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Hartline wants 5-6 million per season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Perfectville_USA, Jan 26, 2013.

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  1. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually you can agree with me either way, if you'd like, since I've made no claims at all about those criteria. ;)

    I'm just spitting out data folks! I don't own this stuff. Anybody can do this.
     
  2. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    But the passengers in the bus, the Wide Receivers, deliver the payload. They count, too.

    Are you able to locate the data that I asked about:

    "If WR TDs are truly irrelevant, the data should prove that out. So maybe someone can actually find the data as to when the last time a team with 3 WR TD receptions or less:

    1. Won the Super Bowl
    2. Made the pkayoffs
    3. Had a winning record"

    Thx.
     
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  3. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Oh my frigging gawd. What if the hound hadn't stopped to sh!t? He maybe wudda caught the rabbit.
     
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  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    What if they aren't?

    Look, there is no way this works out in favor of your stance anymore.

    Hartline doesn't score TDs regardless of the QB, the offense, or the position he's playing. He is pretty consistently what he's always been regardless of every major variable you can throw at him.

    Tannehill threw TDs at the normal amount to all his other target groups.

    Every pundit and analyst says we need more explosive talent at the Wr position. Our coach and Gm both say it.

    The stats show it. Common sense shows it. Logic shows it.

    There is simply no other avenue for you to take this anymore.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But a td can only be a td if its caught correct? You take all WR responsibility out with these sorts of statements. Wideouts with better abilities can make harder catches tan receivers with lesser abilities, thus making a QBs job easier. Also, in looking at the last three years, two years just at Super Bowl teams, it certainly seems that WR TDs are pretty important.
     
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  6. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Sorry, I just posted, missed this response. I'm more curious about the data, no about agreeing with you or not. Since you ran similar yet more specific data hopefully you can provide these numbers, thx. It's just a different way of looking at the issues at hand, a different point of view. It doesn't prove or disprove anything.
     
  7. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I'm unable to do that data search myself due to time constraints, but let me ask you this: if no such teams existed, what would tell you that quarterback play wasn't at fault in those instances?
     
  8. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Then I'm wrong.
     
  9. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Jezus H Christ on a bike. I'd rather pierce my nipples with 16 penny nails and tie them with parachute cord to a half grown mountain gorilla on crack cocaine, who was then shot in *** with a shotgun loaded with rock salt and bird shot. :no:
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You are. Demonstrably so. It has actually been demonstrated now, many times in many different ways.

    Lay down your sword.
     
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  11. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I think that both QBs and WRs contribute to the passing game, clearly. I would say that QB play is more important, but both quality QB play and quality WR play are vital.

    A parallel discussion would be, what's more important to the running game, the RBs or OL? My guess is that the correct answer isn't a shocker- they're both important. I would guess that different slices of data can favor one side or the other, but I would never think that RBs mean everything and the OL means nothing, or vice versa. Take a very good RB and a poor OL and you have a problem; take a very good OL and a poor RB and you have a problem- there can always be exceptions, but these seem to be very reasonable conclusions to me.

    ps To answer your question, no. My first thought would be, "man, this team's QB must suck."
    But as to the Dolphins- I'm no huge Tannehill fan, but after the last 4 years of Hartline and 5 years of Bess- I think that I can safely say that they blow at scoring TDs. COuld a better QB help them in that regard? Sure. But plays like the Arizona Hartline catch- William gay tracked his a** down, quickly. Hartline isn't particulary fast or elusive, he's just not a particular TD threat. And, at least in my opinion, the ability of the WR crew to make reasonable contributions to the act of scoring TDs counts, a lot. They don;t do it alone, QBs don;t do it alone, it's a combined effort in a sport that is chock full of combined efforts.
     
  12. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    It's not that Shouright's research doesn't have merit or isn't interesting, it's that the conclusions derived form his studies go way too far, at least imo. Though provoking yes, but wadr the conclusions, although interesting, are too loosely tied to the data to have any true relevance. They do make you think, though.
     
  13. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So you need an accountant and statistician to count two separate numbers?

    CPA license to look at a score?

    Wow.

    So when my 6 year old nephew sees a score and can tell who wins, you'll tell him, hold up, we need these scores audited?
     
  14. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Actually I'll run the data on rookie quarterbacks' TD throws to wide receivers and post it. It's entirely possible the data support what you're saying. We shall see.
     
  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Davone Bess was catching 5 TDs that's how ;)
     
  16. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    No, but then again I'm not an accountant or a statistician either, and look at all we've accomplished here. ;)
     
  17. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    But he had only ONE this year! He can't score, and that's why Tannehill sucked! ;)
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No one has made this claim. Ever.
     
  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I agree about the issues. I don't agree with the rest though. That's honestly not a knock on him or anyone else.

    But seriously, for me, phinsational, shula guy, Mr Clean, CK and jdang to all be on the same side of a debate means the other side has to be wrong. Cause that group has never agreed on anything...ever. lol.
     
  20. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Huh? Unrelated.

    TD's by WR's matter. They are not meaningless. You're trying to move it even further.
     
  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Wait you don't want to focus on the minutia of the argument, by providing a point that is the minutia of the argument?

    There is a reason why without ANY offseason, even getting to the point of almost dying, that Bess was still unable to beat out Hartline for the main target receiver.
     
  22. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    They were both targeted 7.4 times per game on average. If Bess had not missed the final 3 games he would have probably led the team in catches since his catch pct was very slightly higher.
     
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  23. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I thought more about it and realized that with this line of reasoning, you've planted us squarely back at post #271 on this page:

    http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...s-amp-Hartline-s-Number-of-TDs-an-Issue/page7

    Wonderful, eh? :lol: ;)
     
  24. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Well-Known Member

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    See, folks? THIS is a straw man. Well done, Shouright, you've demonstrated it for us!
     
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  25. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Yes, and fully intentional. In other words, I know nobody is saying that. I used the straw man only to illustrate a point.

    Now, sometimes people erect a straw man and actually believe it represents what the other person is saying! :)
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Shou, I have given WR td numbers for the last three Super Bowl's teams for the regular season. I did this years playoff teams, most of them at least, and none of those teams dropped into singe digits for TD passes to receivers. Now, if Tannehill is right on average for TEs and RBs TDs, then the issue indeed lies with TDs to receivers. I think we agree here. Where we diverge is whether or not that probem rests with Tannehill, receivers, or combo of both. You place the blame on Tannehill, going so far as to start a thread "proving" that there is really no difference between Miami's receivers and the Falcons, Redskins, Pats, Seattle, etc. Most people discussing this with you agree that Tannehill struggled some...but the idea that Miami's receivers didn't adversely affect Tannehill somewhat, due to their limitations, is hard to believe. Hartline and Bess played like they do every year, basically, and its somehow Tannehill held them back?? I'm more inclined to believe that Tannehill played a large part in Hartline having a career year for yardage. Essentially, Tannehill made chicken salad out of chicken sh*t.
     
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  27. PhiNomina

    PhiNomina White-Collar Redneck

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    In the interest of being fair - when comparing WR with a similar number of targets to Hartline, he actually has a pretty high rate of receptions that traveled over 20 yds in teh air. But very few of those result in touchdowns. Also - very few of his shorter passes were stretched into bigger gains (if he caught a pass from 10-20 yards, he didn't turn it into a 30-40 yd gain) or touchdowns. This is true for most of his career.

    I'm struggling to find a comp for him. He can get open, but will not create his own big plays or extend large gains into touchdowns. He seems completely dependent on the QB getting him the ball when he gets open, but not to create something of his own, or after he has received the ball.

    I still wrestle with giving that set of talents $5-6 million a year.
     
  28. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    But look at what he and Bess were able to do in terms of helping the team win (WPA) despite catching only one touchdown apiece, and despite receiving passes from a rookie QB:

    http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2012&pos=WR&season=reg

    Check some of the names below them on that list (Cruz, Harvin, Wayne, B. Marshall, Boldin, Manningham, Maclin, S. Smith [Carolina], D. Jackson, Nicks, Bowe, Britt, Fitzgerald, Wallace).

    It's quite possible that what I bolded above just isn't as strongly predictive of winning as many people believe.
     
  29. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    you mean like you you stuck with your false belief that Hartline didn't score TDs b/c of his QB's passer rating? lol
     
  30. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You'll have to point me to that one.
     
  31. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Wide receivers can score ALL. BY. THEMSELVES........ and more TDs, not less, provide a better chance to win. Bam, done. Only you would make such an asinine assertion that increasing TD production doesn't increase the chance of winning. According to your thought process, I guess Hartline falls down immediately upon contact because he knows if he runs it in we're more likely to lose the game. :sidelol: Hey, it was a good thing Brandon Marshall dropped those 4+ TDs in 2011 b/c doing so gave us a better chance to win those close games. :sidelol:

    LOL. Righhhht, cause we won soooo many games this year with our starting receivers scoring 2 combined TDs. :lol:
    900 posts in and you've YET to show why a 2 TD pair of starting receivers is more conducive to winning than a pair that scores 12+ combined. The onus is on you, not the other way around, as we've already gone the minimalistic TD approach which failed. It's LAUGHABLE you argue against this despite seeing 4 straight losing seasons with a lack of scoring production from receivers.
     
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  32. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    "One"? More like one hundred. You could blindfold yourself and throw a dart and probably hit an instance on the first throw.
     
  33. "Contrary to many people's belief, the talent around Ryan Tannehill isn't any worse in terms of the Miami Dolphins' offensive performance than the talent around either Tom Brady or Matt Ryan."

    That is an excerpt from an entire thread that you created to advance that concept.
     
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  34. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Once you understand what I'm saying, let me know.
     
  35. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Shouldn't be much trouble for you, then.
     
  36. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    What concept?
     
  37. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I take both of those with a large grain of salt b/c the expected points added is arrived at subjectively, and yards per target doesn't tell the whole story in its own right, plus EPA doesn't factor in the coverage a receiver faces from what I've seen.

    For instance, AdvancedNFLStats has Hartline with a higher EPA per play than AJ Green, Cruz, Marshall, Fitzgerald, and Wayne, which is a bigger load of bull**** than something I'd expect a politician to put forth. Even you agree b/c when you listed 3 players to surround a terrible QB with and still have a chance to win a SB, you listed Cruz as the receiver, not Hartline. It's not just bad, it's flat out laughable. Cruz ranked 46th, Green & Wanye 53rd & 54th, Fitzgerald 77th (one spot ahead of Dexter McCluster :lol:).

    I've already noted how yards per target is influenced by being less dynamic of a player and not offering a contribution to the short passing game. There's a reason Hartline averages 46 receptions per season where as Brandon Marshall averages 87. Hakeem Nicks averages 64 despite playing 5 less games, was injured all year, and has been in an offense with greater receiver competition & depth. Hartline was, by default, the primary receiver in an offense that essentially featured just 2 receivers all year, yet couldn't amass more than 74 catches despite not facing stiffer coverage. If any of those aforementioned receivers were in Hartline's same favorable situation <only 2 receivers and facing single coverage all year>, they'd likely set an NFL single season record in receptions... but their YPA would be lower than Hart's due to heavy contribution in the efficient, short passing game.
     
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  38. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    more like- when you understand what you're saying let me know.
     
  39. I dont know why you insist on being so obtuse. FTR this is why I do not even like engaging you on this subject matter. You asked for an example in response to this quote:

    I gave you one in an OP in a thread that you created. I could also dig up another quote from you where you say that the more TDs a WR has directly correlates to a lower QBR. Impling that if Hartline and bess had scored more TDs that is probable that RT would of had a lower QBR for the season.

    This has been your premisis for weeks now and your asking us to prove it to you........WHY?

    If your being missunderstood....... Explain it to us

    If you want to just agree to disagree then why do you keep coming in threads and starting new threads to rehash the same argument?
     
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  40. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    :rolleyes:
     
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