while initial cuts only reduce to $48.6 million. That's more salary cap than the Dolphins will have available to them, and that's not even accounting for the $6 million needed for rookies (which is probably more like $7 or $8 million with the trades you've baked in). The Dolphins could get some cap relief by trading Davone Bess as you suggest, but again...when does that happen? Does that happen right away or does that also take some time?

 

Looks like (to me) that he went with the method of a $4.5M/yr deal for Hartline because he traded Bess for a 4th-5th round selection.

I do agree with your premise about trading Long and the free agency money available when all those free agents are available to be signed... Long will likely be under contract during that time frame and I doubt we trade him beforehand. If we franchise tag Long then trade him, it will likely be a draft day trade (or days prior).

 

trade Bess? no, I'd rather keep him and trade Hartline or let him walk. Hartline is basically average or slightly above average at every aspect of a receiver's game, he isn't really exceptional at anything. at least Bess actually has great route running, hands, and quickness.

in fact Bess and Rishard Mathews are the only guys currently on the team that I view as our long term weapons. you add a Mike Wallace and take another WR in the first 3 rounds of the draft and add a Delanie Walker or Jared Cook to upgrade the TEs and now you've built a potent group of weapons for Tannehill.

 

It's an open question. Brian Hartline can't be your dynamic play maker but neither can Davone Bess. My preference of the two is for Hartline just because 1) He's more productive, 2) He's an outside guy and IMO outside guys are always harder to find than inside guys, and 3) Along the same lines of 1 and 2 he makes bigger plays.

Brian Hartline is producing 10.0 yards per target, which is even higher when you consider the pass interference and holding flags he continually draws. He's producing 2.27 yards per pass snap. Those are both outstanding. Even if you exclude the Arizona game, he's producing 1.77 yards per pass snap. Personally I don't agree with excluding an entire game like that but I could understand excluding one play, the 80 yard touchdown. If you exclude that he's producing 2.05 yards per pass snap and 9.1 yards per target.

I like Davone Bess, but his 7.7 yards per target and 1.65 yards per pass snap represent relatively stable long term figures for him. It works out to 3308 yards on 459 targets (7.2 yards per target) on 1920 pass snaps (1.72 yards per pass snap). Note the higher yards per pass snap in the past was bolstered by his over-use, as evidenced by his really low 7.2 yards per target figure. Now he's increased his yardage per target but at the expense of his overall role in the passing game, which in turn has actually lowered his yardage per pass snap.

Short story short, Brian Hartline has been more valuable to the pass offense this year. Hartline is not scaring defenses with speed but he IS capable of sneaking behind defenders and making big plays when they fall asleep on him. You can't say that about Davone Bess. Even if a defender falls asleep on him, they easily recover in time to prevent the deep pass.

I think there's room for one of the two. If you have both players you run the risk of putting them out on the field which means you don't have enough dynamic play making ability on the field, unless you're able to acquire a Vincent Jackson overnight like the Bucs did. My preference for setting up the tasks ahead of the Dolphins would be to have them find ONE outside guy, rather than two. If Bess is the only guy you keep then you've got to find two outside guys and as I said before, they're rarer than inside guys. You can pick out inside guys from college or even the CFL. They come relatively easy. Jeremy Kerley, Andrew Hawkins, Danny Amendola, Kyle Williams...heck the Broncos are doing great with the ancient Brandon Stokley. Tavon Austin would be like a version of Davone Bess with the speed to actually break one for the distance every now and then.

 

interesting stuff ! never thought about trading bess ! i see that could work!! i agree its easier to find slot/inside guys ,[think we have enough of them already ?] wonder how much bess numbers would be different if he wasnt playing outside more this year!

 

I came out of that game on Thursday thinking they justifiably need everything....except punter.....and I am willing to hang on Tanney for a few more years (plus this years draft qb class sucks)

I am being dead honest.....

They need better O-lineman, better running backs, better wide receivers, better tight ends, more pass rushers, linebackers worth their salt, AN overhaul in the secondary besides maybe Jones.....

At this point when their number is called in the draft, they have to take the best player available......chances are it will fill ONE of their needs...

This is where the GM comes into play.....and we need one of those too......any good ones in this years draft?

 

1. I took your scenario with Hartline since I think its pretty accurate.
2. The Bills will not have much cap to really play with next year unless they make some drastic moves. They may not have much of a choice. And typically they are not a franchise that spends to the cap ceiling so just because they do have cap space does not mean they will use it
3. Thanks, I thought there was some value there and could become a viable backup down the road. And if he doesnt like you said he can be Tebow-like.
4. I gave him slightly less then you anticipated because the market is usually softer then anticipated for many 3rd contracts even players who havent hit 30 yet because of the miles on them. I gave Sean Smith a little more then you did. That could easily reverse itself. I could see a situation where either your or my scenario plays out for Starks/Smith
5. Im very sure this s the right move for Jon Martin. This guy is not a RT. From day one he hasnt really looked comfortable there. Put him back on his natural left side. Like I said though if it doesnt work out its another reason I prioritized Levitre because he can do adequately playing there.
6. I figured Michael Adams would be out of the 1M price range I was looking at for a 4th CB. I agree hes good. Too good in fact to get only a 1 year/1M kind of deal imo. Instead I swooped in on Jefferson who is having a good year and whose PFF rankings make him a potential steal as a 3rd/4th CB.
7. It took James Starks a lot of time to earn trust under Philbin as well. Bottom line is GB never invested more then 1 high pick at RB under Mike McCarthy (it was Alex Green). Its not a position theyre going to prioritize. And not for nothing, I think good guard play will make a world of difference for their running styles. I actually think it will be just fine as they both have flashed talent, just a matter of being more consistent.
8. I know. It would be a FA, I just didnt take any time to look at it initially. We could simply try and retain Garner at a lower cost or find someone who plays the LT spot such as a Will Beatty or Max Starks since Jerry can backup RT.
9. Burnett is probably wishful thinking but man it'd be sweet to have a coverage backer as a reserve at a reasonable salary. If not we have roughly 2M to play with to get a reserve LB...should be more then enough.
10. We have roughly 60M under the cap before trading Bess...of course that does depend on who hits what bonuses this year still but there should be plenty of money there especially considering the way the offense is moving. Spending roughly 48.7M works out fine mathematically. The trades are a little tricky but I didnt produce a timeline either for that reason. I just produced a roster construction that makes a hell of a lot more sense then what we have now and thats all the goal of the post was. If I could produce a timeline that would be accurate I would do it and also play the lotto because if I have the timeline right I probably have the lotto numbers too

 

I would strongly dispute this number. I've seen exact detailed figures on how much money the Dolphins have tied up in the contracted salaries in 2013 and unless you predict the salary cap to jump from $120 million in 2012 to $140 million in 2013 then your $60 million figure is way off.

 

One of a handful of places that say 60M. Depends on where you look and how they factor in bonuses. http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thed...ay-a-miami-dolphins-team-gearing-up-for-2013/

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline have played just about every game. Jennings, Nelson, Cobb, and Jones have all either missed time or spent chunks of the year in a backup role. Also they have 4 excellent wr's getting targets from a top 3 QB, we have 2 slightly above average targets getting passes from a rookie who has shown flashes but not there yet. Hartline may crack the top 4 on GB over Jones...at no point would he be starting over Jennings, Nelson or Cobb. Even Jones is debatable considering what he did when called upon. And yes, I AM saying GB's backup Wr's are unequivocally better then our starters. I would take Cobb and James Jones over Hartline and Bess...its not particularly close either.

 

What about targeting Ryan Swope as a replacement for Bess around 3rd, 4th round? If you can find a good dynamic WR to plug into the offense, and tandem of that WR, Hartline and Ryan Swope could be reasonably productive. Specially if you find a way to upgrade the TE position.

 

Bess and Hartline are both on pace for 1k yd seasons.

Dbess has further to go, but 414 yds in 6 games is quite doable, Hartline needs 210 yards.

 

Generally speaking the later the estimate the better. That one was back in June. The latest estimate I saw from during the season had the Dolphins about $40 million under the 2013 salary cap, assuming the salary cap in 2013 approximates the salary cap in 2012. That estimate, by the way, cited the NFL league office as its source.

I don't think Volin had his numbers right. I think he was shooting from the hip.

 

Davone Bess is on pace for 938 yards, and at 7.7 yards per attempt that doesn't impress me.

 

Much of that is Tannehill's level of comfort, Bess did much better even with the dull Chad Henne at Qb.

THill has become something of a check down machine atm, this is a key moment for Sherman and THill imo.

HAVE to break that, right now, for Tannehill to develop.

 

The two long passes he threw to Bess against Buffalo looked like a waste of a down. Even one was a great interception.

 

thats because they're the only two getting play..

Im fine with both players on the roster, wouldn't trade Bess, but like CK has mentioned, both on the field at the same time is just not productive, we need two dynamic receivers,and one dynamic tight end..

Stedman bailey, Tyler Eifert, Greg Jennings...Tavon Austin, Tyler Eifert, Greg Jennings, There are trade down possibilities that can take care of this problem. The talent in this years draft at the position rates a bit later in the round..

 

Drafting a player high at a position of strength to replace a guy that might be better, might be the dumbest thing you can possibly do this offseason.

Why not draft a Center in the first round and trade Pouncey? same thing.

 

Here is what we have to do:

A) Resign Jake Long at a price among the top three highest paid LT's. If he wants to be paid as #1, franchise and trade him.
B) Offer Reggie an extension at his current salary, if he refuses, offer him a 20% raise, if he still wants more, let him walk.
C) Trade Daniel Thomas, if you cannot find a taker, have him compete with a draftee and Lamar Miller for the backup duties to Reggie.
D) Keep Hartline and Bess for continuity, add a top talent at the #1 spot, draft a guy to push for #2 and #3 in the first 4 rounds of the draft.
E) Make TE#1 a top priority in Free Agency and the Draft. Fasano as a #2 makes the offense more versatile and much better.
F) Identify Karlos Dansby's trade value. If better than a 4th round pick, trade him.
G) #1 LCB is a top priority in the draft, and I would target my 1st round pick to fill it.
H) Open competition between Richard Marshall and Clemons for the FS spot. loser of the competition is trade bait, or hits the waiver wire if no takers.
I) LDE is a priority for Free Agency, and an effort to use at least 2 picks in the first 5 rounds for depth on the Defensive Line is a must. My first round Draft target is in this order: CB, DE, BPA
J) Cut Richie Incognito if he refuses a paycut.
K) No more free agent dollars on the offensive line. Identify 3rd day draft prospects (5th round and beyond), and attempt to plug LG that way if Incognito walks.
L) a Real open competition at RG.
M) J. Martin is on probation. Find a veteran presence that can be a swing tackle and make Martin earn back his RT spot over this Vet.
N) Seek savings from Carpenters' salary. Teams seem to find Kickers everywhere. Be one of those teams that doesn't pay a premium for the position.

 

No, it's a smart idea. You see, because everyone in the world will disagree with it, and therefore that makes it a smart idea.