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Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Perfectville_USA, Jan 26, 2013.

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  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    At least now you're actually bringing up a good point.

    Now try and connect that point with the idea of one mistake justifying a second, copycat mistake.
     
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  2. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks.
     
  3. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I try. :)

    What was the initial mistake?
     
  4. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The point of from whom Hartline has received the ball was just introduced? :headscratch:
     
  5. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    At some point it would be nice if you would acknowledge the small samples of data that you choose to focus on. If a baseball player went 0 for 2 has had a batting average of .000, then got a hit and was 1 for 3 and his BA jumped to .333, should we alert the media? We're talking about a handful of TDs in 4 years- one more or one less changes the numbers significantly. Hartline's rookie year he had about 30 catches and 3 TDs. In the following 3 years he had a total of 3 TDs. So you can either blame the QBs or watch the games and look at the basic numbers and see that Hartline is historically very weak at TD production- an average TD production of 1.5 per year tells a pretty simple and bleak story. That makes more sense than reaching for data, focus on a small piece of data and calling it a trend, then blaming the QB because Hartline caught more passes but still couldn't sniff the endzone. He's a decent receiver, but not a particularly dangerous one and scoring TDs is certainly not his strong suit, at least after 4 years in the league.

    But iirc to want to argue that WR TDs are overrated anyway, so I'm not sure why you want to argue this point in the first place.
     
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  6. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're probably not going to get better for that money, especially not in this free agency period. There really aren't any guys in that price tier.
     
  7. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The only thing I'm arguing in this regard is that it's quite possible Hartline's TD production would've increased in his breakout season if he would've been receiving passes from a better QB. His production increased in nearly every other way, while his number of TDs per target and per reception decreased by half and by two-thirds, respectively.

    Now, that's playing lots of people's game of elevating TDs by receivers onto a pedestal on which they don't belong based on the data. But I'll play along and go there with regard to that topic, and speculate that Hartline was compromised by his rookie QB in that regard.

    The overall reality regarding that issue in this thread, IMO, is that Hartline needs to be viewed as fundamentally flawed to maintain our hope in Tannehill, which makes 1) TDs by receivers be elevated to a level of importance it doesn't have in reality, and 2) Hartline be inordinately blamed for his number of TDs in 2012.

    I'm merely providing objective data to counter that subjective avalanche, to bring a just a little perspective if you will.
     
  8. Cass

    Cass Active Member

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    Holy hell, 23 pages of "is Brian Hartline worth $7m p/a"..! Now I really have seen it all!

    FWIW my preference would be to let him test the market at that rate* and pursue both Wallace and Jennings for likely not much more. I quite like Hartline as a player incidentally.

    *Almost certainly there will be negotiation down from this starting point.

    Edit: sorry I blame Padre for introducing the $7m figure in my head. Of course the thread is $6m p/a, not 7. None the less, my post stands.
     
  9. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Probably because Lance Moore is a better WR than Hartline. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon didn't have an issue scoring with Henne.
     
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  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    This is complete, total, utter and unequivocal garbage infused bull **** on top of a convoluted craptacular sundae.

    Tannehill found Hartline enough for Hartline to get enough receptions to match up well with other #1 WRs. If he had 30 receptions and 70 targets you might have a point. Hartline has responsibilities that are not affected by who is throwing the goddamned ball, like catching the ball, getting open, getting separation, getting YAC, being a viable target in the redzone....and he failed miserably at all of those things except catching the ball.

    You keep telling everyone to do these incorrect stat analysis to figure out water is wet, so here's one for you....sit your *** down, and watch every passing play for the Dolphins and at least 3 other rookie QB teams and 3 other elite veteran QB teams and 3 other average or poor veteran QB teams. Then have someone else do the same thing that doesn't agree with you already so we have another opinion to go by. Show us how often Hartline was open and not thrown to compared to how often those other teams #1 WRs were open and not thrown to. Or do you not care about being thorough?
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Trying to say that the production of a 2nd year player in his 1st year as starter is not held to any different standard when it comes to judging his NFL value than a 4th year player that has been the #2/#3 receiver in all four years in the NFL, is just wrong IMO. It's not even a difference of opinion, it's just factually wrong because the NFL absolutely takes that into account when they judge values on guys. That was the initial mistake.

    Bringing up that Antonio Brown only has 7 touchdowns 3 years into his career while Hartline had 5 touchdowns at this stage of his career...is the correct point to bring up. It's a good point. And this time next year if Antonio Brown only has 7 or 8 touchdowns (as in he catches none next year, or maybe 1 touchdown) then I think it's fair to call into question whether his contract is dramatically overpaid.
     
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  12. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Your premises are questionable. The major gripe as per the WRs is the whole group being subpar and less than explosive- you hear a lot more of that than specific gripes about Hartline. The issue with Hartline as per this thread is, how much is he worth?

    I think that Tannehill is ok, I hope that he improves, I think that there are significant questions about him and I still think that Brandon Weeden is a better QB. But I really didn't see him as holding back Hartline as per TD production, Hartline was just being Hartline. Hartline's not being inordinately blamed as per this imo, he's just being recognized for what he is, a competent possession receiver that isn't much of a scoring threat.

    The other point about TDs by receivers is just illogical, for reasons already given. The data could point to many things, from an unbalanced level of offensive output to good passing games and WRs on bad, losing teams, but of course you'd want the WRs to score way more touchdowns if possible. If the 49r's score a lot of rushing TDs or the Pats score way more passing TDs via Gronk (when healthy), Hernandez and their RBs than they do with WRs, then good for them, there's more than one way to skin a cat. But your whole concept is little more than a diversion from the fact that our WRs are downright lousy in terms of TD production.

    Where do the Dolphins rank in terms of TD receptions from WRs? Could you please look at your stats and show us the numbers on the bottom 5 teams in the NFL in that regard? What is the percentage figure on how many more WR pass TDs the top 5 teams in that regard have than us? WR TDs aren't the end all, be all of winning football games, we already knew that. But they are important, for the simple reason that more TDs help to win more games. That's a very simple concept, but one that your analysis tries to minimize. The Dolphins have a deficiency there, in our lack of TDs from WRs, and that deficiency should be addressed. It's simple, logical and self evident. And in watching the games, it's clear to most that a lot of the blame for that falls on the substandard WR crew, not all of it. Your objective data doesn't do much if anything to counter that, and the point becomes moot- a lot people say blame the WRs mainly (me included) and you say blame the rookie QB.

    That being said, the notion that you have that Hartline is being dumped on to maintain hope in Tannehill is just dubious, at best.
     
  13. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    LOL 10 pages of "he only scored 2 TDs"
     
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  14. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    LOL at the thought of discounting the importance of a WRs ability to score TDs. Jeff Ireland will be LOLing Hartline's agent if he's silly enough to argue that Hartlines' lack of TD receptions isn't important as per contact negotiatons. Just look elsewhere Jeff, nothing to see here. That would be a true LOL.
     
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  15. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    If the topic we're talking about is how many TDs he caught, why would I do all that when I can just look at the data and realize that in 2012, his number of TDs per target decreased by half, and his number of TDs per reception was decreased by two-thirds, and then realize that during that particular season, he was being thrown passes by a developmental rookie QB who passed for only 12 touchdowns total?

    Come on people. This is real simple. You sit down and watch every play and controvert the parsimony offered by that simple data analysis. Enjoy. I'm content with my position on the issue. :up:
     
  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    I saw he wanted 5-6 million I chuckled when I saw it....

    I might as well ask for 100,000 from the department I work for...
     
  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And that's exactly the point. There is no solid evidence that wide receivers have such an "ability."

    When you take a look at the wide variation in the numbers of TDs wide receivers catch from season to season, and even from one half of one season to the other, and then you factor into the equation the passing ability of the quarterbacks throwing to them, the evidence for "touchdown catching ability" just isn't there.

    It's a mythical concept that's being treated as though it truly exists in reality, but I suspect it serves a crucial purpose for anyone who wants to believe that Ryan Tannehill needed only that to perform like Russell Wilson, RGIII, and Andrew Luck in 2012.
     
  18. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Please, let this drivel go. Paul Warfield Tds

    1971: 11
    1972: 3
    1973: 11

    There's a variation there, but he had an "ability" to score that most WRs don't. Your mythical concept is what, that all WRs are equal in terms of an ability to score TDs, and that number varies and is dependent only on the quality of the QB throwing to them? That is what I would call "a mythical concept that's being treated as though it exists in reality." Again, please just stop the nonsense.
     
  19. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Why would you not blame the rookie QB when 1) rookie QBs generally perform poorly in the NFL, 2) Tannehill's performance was not significantly different from the typical (average) rookie since 2004 in terms of QB rating, and 3) the TD rates per target and per reception for Bess and Hartline decreased significantly with Tannehill from where they were previously in their NFL careers?

    Sorry folks. I'm just not going to get on board with anything different regarding this. We might as well agree to disagree at this point. :up:
     
  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Sure thing. I'm happy to agree to disagree. :)
     
  21. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Because Hartline has averaged 1 1/2 TD receptions per year for 4 years, playing with 3 different QBs, and Bess hasn't been much better over 5 years. You can slice and dice the stats any way you want to, but at the end of the day the numbers still sit on your face. Thanks for playing, try again on a different subject.
     
  22. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually what they sit on very directly and convincingly IMO is the idea that their performance with regard to TDs was compromised by their rookie QB.

    These cute little remarks do absolutely nothing to change my mind, but they sure do suggest that you're rather insecure in your own position. :)
     
  23. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Not at all, just amused by the absurdity of some of your comments, like this classic bit of nonsense:

    "There is no solid evidence that wide receivers have such an "ability."

    When you take a look at the wide variation in the numbers of TDs wide receivers catch from season to season, and even from one half of one season to the other, and then you factor into the equation the passing ability of the quarterbacks throwing to them, the evidence for "touchdown catching ability" just isn't there."

    Here's a question for you: should the Dolphins ever bother drafting a WR again? If so, why, as opposed to just picking them up in free agency?
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If only. It was 1 touchdown, actually.
     
  25. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well if you're amused, why are we bothering to discuss the issue? You just sit back and laugh, we'll agree to disagree, and we'll both move on. :up:
     
  26. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    It would be nice if you could answer the question as opposed to avoiding questions as you've done in the past.
     
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  27. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    Honestly, just ignore him. It's not worth it.
     
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  28. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Yeah, there's no point, good idea.
     
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  29. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I'll choose what questions I want to answer and with whom I want to have discussions. The way you're conducting yourself in this discussion leaves me wanting to agree to disagree and move on, rather than answering your questions and continuing further. I'm not on trial here. :)
     
  30. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    He had 74 catches. If he'd have made 74 catches on passes thrown by for example Aaron Rodgers, how would that have increased the number of TDs he scored? Were Tannehill's passes all thrown with such velocity that they literally knocked Hartline off his feet when making the catch?
     
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  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    1 Td in 73 targets vs. 1 Td in 128 targets vs. 1 Td in 68 targets.

    Actually Sport, what that tells us, is that BH scores a TD every 68 targets. He would have needed to go TD-less over 13 more passes to maybe indicate he was hampered by Tanny (even then, it would be an insignificant number). But without that evidence (since it doesn't exist) it shows Hartline was right on his averages.
     
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Well think about it. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 touchdown passes. Ryan Tannehill threw 12.
     
  33. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Glad we could get the point fleshed out within 500 posts.
     
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  34. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Yet you have not been shy to put others on trial with your repeated questions. I'll take your non answer as a telling answer, there's no good reason to continue this. Hopefully in the future you can do some better research and come up with some better conclusions, because conclusions like a WRs talent level has no bearing on TD production are illogical, statistically or otherwise. The evidence that you gave is nonsensical. Using data is one thing, misusing it to try to prove inane points is another. With any luck you can find more relevant data in the future to prove your points, as dubious as they may be. Good luck with that.
     
  35. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Honestly I'm sure part of the problem was the fact that Tannehill was a rookie quarterback throwing the passes however when you're averaging one touchdown per season the past three seasons... I don't see how you can objectively just say "QB issues are the reason." Because he is a rookie quarterback who had limited experience in college, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Then you see them blame Chad Henne for Hartline's lack of production in the end zone in 2010/2011. The thing that bothers me is that Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon scored four touchdowns each in the final 8 game stretch that Chad Henne played in Jacksonville this past year.

    I want Hartline back but I don't want him back if he is going to cost $6.0M/yr. I am thinking somewhere in the $3.0M/yr - $4.0M/yr personally but if he thinks he can get so much more than that... then by all means he should test free agency.
     
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  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    And touchdowns per reception, past and present? :headscratch:
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You think about it. Who has a better receiving talent?
     
  38. uab_phin

    uab_phin New Member

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    Brown has 9 tds. I think that the value he brings as a returner needs to be considered when looking at his contract.
     
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  39. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What's the more parsimonious explanation, that Aaron Rodgers has 27 touchdowns more worth of "TD receiving ability" (there's that mythical concept again) in his receiving corps than Miami has in theirs, or that Aaron Rodgers has the highest QB rating of all time, and Ryan Tannehill is no different from a typical rookie, in terms of both QB rating and TDs thrown, and Rodgers is simply the much, much better QB at throwing touchdown passes at this point?

    MOD EDIT.
     
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sigh.

    1 TD in 43 rec vs 1 TD in 35 rec vs 1 TD in 74 rec.

    Which is 1 TD for every 35 catches.

    That shows he was all of 4 catches over his norm. 4 catches. That is not statistically relevant. You know it, I know it.

    MOD EDIT.
     
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