Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

I see you're moving the goal posts. Interesting that you've now chosen a cut-off point that is 4x higher than Brian Hartline's figure for the season. Hey why don't we just move it higher, let's see all the WRs with sub-5% touchdown-to-targets ratio. Or sub-10%.

 

That somebody is underrating Pouncey. Conversely, you could argue someone is overrating Hartline. The question is who is, and what does that tell us about Hartline's potential market.

 

Look, you asked if I knew HOW he got those votes, not WHO gave them to him. That's not trolling or being or difficult or derailing. For all you know, he got the votes because of the off season he had. Its why I'm specifically saying the Pro Bowl doesn't prove anything.

Your last paragraph is entirely untrue.

 

You're assuming Dolphins fans have to believe a Dolphin to actually be worthy of the pro bowl in order to vote him for the Pro Bowl. This is a terrible assumption.

 

Personally, I don't find the metric to be instructive of anything, so moving it doesn't make a difference for me? You are the one who cited it, so I think the burden for determining a cut-off point would be yours?

 

So the theory here is that Brian Hartline made the Pro Bowl because of fans that don't believe him to be among the top-64 in the NFL, yet voted for him anyways? One would think this would evident with Miami players being overrated in relation to players of other teams?

 

Pouncey made it as an alternate (though just like with Hartline, we don't know how far down the list he was). So did Starks, Fields, and Soliai. I'd have to go through all the teams pages to see who got named as an alternate, but even the Jags had two, for instance. There's nothing anyone can really point to with any certainty to determine who makes the alternate list and who doesn't. The only rule that holds constant is that the winningest teams usually have the most players (though there are exceptions, like Kansas City).

 

It's 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd...fans, coaches, players. At least it was last I checked.

And let's not pretend that player voting is really any more indicative than fan voting.

Simply put, Brian Hartline had the 6th highest receiving yardage total in the AFC. Considering the Pro Bowl accepts 4 wide receivers, is it REALLY a surprise that Hartline was one of the 4 alternates?

 

Obviously nobody knows. But the inverse question is just as valid: if you put Tannehill on the Packers with those WRs would he throw 39 TDs? 30? 25? 20? Similarly, if you put Rodgers on the Dolphins with Bess, Hartline, etc. would he really only throw 15 TDs? 20? 30?

 

Yes, we can say with certainty that its based on the votes of players, coaches, and fans. Beyond that, we are left to deductive reasoning and theorizing based on our own assumptions.

 

I didn't cite sub-3% as a cut-off. I cited sub-2%. You moved the goal posts so that you could include guys like Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe, even though they had between 3x and 4x higher percentages than Hartline's.

 

Probably not. But I bet he throws more than 12 and I bet at least on the top two WRs gets more than 1. <----That goes for both scenarios.

 

If someone truly believes Hartline isn't even among the top 64, or even 96 WRs in the league, then yes, that should be very surprising. Thats a pretty big disparity for the general consensus here to be that Hartline is ~70th best WR in the league, while a combination of coaches, players, and fans believe him to be among the top ~30.

 

Sorry for quoting myself here, but just to build on that Raider game, and to be fair to Hartline:

Hartline was exceptional throughout the game. He made some outstanding catches. But his one drop, and only real mistake was the non-TD catch, ironically.

He's a good player and I'd love to keep him on the team. But I guess I just question his balance, which effects his YAC, and ability to break tackles.

EDIT: And I'd like to see him catch the ball with his hands more often rather than catching it against his body. I recall a few times this season where a defender was able to get his hand between Hartline's hands and body and break the pass free.

 

Right, but why did you cite 3%? What is the significance of that point? If sub-2% is bad, is sub-3% bad? Is sub-3% just average? They both seem pretty bad to me.

 

Looks like the defender knocked the ball out...good video!!!

 

I didn't cite sub-3%. You did.

Would you prefer I cite sub-1%, that way pretty much only Brian Hartline and an ancient Torry Holt about to retire would fit the bill, out of 241 qualifying players?

 

Meant to say 2%. Why 2% for the cutoff?

 

Wait - is the point of this thread that Tannehill is holding Brian Hartline back?

This is why we can't have nice things, guys.

 

I didn't expect it. I thought that he had a pretty quiet year except for that one monster game. Hardly a star, and I wasn't thinking Pro Bowl, alternate or otherwise. I'm not really into juggling and manipulating stats, but take away that anomaly of a game and he had a pretty pedestrian year. He's a role player, plain and simple, not a star. Kind of our Kevin Walter with maybe half the TD production.

 

So there's no difference between what a guy produces in a given season, and what he's worth as a player? So Tom Brady should've gone to the Pro Bowl in 2008?

Incidentally you're making an assumption that I view him to be the 70th best wide receiver. That's an incorrect assumption.

 

Because it made sense statistically given the characteristics of the sample pool.

 

Yes, the defender did knock the ball out. But I can't help but think that at least 15-20 other WRs hang onto that ball. On just about any given catch there is a defender hacking at the ball. Good receivers are strong enough or have the ability to not let them disrupt the reception.

Hartline knows he should've hung onto that ball.

 

I don't know how many other WRs hang onto that ball, I can't really quantify that, but there are definitely other receivers that hang onto that ball.

Ryan Tannehill also threw Hartline a perfect ball on the run, the play where people claim (incorrectly, IMO) that Tannehill "missed" an open Davone Bess...and Hartline flubbed it.

There's also a play against the Cardinals where William Gay bit up hard on a fake and Hartline got behind him, caught the ball and began running. A lot of other receivers have the speed and/or physicality to turn that into a touchdown. I believe Hartline was caught from behind and tackled at like the 5 or 7 yard line.

Considering what an incredible lead he started out with on the 80 yard touchdown where Kerry Rhodes completely blew his coverage assignment, I thought it was disturbing that Hartline very nearly got caught from behind and pulled down short of the end zone. With other receivers that's not even a question.

 

I agree...but i cant help but think how well he played in that game....and how many times our "playmaker" Marshall would have dropped that same GD pass with no defender in the area. If I had to bet my retirement on a catch...Id go w/ Hartline. Didnt happen there and it should have...but then I would consider that an anomaly all things considered..

 

There are different ways to score TDs..one way is thru intellect and deception, another is thru pure athletic ability/strength. Which way can score more tds is part of the debate no? Or maybe Sho's POV, that's pretty interesting to me, and wish this debate would go more in that direction if true..

We know Hart is intelligent, on the field as well, we see how he uses his mental attributes to make corners look silly sometimes, we've heard the rumors about his film room acuity, however we know Hart can't do much with a three yard hitch, we know a more explosive player can, we know Hart needs to mentally defeat his opponent to get deep, an explosive one can run by..I would think the more explosive, stronger player like a Cruz is almost twice as good, and salary should reflect that.

I'd say Cruz is a ten million dollar receiver, I'd give Hart 5/6 mill..

 

I never said there was? I simply asked how everyone thought he became an alternate? Certainly its fair to say that he made it solely off his performance in 2012. My point is that if players/coaches believe he was a top-30 WR in 2012, then he's very likely to be paid like one as an UFA.

I'm not really assuming anything about how you view him. I am taking the spectrum of opinions I see on the forum and extrapolating that to assume that most him as ~70th best WR. I think the general consensus is that he's either a really bad #2, or good #3. There are about the same number of people that believe he's a #4 WR (96 better than him) as there are people that believe he's among the top-40 in the league.

 

It certainly is fair to say that a lot of WRs would hold on to that ball. I'm not sure its fair to say that good WRs catch that though. Where the problem starts IMO, is suggesting that not possessing any type of particular skill or trait precludes someone from being a good or great WR. Brian Hartline certainly isn't a physical player. He isn't making catches that catch people's attention. But how often do people say "that WR made a great read?". How often do people point out a WR running the wrong route? There is an inherent bias toward a particular style of play, and Brian Hartline doesn't fit that style.

 

Agreed

[video=youtube;lmHPRx0RuIE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmHPRx0RuIE[/video]

 

You could be right. That's why I said, I'd be willing to spend more and even more if it's the right player. I'd love to see Hartline kept but not at the risk of not getting someone better.

 

Damn...another excellent video...your bringing the wood tonight 05!!!

 

Im don't see how pointing out the bad contracts signed by other GMs furthers your point.

 

Thanks. With this camtasia screen recorder and NFL rewind it's so simple. I just click record, play, pause, stop and it uploads right to my youtube account.

If there is ever anything in particular you want to see posted I can post it

EDIT: within reason of the NFL copyright laws. None of my videos have been taken down yet. I don't think they mind a play here and a play there

 

I'd say the amount of response and discussion determines just how erroneous and insincere the involved questions or points are, regardless of your opinion about them. You may be certainly be annoyed, however, and choose not to respond.

 

Here's the other play against the Raiders I'm talking about. Hartline rolled to his right and hit Hartline square in the end zone. Ball wasn't broken up by a defender or anything. Hartline just couldn't haul it in.

 

I wouldn't even call Pierre Garcon's contract a bad one, if he manages to stay healthy. Nor would anyone that actually watched Garcon play in Washington this year.

 

Philbin and Ireland to name a couple. Which is why he won't be seeing anything north if 4 million IMO.

 

Of course the problem with analyzing these single plays, even if there are several of them, is that there is no corresponding ability to balance the analysis with examples of what didn't happen, i.e., when Hartline was open but wasn't thrown to, for example.

 

And yet your stats do?

 

Thats not really pointing out the bad contracts as much as it pointing out what UFA WRs receive.