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Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Perfectville_USA, Jan 26, 2013.

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  1. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're one step ahead of me.

    As for your last statement, nothing will help better than better QB play.
     
  2. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Absolutely! It would also have been better with better play from Hartline THIS past season too...
     
  3. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box


    But in most cases last season they would have almost needed perfect play from the Qb.

    So, to me, having a better target, and better protection for the Qb will help just as much which makes the Qb play better.
     
  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And by the way, red zone attempts per game correlates with QB rating at 0.70.

    The needed "playmaker" is the QB, folks.
     
  5. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In most cases? There were at least 3 times last season Hartline was wide open for a score and Tannehill missed him.

    Let's not over exaggerate how deficient you think our receivers are. They don't need perfect QB play in most cases.
     
  6. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That makes sense. When you look at our TOs compared to the Broncos, we're nearly identical. Yet, we're 5th from last in RZ attempts and they're 2nd overall.

    Adding Jennings, plus an offensive heavy draft would help, but at the end of the day, Tannehill needs to step up. More than anyone else. He needs to prove he's not a Henne/Sanchez when we get him weapons.
     
  7. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box


    All Qb's miss those type of passes at some point during a full NFL season. All of them. So yeah. it takes more than just exaggeration. The same Wr's also screwed up more TD chances than we'll ever know. A few that we've seen as well. Watching the all 22 film of every single play would help see that but who has time for that?
     
  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Correlation between red zone attempts per game and win percentage = 0.71

    Correlation between red zone attempts per game and win percentage, controlling for QB rating = 0.40
     
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  9. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill screwed up Touchdown chances. Our receivers screwed up touchdown chances. Both are at fault.
     
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  10. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box


    I think you guys have it KIND OF backwards. I think every single person in this debate would agree that RT needs to be better. But having the proper weapons will tell us nearly instantly if RT is Henne or servicable, or better or worse...

    The weapons, IMO, are THE most important part to this equation. Not Ryan Tannehill.
     
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  11. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    As well as the pass protections....
     
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  12. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Correlation between rate of TDs scored from the red zone and QB rating = 0.75

    Tannehill's QB rating was in the 19th percentile in the league.

    Miami was in the 67th percentile in the league in rate of TDs scored from the red zone (55.26%).

    From where do you suppose Tannehill got that kind of "help" getting into the end zone from the red zone, given that QB rating correlates so strongly with the rate of TDs scored from the red zone, and Tannehill's QB rating was in only the 19th percentile in the league?

    "We need playmakers!" ;)
     
  13. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You think?

    If Tannehill performs poorly with the "proper weapons," why won't it tell us that the weapons weren't as good as we thought they were, are malfunctioning in some way through newfound faults of their own, or aren't being used correctly by the coaches?

    I think Tannehill is safe from significant ridicule around here for a whole lot longer than "nearly instantly." ;)
     
  14. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    What most here agree with is that the weapons on offense are lacking. Getting him the proper weapons will absolutely tell us if RT is the problem. It will be seen nearly instantly. That's correct! It does not mean 5 passes....
     
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  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jordy Nelson had primary targets ahead of him. Driver, Jennings, Jones, Finley. This year Hartline was the man and he produced 1 TD.

    Sure, maybe he improves in the future. Maybe. But Jordy Nelson's situation was different.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Out of 241 wide receivers to be targeted 100+ times in an individual season from 2006 to 2012, only Torry Holt with the Jaguars in 2009 (his final year in the league at 33 years of age) posted a lower percentage of touchdowns relative to targets. That year he was targeted 103 times and had 51 catches for 722 yards and 0 touchdowns.

    Out of 241 qualifying wide receivers over 7 seasons, Hartline's touchdown-to-targets percentage was 2nd lowest.

    And the company he keeps at the low end is not flattering.

    On the plus side you do have DeSean Jackson with a sub-2% number back in 2008 (his ROOKIE season), and you also have Steve Smith of Carolina appearing on the list at just under 2% in 2010 (the Jimmy Clausen year). And then you have Antonio Brown in 2011 with a percentage of about 1.6% (double Hartline's), which is the example most often cited.

    But on the minus side, the other guys at sub-2% include Marty Booker (2007), Davone Bess (2009 & 2012), Jerricho Cotchery (2007), Donald Driver (2007), Greg Little (2011), Jabar Gaffney (2010), Mike Williams of Seattle (2010), Derrick Mason (2006) and Matt Jones (2008). Not very flattering company. Has-beens, never-weres, #3 receivers, etc.

    From 2002 to 2005, ESPN does not record the targets information. However, using a cutoff of 60 catches yields much the same sample pool as 100 targets. Of the 126 qualifying receivers in that time period, only Laveranues Coles back in 2004 with the Washington Redskins (the Pat Ramsey year) had a smaller touchdown-to-catch percentage than Brian Hartline had in 2012. In 2002, both Easy Ed McCaffrey and Tim Brown had sub-3% touchdown-to-catch percentages, but both were clearly on the down slope of their careers. Ed McCaffrey was coming off a major injury that forced him to miss 15 games in 2001, had the season in question in 2002 (69 catches, 903 yards, only 2 touchdowns), and then he completely fell off the map in 2003 before retiring. Essentially, Ed McCaffrey's "Brian Hartline" season was his death rattle. Same with Tim Brown (2002: 81 catches, 930 yards, only 2 touchdowns), who fell off considerably in 2003 (52 catches, 567 yards, 2 touchdowns) and then fell off the map in 2004 before retiring.

    In the interests of full disclosure, Eric Moulds did have a "Brian Hartline" in 2003, with 64 catches for 780 yards and only 1 touchdown in the year Drew Bledsoe played the entire year at QB and only threw 11 touchdowns. But in Moulds' case, he was able to come back nicely in 2004 & 2005 before he fell off the map in 2006 & 2007.

    Here is what I take from this. Yes it is entirely possible for a pretty good player to have a season like this with a really awkward touchdown drought. But in the cases where those players were destined to turn things around (Laveranues Coles, Eric Moulds, Donald Driver, Derrick Mason, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith and Antonio Brown) these were guys that were either too young (DeSean Jackson a rookie, Antonio Brown a second year player, first year starter) or they had previously demonstrated an ability to score touchdowns over the years. Many of them had dismal quarterback situations that I don't think you'd compare with Ryan Tannehill, unless you're one of those that believes Tannehill was awful in 2012.

    Otherwise the guys that perform like this are basically flash in the pan types, career #3/#4 types that managed to have a flash-in-the-pan big year from a yardage/catch perspective, or they were on the down slope of their career and lacked the explosive abilities they once possessed. And even amongst those, arguably over a period of 11 years only 2 other players (Holt and Coles) had as uniquely bad a season from this perspective as Brian Hartline did.

    It doesn't really speak well for Brian Hartline no matter how you slice it and that's why I think there's no way you pay him more than $4 million a year.
     
  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The key information here IMO would be those quarterbacks' numbers of TD passes in those years.

    Of course we know Ryan Tannehill threw only 12 this year, and with him Brian Hartline's number of receptions per TD went from 28.1 to 74.
     
  18. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Outstanding research, Chris. thanks
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not as "key" or relevant as you think because if Brian Hartline had created more big plays and touchdowns then both his touchdowns tallies and the touchdown tallies of his quarterback, as well as his touchdown share would have all gone up. If those other numbers are down, that's partly his fault.
     
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  20. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill was bad in 2012.
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Just think about this though.

    We're talking about 367 qualifying wide receivers over an 11 season period. And yet, only 6 walked away with 0 or 1 touchdown, and only 2 had a lower percentage than Hartline over the period.

    That means his 2012 season ranked 365th of 367 for touchdowns as a percentage of catches and targets.

    And people want to pay him $6 million a year? Why? Based on yardage? Of these 367 qualifying receiver seasons, his ranks only #157th in total receiving yardage. Is that really that special? The 43rd percentile among receivers with a qualifying workload? That's good enough to warrant $6 million a year despite near-record low touchdown production?
     
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  22. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Brown landed a contract averaging 7 million a season after one breakout season in which he scored 2 touchdowns. How is it crazy to want to pay Hartline 5-6?
     
  23. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Yet he was able to average nearly three times fewer receptions per TD previously in his career than with Tannehill.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It was Antonio Brown's SECOND season in the NFL, only his first year as a starter. This was Brian Hartline's fourth season in the NFL, and he'd already demonstrated in 2010 & 2011 a disturbing trend for not scoring touchdowns.
     
  25. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Now statistically account for the rate of receptions per TD he had previously in his career, while adjusting for the increase in the number of TDs receivers typically have when experiencing a sudden jump in targets, receptions, and yards similar to Hartline's, but while playing even with merely an average QB, rather than a developmental rookie.

    Those are the needed stats here. The guy had a breakout year in terms of targets, receptions, and yards, while playing with a developmental rookie. If you want to figure out what he would've likely done with regard to TDs in a different context, you have to statistically account for the context he was in.
     
  26. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The fact that it was his second season in the NFL doesn't help your argument. He scored 2 touchdowns and landed a contract averaging 7 million a season. I don't see how it's unreasonable to want to give Hartline 5-6.

    Hartline has played with Henne nearly his entire career. Marshall, the man who scored 11 touchdowns this season, struggled to score with Henne. And now playing with a rookie who frankly wasn't very good this season was supposed to change his touchdown production?
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    He had a 1.5% touchdown-to-target ratio in 2011 and a 1.4% ratio in 2010 according to ESPN's data.

    That's the big accomplishment? That's the smoking gun? From 2006 to 2012, only four qualifying players did worse than those numbers. And one of them was Brian Hartline himself in a later year. LOL.
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Why? Because you arbitrarily say it doesn't? When a guy in only his 2nd year in the NFL, 1st as a starter, has an 1100+ yard season, I think you tend to forgive him a little more easily for only having 2 touchdowns (which is 2x the number of touchdowns scored by Brian Hartline in 2010, 2011 or 2012 bee tee dubs).
     
  29. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Antonio Brown in his third year scored five touchdowns while starting just ten games.

    Brian Hartline hasn't even scored five touchdowns in the past three years while starting thirty-six games.
     
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  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yes let's think of the most convoluted and impossible to gather and calculate stats ever so that we can put forth the idea that unless you can gather these stats then you are definitely right and anyone who argues against you is just misguided. Right. We'll call it the sword in the stone method of argument.
     
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  31. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And those numbers were about sliced in half (0.78%) with Tannehill in 2012, despite that he had a sudden and significant jump in receptions and yards.
     
  32. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    "Want to prove me wrong? Do all this work."

    Rinse, repeat...
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Or you can just gather the stats you think are important and call yourself right. Your call. :)

    And in the end we'll leave your conclusion as flimsy as "...that is, if you think Tannehill played poorly." :lol: :up:
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I know. Pretty terrible job by Hartline to have so few touchdowns even while getting an increased workload. His commitment to not scoring is unparalleled.
     
  35. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And why should it matter? Because you say it does. I fail to see the reason it does. Could you point it out for me? Considering you brought up the point, it would be fair to state why it's important.

    And no, you don't forgive him for it but criticize Hartline for it. Especially when you consider the fact that Hartline was playing with a rookie who was not very good this season while Brown was playing with Big Ben.
     
  36. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Wow, this thread got huge.

    There's a lot I criticize Ireland for. But if he decides not to overpay Hartline, even though he's a player I like, I won't make a peep. It would be good to keep him at the right price, but you can't pay him #1 WR money.
     
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  37. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And twice the commitment it used to be! :lol: ;)
     
  38. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And yet, in 3 seasons Brown is at 7 touchdowns compared to Hartline's 5 after 3 seasons. One playing with Henne/Tannehill and the other with Big Ben.
     
  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    More like, "want to find out the truth?"
     
  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Wow so you think a 2nd year player, 1st year starter should be held to the same standards as a 4th year player that has been the #2/#3 receiver pretty much the whole time?

    Good luck with that.
     
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