Feel free to post how you think it's going to go. No need to pretend they're anything special or valuable since free agency hasn't even begun yet. But what are you thinking? I'll start. 01. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M Comment: The Chiefs allow Branden Albert, a decent left tackle, to walk via free agency because his demands are too expensive. They replace him who they believe to be the best offensive tackle in the Draft. Though I could see Andy Reid liking Geno Smith, I do not believe their General Manager will go for Geno. And I think, given Reid's history, he will agree that they can build a quarterback and do not necessarily need to draft one high. Part of me really wanted to go for some shock value and put Lane Johnson in for this pick. I think he's the best offensive tackle in the Draft. But in the end, the Packers' history with Dorsey part of that program doesn't steer toward Johnson. It steers more toward Joeckel. 02. Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri Comment: Gus Bradley places an emphasis on players that play FAST on the football field. That is one reason he will not draft Bjoern Werner. I love Bjoern but he's not a high motor player. Sheldon Richardson on the other hand plays extremely fast from snap to whistle. That's what Gus Bradley will want to bring to his defense, an emphasis on every player playing fast and flying to the football no matter how far you are from the ball. I do not think they're ready to give up on Blaine Gabbert yet, but I could imagine this pick being Geno Smith since Shahid Khan's son Tony (whom I've been told by someone connected with one of the team's executives actually runs the team) is so into the moneyball statistical approach to the game and above all Geno Smith has fantastic statistics. Even so, I think this is going to boil down to Gus Bradley's preferences for what he wants to establish on defense and he may win the day convincing them they shouldn't reach for a quarterback that should actually be a 2nd round pick. 03. Oakland Raiders - DE Bjoern Werner, FLorida State Comment: Part of me wants to peg Geno Smith here for all the same reasons the Raiders overdrafted Terrelle Pryor in the Supplemental Draft. Al Davis is gone, but his son remains. It's hard to get a read on how much his son will take after his father in terms of meddling with the personnel side of things, and preferences on types of players. But in the last draft I definitely noticed the mark of a different hand steering the ship, and so tentatively I'm going to run with that observation. Werner should actually do well at the Combine and I could see the front office presenting his value to Al's son in such a way that he comes to view Bjoern as a guy his father would've loved anyway. 04. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah Comment: It's true that Chip Kelly is an offensive guy and naturally people are going to want to plug in an offensive player to build with at this spot. But lost in all the speculation about which QB Kelly will like in this Draft is the simple fact that he's going to like both Nick Foles AND Michael Vick, for different reasons. Kelly always spoke EXTREMELY highly of Nick Foles when he had to face him at Arizona. And where is it written that the Eagles will definitely ditch Vick? He would seem like the perfect quarterback to run the kinds of things Kelly would want to run. I think Kelly settles on Vick, Foles and Darron Thomas as his quarterbacks. He'll want to take a year to see how all the existing players perform in his offense before he decides how he needs to re-vamp it. In the meantime Chip's offensive style absolutely demands that you have a tremendous amount of depth on your defensive line, because they can wear out easily. That's where Lotulelei comes in. 05. Detroit Lions - OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma Comment: Both Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson had EXCELLENT Senior Bowl showings. Not just good, but excellent. But, the Detroit Lions coached the South squad. They coached Lane Johnson. Jeff Backus has been begging to be relieved of duty for ages. Everyone seems ready to peg them for replacing Cliff Avril at this pick and I'm sure Bjoern Werner will look tempting to them, but A) they could keep Avril after all, and B) this class lends itself toward finding a one-dimensional pass rusher like Avril later in the draft. I think Dee Milliner would certainly tempt the Lions here as they need to fix the secondary, however I think they could decide to try for a corner later in the Draft. Lane Johnson is a physical freak at 6062 and 305 lbs, with 35 inch arms and 10 inch hands, set to run in the 4.8 range at the Combine. He absolutely dominated the Senior Bowl. None of the defensive ends there could come even close to beating him. He looked like he was toying with them, and best of all he got after them and pulverized them in the ground game in a way that had to make coaches drool. 06. Cleveland Brown - DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU Comment: This is a pet theory. Michael Lombardi was part of the Oakland Raiders program where physical impressiveness was absolutely key to the philosophy. Last year, he was very big on Chandler Jones (believe he actually deemed him the best defensive player in the Draft). Part of the latter had to be the fact that he seems to lap up whatever Bill Belichick seems to be thinking. But another part of it could be that Chandler was just a monstrously sized yet special overall athlete. With the 3-4 defense being installed in Oakland, I think he'll look at Ezekiel Ansah as very Chandler Jones-like, a guy he can pair up with Jabaal Sheard. People are too distracted with the quarterback position. Lombardi was not a buyer of Weeden but a lot of it had to do with age. I think both he and Chudzinski would be willing to give Brandon a try for another year. 07. Arizona Cardinals - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia Comment: Back when Rod Graves was the General Manager and Ken Whisenhunt the Head Coach, I'd have almost been ready to predict them making Mike Glennon the first quarterback taken in the 2013 NFL Draft. He's right up their alley. Graves and Whisenhunt are gone, but the guy who replaces Graves was part of the front office when they displayed their preferences at that position for physical impressiveness. I think it's enough that they'll like Geno Smith and draft him if he makes it to their pick. The next most likely would be Lane Johnson, as they should feel some desperation at the left tackle position. 08. Buffalo Bills - QB Matt Barkley, USC Comment: I have probably set off the beginning of a dratnik-consensus that Barkley is taken by the Buffalo Bills at #8 overall. I don't know why nobody thought to look for Doug Marrone's comments on Barkley from the two times Marrone's Orangemen played the Trojans in 2011 and 2012. Everyone is caught up in thinking Marrone will go for Nassib. That's way, way, way too simplistic. I don't think Doug Marrone is in a hurry to declare to the world that he went 10-10 in Big Least conference play with an NFL franchise caliber quarterback leading the charge. If you buy Doug Marrone, it's on the basis of him doing the best he could with what he had at Syracuse. Having had an NFL franchise caliber quarterback for four years would kind of put a little bit of a mark on that picture. Yet, there are lessons to be learned from his preference for Nassib and even to an extent Greg Paulus. From those lessons, I speculated that Marrone would really like Barkley. Then I decided to see if Marrone had commented on him before, you know, since Barkley played Marrone's team twice and went 49 of 69 for 511 yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT. Sure enough, Marrone gushed about Barkley in his pre-game media teleconference. He talked about how upset he was when Barkley decided to return to school. He talked about what makes him a great QB for the NFL. He even went so far as to say that Matt Barkley, not Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin, would have been the #1 QB in the Draft had he declared. So...yeah. This pick is Matt Barkley. IF he's still available. 09. New York Jets - LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia Comment: With Darrelle Revis possibly traded, the Jets very well could go with Dee Milliner here. But something tells me things may not be as far gone with Revis as everyone thinks. The public tends to think of things in absolutes, e.g. "The Jets HAVE to trade Darrelle Revis, now" when in reality it's not that way. Revis is not going to hold out. There are clauses in his contract that pretty specifically prevent that. So if the Jets do not find takers in the market willing to pay the right price (and I'm not sure they will) then they could very well go into battle with Revis on their side once more. If the Jets could go into the 2012 season with Santonio Holmes after everything that had happened in 2011 and during that off season, this will be nothing compared with that. The Jets have added an all-around defensive end in Quinton Coples to the defensive front last year and I think they will like that pick. But now they need to look at the linebackers and more pure pass rush. Jarvis Jones would make a natural replacement for the foundering Calvin Pace. 10. Tennessee Titans - FS Kenny Vaccaro, Texas Comment: I think the Tennessee Titans are set up to surprise people with whoever they pick. In fact, they're the team I would peg as most likely to trade down, probably with a team looking to pick up Eric Fisher of Central Michigan. Eric would seem an obvious shoe-in for the San Diego Chargers' pick at #11 overall, and I think he would be the final of a group of three offensive tackles all viewed to be franchise caliber left tackles. And it isn't just Eric Fisher that could be a trade up target. Dee Milliner is the consensus best corner in the Draft and with him still on the board here, and the Dolphins picking at #12 overall, a team could look to jump in front of Miami to take Dee. If the Titans are forced to sit at this spot, then need would have them choosing between a very non-traditional group: Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert or Kenny Vaccaro. I think they would steer toward Vaccaro. But I could toss a coin on this one, to be honest. 11. San Diego Chargers - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan Comment: This pick is way too easy and obvious, which means that in all likelihood Eric Fisher could already be gone. The Chargers do not have anyone protecting Phil Rivers' blind side and that cost them dearly in 2012. Eric Fisher showed up at the Senior Bowl and caught every single evaluator's attention with his sturdy, smooth, powerful and athletic line play. He did not win every single matchup. I saw Datone Jones get the better of him at least one time and I saw Alex Okafor get the better of him two times, and then during the game I saw Cornelius Washington get the better of him one time (they only matched up about 3 times). However, the mobility was evident, the technique was evident, the heavy-boned solidness was evident. He belongs in the top tier of offensive tackles and should be a franchise caliber guy. 12. Miami Dolphins - CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State Comment: I know that it looks like Dee Milliner is still available but the fact of the matter is I think the Tennessee Titans, and to an extent the New York Jets, are in prime position for a trade down. Teams will be anxious to capture the last of the three franchise left tackles ahead of the San Diego Chargers' pick, and they may also be anxious to capture the best cornerback in the Draft ahead of the Miami Dolphins' pick. So where I have Kenny Vaccaro going in the top 10 to the Tennessee Titans, in reality I'm just matching the player and team and I think that #10 overall pick will be a trade down and involve a team either taking Eric Fisher ahead of the Chargers, or Dee Milliner ahead of the Dolphins. But which? I don't think it matters, because if the Chargers have Fisher stolen out from under them, their next likeliest choice is Milliner. So I think Milliner is off the board. Even taking that aside, I believe that Johnthan Banks is going to re-stabilize his stock at the Combine with a very strong showing there. Milliner on the other hand, may not do as well as some think. I think he's the best, but I'm not sure there should be a consensus on that. Every opportunity the Dolphins have had, they have talked about how their goal is to add play making to the offense and takeaways to the defense. Johnthan Banks takes front and center position in that aim. He has really good ball skills which he's shown by intercepting about 4 balls a year every year he's been at Mississippi State. He can turn and run, and he covers really well. When Jeff Ireland was on the phone with Ryan Grigson about Vontae Davis, he admitted he is reluctant to part with Davis because that meant he would have to go out and find another corner, which means he would have to draft one high. Richard Marshall was in no way a replacement for Davis, never was intended to be, never will be considered one. Nor Dimitri Patterson. They know they have a hole at that position and they're going to look to fill it with someone that has ball skills.
It's not about what I believe. For myself? No I'm not sure of that. But I think he's perfect for what Gus Bradley wants to install there.
He hurt his shoulder. In no way was he benched. I might agree regarding a corner at 12. Banks does seem to be a really good prospect, though.
Eh, saw he did not start that bowl game for USC and heard some chatter about him being benched? Ah well. A Cb just is not worth that high of a pick, they just aren't Ck, to easily neutralized by an offense, we need guys who impose their will on opponents.
On the subject of trade possibilities, over on WalterFootball.com, supposedly some front office personnel are big fans of Banks. It's something to keep an eye on.
Well, seeing as he went at 10, its gonna be hard to draft him. Maybe we can set up a celebrity Death Match between the two GM's winner takes all. My money would be on Jeff, he'd likely eat the guy after shanking him, just to prove a point.
Interesting. You think Damontre Moore is going to drop out of the top 12? Would he be a choice for us at 12? Also, i think someone is gonna reach for a QB somewhere in the top 5.
The team needs a cornerback much more than it needs a safety. Miami's safety tandem was one of the best in the NFL this past season when you take everything into account. Chris Clemons may not make many big plays, but he also doesn't allow them. IMO, Miami has a better chance of getting a starting caliber cornerback at 12 and a starting caliber wide receiver at 42 than the other way around. I'm not sure where this idea that the cornerback position has been devalued comes from. If anything, the proliferation of the spread concepts in the NFL put even more emphasis on getting guys that can cover and make plays on the ball in the secondary. Look at Seattle. Their defense goes because of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Those two outside allow them to do a lot of things defensively to generate pressure and such.
Disagree, a Cb is just to easily neutralized, a FS who is a ball hawk simply has to be dealt with as they can make things happen. IMO, a "lock down Cb" is right next to "a all pro LT" in the ideas that once worked, but no longer matter category
I have a feeling his change of direction times in the shuttle and especially thw cones will disabuse teams of the idea he'd a possibility at OLB in a 3-4. That leaves 4-3 teams looking for him to start at DE.
I agree here. Right now (as you said it's very early), if I had to handicap who the Dolphins were going to pick at 12, Banks would have the greatest odds. CB seems to me to be Ireland's favorite position. At the very least he sees it as one of the most important positions on the field (he has said so multiple times). And right now the Dolphins don't really have any quality corners. Also, the value adds up as Banks will be one of the top players regardless of position available at 12. Many people will scream they should go WR, but I think come draft day they will have signed a good WR or traded for one and there will be plenty of value in rounds 2 and 3 at that position.
I think trading down has to be looked at very seriously, Banks, Milliner, Allen, I just don't wanna spend that much on a corner or a receiver that we can probably get a bit later..if it isn't one of those stud D'ends then lets just trade down, get more picks, and select BPA when it's our time..I'm sure we can get Eifert, Allen a bit later while adding a pick.
I just don't like that type of thought. I get what you're saying, but this is the part of the draft where blue chip players are picked. This line of thinking is what allowed the Dolphins to move down and pass on Earl Thomas and JPP. There's going to be risk with the guys you find in that 10-15 range, but you also will most likely get really nice upside. You move down and you just don't know who's going to be there. If the Dolphins were low on picks, I could maybe get on board with that idea, but they're well stocked. They need to stick to their board and take a player who could be an impact guy.
I just realized that Detroit coaches actually coached the South not the North. That's enough to change my #5 pick from Eric Fisher to Lane Johnson. I'd have Fisher going #11 to the Chargers.
Your approach is one way to look at it. The other way would be that yeah we have a lot of picks but we dont necessarily have to use them all. We can trade back up in the late 1st from the 2nd or we can trade up from the 3rd to the 2nd to keep getting those top 60 players. We can trade an extra pick this year that we may pick up and move up a round next year in a deal. There's a few ways we can approach this and not for nothing if we are going to sign a couple of high profile FA's youre going to want to have as many cheap rookie contracts on the books as we can if we can find good players. Keep your options open imo and dont lock in unless there's value there. My viewpoint is that if you need passrushers or a QB those are the players you look primarily at in the top half of round 1. Those to me are the spots that carry the most impact. If theres a pass rusher around at 12 whether its Moore Werner, Ansah, Jordan...we need to be looking there faster then anywhere else. That compensates for a mediocre Cb easier then anything else.
The stipulation was IF the D'ends are off the board.. I don't believe there is anything ever wrong with wanting to trade down and accumulate picks if your recognize your needs relative to where the value in the draft is, if your a good evaluator of talent you want the extra picks, (for which you can use to trade up) and because you know the work you've put in, and the confidence that your the better evaluator of talent.
CB has value At 12, positionally. It would be weird to see in the top five, and usually there is only one in the top ten, but there are often many first round corners once you get past the tenth pick. Seems like the teens always have a few DBs.
That might be my inclination. (I have Vacarro and Dion Jordan as my top choices there). Those are just the two biggest impact positions on defense right now. I see several second and third round CBs who will probably end up having as much impact as any CB we could get at #12.
The player I'm comparing Jordan to, as for when he came out of college, is our very own Jason Taylor. Jordan is a physical clone of Taylor when he was leaving Akron in nearly every way. If you could find a scouting report on Taylor leading into the 1997 draft, IMO, it would fit Jordan nearly word for word.
I also see a few safeties that we could get in the 2nd or 3rd who are as impressive as Vacarro to me.
Exactly. But keep in mind Taylor went in what, the 3rd or 4th round? If I were playing a certain defense I'd not hesitate to take Dion Jordan fairly high. I don't think Miami necessarily plays that kind of defense.
I said this before, he's Jason on steroids, he can do things athletically that Jason could never do, and he can do them already..now Jason was an instinctual smart football player, so Dions got to prove that, but he's absolutely on my board at 12.. Him and Sheldon are tearing me up inside..
I see what your saying, I think, I mean if your not willing to move this player all over the damn field then there's no sense?
Plus, QBs can still make plays with their feet when coverage is good, especially if the corners are in man with their backs to the line.
The amount of times I watched Andrew Luck/Russel Wilson escape the hands of our DTs and even Wake made me realize this alone... I won't fault Jeff Ireland for grabbing as many athletic DEs as he can. Rushing the passer is such a priority, especially in today's NFL. I can't remember which poster it was, but they broke down all the plays where Luck was running free. I can't fist bump him enough because he understands the same frustration.
