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Where are we in the draft order so far?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Dec 4, 2012.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Out of curiosity, where are we in the draft order atm?

    I'd think we are maybe 13, will probably lose 3 of the next 4, making us 6-10

    WE may beat the Bills and Jags making us our ubiqutious 7-9
     
  2. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    We're at pick #13 right now but based on the strength of schedule percentages, I believe we may get as high as #7 overall before the year is through.

    Buffalo is above us. If we end up losing to them that would put us ahead of them. I refuse to believe New Orleans is going to finish with a 5-11 or 6-10 record. If we were to tie Detroit, Arizona, Tennessee and/or Cleveland in win totals, we end up with the higher pick on SOS tiebreak. I think the Browns have at least one win left on the schedule in the Kansas City game, and having won 5 of their last 8 games they may even surprise the Redskins. The Lions should beat the Cardinals for their 5th win of the season, and Atlanta is so far ahead of the rest of the NFC that by Week 16 their players may even take their foot off the gas long enough to lose to the Lions. For Tennessee, games against the Jaguars and Jets have to be considered coin flips at this point. The one team I see maintaining this 4 win total is the Cardinals.

    I think we'll end up picking #8 or #9.
     
  4. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Which would hopefully mean Bjoern Werner.
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, #8 or #9 would be nice, but think we win two more games.

    Chicago is doing well and sadly so are the Colts, they look like a playoff team tbh, which screws us on their #2 pick for VD.
     
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That is unfortunate...but those are the breaks I guess. I believe the Dolphins are expected to receive a compensatory selection, though it'll probably be low like the 6th round.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'm of the view that once you get that late in the draft you can find similar quality in the UDFA pool.

    BJ Cunningham vs Jonas Gray for example

    Knowing how things work with this team, we win 3 of the last 4, and pick 18th or so, then the Bears and Colts go on playoff runs.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Given this draft order I could see the following draft happening:

    1. Kansas City Chiefs - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
    2. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Johnathan Banks, Mississippi State
    3. Oakland Raiders - LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
    4. Philadelphia Eagles - FS Matt Elam, Florida
    5. Carolina Panthers - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
    6. San Diego Chargers - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
    7. Cleveland Browns - DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
    8. Tennessee Titans - OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
    9. Arizona Cardinals - QB Matt Barkley, USC
    10. Detroit Lions - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
    11. Buffalo Bills - WR Keenan Allen, California
    12. New Orleans Saints - CB Jordan Poyer, Oregon State

    13. Miami Dolphins - ???

    That would leave pass rushers like Damontre Moore, Sam Montgomery, Barkevious Mingo, Jarvis Jones, Alex Okafor and Dion Jordan on the board. IF the Dolphins parted ways with Jake Long then that would put Jake Matthews on the board. There would be some backing for Chase Thomas.

    But for me if that scenario were to happen then my choice would be between TE Tyler Eifert, S Phillip Thomas of Fresno State and RB Giovanni Bernard of North Carolina.

    I like the defensive ends in this draft but I think once you get beyond Werner, you can shoot for a bargain player with one of the 6 picks we have in the top 110.
     
  9. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    So is this Phillip Thomas a Ed Reed/Earl Thomas/Eric Berry type safety?

    Also, you feel those 3 are better prospects than Jarvis Jones and Barkevious Mingo?
     
  10. ajaffe9

    ajaffe9 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If we end up drafting at 13 and it seems like all the elite players are gone, trading down could be something to look into as well. I feel like you could still get similar value moving a few spots down as the strength of this draft is on the line of scrimmage and those guys usually dont go as high. also we get more picks to fill the multiple holes we have and maybe even get lucky with someone offering more than they should to move up for a prospect they fall in love with. on the other hand, if we end up falling to low top 10 - like I think we will - then stay there.

    also CK, what do you think of taking a guy like Jonathan Cooper of UNC if we do end up in the teens? I know not one of the most pressing needs but he could really solidify the middle of the line with him and pouncey. also you'd have two guys that can pull with those two. I would only consider this if we trade down, though.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You would go back or safety at 13 ?, even with R Jones emergence? Or the idea you can get a good back later, Ball, Taylor?
     
  12. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Can't speak for the back, but R. Jones is only one S. You'd like to have two, plus Clemons is a FA after this year I believe.
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm just curious as to his approach, using that high of a resource means there's something going on in his head in terms of importance of the position. I don't think that Thomas would be the BPA so I ask..
     
  14. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Believe it or not, I'd go Te in that slot.

    Young Qb's with young Te's who can play really help their development

    Fasano is not a scrub, he's also not much of a passing threat down the field.
     
  15. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Kind of tough. There's really not a group of the top guys that have really separated themselves. Bjoern Werner, Manti Te'o, I'd argue Chance Warmack, but after that...everyone's pretty much lumped right there. I don't think I'd go running back there, especially not Ball or Taylor. Neither of them strikes me as elite. Just good, solid backs, but you could get Le'Veon Bell or Eddie Lacy a round or two later and still get the same thing.

    Haven't seen much of Tyler Eifert, but I agree with padre's premise of young QBs having a nice tight end threat. Brees, Brady, Rodgers, the 49ers - those teams all have a nice weapon (or two in the case of New England and San Francisco) at the tight end spot.

    I'd give Matt Elam a look. Can't speak to Philip Thomas. Most things I've seen have him as a 2nd - 4th round pick. I think Miami really needs someone else other than Chris Clemons to team with Reshad Jones. Personally, I'd rather target Dashon Goldson in free agency, but that's just me.

    As much as I'd hate to see another lineman taken, you've got to consider it if for some reason Jake Long's not back. Personally, I'd also look at Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper, maybe not in the top 10, but in that 13-20 range, with this year's group, gun to my head, yeah, I'd consider them.

    I think Dion Jordan could be a consideration, even if you're only going to end up using him is a sub-package player starting off like San Francisco did with Aldon Smith. That's assuming Miami's still going to roll with a base under/over front with Odrick playing as an oversized DE like they are this year.

    Jonathan Banks or Xavier Rhodes might also merit consideration as well.
     
  16. PhinsFan93

    PhinsFan93 New Member

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    Banks going second? Elam going fourth? I doubt it. Montgomery, Mingo, and Okafor are better fits in a 3-4. Jordan is overrated to me and Jones will most likely go in the first 10 picks along with Moore. I think we either we go CB and get Banks or get Eifert. Hopefully Ezekiel Ansah is there in the second; definitely could see a team like the Pats getting him the 25-32 range -___-
     
  17. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    If Jones is there you take him no ifs or buts.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't see Jarvis Jones or KeKe Mingo as great fits in this defense, nor are they the kind of "must have" players that would make you disregard the fit and just mold your defense around them. Neither of them is a Von Miller. I have a hard time seeing dominant factors on Damontre Moore. He's thin and not that strong.

    Yes I could see Matt Elam going that high. Nobody at this time a year ago would've had Mark Barron as high as he went, despite I'm sure several folks trying to claim they "knew it all along". This is a new NFL Draft since the institution of the rookie wage scale. Take what you thought you knew about which positions are generally drafted where, and forget it. Matt Elam is probably the best rated safety since Eric Berry and Earl Thomas. Phillip Thomas as well. The Eagles are going to try and rebuild that secondary and Kurt Coleman takes too many chances, gets burned too often.

    When you're drafting a Giovanni Bernard you're not just drafting a tailback that can "contribute" like when you get one in the later rounds. You're drafting a guy that has shown he can carry the load and impact games. You're drafting a Doug Martin, and it's hard to deny the positive effect that can have on a team. Once again I point to the rookie wage scale and say, take whatever you thought you knew about how high certain positions do or do not get drafted, and forget it.

    Reshad Jones is turning into a nice player. He's gifted in man coverage (as we saw on the interception) and he supports the run very well. But he's not very good in zone, nor is anyone going to confuse him for a Jairus Byrd when it comes to ball hawking. This was his 3rd interception on the year, not his 5th or 7th. As I recall, one was late in the game against the Bengals where Dalton was trying to execute a comeback drive and actually Jones had allowed the receiver to come open underneath him, but Dalton threw the ball woefully inaccurate and straight into Jones' hands. The other interception against the Raiders was a damn fine play in zone, but it makes me nervous that it only came with the game WAY out of reach to where Jones felt confident enough to take chances. This third interception came as I said, in man coverage, which we have seen all year he's very good at. I think there is room for another player that makes plays on the football and I think both Matt Elam and Phillip Thomas fit that bill.
     
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  19. ajaffe9

    ajaffe9 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would love to see Elam and Jones back there together. Aggressive, fast, and physical play from both safeties
     
  20. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd be surprised if Banks went 2nd overall. I wouldn't be surprised if Elam went in the top 5. Or Barr in the top 10.
     
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  21. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    This could just be me, but when I watch Elam play I see more of a SS. Don't get me wrong I love Elam, but I don't know if I think he would be the highest drafted SS since Roy Williams. Honestly, I haven't really watched him play coverage that closely, but he always seems to be around the los in the SS role.
     
  22. PhinsFan93

    PhinsFan93 New Member

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    A guy that we should really take a look at is John Boyett, a certified FS out of Oregon. A bit short but is an Eric Weddle clone. Played in one game this season (2 tackles 1 INT) because of a knee injury. 279 tackles(90 his freshman year), 10 INTs(1 TD), 7 TFL, and 20 passes broken up since 2009. Should be ready for the draft.
     
  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    You're a fan of Poyer, too? I'm enamored with him. Seems like a potential special player to me.

    Buffalo is weak at SLB. I could see them filling that with a hybrid type guy like Jarvis Jones or Damontre Moore, which would make them deadly in nickel when that ever-growing tubby in the middle comes off the field. How the heck Dareus went from a terrorizing 290 to this is beyond me. Does he have a thyroid problem? I mean he's still a solid player but I think it's counterproductive for any player with his ability to sacrifice ability for girth. I hope he never gets back down to 300 while he's in Buffalo.


    CJ Mosley wouldn't surprise me there either TBH. Looks like a very nice fit at WLB. They've put too much effort into that defense to not emphasize finishing it.
     
  24. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'd take a safety with an early pick b/c a pair of really good ones seem to have a compounding affect IMO, especially when they're around each other long enough to know what each other's thinking out there and can compliment each other's play like Ryan Clark does for Troy. Without a smart, solid FS, Troy doesn't have the same freedom to do all his damage, at least not w/o exposing the defense to risk.

    I don't know if I'd rather have Elam or convert Rhodes...... or do you stop restricting Rhodes' diet and let him bulk up to a linebacker'ish Adrian Wilson?
     
  25. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    There was a time when I really like Giovani Bernard but now I find myself wondering if he's not much more than Dion Lewis + an inch and 10 pounds.
     
  26. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Of the 4 teams tied with us at 5-8 I think we'll only have a weaker SOS than Cleveland ... That would put us at picking #12 after this weekend's games. There is an outside chance our SOS will fall below the Saints pending tonight's game and get us to the #11 slot
     
  27. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Updated with remaining games. We slipped past the Saints and are tied with the Browns

    1 K City 2-11 .500 @ Oakland; Indianapolis; @ Denver
    2 J-ville 2-11 .538 @ Miami; New England; @ Tennessee
    3 Oakland 3-10 .457 Kansas City; @ Carolina; @ San Diego
    4 Philly 4-9 .510 Cincinnati; Washington; @ NY Giants
    5 Carolina 4-9 .510 @ San Diego; Oakland; @ New Orleans
    6 Tenn 4-9 .529 NY Jets; @ Green Bay; Jacksonville
    7 Arizona 4-9 .563 Detroit; Chicago; @ San Francisco
    8 Detroit 4-9 .563 @ Arizona; Atlanta; Chicago
    9 San Diego 5-8 .452 Carolina; @ NY Jets; Oakland
    10 Buffalo 5-8 .495 Seattle; @ Miami; NY Jets
    11 Miami 5-8 .510 Jacksonville; Buffalo; @ New England
    12 Browns 5-8 .510 Washington; @ Denver; @ Pittsburgh
    13 Saints 5-8 .512 Tampa Bay; @ Dallas; Carolina

    - Philly should go 0 of 3
    - Panthers should win 1 of 3
    - Tenn should win 2 of 3
    - Cards are just awful 0-3
    - Detroit should win 1 of 3
    - Chargers have good chance at winning final 3
    - Bills have good chance to lose final 3
    - Fins have decent shot at 2-1 finish. If form hold though we'll lay an egg against either Jax or Bills
    - Brown are playing good but that ending sched is tough. Wouldn't surprise me to see them win 2 of 3 though
    - Saints should win 2 of 3

    If my "should" list happens ... we'll be picking at about 9ish
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not necessarily a fan of his. Nor do I particularly think John Banks is worthy of #2 overall. I'm just anticipating a simple fact which is that corners are in HIGH demand. There never seem to be enough, and this draft doesn't seem to have a lot of them with a combination of good range AND a history of making plays.

    I probably got a little overzealous with both Banks and Poyer though.
     
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  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Dion Lewis plus an inch and 10 lbs sounds pretty good, lol.
     
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  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    On the draft order, based on details I don't feel like typing out, if Miami finishes 5-11 then getting to #6 overall seems not only plausible but likely. The worst they could be would be #9 overall. Technically (though unlikely) they could still get all the way to #2 overall.

    At 6-10 though, all bets are off. Hard to say where they'll be there. Probably right about where they are.
     
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  31. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    We get to 6 and I'll be thrilled ... 2nd and I'll start believing in miracles
     
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  32. ajaffe9

    ajaffe9 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't take this post the wrong way, as I am happy with Tannehill and think he will develop into a very good QB, but if we fall to #2 in this draft and not last year's draft then I think we have to look into the team being cursed or something lol. Maybe Ray Finkle put a curse on the team after Marino didn't turn the laces out?

    [video=youtube;7tV2MHnPJS4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tV2MHnPJS4[/video]
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Wouldn't think so Ck, 5 wins at the #2 overall?

    I've seen 5 wins go top 8, not top 2

    I'd be thrilled with top 5 though, my feelings about the draft are fairly well known, however what we need is better athletes, top 5 rotation means unless the GM is a incompetent, we will have athletic options each rd + additional picks+waiver claim order.
     
  34. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    yeah, I guess that kinda does, when you put it like that. lol
     
  35. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    Just draft a WR...
     
  36. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    That is who Scouts Inc has us taking in their first Mock at #12. I am not familiar with him at all. What little I've read is similar to what you are implying. A sub package pass rush guy that needs to get stronger to become an every down 4-3 DE
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That's the picture that is often painted of him but I think he's stronger than given credit for. I think he consistently shocks blockers with his hands.
     
  38. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Another update. The SOS are from last weekend and won't be adjusted until after tonight's game.

    What I expect to happen is in italics

    1 Kansas City 2-12 .500 Indianapolis; @ Denver--Lose last two 2-14
    2 Jacksonville 2-12 .538 New England; @ Tennessee--Lose last two 2-14
    3 Oakland 4-10 .457 @ Carolina; @ San Diego--Lose last two 4-12
    4 Philadelphia 4-10 .510 Washington; @ NY Giants--Lose last two 4-12
    5 Detroit 4-10 .563 Atlanta; Chicago--Split 5-11
    6 Carolina 5-9 .510 Oakland; @ New Orleans--Split 6-10
    7 Tennessee 4-9 .529 @ Green Bay; Jacksonville--I expect Titans to lose to Jets tonight and Split last two 5-11
    8 Arizona 5-9 .563 Chicago; @ San Francisco--Lose last two 5-11
    9 San Diego 5-9 .452 @ NY Jets; Oakland--Split 6-10
    10 Buffalo 5-9 .495 @ Miami; NY Jets--Lose last two 5-11
    11 Cleveland 5-9 .510 @ Denver; @ Pittsburgh--Lose last two 5-11
    12 Miami 6-8 .510 Buffalo; @ New England--Split 7-9
    13 New Orleans 6-8 .512 @ Dallas; Carolina --Split 7-9
    14 Tampa Bay 6-8 .478 St. Louis; @ Atlanta--Lose last two 6-10
    15 NY Jets 6-7 .510 San Diego; @ Buffalo--Beat Titans tonight and Win last two 9-7
    16 St. Louis 6-7-1 .529 @ Tampa Bay; @ Seattle--Split 7-8-1
    17 Pittsburgh 7-6 .471 Cincinnati; Cleveland--Split 8-8

    Notes:
    - A big monkey wrench could get thrown into these expectations by teams choosing to not play their top players in last game of season.
    - For the Fins, winning against the Jills will bring the teams with 7 & 8 wins into the equation. There are currently 7 teams in that category.
    - If New England decides to play it safe and holds out their tops players, we could be looking at potentially picking in the high teens with a win over the Patsies.
    - If all the expectations are met Fins will pick 13th or 14th depending on Saints ending SOS
     
  39. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    nvm
     
  40. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He needs another 15-20 pounds, but he has definitely gotten stronger in 2012 from 2011 from what I can tell. I guess that could be expected, but I figured as a positive in regards to his draft status.
     

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