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Luck, Griffin, & Wilson vs. Tannehill & Weeden: An Objective Analysis (Part I)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shouright, Jan 3, 2013.

  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    "Part II." :)
     
  2. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Gotcha.
     
  3. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Agreed. That would be pretty awesome.

    EDIT: It wouldn't be exactly the same as the shot chart, but they do keep track of where on the field (short right, deep middle, etc.) passes are throw.
     
  4. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just because there is a statistical correlation between variables, doesn't mean there is a relationship between them. I haven't taken stats in years but IIRC that is one of the first things they teach you. Isn't there some antedote about leafs falling from a tree in china and the death rate in the US?

    The figures you presented support the most obvious conclusion ie Luck threw more on average than the other QBs and Wilson/RG3 threw less but it doesn't explain why. That is all conjecture and what everyone on this thread is debating.
     
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  5. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Well, I've got INT% for everyone here:

    Tanne: 2.7%
    Wilson: 2.5%
    RG3: 1.3%
    Weeden: 3.3%
    Brady: 1.3%
    Brees: 2.7%
    Manning: 1.9%
    Ryan: 2.3%
    Rogers: 1.4%
    Luck: 2.9%
     
  6. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Correlation doesn't equal causation.

    Sure. There are a multitude of ways to interpret the data, some more reasonable than others.

    What you can't say, however, is that Luck passed the ball just as much as the other rookie QBs, for example, or that he did so well because he played so conservatively in terms of downfield passing. The data leave room for some interpretations, but others they rule out completely.
     
  7. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The question is, is what do they mean?

    Do they mean Luck was asked to pass more?

    Do they mean nothing, because Luck averaged 25 more plays a game?

    Do they mean that Luck, he of the 7 comebacks, had to pass more, to come back?
     
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  8. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    My first post addressed this. At this point it'll be argued whichever way the person is inclined to believe. I'd like if an average time per pressure stat indicating how long it usually took pressure to reach a QB in order to look into this deeper. I doubt such a stat exists.
     
  9. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    So...

    i know you know statistics...but do you know the actual game of football?
     
  10. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    Completely agree. This would be a great stat if it existed.
     
  11. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I don't think we can say with 100% certainty. IMO we can use the stats only to rule out certain observations and explanations.

    When I do "Part II" of this I think there will be more to talk about. "Part I" was only to establish a context in terms of the passing offenses these guys actually ran.
     
  12. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Only a matter of time. Very soon we will see stats like this.
     
  13. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I appreciate the effort but Im not sure you did the things you said you would in the initial post. Plus those stats are a bit meaningless in my opinion.

    I mean 20 yards and under....looks nice on a stat sheet right? Problem is you're talking about a 3 yard pass in the same light as a 19 yard pass. What I mean is you don't even know the context of the passes. If someone was open, did the receiver drop the ball? Did the receiver slip or break the wrong way on the route? Did the QB throw it away on purpose?

    You basically threw a couple ghost numbers out but none of that is a good way to try and compare players/
     
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  14. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    PFF does keep stats for how long QBs wait in the pocket before throwing. https://www.profootballfocus.com/da...ason=2012&stype=r&pos=qbt&teamid=-1&filter=50. It's not quite a measure of how long did it take for the pressure to get there (because the QB usually throws long before the pressure gets to him), but it's a pretty decent measure of how quickly a QB is getting rid of the ball.
     
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  15. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Right. I'm thinking more along the lines of motion tracking technology. You don't need to rely on humans to do this. You can use systems that can determine when exactly the ball is snapped, when its thrown, where everybody is at any given point in time, etc.

    This type of technology is being used in the NBA now. They can track where exactly a shot was taken from on the floor, they can tell you what someones shooting % is after one or two dribbles, etc. Only a matter of time before we see that in the NFL, and its going to lead to a lot of breakthroughs in how we understand the game. I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future we have precise measurements on things such as the trajectory of every pass thrown. You could even use such technology to truly determine the accuracy of a QB. Imagine getting stats on how far on/off target the QB is for every throw?
     
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  16. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I didn't make any points or conclusions at all about the passes thrown 20 or fewer yards in the air. And I didn't compare the quality of the players' performance, per se; I compared how much their offenses emphasized the passing game, and what kind of passing game was emphasized.

    Sounds like you missed the whole thing! Too bad you can't get that thirty seconds or so of your life back! :lol: ;)
     
  17. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    No doubt they did and I think the reason he didnt run early in the season is because they were telling not to run.
     
  18. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    That would all be pretty cool. I'd settle now for just an NFL version of My Synergy Sports, especially if they could include the All 22 film in it.
     
  19. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Wala!!!

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/

    I'm on my phone, but I think PFF does this now. This is an article from November that I remembered reading.
     
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  20. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    So.... what exactly did you do? What is the point that you are trying to make?
     
  21. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    It's not going to change the world or anything. ;)
     
  22. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    what offenses did they run because I don't think I saw that listed anywhere? Certainly they were not all west coast.

    Additionally, has anyone ever considered this year was considered a throw away year to the coaches and the front office?


     
  23. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    So, your point is that Luck threw a bunch? What does that have to do with the Fins? And how is it news that Luck threw it a ton and Tannehill was in the middle of the league in pass attempts?
     
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  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I really don't see any need to answer those questions. Thanks for your participation, though. :)
     
  25. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    It would add the missing context to your thread, increasing its relevance and advancing the discussion to where you are slowly and calculatedly (is that a word?) trying to take it.
     
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  26. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    This comparison is akin to comparing an apple to a duck. Each offense is a different animal. Each offense is tailored to the QBs skill set.
     
  27. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I suppose you'll just have to deal with it as it is, and participate as much as you wish, if at all. :)
     
  28. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    [​IMG]
     
  29. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    I'm trying, but as it currently stands, there isn't much to participate in. You've stated that Luck threw it a lot, and that Tannehill was middle of the league (subtracting the Jets game like you did, and then extrapolating the 15 games to 16... giving him 511 attempts over the season for 18th in the league, ahead of rookie an veteran QBs alike.
     
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  30. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    Really?????? You understand the point.


    What exactly do you understand about evaluating football outside of looking at stats?
     
  31. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    OK.
     
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    A whole lot less than you, I suppose?
     
  33. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    So, what is the significance of this already known information?
     
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  34. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Zero?
     
  35. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    Ok, then why go though the trouble of putting it together? What was your motivation for posting it then if it has zero significance?
     
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  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Would it really help you to understand my personal motivations in all this? Of what significance is that, to you?

    My lord, at least I'm talking about football here. You're talking about me! :lol: ;)

    Am I really that interesting? :headscratch: ;)
     
  37. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    I guess we'll have to wait until part 2
     
  38. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    That isn't the point at all. I'll say it once again...


    Football is not baseball. You can't just break down stats and get a complete picture. It is a combination of watching film(seeing the actual decision made with a throw that registers a stat) and the result of the actual decision(the statistic itself). Stats don't tell me if the under 20 yard throw was forced into double coverage, or if it was thrown with the proper touch over the LB.


    That said, even if you insist on doing it your way, you're still cherry picking.
     
  39. FinNasty

    FinNasty Alabama don’t want this... Staff Member Club Member

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    There's nothing more to talk about in regards to football and the original topic b/c it has zero significance. And since there isn't much to discuss at this point of the season... I've moved on to inquire about the motivations behind one of my fellow posters and members of my football community... who, knowing that he creates a lot of polarization on this board, would then post a thread in our forum that has zero relevance?
     
  40. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I disagree. But thanks! :)
     

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