2014 Super Bowl Odds - Miami Dolphins

I love the idea of re-posting the new odds and seeing the changes. Can you post the new odds in the main original post, on a separate line (not deleting the previous odds), next to the explanation of the roster move that caused it?

That way we would have a FULL HISTORY of each move, and how it affected the Phins chances in the eyes of the guys who threw the light switch off in N'Awlins.

 

Not really middle of the pack. Only 8 teams have lower odds than the Dolphins according to the MGM odds.

 

I'll take that bet.

I think the number will rise to 40-1 but won't get better than that.

 

Such little faith in Jeffy

 

I won't even make it about Jeff Ireland.

I think they're just looking at the same things I'm looking at...that despite all this talk about all these picks and money that the Dolphins have available to try and get better, they've got enough liabilities to cancel out those assets to the point where it's questionable whether they'll be able to get better (realistically).

As such, we are picking #12 overall this year but these odds seem to suggest we'll be picking #9 or #10 next year, which means we'll have gotten slightly worse.

 

Daniel Tosh tweet was amazing, "What's a million times 50???!!!!!!" https://twitter.com/danieltosh/status/298183089589477377/photo/1

Also if anyone goes to Vegas to place bets, Place them at Casino not on the strip. There will be casinos that they are 60 to 1 or even 75 to 1

 

Pretty sure he was being sarcastic, lol.

 

$20,000 on the Phins!

 

What many fail to realize is that more goes into it than just 40-50-1...Vegas accounts for the volume of expected wagers aswell as skill level.

Case in point? Jets 30-1.

 

Things have changed a lot in the last 20 years. I remember in the early 90s, these early lines would sometimes have teams 100,000-1 or more. I remember one Pats or Jets team that had gone 2-14 the previous season starting at 1,000,000-1.

 

Yeah, more people put money on miami, the worse the odds get, worse i mean for betters.

 

By September we should be 40-1.Yippee.

 

and that worries me. Can Philbin survive that ? If Philbin gets canned because Ireland didn't get him enough talent, it will really make me lose what little faith I have in Ross.

I really, really like Philbin, and it will be a real tragedy if he gets canned. Ross will have undercut and hurt his own team because of his insistence on keeping Ireland. And that sets us up for a new coach, new philosophy and at least 4 more years of "rebuilding". We will be entering Detroit Lions Matt Millen territory there.

 

I think if the Dolphins underperform next year the most likely outcome is that Jeff Ireland is scapegoated and canned, and Joe Philbin is given a new General Manager.

 

Awsi Dooger always has the best perspective on this Vegas odds stuff.

He made some good points recently. He said that by the time the odds are bettable, you never see huge odds anymore because the Casinos don't want to take the risk. They've found that charging 200-1 odds on a team will draw just as many bets as charging 50-1. You also see Casinos use any excuse to tighten a team's odds (e.g. bring Miami from 50-1 down to 40-1), but they will almost never widen a team's odds the other way. The Super Bowl futures odds are considered the most inexact of the Vegas lines, and the only useful thing to pay attention to is where the teams rank in relation to one another.

To Awsi's point about Casinos looking to keep the odds tight...if you fraction up the odds and sum them, they add up to 181.4%. If they weren't taking any juice off the top they would add to 100%.

I believe that once Miami executes its free agency, their odds will go 50-1 to 40-1. As Awsi says, they will use any excuse to tighten odds because it alleviates the Casinos' liabilities without necessarily discouraging betting from happening. Miami is set to have an active free agency, one way or another. They're going to sign at least one big free agent. They're going to re-sign some key people. It's enough "headline" value to move the odds.

But they won't go below 40-1, IMO.

 

I'm going to say 40-1 and if I lean any differently it's more 45-1.

 

I'd rather lay 40-1 they don't make it. They won a lot of close games this season. Kinda like Miami in 2008. They'll be on the list of teams to fade next year, along with the Ravens.

 

I think people will be underwhelmed by our FA signings TBH. Our cap space is blown out if proportion bc we have so many guys with expiring contracts. Well spend most if it retaining or replacing guys we are set to lose, with perhaps 1 major addition and a few role players. My wish list would be Long, Starks, Smith, Bowe, Clemons, Delanie Walker and Steven Jackson. That's close to 40 million in salary w the rest reserved from rookies and other teams' cap casualties.

INOW FA ain't gonna put us into contention, it'll be smart signings, good drafting, and most of all, continued development from the guys who are already on the roster that'll make the difference.

 

i would bet the odds are 50000 to 1 thatJeff Ireland screws up the offseason for us but despite the wart we have in the front office I think 50 -1 odds would be fair

 

How are the Eagles ahead of us?