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2013 NFL Draft Thread

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by UCF FINatic, Jul 23, 2012.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The thing about Shayne Skov against the Ducks is you had to know that he was going to finish the season a lot better than he started, based on the injury recovery. He's slowly getting his legs back. There were points earlier in the season it was painful to watch him because it was clear he wasn't the same.

    Stedman Bailey has 20 freaking touchdowns on the year, with 3 more games to play (including likely bowl game). He's on pace for 26 touchdowns. I can't think of anyone that's ever caught 26 touchdowns especially in recent memory. I know Michael Crabtree caught 22 touchdowns for Texas Tech and I know that Justin Blackmon caught 20 touchdowns two years in a row I think. I thought Dez Bryant got close to that one year.

    Bailey is a pleasure to watch.
     
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  2. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Before Crabtree, I think Larry Fitzgerald was the last guy with 22. He caught at least 1 TD in every game that year IINM. Before that, you have to go back to the 90's when Randy Moss put up 25.
     
  3. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Troy Edwards had 27 TDs for Louisiana Tech
     
  4. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    All good thanks. Hope you're well too. Thanks re: the Olympics. Was a hell of a fortnight. Amazing to be there.
     
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  5. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Boomer what's your opinion in Keenan Allen? I'm personally concerned with his speed (CBs in man coverage always seem to be right on him) and his physicality (very little broken tackles, usually taken down by the first guy). I see that as a bad combo and just wanted to get your opinion. Not saying he won't be a good pro I just don't think I can justify taking him in the top half of round 1.

    Also curious on your thoughts on Terrance Williams and DeAndre Hopkins; I really like both of them and think they could be great additions to our team.
     
  6. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Brandon Jenkins has made himself eligible for the 2013 NFL Draft. A speed rusher at his best that needs a lot of learning and work.
     
  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Who are the elite players in this Draft? I was just wondering about this. Does Keenan Allen really fit that bill? I'm not sure yet.

    Right now the only guys I come up with, based on what I've seen, which is admittedly behind what it usually is because I spent a good 5 weeks or so much more engrossed in other things than football...and I come up with Star Lotulelei, Manti Te'o, Bjoern Werner, Matt Elam and Matt Barkley. Maybe Johnathan Banks belongs in there, but I don't know that yet. I've not taken a strong look at Chance Warmack but I hear he belongs. I consider Andre Ellington to be close to up there.
     
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  8. ajaffe9

    ajaffe9 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    CK, do you see Elam being a SS or FS?
     
  9. ssmiami

    ssmiami Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What do our draft guru's think of Ryan Otten of San Jose St. ,could be a good value mid round pick for TE position.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Probably either, especially in a system like Miami's, but more likely a strong safety.
     
  11. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I'm not sure any of those you note are worthy of the elite label (besides Banks; haven't seen Warmack).
     
  12. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Been a fan of Matt Elam for a while. Florida might have the best defense in college football, and he's a huge reason why.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If not them, who?
     
  14. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I'm honestly not sure?
     
  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm really enamored with that specific Stanford team, to lose a Qb the caliber of luck and practically not miss a beat, is just crazy to me..there's something going on with that teams character and talent, and I truly believe our franchise is desperate for players like Skov, Thomas, and Taylor..self motivating,intelligent, tough mother fu&$ers..

    I know it sounds crazy, but I would target Stanford players in this draft...

    Take a hard look at Ertz as well, even though I think Eifert is better.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Someone has to be drafted top 5 or top 10. The teams in the top 5 or 10 can't just abstain because they don't think there's anyone worthy. Though that would be interesting.

    I'm just trying to pick out the guys that stand out relative to everyone else. I think Star Lotulelei does stand out relative to the group as do Manti Te'o and Bjoern Werner. I think Matt Barkley is the best quarterback of the group. I think Matt Elam and Phillip Thomas are the best safeties of the group. Johnathan Banks is the best corner of the group. Quinton Patton is probably the best WR of the seniors but Keenan Allen will probably come out and go above him. Tyler Eifert the best TE of the group. Andre Ellington has been the most special tailback talent I've looked at all year, even if he is small-ish.

    Someone has to go top 5 or top 10.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I am definitely in the minority but I have consistently liked Levine Toilolo more than Zach Ertz. And Shayne Skov more than Chase Thomas, for that matter.
     
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  18. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Elite IMO: Joeckel, Star, Te'o, Da'Rick Rogers, Jonathan Cooper.

    Sub Elite: Werner, Ansah, Jarvis Jones, Elam, Damontre Moore, CJ Mosley, Milliner, Johnathan Hankins, Keenan Allen, Geno Smith, Jordan Reed (as far as Hbacks go), Tavon Austin (as far as Xfactors/slot receivers go), and Ellington (as far as COP backs go. Andre has better natural running ability than Spiller had at Clemson)

    Dark Horse: Chase Thomas, Xavier Rhodes, Carradine, Alec Ogletree, Sylvester Williams (reminds me of Randy Starks), Justin Hunter.

    Personally, I can't put Barkley in an elite type category.
     
  19. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I don't see a significant difference between Skov and Kuechly.
    At times I feel like I'm watching Kuechly when Stanford's playing TBH.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Is that supposed to be a bad thing though?
     
  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Nope. Call me racist but I believe this is a case of the linebacker getting less attention b/c he's pasty. lol
     
  22. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I know what you're saying, I'm just implying that it's wide open.
     
  23. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    For me, Star, T'eo and Jarvis Jones. I'm not sure I see any other elite players. Certainly not Barkley.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really? You don't like Barkley? I've never heard you mention that before. :)
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Personally I keep WANTING to like Jarvis Jones but I'm not seeing the Von Miller or Aldon Smith type impact player there that everyone wants me to see. I like him a lot actually, but not sure I'd put him in class with Te'o, Werner, Lotulelei, Barkley, Elam/Thomas, etc...
     
  26. NolesNPhinsFan

    NolesNPhinsFan New Member

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    As an FSU fan, I'd like to know if we could go Werner, or Rhodes for Round 1, even though Ryan needs weapons? Also, Hopkins to replace Carp maybe? Sorry for the homerism..
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Bjoern Werner would be a smart pick just on a talent basis. Not sure about Rhodes yet.
     
  28. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    He he. I really thing he's had a very average season and his flaws have shown up time and again.

    But I get that I'm also a moaning old woman when it comes to him.
     
  29. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You know for me, every season I see a good old, solid, productive college football player who is balling every week who may not have the perceived upside of quote 'bigger time players' who have the look yet not the production, but year after year after year these solid kids produce. We talk about them as if they're not going to make it big like the upside guys and yet year after year they do. Duane Brown, JJ Watt, Mark Barron, Patrick Willis, etc.

    I remember endlessly talking up Watt and people saying 'yeah but this and but that'. Hell, I'm the same. Look at the Willis draft.....I thought Quinn and Ginn were Jesus 1 and Jesus 2......

    Essentially my point is this: don't make the same mistake with Manti T'eo. This kid is really, really good.
     
  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    If i recall it was more like Jesus 1 and Jesus A.
     
  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The problem is that those perceptions can manipulated any number of ways. I mean hell I thought of Patrick Willis as one of those few players you see every year that you can think of as being "rare" because in addition to being an awesome football player he had off-the-charts measurables. Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson as well. The problem? I also considered Ted Ginn to be one of those "rare" guys because he had (and still does have) speed that is highly uncommon even at the NFL level. So much for that. I think I made the case that year that for better or worse, Jamarcus Russell (arm strength), Adrian Peterson (viciousness & physical prowess), Calvin Johnson (talent & physical prowess), Patrick Willis (talent & physical prowess), Ted Ginn (pure speed) and Amobi Okoye (age) were all guys in that draft that had rare traits you don't see every year. That doesn't mean I liked all of them, I really hated Jamarcus Russell a whole, whole lot. But it just goes to show you because to me a Patrick Willis wasn't your bread-and-butter man but was actually quite flashy because at his size and with his instincts and physicality he had 4.3 speed. Darrelle Revis would be more an example to me of a guy that was always just a really good football player but who didn't have flash or glamour as a prospect...yet may have ended up the best football player in that whole Draft.

    Along those lines you mention a Manti Te'o as just a really good football player nobody should fall asleep on...and when I watch him play I've always thought to myself this is the flash guy. This is the Brian Urlacher, the guy with ridiculous wheels and tailback-like agility that can take false steps and not have it matter because he's just that physically dominant. Shayne Skov on the other hand has been the guy that's just a really good football player, talented but not flashy and just gets it done. Same with Luke Kuechly.

    And my instincts tell me the next guy that's going to make it onto that list of yours is Bjoern Werner.
     
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  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Along those lines, let me offer a mock draft of Miami's part in the first 105 picks.

    1st Round (High Pick): DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State - The most complete defensive end in the Draft. He's not just your typical smart/high motor white guy at defensive end. His take-off from the blocks and reactions to the snap are consistently among the best I've seen. He has the pure ability to blow by guys like they're standing still, but he combines that with good eyes for and immediate reaction to the action in the backfield, and excellent hand use. He slimmed down this year and looks more explosive than ever, while still being a wrecking ball against the run, and having the same knack for getting his hands up and batting passes that you see in a J.J. Watt. There have been times they've put him up in a two point stance and allowed him freedom in his rush, and the results have been spectacular. Werner will be terrorizing offenses for the next decade. He's the perfect complement to Cameron Wake, who by the way will turn 31 years old before this year's Super Bowl is played. You do have to start thinking about which defensive end will take over and be dominant when Cameron Wake starts to fall off, which could happen as soon as three or four years from now. He has an A+ character background as well. He became the architect of his own future NFL career at 15 to 16 years old. Nobody did anything for him in terms of figuring out how best to go from being a club sports football player in Berlin to a prep school and college football player in America. He literally did that all by himself, even found his own funding so that when he made his case to his parents he could tell them they didn't have to pay for anything. And he's already married, which is considered a good thing from a character standpoint where NFL scouts are concerned.

    2nd Round (High Pick): CB Desmond Trufant, Washington - Mr. Trufant is becoming a popular man, as I've mentioned before. If you try and wait for him to fall down the boards you may miss out. I also like Terry Hawthorne around this area of the Draft, and that may come into play because you may not even get Trufant at the top of the 2nd round. Corners with his kind of movement ability, burst, explosiveness and innate physicality tend to rise. There may not be enough corners in this Draft with his level of speed, either. Down the road if he's not working out as a corner, you can probably move him to free safety and still get production out of him. He has the hips for either spot.

    2nd Round (Low Pick): WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech - This is a guy that I have had to slowly get more and more familiar with as a player because I hadn't done any preseason work on him. The more I saw, the more I liked what I saw. He's got excellent foot quickness and balance. The quickness helps him make a lot of people miss with the ball in his hands. He's actually got underrated size. The only weakness and the reason you'd get him this far down the board to begin with is his deep speed and inability to create separation with straight up speed. Still it wouldn't surprise me if he were gone by the time we reached this pick. I envision Patton as a guy that could work the slot or the split end position and provide just as much at those positions as we would see from Davone Bess or Brian Hartline. Eventually he should be a better player than either.

    3rd Round (High Pick): WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State - This receivers unit needs an overhaul. I think we can agree on that. Absent a considerable free agent signing (Greg Jennings?), I'm looking at conducting the overhaul through the Draft. Wheaton is one of the most explosive wide receivers in this Draft. He's lightning speed and quickness combined with a knack for pulling in the ball despite physical coverage. He has a lot of the same foot quickness as Patton but with more long speed but less size. You could imagine these two working together for a while. The problem for Wheaton is he could be anywhere from Mike Wallace all the way down to Tiquan Underwood. You don't know how he'll handle the physicality of the NFL at his size (6'0", 190 lbs) until he actually gets there. But this guy can blow the top off zone coverage, and unlike what you see in some other burners, he can run routes. An alternative to taking Wheaton here could be to go after Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller some time later. Fuller is a natural athlete with blazing speed and I have always found him a more compelling player than his more impressively sized counterpart, Marcus Davis. Fuller is on a fast ascent after starting out a track and field player then converting to football.

    3rd Round (Low Pick): RB Dennis Johnson, Arkansas - Dennis Johnson has spent so much time on my radar screen that, quite frankly, no matter which team he goes to I will be glad to see him finally out of the college football ranks. I have had a high grade on his potential as a running back since he embarrassed the Florida Gators repeatedly with broken tackles back in 2009. Questions about work ethic and a few injuries have kept him from reaching his potential, but to me he's still like a 215 lbs version of Darren Sproles. He has the same quickness at a bigger size and with uncanny tackle breaking ability fueled by his ever-churning feet. He's become a pretty damn good blocker over the years as well. I like that he's been through the school of hard knocks a little bit at Arkansas, with some disappointment along the way, some lessons learned. In the NFL at his position, success is fleeting and you're not often given the chance to be "the man" by yourself. But this guy is going to be a steal wherever he goes, you can mark me on that. Miami appears set to let Reggie Bush walk and Daniel Thomas is not even worth a roster spot. I'm as high on Lamar Miller as anyone but he can't be your only guy and both he and Jonas Gray are big question marks at this point. It can't hurt to bolster this position.

    4th Round (High Pick): LB Jake Knott, Iowa State - This is a natural replacement for Kevin Burnett some time down the road when the Dolphins decide Burnett isn't making enough plays relative to his pay grade. Knott is as a pass covering linebacker almost exactly what Luke Kuechly was, in terms of instincts and ability. The difference is that Kuechly had better ability as a run stopper. But in today's game, especially if the Dolphins already have a wall of force on the front lines with Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Bjoern Werner, Karlos Dansby and Koa Misi, then having the kind of plus instincts you get from a coverage linebacker in the short areas of the field can be the difference between a pretty good defense and a championship defense. Teams love to throw the football around in the short areas of the field like extended run plays. They love option routes. Getting some linebackers that can show the instincts and ball skills to take the football away in those areas is a premium.
     
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  33. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    That'd be a pretty solid haul, CK. Which means the actual Dolphins draft won't resemble it in any way :(
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Depending on who the GM is, lol.

    The position I've left conspicuously absent is the guard spots. The Dolphins may just have to hit free agency to find what they need there.
     
  35. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    The lack of talent at the Guard position still makes me wonder about waiving Donald Thomas and not signing Will Shields. Hind site being 20/20, also about not drafting Carl Nicks a few years ago, given that he fell to the 5th round. As to Jake Knott, I like him and iirc there's another Iowa St. LB worth a look as well. I'd also look at Sean Porter, as both a pass rusher and a coverage LB.

    For the FSU fans out there, what's the story with Xavier Rhodes and the CB/KR who was kicked off the team earlier this year?
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Going back to my original construct in terms of holes on the roster and filling them, my conservative estimate of only about $40 million in salary cap space prior to cuts and draft picks...keeping in mind my admission that not all of it could be done in one off season...

    QB 1 - Ryan Tannehill
    QB 2 - Pat Devlin
    QB 3 - Collin Klein (late 6th)

    RB 1 - Lamar Miller
    RB 2 - Dennis Johnson (low 3rd)
    RB 3 - Jonas Gray
    FB 1 - Jorvorskie Lane

    TE 1 - Jared Cook ($5.5 mil/yr)
    TE 2 - Charles Clay
    TE 3 - Michael Egnew
    TE 4 - Phil Lutzenkirchen (4th/5th - Bess Trade)

    WR 1 - Brian Hartline ($4.5 mil/yr)
    WR 2 - Quinton Patton (low 2nd)
    WR 3 - Markus Wheaton (high 3rd)
    WR 4 - Rishard Matthews
    WR 5 - Marlon Moore

    LT 1 - Jake Long ($11.0 mil/yr)
    LG 1 - Evan Dietrich-Smith ($3.0 mil/yr)
    OC 1 - Mike Pouncey
    RG 1 - Andy Levitre ($5.0 mil/yr)
    RT 1 - Jonathan Martin
    OL 6 - Josh Samuda
    OL 7 - John Jerry
    OL 8 - Will Yeatman
    OL 9 - Jeff Adams

    DT 1 - Randy Starks ($7.5 mil/yr)
    DT 2 - Paul Solial
    DT 3 - Jared Odrick
    DT 4 - Kheeston Randall

    LE 1 - Cameron Wake
    RE 1 - Bjoern Werner (high 1st)
    DE 3 - Derrick Shelby
    DE 4 - Antwaan Barnes ($1.5 mil/yr)
    DL 9 - Cameron Meredith (mid 7th)

    LB 1 - Karlos Dansby
    LB 2 - Kevin Burnett
    LB 3 - Koa Misi
    LB 4 - Jake Knott (high 4th)
    LB 5 - Olivier Vernon (hybrid)
    LB 6 - Austin Spitler
    LB 7 - A.J. Klein (high 5th)

    CB 1 - Sean Smith ($7.0 mil/yr)
    CB 2 - Desmond Trufant (High 2nd)
    CB 3 - Michael Adams ($3.0 mil/yr)
    CB 4 - Nolan Carroll
    CB 5 - Jimmy Wilson

    FS 1 - Richard Marshall
    SS 1 - Reshad Jones
    SS 2 - Chris Crocker ($1.0 mil/yr)
    FS 2 - Corey Broomfield (high 7th)

    PK - ____________ (I never look at this position in the Draft)
    P - Brandon Fields
    LS - John Denney
    KR - Marcus Thigpen

    Note: Boik14 convinced me on a few of these guys (e.g. Levitre, Cook, Klein). I'm not saying this is the absolute best way to go, but it's certainly one way to go. A note on the accounting. I have $40 million in cap space pre-rookies and pre-cuts. I have cuts/trades amounting to $10 million (Incognito, Bess and Carpenter). I have $49 million per year in long term average salaries tied up in acquisitions/re-signings. This means I've left only $1 million for rookies. However, I believe the $49 million in new contracts can be discounted at a rate of ~85% of long term average, because first year salary cap numbers are often discounted relative to final year numbers. Combine that normal salary cap massaging, with whatever rollover the Dolphins have from 2012, and I believe there is not only room for the rookies but also some wiggle room for emergency use.
     
  37. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Collin Klein is an interesting case. Great size, good runner, dual threat QB. To me it's a similar case as per Tim Tebow- do the positive qualities (athleticism, winner, etc.) outweigh the arm deficiencies? My conclusion was that with Tebow, they did. The body of work at UF showed in my opinion a throwing motion that lacked fluidity and was awkward but it got the job done, and he made some great throws to Percy Harvin, et al. But Klein- I want to be on board with him, kind of like I want to be on board with Ezekiel Ansah, but there's a Danny Wuerffel/Frank Costa element to Klein's arm that's a bit much for me. I have to see more, but I would refer to Klein's arm as troubling, and limited.

    That being said, I will say that he's an intriguing prospect. The QB who really sparks my attention is Johnny Manziel, what a player. I'm curious as to where Tyler Wilson and Knile Davis from Arkansas will end up in the draft, and although I'm still not a big Matt Barkley fan, I will say that he unleashed a bomb a few weeks ago that got my attention as per his arm strength.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't in any way consider Klein a real quarterback to be trained as if he's going to take over the job one day. If Ryan Tannehill were to get hurt or something like that, I would be on the horn with veterans to be insurance against Pat Devlin quicker than a hiccup.

    I just think Collin Klein is the version of Tim Tebow without the cult of personality. I've always been intrigued with the concept of utilizing a player like that in short yardage and goal line situations. And I liked what the Jets were doing with Tebow on special teams...until it became apparent they probably should have taught him how to block.

    I don't believe Manziel is eligible.

    If you miss out on Collin Klein because the hype train really gets going and you don't want to bid up on him...then you can always pick up B.J. Daniels and train him as a tailback, and get some of the same things out of him. Pretty fantastic feet on him, and a gun for an arm, though obviously not accurate.
     
  39. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Yeah, Manziel is a freshman, I'm just saying that I like him quite a bit. Your points are well taken about Klein, he has an intriguing skill set. What do you know about DE Ryne Giddens from your neck of the woods at USF? Also, congrats on your wedding, best wishes. I was in Kobe and Tokyo 25 years ago, it was interesting then as I assume Japan still is now. "Lost in Translation" captured the American experience over there pretty well imo. Hope you had fun.
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Thanks. I haven't taken a deep look at Ryne Giddins but he's always struck me as just a good college player that could be a backup at the next level. Not someone that stuck out like a sore thumb like JPP did.

    I keep hearing how accurate and great Lost in Translation is in terms of an American in Japan but the one thing I keep thinking when I hear that is how gloomy the movie was for the characters because of their home life situations, the language and culture barriers, etc. Was a good movie, really liked it, but I can't really compare our experience in Japan with it because A) We're newlyweds so we're not in that kind of morose/gloomy/bad homelife situation, and B) I had a ****ing blast there being endlessly entertained by all the cultural differences. I wasn't frustrated at all.
     

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