And all it takes to confirm that is a simple comparison between how the Dolphins have done as a team and how other teams have done with rookie QBs who played (or are playing) similarly.
I also illustrated in another thread about Bill Polian that his win record without Peyton Manning was 55%. With Peyton it was 77%. For an average of 66%. 55% is 8-8, it further strengthens the argument that having a Franchise QB can make or break a GM and a Team. I think the original chart tells a lot. Nice job!!
Excellent point. More proof that the "Franchise" QB is a must have. The QB makes everyone around him better, not the opposite. He is the leader, the captain of the ship. How many teams do we see week after week who live and die by the QB play. Dallas, Greenbay, Chicago, Denver,NJG,NYJ, etc
The plays are also limited. Even though Tannehill ran this same offense in college it is different in the NFL. Defenses are way more complicated and there are hundreds of check offs and check downs, that he has not learned yet. Tannehill will learn by playing and it may take a couple years to get him where he needs to be. But we are ahead of the curve, lets hope he likes to study because we are going to live and die by this guys play!! My understanding is this is what everyone was screaming for. We have to be patient. It's hard though because no one likes to watch their team loose. The good news is we have seen glimpses of potential. Now that Ireland has total control, it is going to take 1 or 2 yrs to acquire the other pieces. Unfortunately it will be a hard road with some surprises along the way. We have already seen Davis and Marshall traded. I believe we will also see Long traded and Misi and Dansby replaced.
I understand your point, but you obviously haven't read Saban 's novel he calls a Defensive playbook that he still uses. I kid you not when I say it is 300 pages, and covers every single possibility. EDIT: I'd say that NFL D isn't any more complicated, but they do a better job of trying to disguise what they are doing.
Today was a perfect example of what I believe has been the biggest problem with this offense. We saw what the passing offense is capable of when we can successful run the ball. With that said, Tannehill still made too many WTF decisions. But at least we were pushing the ball downfield in chunk yards. IMO a rookie QB needs a reliable running game to succeed. We saw a resemblance of that today. Tannehill looked to move up in the pocket better than usual today. Good to see he's learning. Still too many mistakes but certainly progress
The OL played great today. Was really good to see! They looked like that earlier in the season, but had tailed off. Good to see them get back to it...
Today solidified my opinion that - in future years - will will reap the benefit of Tannehill starting and growing this year. Get the growing pains out of the way now, and benefit sooner. Can't wait.
" he dropped his balls".. Lol, never heard that term.. I know he got dirty, forget trying to make the perfect pass and do whatever's possible to get the first down.
The thing about it though is that neither Tannehill's performance nor the team's (in terms of winning) has correlated all that strongly with how the running game has performed.
Here's what I noticed the past 4 games 2nd half of Indy Entire Tennessee Entire Buffalo 1st Quarter of Seattle In the games or portions of the games I mentioned, our running game was non-existent. Like 1.0 ypc non-existent. Getting dropped for losses on 1st and 10 runs. Dropped for losses on Key 3rd and 1's. And in that time Ryan Tannehill has played his worst football of the season. Starting in the 2nd Quarter, our running game started showing signs of life and even playing very good. And that's when the passing game took off and started getting chunk yardage plays. I don't think that's a coincidence. Shou, don't get me wrong here. Tannehill was not good in either Tennessee or Buffalo, and he wasn't particularly good in the 4th quarter against Indy. Even today he had some decisions that a high school senior wouldn't make. And I agree, he has certainly been part of the problem. BUT....when you have a rookie QB and your running game falls off a cliff like it did somewhere in the middle of the Indy game, then you can't expect him to overcome that. He's a rookie and too young, inexperienced, and just not good enough yet to overcome that major deficiency.
I'm more concerned about the poor decision making. Tannehill is starting to remind me of a young Jay Cutler. He made another huge mistake today that would have cost us the game except for the penalty for the hit to the head which I thought was a very questionable call. That would have taken 7 off the board and we would have most likely lost. It was a bad throw before the hit to the head.
I'm also concerned about the decision making. The INT in the beginning and the INT called back were just horrendously awful decisions. But they're certainly coachable. And Ryan Tannehill seems worlds more coachable than Jay Cutler. So, I choose to be optimistic in that respect
as long as they don't count I won't complain, just noting it. For the record I don't care for Cutler, he was raw in the beginning and reminded me of a spoiled brat. He seems to have turned the corner and is playing much better, the one thing about Cutler that I always admired is he has a cannon for a arm. Not saying Tanne is a spoiled brat, was referring to the tangible parts; arm strength, intelligence, etc.
The int that was called back was a WTF int, but I have seen Brady make WTF ints. Tannehill tried to force a ball that he shouldnt have. He can learn from that and luckily it was negated. What I took from this game is that Ryan percervered and played very well when he was needed the most. He got the 4th quarter win we have been waiting for, when the game was on the line, Tannehill played big. st6epping up in the pocket, running, avoiding pressure. I still say many have to stop looking around at other rookies and young qbs and comparing Tannehill, Luck has a veteran wr and other wrs that can stretch the field and he is a stud, RGIII is the real deal, I liked him from the get last year and really thought he would be good. Wilson is also a guy I said would be a good qb, read my posts pre-draft I said numerous times had Wilson been 6'3" he would be top 5, kid is smart and athletic with a big arm. All that said RT has it. He hyas alot to learn, but this offense as whole needs talent and growth. I like that RT makes no excuses, kept his poise, and doesnt quit. He had a tough stretch yet he didnt lose confidence. Where he goes from here, we will see, but it was a good step forward.
But look at the game-by-game data. Here you have Tannehill's QB rating in one column, and yards per carry by the running backs in the other: [TABLE="width: 111"] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, width: 84, bgcolor: transparent"]QB Rating [/TD] [TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]YPC [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]39 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]4.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]91 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]6.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]50.2 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]4.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]86.5 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]2.7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]92.3 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]2.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]112 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]1.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]90.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]4.9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]42.4 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]4.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]46.9 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]1.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]97.1 [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]6.5 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The correlation there is -.02, which indicates there is no relationship whatsoever between those two variables.
Andrew Luck has made more interceptable passes than Tannehill I assure you. He's just been fortunate to have the majority of them dropped. (Smith n Dansby) on the other hand Luck has also made some really good throws. I'm not worried about Tannys future, at all.
Speaking specifically about the Indy, Tenn, Buffalo, and Seattle games, I'd like to get these numbers by quarter if possible. I'll bet the YPC in the 4th quarter of Indy, and first quarter of Seattle is somewhere around 1.5 - 2.0. That would mean the numbers for the games(quarters) I originally mentioned would be a little more accurate and supportive of my argument. Meaning, the only anomaly would be the Tenn game and the 4.9 YPC.
I think what you'd find if you really delved into it to a great degree is that Tannehill's performance correlates not with how the running game is performing, per se, but with how much the play-calling involves balance between the running game and the pass. Rushing attempts would be a better measure of that, obviously. This is why in yesterday's game I was delighted to see that when the team went down 14-7 and there was this ominous sense of "here we go again," Sherman came out on the ensuing drive with two running plays out of the first three. The team, including Tannehill, needed the message right there that the game wasn't going to be turned over to the rookie quarterback simply because the team was down by a touchdown in the second half. Now, in contrast to that, on the last drive of the game, when it was tied, the opposite needed to be done, and the game needed to be turned over to Tannehill IMO. At that point he needed to carry his team, given the situation, and I was glad to see that the play-calling catered to that in that instance. Tannehill needed to win that game at that point. So again, I think what's needed with a rookie QB is balance on offense, which IMO has an impact not only on the psyche of the rookie QB, but on the other players on offense as well. There are times when the offense needs the message that the rookie QB isn't going to carry it, and that they need to step up, and there are times -- albeit much less frequently -- that the offense needs to see the reins taken off so that they know the goal is still winning in the end, not just the rookie QB's development.
I have the solution. Tannehill throws TDs to all the skill players so they become really highly respected players with great stats. Then everyone will agree we have talented players, and Tannehill will be surrounded by talent.
Since it's becoming such a hot topic, welcome back to the only analysis I'm aware of that's been done to tease apart -- objectively -- the effect on the team of Ryan Tannehill from the talent surrounding him.
This thread has been around for three weeks now, and despite the large contingent of folks who attribute the team's failures to the offensive inadequacies surrounding Ryan Tannehill, no one has come close to providing an objective refutation of the data or the conclusion in the original post. If the team's failures are so obviously and truly due to the talent surrounding Ryan Tannehill, and not to Tannehill himself, it should be only too easy to take the data in the original post and do something with it to support that point of view.
Ah well, I guess when we can't do anything to refute what was in the original post, we're relegated to talking about my behavior, as if that has anything to do with why we're here.
Tannehill is literally on the verge of tying a record for the fewest TD passes by a starting Qb. You tell me.
Uh, the purpose of the original post was to answer that question? Why "throw it out" in post #77, without adding anything objective?
Can't argue with that. Can't run, stops drives. Wrs have no speed or separation, can't make plays (I know we've all heard it 1000 times) I think Tanny is hindered by his supporting cast. I will also say RT hasn't made plays himself. It's frustrating because he's our apparent future QB. His stats are seriously lame. But I think the general consensus is its not all on him but we want to see that 'spark'. I just think we are flat on Offense and its a virus.
You breed stats too much for me shou. U need to get out more and take your head out of your laptop. I let my eyes tell me more that numbers. I've been saying RTs TD 'stat' is lame since week 4. I've been proved right. You want objective. I say what I think whether its objective to you or not. I just think being objective isn't always proven. I can be a negative vibe merchant when I think its warranted. Doesn't mean I'm right. Tip.
Bush was wildly productive with Matt Moore, Fasano has always been more productive than his current 233 yards, Bess usually produce about 3 Td's per season on avg prior to this one. Hartline is the only offensive player who is doing slightly better than his career avg in terms of Yds but not YPC Fasano's yds have dropped by 50%, his Td production is on par but otherwise. I'm not a stats guy, think they lie a bit, however when the entire unit's productivity is down, and they have done better in their careers recently it is a good bet it is the Qb Fan Marino
Bush started out on fire. Jets game. Injury. Wheels fell off. Bess. I rate him. Highly. He's one of the best slot WRs in the NFL imo. Problem is...he's our No2. Fasano isn't what we need. He's on downslide and has always been average at best. He's used too much in blocking but how long has that excuse been doing the rounds? Too long. If its true then that means our O Line needs TE help in protection. Egnew? I'm not even going to even get positive about a player I deem not even on the team next season. I need to actually see him suited up and play a down before I have an opinion.