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The Talent Surrounding Ryan Tannehill: Part II

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Dec 24, 2012.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah yes. I play a lot of backgammon and they use a similar (or the same?) rating system. The great players are up above 2000. I think you solve your problem by looking at what would be expected based on a sample of past matchups between similar teams. In other words, if you take the last 100 games (for example) between offenses and defenses that were similar to the two you're looking at, what was the average result, and what was the average (standard) deviation from that average in the sample? Then you can look at how much the result between the two teams you're focusing on deviated from that average (i.e., deviation from the norm), while giving that deviation a point value based on the average (standard) deviation in the historical sample. Make sense?
     
  2. Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Print[​IMG]If you give Ryan Tannehill an effective running game, he will carve up opposing defenses with his arm. That is one of the biggest lessons the Miami Dolphins should take from Tannehill's solid rookie season.

    According to ESPN Stats and Information, Tannehill has completed 67.1 percent of his passes off play-action this season. That is the highest completion percentage in the AFC East, which includes Pro Bowl quarterback Tom Brady.

    Tannehill also has six touchdowns off play-action passes compared to just one interception. His QBR is an impressive 90.2, and Tannehill averages 10.33 yards per attempt.

    Miami's running game has picked up down the stretch, which is why it's no surprise the same can be said for Tannehill's numbers. The 2012 first-round pick is a good athlete who can make all the throws. Tannehill is simply lacking experience and a better supporting cast.

    The Dolphins have plenty of cap room and draft picks to fix their problems. The biggest issue for Miami should be to make sure Tannehill gets all the support he needs next year to be successful.


    Nice article by James Walker and I agree 100% with him. Give Tennehill a running game and better WR targets and we will be just fine. In shock we have so many Tannehill haters on this forum. Because they like what RG3, Wilson & Luck is doing better. So they blast Tennehill because they need some one to blame.
     
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  3. Im not sure what your saying is possible to do accurately.
     
  4. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    well after the plays WR all over the NFL made today....this conversation should be over....TY Hilton, Lance Moore, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Michael Crabtree.....our WR Core is not even close...
     
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  5. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    ...especially with Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano, and Charles Clay out.
     
  6. oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    But Jeffy said in Hard Knocks that those 4's, 5's and 6's just need to step up.
     
  7. oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    You are joking right ? All three would be hard pressed to start on any other team
     
  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Thanks for your opinion on that. I'm convinced. ;)
     
  9. oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    Well you can delude yourself if you wish.
     
  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    I thought WR's and playmakers on offense were irrelevant? Shouldn't Binns be equal to Brandon Marshall or Megatron? How dare you point at someone other than Tannehill?
     
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  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Did I say that? :headscratch:

    I may have forgotten. Please, refresh my memory if you would and show me exactly where.
     
  12. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ah yes I know. We all have that freedom of choice, don't we. :)
     
  13. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    what about that perfect outside shoulder pass to binns that would have been a TD that was dropped
     
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Ya think Davone Bess woulda caught it?
     
  15. When I try to determine why the offense is lacking in production I see plenty of blame to go around.

    RT- Did not performane at to an acceptable standard for a starter. Im not closing the book on him but I wont believe he can do it until he does. Much of the passing struggles belong on him.

    R Bush- Good back who had some solid performances but not enough to be satisfied either. Im not closing the book on him either because I do think being behind an inconsistent line and an inconsistent passing game was a big obstical for any RB to overcome.

    WR/TE - Hartline is the best we got and he is OK. He is catching about 60% of his targets. He heeds to get it up closer to 65%

    D Bess - He catches about 58% of his targets and that needs to improve too.

    Fasano IIRC is around 56% completion rate which is really bad considering his role.

    R Bush completion is 70% which is really good but it should be considering that he is really targeted with mostly high percentage passes.

    Overall RT completes about 64% of his passes which is right in line with the top QBs of this year.

    Where they seem to drop off is in stats like 1st dns, 3rd down conversions, TDs, and total yrds.

    Looking over all these stats combined with watching these games leads me to believe a few things.

    I think all our recievers have room for improvement. They need more clutch catches and they need to display a nose for getting to the markers. Thats where they are lacking and it shows.

    RT needs to place the ball better to give them the opprotunity to make those plays.

    Ireland/Philbin need to provide RT with more options to spread the ball around by getting him more targets to throw too.

    Fasano is on the cusp IMO. We really need a 2nd TE and a 3rd WR to give RT options but if we can replace him too I would. Im hoping Egnew isnt a bust and just getting off to a slow start and maybe we can find 1 more TE and jettison Fasano.

    Our O-Line is frustrating and while finding an upgrade at RB to compliment what we have with the guys I think the guys we have would be adequate if the O-Line could win the battle at the line of scrimage more consistently. Same can be said with their pass protection as well which also makes me lend some forgivness toward RTs play. The Line needs work.......still.

    On Defense....... Im more optimistic.

    The front 7 we have are all decent and work well together as a unit. I have no objection to adding a pass rusher to help Wake or bringing in someone who give our line more push but IMO its not as big of a priority as fixing our offense.

    DBs - I like Sean Smith and I would offer him a 4yr contract at decent #2 money. Marshall I'm clueless about but if they are confident in him then so be it, if not they need to find another solid CB.

    Jones is a keeper but if we see a good safety we should go for it if it looks like a better upgrade available to us over anything we can do on offense.

    Long I would not franchise but I would try to resign him for a fair price. Im not comfortable promoting his b/u without seeing him more. If they are comfortable with him and want to let Long walk, so be it. It seems risky to me and we are not in a postion to create more holes.

    I'ld like to see us rtesign the players we think are solid for reasonable money and use the extra money and picks to fill in areas of need. We might be chocked full of stars on this roster but the team also isnt horrible. We have solid players that can be built around.

    Thats the type of thing Im looking for from Ireland and Philbin this year.
     
  16. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Bess would've still been on the 10 yard line.
     
  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The following may add some perspective on what was said above:

     
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  18. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    RT- Did not performane at to an acceptable standard for a starter. Im not closing the book on him but I wont believe he can do it until he does. Much of the passing struggles belong on him.

    I disagree. All things considered, I think as well as could be expected.
     
  19. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Is that recent and updated?
     
  20. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I'm basically done with the debate. We flat out don't have offensive talent at the WR position. Most teams can field more than 2 WR sets and have more than 2 receiving threats. We could line up with five wide and still only have two guys worth covering. Our TE can't separate and our pass protection was spotty all season.

    Ifd you wan't to blame Tannehill go ahead. I just can't live in a vaccuum.
     
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  21. I generaly agree with his post. Thanks for sharing it.
     
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  22. Thats fine I wont argue with you that theres extenuating circumstances to explain why his performance was subpar. Im just saying his perfomance was not good enough to be a starter. He may grow into it, Im hoping he does. He just is not there yet. The experiment is over. I just am not ready to say he can do it until I see him do it and evfen then I want to see him do it consistently not just glimpses here and there.
     
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  23. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    This is funny stuff:

    "The truth is that TD reception numbers depend a lot on a number of factors that have nothing to do with the WR and WR TD numbers can vary widely from season to season. Calvin Johnson had 16 last year but has only 4 this year. Brandon Marshall has been a 10 TD some years and a 3 TD guy others. Andre Johnson has very bit of size, speed, strength and jumping ability you could ever ask for in a WR, but he has just 3 TDs this year."

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bess and Hartline each had a TD reception this year, combining for a whopping 2 TDs.
    Bess averages just over 2 receiving TDs per year
    Hartline averages 1.5 TD receptions per year.

    So, why even bring up that generally speaking, WR TD #s can vary year to year? Because in Miami's specific case, they don't.

    Andre Johnson has 56 career TDs
    Calvin Johnson has 54 in 4 fewer years. We know that they can score TDs. Hartline and Bess not only had a pathetic year in terms of combined TD production, but it was a pretty typical year for each of them. It's clearly not an anomaly, it's par for the course.

    So again, your point in bringing up this subject of WR TD production year to year variance is what? You'll have to find a better excuse than this one, because it holds no water at all. You're trying to dismiss the miserbale WR TD production as an issue because it doesn't support your conclusions- sorry, it doesn't work that way.
     
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  24. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Could it be possible that Ryan Tannehill needs to step up AND we need better talent?
     
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  25. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Now compare the numbers of TD passes thrown by the average QB in a season to the numbers of TD passes the Dolphins' QBs have thrown during Bess and Hartline's tenure with the team.

    I'll contribute part of the Dolphins' side of the equation, starting with Davone Bess's first season:

    2008: 20 team passing TDs
    2009: 15
    2010: 17
    2011: 20
    2012: 12

    Those numbers look a little low? This is Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Ryan Tannehill we're talking about, none of whom has been known to be the engineer of a top-flight passing offense during his career.

    Now again, I'm contributing only a portion of the research needed to adjudicate this issue, but we may find that the percentage of the Dolphins' total passing TDs Bess and Hartline have caught is not sigificantly less than the average starting receiver catches for his team, especially if you consider how much the two receivers have been targeted overall during those seasons.
     
  26. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    All you're doing is successfully showing us why Bess & Hartline have been holding back the passing offense's TD production, and not just one QB but four. Thank you. But nice try though. :lol: Now it's blatantly more apparent than it's been blatantly apparent that you're grasping onto anything possible to support your silly, false, preconceived belief.

    You're f'ing high.
    Added to that, receivers who suck in the redzone get targeted less. That's how that works.
     
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  27. NolePhin15

    NolePhin15 Well-Known Member

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    I want Dwayne Harris
     
  28. finfaninilinois

    finfaninilinois Active Member

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    JESUS G-- D--- CHRIST this debate is getting FNNNN old

    Bess and Hartline are fine are they game changers NO does every team need those type players YES.

    Those 2 arent the ****in problem!!!!!!! the problem is there is no one else to throw the damn ball to. If teams only have to focus on 2 receivers instead of 4 or 5 what the hell do you think is gonna happen

    If they add a good #1 and a good TE and Mathews steps up next year the offense will be good!!!!

    NOW LEAVE IT ALONE ITS GETTING OLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No one argued against that...except Shou.

    He thinks we only need Tanny to play better. The rest of us think the rookie will improve and he needs help in terms of surrounding talent.

    Oh and before he comes on swearing he didn't say that:
     
  30. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Oversight on my part there. Thanks for catching that. That quote should read as follows:

    That one should've been consistent with the conclusion of the original post, which we've addressed previously and for which I've emphasized the bolded text:

     
  31. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Your argument is that Hartline and Bess have held back the TD production of the almighty Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Ryan Tannehill, yet supposedly I'm "grasping." :rolleyes:

    Never mind that Brandon Marshall, many people's "solution" to this TD problem (e.g., "look at what he's doing in Chicago!"), was on the team for two of those years. I suppose Hartline and Bess couldn't get out of Marshall's way enough for him to propel those tremendous quaterbacks to the stupendous heights they're capable of.
     
  32. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    I dont think that they are holding him back as much as they are not red zone targets by themselves. If you get a good red zone TE ( the guy for UCLA is a beast) and a true #1, you will see their tds go up.
     
  33. Patssuck

    Patssuck Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, but last year Marshall dropped at least 5 td passes.
     
  34. Perfectville_USA

    Perfectville_USA Mr Perfect

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    Tennehill going to grow as a player by leaps and bounds. The kid only played 18 games at the QB position in college. With his quick release, arm strength, smarts and work ethic. He is going to be a top 10 NFL QB, if the FO adds the right playmakers he could end up being great.
     
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  35. oakelmpine

    oakelmpine New Member

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    ROFL :lol: Please stop being a revisionist when you are caught.

    Seriously why is this person still Orange, isn't that some kind of privilege position or something like that ? He has been nothing but disruptive the last few weeks.
     
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  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Is there something stopping you from putting me on your ignore list? :headscratch:
     
  37. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Can someone please tell me.....

    Why ya'll argue so damn much?

    The offense was held back by bad play by Tannehill. Agreed.

    The offense was held back by a rookie QB. Agreed.

    The offense was held back by poor execution. Agreed.

    The offense was held back by a lack of play makers. Agreed.


    The question is then..... can we improve on each one of those things?

    In my opinion, yes.
     
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  38. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The issue IMO is the perception that Ryan Tannehill would've played significantly unlike a typical rookie QB if he would've had these supposed "playmakers" around him.

    I think the available objective evidence argues against that, personally, but I imagine you can understand the reluctance to be persuaded by that. It essentially throws the future of the QB the entire franchise is riding on into a world of almost complete uncertainty, which leaves us more anxious about what the hell's going on with this team.
     
  39. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rt needs to improve, arguing that IMO is stupid, but it is equally stupid to argue that in total, our supporting cast doesnt neeed to improve.
     
  40. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    OK....just do me a favor...

    Can you point to any posts......where any said such?

    "The issue IMO is the perception that Ryan Tannehill would've played significantly unlike a typical rookie QB"

    I honestly cant remember anyone saying Tannehill would have played significantly unlike a typical rookie QB....


    And ...why does it throw the future of the QB and our franchise into complete uncertainty? I mean...hes played like most rookie QB's. Now...if he doesnt improve in season two....I can agree with that statement. But...after his rookie season? I mean you yourself...at worst...hes shown he can be a game manager. We dont know his ceiling. So...thats not that uncertain.
     

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