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Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Perfectville_USA, Jan 26, 2013.

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  1. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    And you, of course, proved nothing. When you did this comparative study at what point did you factor in other aspects of football that effect win/loss outcomes such as defense, running games, special teams? Because bad football teams can have good passing offenses, right? And if these teams have WRs who score a lot of TDs, that could effect the data, right? Maybe the Lions, who went 4-12 with Stafford throwing for almost 5,000 yards and CJ setting the receiving yardage record, right? Maybe there's just not much of a connection there, because the data that you focus on is myopic, doesn't factor in a multitude of other elements that go into winning and losing football games. Right? Maybe TD receptions by WRs are just part of the whole picture and better, winning teams have more balanced offenses and better defenses and that would effect the data. Possible, huh? Maybe the Saints, with their effective passing game and lousy defense effect the data as well, what do you say? And that kind of makes your whole study pretty irrelevant. WR receiving TDs are part of the whole, not a single determining factor in winning or losing. When you eliminate the other critical factors you eliminate the legitimacy of your conclusions. Your use of data is questionable and your conclusions are indefensible.

    Sounds to me that the link that you're trying to connect between the percentage WR TD receptions and winning is pretty weak. Go ahead and try to controvert the above paragraph, I'd love to see it.

    Have fun with that.
     
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  2. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Shouwrong is the only Miami fan living in that sort of bubble but just going by this thread, 2-3 of his little friends from the forum come over to play from time to time. :shifty:
     
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  3. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also, Shou, did you control for defense too?
     
  4. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Where do your statistics reflect how often a defense can play with 8 men in the box because the opposing WRs aren't deep threats, and how that effects the running game, QBR and the entire offense statistics?
     
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  5. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    So...it is your position that the QB, in this case Tannehill, forces him to drop perfectly thrown passes, or to get caught from behind when he has 5 yards of separation, or to get tripped up by a blade of grass?
     
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  6. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Sorry, that doesn't fly. People here are saying that the WR TDs are an important factor, which seems fair enough- you're saying that they have little to no importance because the percentage of WR TDs to winning is a weak correlation. You're also the one that factored out defense and everything else, which makes your data and conclusions meaningless. If you want to continue to play your losing, or rather lost hand, that's fine. But you really shouldn't misrepresent what's going on here. It's not appropriate for you to start playing historical revisionist. Just go down with the ship quietly, peacefully and with some dignity left.
     
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  7. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    There's only one throw that Tannehill missed where it would have been a TD for Hartline, and that was the deep pass that he overthrew by roughly 4 yards when Hartline had 6-7 yards of separation from the last member of their secondary.

    One.

    Get off Tannehill's back!
     
  8. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Hartline is ok by me. I'd like to see him stay and it would be nice if he scored around 4-5-6 Tds in one season.

    Because the number one target will be getting more and he aint that..
     
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  9. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Where do "any" statistics reflect every variable that has an affect? Do you think every variable is held constant and the only thing that goes into QBR is the QB's execution?
     
  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Not all 25+ yard chunk plays are created equal.

    • Excluding the Zona busted coverage TD, Hartline has ZERO chunk yardage TDs in 4 years.
    • Hartline's 6 TDs (excluding Zona) total 47 yards, 7.8 yards per TD.
    • Hartline's YAC ability to stretch those chunk yardage plays into even greater chunk yardage is miserable.
    On the contrary:
    • Mario Manningham has 13 chunk yardage TDs for 542 yards <42 yards per TD> during the same span.
    • Cecil Shorts had 5 chunk yardage TDs this year alone for a total of 287 yards <57 yards per TD>.

    I needed a calculator to add Manningham's chunk yardage TD production; meanwhile I asked my 6 year old niece to add up Hartline's.... and she got her answer before I did.
     
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  11. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Wow. Remember that the next time late in the 4th quarter of a close game a Dolphins WR makes a play and gets dragged down inside the 10 yard line instead of scoring a TD. See how you feel then and if you take comfort in a statistic that shows that a long reception has the same expected outcome of a long TD reception.
     
  12. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    How in Hades did he score 5 TDs w that scrub, developmental rookie QB tossin the rock?
     
  13. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    There is a strong correlation between your hypotheses and total bullsheeit.
     
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  14. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Good point, just keep that in mind as to the inherent limitations of statistics.
     
  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Then gives it Daniel Thomas for a 2 yard run into the back of our blockers.

    Lol.
     
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol, I don't think it's total BS but your post was funny.
     
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  17. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    In SBs defense, I think they use WPA in those situations. I like DYAR and DVOA instead of EPA and WPA, but that's just me. It's probably because I'm more used to them.
     
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  18. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Are you referencing the play in OT vs the Jests when he got behind Cromartie on a double move, Tanne hit him in stride and he gets tackled by the humid air? Or the similar play at San Fran where the safety tackled him by one of his sock threads
     
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  19. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Congratulations. You have just encountered and conquered the perpetual moving goal posts of Shouwrong the mighty Strawman.
     
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  20. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Gee, maybe a factor here could be that losing teams pass more because they are usually behind late in games and they get more WR receivng TDs as a result, often "garbage time" TDs?

    A winning team doesn't necessarily have to have a high percentage of WR rec TDs, there's no mystery there. But where you fail is when you say that the WR TDs are therefore statistically irrelevant. That is just some lousy analysis.

    If an offense like ours can't rely on WRs to score TDs, that is a weakness, ,and that's very relevant. No one is saying that the stat is the end all, be all, just saying that it's important. You're the one saying that the % of WR TDs is irrelevant to winning. Which, of course, is just your straw man argument because the real factor here is the number of WR TDs, not the percentage. Not only is that bogus, but you make it worse with statements like this:

    "Touchdowns by wide receivers are not strongly associated with winning, no, and when the variance associated with QB rating is partialled out, they actually have a weakly negative relationship with winning."

    Seriously dude, get a grip. WR TDs are of course important, but losing teams score them, too. You're reaching for conclusions that aren't there, and you omit so many other factors of winning and losing that your whole point is de facto irrelevant.
     
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  21. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I don't think convincing you, per se, of anything is on my agenda. I'm quite content with your going on believing whatever you'd like, as I'm sure you'd do regardless of what I did. :)
     
  22. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Of course, the same thing goes for throwing out QBR or any statistic. I use statistics that support what I see/saw on the field of play. I watched every Dolphin snap this year...almost, I did turn off the Titans game in the 4th quarter. What I saw was a consistent and dependable WR in Hartline that had a rookie QB who may or may not turn out to be top 15 QB let alone a top 10 QB. I would hate to think of RT's year if he didn't have Hartline to throw to.

    Considering there was talk about Hartline not playing all preseason due to injury and possibly being shut down for the year, then being placed into the #1 role while having to play with an inconsistent rookie QB, Hartline completely exceeded my expectations and I think $5-$6 million per year is fair. I am not saying Hartline is a speedster that will turn a 10 yard slant into a 60 yard TD on a regular basis. But I do think he is capable of putting up 6-8 TDs per year with a decent QB/play-calling that gives him chances in the endzone. Averaging 15 ypc over his career while having Henne, Moore, Tannehill throwing him the ball has to account for something as a guy who can make chunk yardage...doesn't it?

    Is your point that you see Hartline as an inconsistent WR that doesn't get separation, able to catch the ball in traffic and suffers from the drops and is significantly benefited from 8 in the box?
     
  23. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I don't think you're going to be defining how much dignity I have anytime soon, but nice try, God. :)
     
  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I feel so conquered. :rolleyes:
     
  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Of course you don't.

    You're a mod too. Sigh.
     
  26. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    My gawd, the more I read that, the more ridiculous it sounds.

    The 66 yd TD catch is definite points. There is no most likely about it. The 66 yd non TD catch does not always lead to a subsequent TD.
     
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  27. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's better than both. Especially Henderson.
     
  28. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Wonder why so many people spend so much time responding, then? :headscratch: ;)

    I don't know about y'all, but when I see total BS, I ignore it and put the person on my ignore list. I don't spend any time engaging with the person.
     
  29. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No.
     
  30. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I'd be happy to adjust my point of view if your research and conclusions had merit. They don't.

    And as to your comments, my comments in the last two sentences of the post that you responded to were an homage to your comments in post #648 of this thread. And I quote:

    "And here we are on page 17 (for me at least), and no one has controverted my statement that TDs by wide receivers are meaningless with any objective data.

    TDs by wide receivers correlate with win percentage at 0.40. When you control for QB rating, that correlation drops to -0.19.

    Have fun with that."

    Shouright, try to not be the hypocrite, ok?
     
  31. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    No, he's not. If he were on the Saints, Colston and Moore would still start. Henderson is a more logical 3rd because he has deep speed that Hartline can only dream of.
     
  32. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I'm not sure you're understanding this correctly. By "holding QB rating constant," what I mean is that we're statistically removing the association between QB rating and winning when measuring the relationship between winning and TD passes caught by wide receivers. Does that clarify anything for you?
     
  33. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Do you see your purpose here as policing my activity?
     
  34. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    In what ways would Tannehill's improvement cause Hartline to score more TDs in 2013? You did say he'd score more, if there was better QB play. Or words to that effect.
     
  35. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    No, but pointing out your inconsistencies seems appropriate.
     
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  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    The fact that this question is being asked at this point illustrates the insanity of this thread IMO. My God.
     
  37. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yea he is. What does the all knowing PFF say?
     
  38. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Good for you. Have fun with that. :)
     
  39. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Far too many to deal with, but I can respond to some here and there.
     
  40. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You know the answer to that question.
     
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