No problem with that. I can try and have fun with it, too, bubs. To which I'd reply, yes, it was a great game, but it's only 1 game, an anomaly, and I'd remove it in order to shed better light on his season considering: a)that game will account for more than 1/5 his total production. b) consistency is significantly more important to success than a random huge game that he will never see again. c) 80 yards of it, his lone TD of the season so far, was due to severely blown coverage. I'm not taking away from the Zona game, but at the same time I won't pay him big money b/c of one game. I'm more of a throw out the high & low and then average it out kinda guy. why stop there? Why not ask for DeSean Jackson money? If we could suddenly give Hartine Antonio Brown's ability then I'd gladly pay him Antonio Brown money or close to it. to which I'd reply that 2.27 number is growing smaller and smaller the further away we get from the stat-inflated Zona game. Zona might rank 12th on paper, but breaking down the game you see Hartline was typically matched up against either rookie nickel corner Jamell Flemming (playing in his 4th game) or backup corner Greg Toler (who didn't play in 2011) and rarely against Peterson. On top of that, Philbin & Sherman came out with a great game plan that Zona didn't seem prepared for, obviously the case b/c our rookie QB threw for 431 yards in just his 4th NFL game and not b/c he suddenly became Tom Brady. Further skewing Zona's pass yards allowed is the fact they faced some terrible passing offenses: seattle 32nd, Minnesota 30th, San Fran 27th, Buffalo 23rd, StLouis 21st, and an Eagles offense that's had problems all year. Rams might rank 18th but they have 2 good cover corners in Finnegan and the rookie Jenkins, and they completely took Hartline out of the game w/o any help IIRC. I mentioned Cincinnati (Terence Newman & Leon Hall) and Buffalo (1st rounder Stephon Gilmore & high 2nd rounder Aaron Williams) b/c they're better cover corners than the weak stuff Hartline saw most of the game vs Zona in Toler & Flemming, Oakland (30th ranked vs #1 WRs), Tenn (31st), Indy (24th *per FootballOutsiders). Buffalo hadn't looked good for the first half, but Mario Williams wasn't healthy; they're adjusting to both a new DC and transition to 4-3; and Gilmore has improved significantly which isn't surprising considering he's a top 10 pick. Hartline was outmatched against these corners, and, as such, if he can't beat good corners consistently enough for the offense to be successful, he doesn't deserve to be paid as though he's good enough to beat good corners consistently. The way he WILL consistently win matchups and be an asset to the team is if he can be put on nickel/backup corners like he was throughout the Zona game or against the Raiders and against safeties & LBs, and for that to happen he needs to be the 3rd or 4th receiving target, and #3/#4 receivers unfortunately aren't worth $4+ million/year. I understand your concern with "data mining" but I don't see that as the case. Hartline had 25 catches for 302 yards (no TDs) against 3 secondaries ranked 31st, 30th, and 24th against opposing #1 WRs. Then you add in the crazy Zona game where not only did our rookie QB have a career yardage game but Bess had his single highest yardage output of his career, too.... so that game merits being taken with a giant grain of salt. When I look at the remaining 6 games that don't involve an anomaly and aren't against poor coverage, I see a more telling story, which is the aforementioned 16 catches on 35 targets(46%) for 240 yards, 6.86 yards/attempt. That's entirely too inconsistent to be paid more than $3.5M/year. It leaves me wondering which Hartline I'll be getting on a weekly basis. Do I get the one who 40% of the time is productive in the yardage department or do I get the one who 60% of the time isn't worth $1.0M/year.... and if I were paying him on touchdowns he'd be earning the league minimum. If he's gonna give me a $7.0M performance one game and $1.0M performance the next, then that's a $3.5M receiver in my eyes. Fair point..... to which I'd say, if he's worth the money you're asking for, he'd still be productive despite Marshall on the field. I'd further my point by mentioning how, even though Marshall was here for 2 years, the depth at WR behind Hartline and Bess was shallow, weak, and saw minimal action, hence helping to balance out the Marshall factor. On top of that, Marshall caught only 86 passes in 2010 and 81 in 2011. I'd also argue that with Brandon receiving so much attention it should've been easier for Hartline to have greater production and especially more TDs than just 1 each year; however, despite having the 12th rated passer at the helm (which was better than 12th over the final 8 games), Hartline had 5 games that averaged 14.8 yards/game. I'd point out how $2.34M per year Davone Bess is also seeing a significant bump in production, but he's still the same 'ole Davone Bess. The lack of depth at WR allowing for more opportunities is obviously padding both receivers stats as it should, but their individual success doesn't translate into overall passing success in this case. Then I'd compare Bess & Hartline's complete careers, and despite Hartline's greater yards/attempt, his production has been inferior, and it wasn't Marshall who kept Hartline back, it was Hartline b/c he couldn't even steal production away from $2.34M Bess who was able to produce 52 more receptions & 6 more TDs than Hartline during Marshall's stay, and Bess was still able to haul in 130 passes compared to Brandon's 167. Bess since '09: 254 catches, 2701 yards, 11 TDs. Hartline: 162 catches, 2460 yards, 6 TDs. Bess has produced more catches, yards, and TDs.... and Hartline stepping it up during his contract year isn't enough to overshadow his overall inferior production to Bess. Of course I wouldn't put it in those words. lol. Hartline's higher yards per target is nice, but he still has less yards and scores since '09. Plus, if the receiver is not a threat to score [like Hartline], I'd rather have the guy with more catches, more yards, and more TDs considering the last time I checked it only takes 10 yards to move the chains. .... to which I'd respond, if you're asking for that much money you better be able to catch a lot of those passes like great receivers do rather than flopping for flags. Don't get me wrong, I'd be nothing but tactful & civil in a real negotiations. I'd boot myself out of a meeting if I negotiated the way I'm talking now. lol That's quite understandable..... but I'd point out the fact that over the past 3 years he's had the ball in his hands 134 times but only managed 3 TDs, and while the yards per target are nice, the game is won by scoring. Considering Incognito isn't his personal blocker on the perimeter, I'd put that abomination of a stat solely on Hartline. Making matters worse he rarely to never sees bracketed coverage, meaning his opportunities to score shouldn't be minimized by his defenders. If Hartline's agent wants $5-$6 million per year, I'd give it to him; I'd pay him a base of $3.5M + $500k per every TD after the first one. If you're good enough to warrant $5+ million then you should be good enough to score 4+ TDs or at least offer the playmaking ability potential that would such production should the team's current primary scorer (like Mike Wallace) leave the team. This is definitely true, but Manningham still scores, and perhaps Eli's presence more than offsets Manningham's 47 more catches, 619 more yards, and 15 more TDs than Hartline. I respectfully don't see that. Brown put up those numbers despite having Wallace, Hines, Sanders, Cotchery, and Miller eating the pie, too. That's a lot of diners. Antonio Brown was only 75 yards shy of Wallace. For Hartline to use Brown as a rationalization for $43 million, he'd either have to ask for it over 12 years or have produced Brown-like numbers with Brandon Marshall on the field just as Brown did with Wallace. It's hard to fully respect his stats when they're unimpeded in comparison to Brown's. Very good points. I'd start with a similar offer to what we gave Bess, and I'd budge all the way up to 3 year/$11.0M.... and if I had to I'd throw in incentives. Miami won't want to commit to a long term contract to where they feel there's a chance for overpaying; meanwhile Hartline and his agent wont want to commit to being underpaid over the long term, so what I think is likely to happen is he signs a 2 year $7.25M deal. It gives him a chance to prove his true worth and possibly build off this season so that in 2 years from now he'll be 28 and tying down a nice 4 year deal [if he merits it].
Sure, I definitely think it could be possible. It's possible, but if I had to guess one reason it's b/c Miami didn't want to pay his asking price to only be a backup DT in our new 4-3 switch.
This is not a statistical practice that carries a lot of validity. I can see throwing out the 80 yard touchdown because of a blown coverage and isolating how much one play is affecting his season. But an entire game? As if he shouldn't get credit for going Hercules on a pass defense that is actually kind of good? I don't get that, and I don't expect very many teams would argue it on the negotiations table. You say you're a throw out the best-and-worst kind of guy, but you clearly are jumping all over Brian Hartline's goose egg performance against the St. Louis Rams, so instead of looking like you're out to reveal truth, it comes off looking like you're out to manipulate data. That's an excellent point. DeSean Jackson is another guy I would raise if I were Hartline's agent, as another wide receiver who makes big plays down the field but not necessarily touchdowns, and clearly commands a high league value. I would thank you for bringing up DeSean's name, if I already hadn't. That's a mistake on your part. Again I have to go back to your outwardly biased statistical practices, admitting you're a throw the best-and-worst data points out kind of guy, and throwing the best game out, while not throwing the worst game out. Personally, I think the only play I'd be willing to throw out is the 80 yard play because it was so obviously a function of a blown coverage by Kerry Rhodes. If you throw that play out, he still averages 2.05 yards per pass snap which is absolutely an elite level stat based on my experience having run the stat across the league for three or four years. Even if you go with your method of throwing out the best and worst games, the Arizona and St. Louis games, that only brings his average to 2.01 yards per pass snap. Either way, he's obviously being a productive and CONSISTENT player if those things are true.
I think probably worth noting in the context of this thread that there's a decent potential that Jermichael Finley could be available this season. He was signed to a two-year dear last year, but the second year the price goes up and the Packers essentially have an option to pay a bonus to retain him. He's also been a bit of a malcontent, lamenting his lack of chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, and his agent going so far to criticize his leadership skills. I've got kind of mixed feelings about Finley. On one hand, it's a young player at a position of need, and Philbin knows him. On the other hand he appears to be somewhat of a malcontent and drops a lot of ****ing passes.
It's sexy...but it's a tough one that we have to trust Philbin on. He knows him, so whatever he says, I would buy. My same attitude with Flynn. Finley will look like one of the best TE's in the game one week, and then you wonder if he got injured the next, when he fails to show up in any meaningful way. if we acquire him, I am inclined to think that it will be a success,since we will have as much if not more info than the Packers themselves.
I think if this season ends the way I think it's going to end, and a new GM comes in like I think one will, there will be more of an effort to surround Joe Philbin with familiar players that he can trust to run his offense. The pairing of Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley might be kind of the poster children for that effort. But considering the fact Finley is already under contract, and considering how many extra draft picks the Dolphins have, Finley would IMO be more likely as a trade than a guy that gets cut and comes to us as a free agent. Derek Sherrod could be thrown in on that trade, especially if the new GM makes the decision to part ways with Jake Long.
One thing that was curiously absent from the Dolphins' strategy this off season with respect to personnel was the usual effort you see to surround a new Head Coach with players he's coached before and with whom he has a relationship, so that he'll have a leg up in installing the kind of system he wants. Seems like the most the Dolphins did on that front was host Matt Flynn for a visit (then low ball him), and bring in a guy on his last legs that Philbin hadn't coached in a decade (Steinbach). I'm not the first person that's brought this up by any means. I'm not going to speculate on the why's or turn this into another Ireland bashing thing, or even get too far into what players could have been acquired. I only bring it up because I wonder if the Dolphins do move on with a new General Manager, and especially if that General Manager comes out of the Green Bay system (Russ Ball), will there be an effort to do that after all? There easily could be. Greg Jennings is prime example #1 there, as he's an unrestricted free agent. I would think speculation would be rampant that the Dolphins are interested in signing him as soon as free agency begins. I have been speculating since early in this season that Jermichael Finley could be a trade target because of the souring relationship between he and Aaron Rodgers. The trade deadline is passed but that doesn't mean it couldn't still happen next off season. The Packers still have four other tight ends they feel are roster worthy in D.J. Williams, Andrew Quarless, Tom Crabtree and Ryan Taylor. Finley is just not doing well this year and it could be time for a scenery switch. There is clearly something going on between he and Aaron Rodgers, something that saw Finley's agent calling Rodgers out explicitly pre-season as not a good leader. Other players have commented that they think there's definitely something going on between the two that is hurting the offense. Rodgers is a strong personality and so is Finley. It doesn't have to be anyone's fault. I think Tannehill is a little more copacetic than an Aaron Rodgers, personality-wise. And if we're not talking about Jermichael Finley there is still the glut of other tight ends over there, including Tom Crabtree who should be a restricted free agent this off season. We will see what kind of tender they give him. He was an UDFA originally so the inclination will be to give him the 2nd round tender, but maybe the Packers just feel they can't afford that. And maybe the Dolphins would rather have a Tom Crabtree than an Anthony Fasano. Not saying he's better, but he might be cheaper, as would befit a guy that should really be your #2 TE at best. When you look at the OL situation over there, Marshall Newhouse and Bryan Bulaga are getting more entrenched as the starting tackles, with T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton performing very well at guard, which leaves former 2011 1st rounder Derek Sherrod out in the cold. The only potential opening on the OL is at center where Jeff Saturday is ancient, but obviously Sherrod is not a candidate at that spot. Yeah I'm sure he's a valuable swing tackle backup, but there could also be an urge to monetize him. He could be a trade target, as could Evan Dietrich-Smith. There's obviously a lack of trust going on with some of the RBs right now. Brandon Jackson may not be a talented running back (he's physically impressive in that he's built well and is fast) but he was always a reliable player in Green Bay under Joe Philbin when it came to pass protection and being a part of the passing game. If there's a discomfort with Reggie Bush then the new GM could look to acquire Brandon Jackson (who I believe is a UFA again out of Cleveland) and have him assume that Daniel Thomas-like role while the Dolphins try and experiment with Lamar Miller as a rushing yard gainer.
While your Sig is incredible, your logic is off. Bess is ok, but we could find a similar type of player somewhere in Montana or a "similar" area. Ya know.
Evan Dietrich-Smith is a unrestricted free-agent I believe. He can definitely be brought in. I also wonder if the new GM will be wise enough to do the same on the defensive side of the ball with Coyle. Maybe bring in Michael Johnson, Rey Maualuga, or Manny Lawson.
I told everyone Danny Amendola was better 3 years ago, and y'all won't listen. Sent from my MB855 using Tapatalk 2
We're talking about a guy whose career season has him rocking 8.1 yards a reception, and has 3 receptions over 20 yards this year to Bess' 7.
I don't expect the Dolphins to bring in Jennings or trade for Finley. It appears to me that the team was more than willing to accomodate Philbin's personnel desires, e.g., trading away BMarshall, but I don't think he values WR all that much. I think he sees them as largely system guys if they fit the basic mold of what he is looking for -- reliable, good routes, catches the ball, etc. Yes, Jennings fits that description too, but I think he'll cost more than this team will be willing to pay him. I could see this being like the Matt flynn thing -- bring him for a visit, make a lowball offer and watch him sign elsewhere. While Jennings is a good WR, he's not special in any way (size, speed, strength, elusiveness, etc.) And the truth is that he has pretty much missed the entire season (or been invisible when he has played) and the Packers passing game really hasn't missed a beat (even without Jennings and Nelson). Rodgers is quietly on pace for a 4200 yard, 43 TD season with a passer rating of 107. Yeah, that's a tad below his historic season last year but IMO is not a drop that can be attributed to problems with his receivers. I think Philbin is probably unsurprised by the relative fungibility of the Packer receivers. I don't know him personally, but I get the impression that Finley is a bit of a douche and is not really Philbin's kind of guy. And I think Philbin also realizes that the Packers did just fine without him in their Super Bowl run. Finley has been largely invisible this year. I just don't see him as someone we'd trade for.
Going back to my original construct in terms of holes on the roster and filling them, my conservative estimate of only about $40 million in salary cap space prior to cuts and draft picks...keeping in mind my admission that not all of this fixing could be done ideally in one off season...I'm not saying this is the absolute best way to go, but it's certainly one way to go, cohesive within itself in a way. QB 1 - Ryan Tannehill QB 2 - Pat Devlin QB 3 - Collin Klein, KSU (late 6th) RB 1 - Lamar Miller RB 2 - Dennis Johnson, Arkansas (low 3rd) RB 3 - Jonas Gray FB 1 - Jorvorskie Lane TE 1 - Jared Cook ($5.5 mil/yr) TE 2 - Charles Clay TE 3 - Michael Egnew TE 4 - Phil Lutzenkirchen, Auburn (4th/5th - Bess Trade) WR 1 - Brian Hartline ($4.5 mil/yr) WR 2 - Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech (low 2nd) WR 3 - Markus Wheaton, Oregon State (high 3rd) WR 4 - Rishard Matthews WR 5 - Marlon Moore LT 1 - Jake Long ($11.0 mil/yr) LG 1 - Evan Dietrich-Smith ($3.0 mil/yr) OC 1 - Mike Pouncey RG 1 - Andy Levitre ($5.0 mil/yr) RT 1 - Jonathan Martin OL 6 - Josh Samuda OL 7 - John Jerry OL 8 - Will Yeatman OL 9 - Jeff Adams DT 1 - Randy Starks ($7.5 mil/yr) DT 2 - Paul Solial DT 3 - Jared Odrick DT 4 - Kheeston Randall LE 1 - Cameron Wake RE 1 - Bjoern Werner, FSU (high 1st) DE 3 - Derrick Shelby DE 4 - Antwaan Barnes ($1.5 mil/yr) DL 9 - Cameron Meredith, Nebraska (mid 7th) LB 1 - Karlos Dansby LB 2 - Kevin Burnett LB 3 - Koa Misi LB 4 - Jake Knott, Iowa State (high 4th) LB 5 - Olivier Vernon (hybrid) LB 6 - Austin Spitler LB 7 - A.J. Klein, Iowa State (high 5th) CB 1 - Sean Smith ($7.0 mil/yr) CB 2 - Desmond Trufant, Washington (High 2nd) CB 3 - Michael Adams ($3.0 mil/yr) CB 4 - Nolan Carroll CB 5 - Jimmy Wilson FS 1 - Richard Marshall SS 1 - Reshad Jones SS 2 - Chris Crocker ($1.0 mil/yr) FS 2 - Corey Broomfield, Mississippi State (high 7th) PK - ____________ (I never look at this position in the Draft) P - Brandon Fields LS - John Denney KR - Marcus Thigpen Note: Boik14 convinced me on a few of these guys (e.g. Levitre, Cook, Klein). A note on the accounting. I have $40 million in cap space pre-rookies and pre-cuts. I have cuts/trades amounting to $10 million (Incognito, Bess and Carpenter). I have $49 million per year in long term average salaries tied up in acquisitions/re-signings. This means I've left only $1 million for rookies. However, I believe the $49 million in new contracts can be discounted at a rate of ~85% of long term average, because first year salary cap numbers are often discounted relative to final year numbers. Combine that normal salary cap massaging, with whatever rollover the Dolphins have from 2012, and I believe there is not only room for the rookies but also some wiggle room for emergency use.
Simply a bone I'm throwing at Kevin Coyle, who seems to adore Chris Crocker for some reason. And in his defense, for some reason, Chris Crocker seems to actually play well under Kevin Coyle. It's a backup safety. I'm not sure anyone here can even name our current backup safeties.
Ball is an interesting name but I'd quite apprehensive to hire a financial guy as GM whom I'd have reservations about his ability to scout & assess talent (including FA) considering his resume in that department is suspect IIRC, if not fully absent.
Well thought out response. I would actually keep Jason Trusnik. He is a stud on special teams. Other than that, I think everything looks good. I'm not sure Long will settle for $11MM nor am I sure I would want him for that much. In terms of draft needs, I say WR, CB, S, DE, G, RB and TE in that order. At some point, one of these Ireland RB draft picks need to step and emerge as a starting RB.
Pierre Garcon just scored an amazing TD , of course he was a poor decision by Washington to be a weapon for their rookie QB ... as least we were told that by some on here . We have NO WR that could have made that made that play.
Unless your a Miami Dolphin homer. You don't make ridiculous comments like that. Amendola in his last healthy season had over 2,000 all purpose yards. And Bess is better huh. How many seasons do we need to combine of Davones to equal that? Do the math then get back to me.
Out of a potential 10, 11 roster spots in the weapons dept, 5 wr, 3 te, 3 backs, were getting poor or no production out of 8 or 9 spots.
First off this is great thread with great discussion and not a bunch of poop flinging. I think it's obvious to everyone this team needs guys who can score from all skill positions. I have hope for Lamar Miller but aside from him the jury is out. If Ireland is retained so be it. He gets one more year to add play makers. If there is not drastic improvement he's got to go. So far I am a big Philbin fan. He doesn't sugarcoat sh*t. He is open and honest. So far this year Clay and wr who are end zone allergic are the problem.
During this 3 game losing streak, the Phins have also lost the TO battle in each game, right? I'm too lazy to look it up myself. We are all harping on the lack of weapons, poor OL blocking, rookie wall for Tanny, etc, and yet the losses all come down to also turning it over more than taking it away.
Hey.... pops.... what gives?! Where's the rest of the picture? Happy f'n Thanksgiving btw.... to you too, Deej. Hey Dougy, you onto the scotch yet?
