Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

Stats in general do, IMO. I don't own any stats, personally.

 

The stats you use, in no way, show what didn't happen. They don't even show who did what.

 

IIRC, Shouright & Anonymous voted six hundred thousand times combined.

 

Sure they do. Ryan Tannehill didn't throw more than 12 TD passes, for example.

 

We did it!

The funny thing about this thread is that I believe Brian Hartline is nothing more than a significantly above-average possession receiver. However, I do think that's worth his asking price in today's game, regardless of his historical TD stats.

 

Good point. If I could figure out how to post plays like Eop05 does I could show a few examples of Hartline being open and not having the ball delivered. I remember a few times that this happened thoughout the year. Nothing to write home about but I remember thinking...."damn"..that could have been 6.

Hartline is a solid receiver and we should try and keep him....but at a decent price.

 

Garçon yeah, if he stays healthy. But you cant really be a good player if youre not playing. The other guys on the list are stealing money. People ask why Ireland didn't address the WR spot and Meachem, Robinson, Manningham etc are good answers.

This year is different. Better talent, better depth, both in FA and in the draft. All the more reason not to go all Dan Snyder trying to bag Brian Hartline.

 

5 Million is probably a good price to settle on with Hart.

 

Excellent. The same stats show Hartline didn't score more than one TD like every other #1 WR.

 

Correct! And both of those statistical observations are better than one or a few pieces of game film IMO.

 

Again details, but I wouldn't include Manningham on the list of guys stealing money. He got a 2 year deal worth $7.375 million. That includes a $2 million signing bonus and $1.2 million salary, $350k worth of per game roster bonuses and workout bonus. So essentially they could cut Manningham after one year and they'll have paid him only $3.55 million. Or they could keep him to term and pay him an average of $3.7 million per year.

Essentially Mario Manningham got the exact contract that Brian Hartline should probably get.

 

And has been said 1000 times to you now, you need both plus logic to see the whole story. However, you are perfectly comfortable not only using stats incorrectly, but discounting logic and observation.

 

It's simple.

If a speed guy like Garcon or Desean Jax gets behind the d the QB can throw it up and let him run under it. If a bigger WR like Fitz or Marshall gets deep a soft lob allows them to elevate over the DB and make the catch. Hartline is different. He can't gear up to go get even a slight overthrow and he doesn't have the agility/leaping ability to go up and catch the underthrow.

You basically gotta put the ball on a line, get it there before the DB can recover, but no so far down field that BH can't get to it. It's very difficult to do. The NE game is a good example. BH blows past Talib twice. The first is aired out Nd Hartline can't get to it, the 2nd is thrown short and Hartline can't come back for it. Typical Hitman.

 

Drew Brees is the reason why. Lance Moore isn't better than Hartline.

 

Wow, you're right. This one is bad.

BTW, it was against the Jets. And again Hartline knows he should've had it as he gets up in frustration.

Here's the video from the All-22:

[video=youtube;g5C7frteXDM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5C7frteXDM[/video]

 

This is anecdotal of course, since I'm unable to do a thorough scouring of film at this time, but Hartline doesn't adjust to the ball in the air very well. I remember several plays from this year (that naturally, caused a squabble to break out in gameday threads) as well as past plays such as the Joe Haden interception of Chad Henne in 2010 that exemplify this.

 

With showing these single plays, we've displayed that Hartline probably should have had 3 TDs after just the first 4 games.

The stats alone could not do that. The video of the plays showing him dropping TD passes can.



EDIT: I'm sorry. If you want to count the play against Gay where he is caught from behind. It is arguable that Brian Hartline should have had 4 TD receptions in the first 4 games had he not dropped two and been able to out run a DB he had a five yard cushion on.

 

I'm well aware of your opinion in that regard by now.

 

WADR, why do people keep saying he made the Pro Bowl? I didn't see him in Hawaii. Did you?

He was voted an alternate, on the back of a 257 yard game that received a great deal of publicity at the time. He wasn't voted in b/c of 1 TD, and he wasn't voted in b/c of his 8 games of 50 yards or less, nor 3 games under 20.

It's a travesty that Hartline was an alternate over Eric Decker (1064 yards, 13 TD, and only 5 games at 50 yards or less).

Ditto for Hartline over Steve Johnson (1046 yards, 6 TD, 5 games at 50 yards or less, and only 1 under 20 yards).

Heck, Hartline shouldn't have beaten out Cecil Shorts who missed 2 games and had to deal with 2 QBs yet still tallied 979 yards, 17.8 ypc, 7 TD, 4 100 yard games, only 3 games at 50 or less yards, and during the 2nd half of the season caught 43 passes, 695 yards, 4 TD, 9.03 YPA.

Comparatively, Hartline's final 8 games featured 33 catches, 421 yards, 0 TD, 7.26 avg, which aren't remotely close to Pro Bowl caliber numbers.

 

Its not my opinion, its fact.

You have disregarded observation and logic repeatedly. Have you not?

 

You're right, Phins.

My bad Stringer, Hartline being a Pro Bowl alternate does prove something. It proves the Pro Bowl is not to be used in an argument as proof of someone's ability or worth.

 

So the best tack to take at this point is to investigate statistically the number of drops Hartline had in the end zone, and compare it to that of other receivers in the league. I have no idea how that would turn out.

Watching the games is good for generating hypotheses. You need to investigate them statistically IMO in order to reach a solid conclusion that reflects a balanced analysis.

 

Do you actually think I'm going to agree to that?

 

If we were already in possession of a dynamic, playmaking caliber receiver whom we weren't overpaying, I'd make Hartline a higher priority signing, but seeing as we don't, I put the obtaining of a top FA receiver as priority number 1. Once that goal is accomplished <as well as some of our other signings finalized> is when I'd revisit signing Hartline based on the cap space (present and future) we have left.

 

Hartline had more experience, sure. That's negated by the fact that Brown played with Big Ben and Hartline played with Tannehill.

 

Yes, absolutely a travesty that NFL players and coach's eyes disagree with yours?

 

Am I the only dumbazz here who actually likes Brian Hartline? I realize he has limitations and we need to manage the salary expectations...but do the majority of folks here want to see him walk?

Honestly...Hartline was one of the few bright spots I observed this year. I would like to keep him and add a playmaker...I think Tanny started to show some chemistry w/ Hartline and I think keeping this is a move forward....we just need to add some serious WR firepower to the mix.

 

9 career touchdowns compared to Hartline's 7 career touchdowns.

Huge deal?

 

Yes, and in the first 3 games, Hartline dropped the only 2 passes that hit him in the hands while in the endzone.

I find it hard to believe that other receivers that the general consensus of this board hold to a higher regard than Hartline have a higher drop rate in the endzone than Hartline.

And to go even further if you want to go even deeper: You could chart out scoring potential plays (like the one where he is caught from behind by Gay when he had a 5 yard cushion and no one in front of him en route to the endzone.). This would require a lot of work that I expect no one not getting paid to do.

But I find it hard to believe that these other higher regarded receivers left as many plays/scoring-potential-plays on the field as Hartline.

Even watching Bess's ability to rack up YAC is impressive when displayed alongside Hartline.

 

I alone voted 600,00 times.

 

Yes, for some reason Brian Hartline has more 20+ yard receptions than all of those guys this season except for Marshall, and he only had 4 more in longer plays with 66 more balls thrown at him.

Wonder how that'd work out when you added in long pass interference plays, too?

 

Nope.

I like him. Would like to keep him around at the right price which is <= 5 million per year.

But he's limited in some of the things he can do, IMO. And when your WR unit relies on him and Davonne Bess and basically no one else, it's going to make your QB's job (no matter who it is, regardless of age or experience) harder than it should or has to be.

 

I clearly underestimated you. I apologize.

 

You're changing the goal posts now. You yourself were the one that brought up that Antonio Brown has 7 touchdown receptions in his first 3 years in the league which compares favorably to Brian Hartline's 5 touchdown receptions in his first 3 years in the league.

Now all the sudden it behooves you to compare a 4 year career's totals with a 3 year career's totals. This inconsistency would suggest that you're not as beholden to the facts or the process of evaluation, as you are the conclusion and trying to find any way you can to justify the conclusion.

 

My thoughts exactly!

 

Oops. I said Raiders. I meant Jets. The Jets are about as bad as the Raiders nowadays anyway, and only getting worse...so easy mistake to make.

 

I remember that Joe Haden pick. Hartline did not adjust to the ball in the air at all. He seemed like he was frustrated and more interested in running through it and complaining than coming back to the ball. He was frustrated because it was a bad, very late throw. Henne has a good arm but it was woefully underthrown because it was so late. Still doesn't excuse Hartline for not even making an effort to come back for the ball. But I think that had more to do with mental stuff going on than it did skill. Generally I don't have much problem with his ability to adjust to the football. Just his inability to run under it.

 

Yup. You are correct. Brian Hartline had the easy opportunity to have 4 touchdown receptions in the first 4 games alone.