Correlation vs Causation (Why statistics can be misleading)

Theres a lot I could say in response to this but I know the mods are getting tired of deleting all these type of posts so Im gonna leave it alone and I suggest you drop it too.

 

To me, that is because of emotion. There is a lot more emotion involved in the post season than the regular season. This is when the human heart comes in and throws the numbers out the window. IMO.

 

That isn't what is happening though. Not at all.

The majority of us say and have said, Tannehill is rookie and needs to improve...but he was ALSO hampered by having sub par surrounding talent. That has been shown through stats, through logic and through observation.

Shou has ignored all of that, and is putting forth a counter to the argument that Tannehill would have been all-world if not for is surrounding talent. The problem is no one but no one is making that argument. So he's arguing against basically a ghost, while the rest of us are trying to explain to him not only that, but also the things he thinks he's showing, he isn't.

He isn't trying to pull off some grand fan awakening bull**** either. He backed himself into a corner awhile ago, by defending Ireland's acquisition of talent. He eventually found himself having to denigrate Tannehill by harping on his "rookie-ness" to protect his Ireland defense. Since then, he had to double down on it to the point where he's actually telling us there's no real statistical advantage to better WRs than Hartline in terms of Tannehill's QB rating (thereby inadvertently destroying the need for talent at WR & TE positions)

All of that brings us back to the point of the thread, which is in what ways stats can be misleading. This site, of late, is a microcosm of that.

 

Sorry, but drop what? I didn't attack anyone, I made an observation. I respect your opinion. You and I have agreed on many occasions. I don't agree with you on this one, so I have to drop it? Nothing was targeted at you, so I don't understand why you would be emotionally invested in what I said that would cause you to tell me to drop it.

 

In the presence of much greater physical parity, as well. The poor teams have been eliminated. The sample left is restricted to those that were good enough to make the playoffs.

 

Sounds like someone's take on all this is a little different from yours.

 

There are posts by shouright that show, by his own statistics, that Tannehill has a very good probability of being a franchise QB. Yet you all ignore those and continue to act like he is trying to say Tannehill is **** and nobody else has a play in it. He is just pointing out, "that his play as a rookie" has more affect on the outcome than that of those around him. Which by logical thinking would be true.

 

There was a single thread about it. But even though I like the outcome, I also saw like many others that even that wasn't done properly. And when its all added up to everything he's tried to say/infer/imply it simply doesn't make sense.

 

I saw it and I didn't see it that way. He just posted numbers and left his interpretation of them out there. He wasn't saying he was right. But he was there to defend why he thought they were right. He has put a lot of work into trying to figure out an equation that can predict something. He has never said he is right, he is just trying to get others to help him better his equation, to better predict. IMHO.

Perhaps this wasn't the best forum to present his ideas, since this is a fan forum and fan being short for fanatic(emotionally invested) and all. But ,there is no harm in trying to evaluate and getting others to try to help, by removing the emotional aspect.

 

BTW, as soon as Ray Lewis announced his retirement just before the start of the playoffs, I told myself the Ravens would take the emotion from that and win it all with it. We'll see in a couple weeks whether that bears out.

 

The bold is simply not true.

 

That was a hell of a boost to that team. It will be very interesting to see the outcome of the Harbaugh bowl.

 

If you understand variance, you understand why the Colts went in instead of Miami (mostly Luck, and not the quarterback called Luck), and you would have definitely had the Vikings, and Bengals in. Redskins were tough to predict because of incomplete info since we had never seen RG3 play an NFL game.

 

They also drew the worst 11-5 Team in the History of the NFL in round 1, a Denver team that made a fatal mistake, and then drew their best possible matchup in the AFC championship game.

 

Sorry, but to me it is true. Not to be an ***, but I really think you need to go back through them all and read them without any emotion attached. Again, though, that is just my opinion.

HINT: If you get upset because of a word used... you are now emotionally involved. Look past it.

 

I think some of you need to come to grip with the reality that LUCK is an extremely important factor.

 

Im going with the Ravens

 

Tony Romo should of been easily predictable

 

You can't project injuries. Had you projected Peterson's average production, it was easy to predict that the Vikings would beat their ovr/und. number.

Like I said, the rookies made for incomplete info.

 

playoff viability. win totals.

not actual game results.

 

The thing about is that as the games increase in magnitude, Super Bowl being tops, obviously, the emotion increases as well, and the teams that are fueled more by emotion have more of an advantage.

This is Ray Lewis's last game as a pro, and it's the SUPER BOWL. Can you imagine what kind of energy is going to be coursing through that team?

 

Yes I can. Which is funny that we are talking about this, since previously we were trying to get the emotion out of the fan. It's truly amazing how much it REALLY changes ONCE you get to the playoffs and to the championship and superbowl for the players.

 

I was there through all of them. I know what was said, what was implied.

I'm not anymore emotionally invested in the outcome of the stats then him or any other fan. I am emotionally invested in the truth and he isn't speaking it.

 

Fair.

But a lot of people including me saw Detroit taking a step back this year.

 

Fair enough. I guess this is where we will agree to disagree. No harm in that, right?

 

Nope there is not.

 

Jake Cutler injury is where the "Luck" took place and ruined the playoff projection.

 

What unfortunately gets lost outside the measurable reach of statistics is chemistry.
The ability of the players to mesh into the framework of their team's system, and consistently, cohesively overcome the odds of adversity.
Character? Identity? On the same page?
However you define it, aside from our perennial inadequacies on offense, defense or at one position or another, looking back
it seems the bulk of this team's post super bowl history has been mirrored by a lack of it.

 

For that statement to be true, it would also have to be true that any one of us could know the truth. By your statement, you've put at least yourself in that position. Otherwise, how could you possibly know that what I've said isn't true?

I on the other hand don't believe any of us can know the truth. I believe we have ways of addressing and minimizing our own inherent biases, and as we use those, we're likely to be closer to the truth than if we do not.

 

We seem to have slews of players who just do not work out, not even slightly

Look at the 07 draft, or the 08, or 09, picks #1-#4 tend to just flounder in Miami, and the later rd players seem to work out really well, my theory is those high picks have more $$$ to engage in the distractions Miami offers to wealthy young players.

Dbess crushes Ginn and Turner in terms of production, and on and on it goes for us.

Back to OT, I think the other problem with gross stats is they do not take into account game situations, for example MMoore in 2011 had a good season based on stats, probably better than THill's, but his fourth qtr production was awful, that is a factor people to often do not look into.

Just "oh, 3,500 yds and X Td's!"

When those Td's are produced can be more critical as game situations change.

 

Why not settle this in the GM league?? You both certainly have the time and knowledge, and the best part ia we ALL fo better than Jeff Ireland!

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You guys must really be desperate for players

 

Not really, I would just prefer guys I think will do a good job. And those 2 (and yourself) I think could do a fine job.
Better to use all that energy into building a team rather than building a platform for ANOTHER argument.

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